Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of banks lowering medium to long-term deposit rates reflects market expectations for future interest rates and is part of banks' efforts to manage liability costs effectively [2][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - Banks, including China Merchants Bank, have reduced deposit rates, with some experiencing "inversion" in fixed deposit rates [2]. - As of 2024, China Merchants Bank offers 1-year and 2-year deposit rates of 1.60% and 1.70%, respectively, with a minimum deposit of 1,000 yuan, while 3-year and 5-year rates are 1.50% and 1.55% with a lower minimum deposit of 50 yuan [1]. Group 2: Net Interest Margin (NIM) Performance - In 2024, the net interest margin for nine listed banks decreased, with China Merchants Bank maintaining a leading position at 1.98%, despite a decline of 0.17 percentage points from the previous year [3][8]. - The bank's management indicated that the trend of narrowing interest margins may continue, but they aim to improve the extent of the decline compared to the previous year [3][9]. Group 3: Deposit Growth and Cost Management - As of the end of 2024, China Merchants Bank's total customer deposits reached 9.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.54% year-on-year, with retail deposits growing by 15.43% [4][5]. - The average cost of customer deposits decreased from 1.62% to 1.54%, although retail deposit costs increased to 1.44% [5][6]. Group 4: Loan Performance and Asset Structure - China Merchants Bank's retail loan balance grew by 6.06% to 3.58 trillion yuan, while corporate loans increased by 11.58% to 2.59 trillion yuan [10][13]. - The average yield on retail loans fell to 4.58%, down from 5.02% the previous year, reflecting a broader trend of declining asset yields [10][11]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategy - The bank plans to increase customer deposits by 7%-8% in 2025, focusing on managing high-cost deposits and promoting low-cost deposits [9]. - Management emphasized the importance of retail banking as a competitive advantage and aims to adapt to changing economic conditions through innovative product offerings [15].

昨天说过，今晚要继续加更一篇，主要是想解读一下本周三个很有热度的新闻。 一是周五晚上，金融监管总局发布的通知， 允许保险公司对万能险产品，调整最低保证利率 ，这对保险行业，有很深远的影响； 二是上周，交易商协会发布的， 债券估值业务自律指引 ，对银行理财、信用债、以及整个资管市场，都会有很明确的连锁反应； 三是这两天，媒体在炒的，全球最大的主权基金—— 挪威养老基金，一季度炒股"巨亏"的消息 ，我们还原一下新闻背后的实际逻辑，并谈谈对 投资的启发。 废话不多说，直接步入主题。 另外，提醒一下， 昨晚的文章里有抽奖 ，抽价值200多块的星巴克杯子，一共20个，现在是600多条评论，中奖概率在3%左右，明天一早9点截止，现在 还能去留个言，做大分母。 ...... 一、保险行业要变天了吗？ 新闻是这样的，我直接贴一下图。 我们不是专门聊保险的账号，之前也说过，这个账号不会向大家推销任何的保险产品，所以，这个通知，对大家销售或者购买具体的保险，有什么影响， 不是我们要聊的重点， 主要和大家谈一些，更加宏观的事实 ，分以下几点。 1、"万能险"这个名字，一开始就是翻译错的 。万能险的英文名，叫"Universal L ...

我这倒也不是标题党，而是来自微众银行（腾讯旗下的）的消息，这周其公告，从4月29日，也就是下周二开始，全面下调定存利 率，具体调整情况，我做了一个表格，如下。 | 期限 | 原存款利率 | 下调后的利率 | 降幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1年 | 1.80% | 1. 60% | 20bps | | 2年 | 2% | 1. 60% | 40bps | | 3年 | 2% | 1. 60% | 40bps | | 5年 | 2% | 1. 60% | 40bps | 也就是说，1年期定存下调0.2%，2年及以上的定存利率，下调0.4%，有四块可以讨论的点。 第一，一次性下调 幅度 非常大 ，在20%左右； 第二，和大行的定存利率 价差 缩小 ，我看了一眼招行的存款挂牌利率，1、2、3、5年，分别是1.1%、1.2%、1.5%、1.55%，也就 是说，3年和5年的定存利率，几乎拉平了； 第三，收益率曲线极度扁平，1年到5年都是同一个报价，这个价格隐含的假设是，认为未来5年， 市场利率 会保持不变，或者还会 下行。 2、很多大行，想降存款利率，但像上面微众银行这样的互联网银行， ...

今天群里在传类似下面的这张图，意思是保险的预定利率又要下调了，直接说结论， 这个趋势没错，但具体数字是错的 ， 属于典型的听到风声，就直接让客户抓紧买伞的饥渴营销打法。 我们去年底在《 2025金融行业的十大猜想 》里，提到过，今年，OMO、存款利率、保险预定利率预计都会继续下调， 低 利率时代的趋势将延续 ，其中保险预定利率的下调，主要和行业普遍性的利差损风险有关。 那么，上面这个捕风捉影的消息， 其来源和背景是这样的 。 24年8月的时候，监管首次提出， 保险的预定利率，要和市场利率挂钩的动态调整机制 ，其目的，就是为了防止资产价格 哗啦啦下行的时候，保险公司还继续按照惯性，卖高利率的保单，最后利差越拉越大，不可收拾。 25年1月，监管正式出台了通知，明确了上面这个动态调整机制，具体要怎么执行，触发条件是： 比如在市场利率下行的周期，如果在售产品的最高预定利率， 连续两个季度比 " 研究值 " 高 0.25% 时 （相当于一个阈 值），就需要调整利率，并在 2 个月内完成新老产品切换。 举例来说，现在保险行业的最高预定利率，是2.5%，那么，如果连续两个季度的"研究值"，在2.25%以下，则这个最高预定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between interest rates and valuations, emphasizing that not all declining interest rate environments will lead to valuation increases. It outlines two primary methods for valuation enhancement: through accelerated growth or rising ROE, and through a low interest rate environment [3][23]. Group 1: Valuation Enhancement Methods - Valuation can be enhanced through two methods: one is during the accelerated growth or ROE upturn phase, and the other is in a low interest rate environment [3][23]. - In a low interest rate environment, the valuation is influenced by both the numerator (ROE) and the denominator (interest rates and risk premiums) [4][30]. - The relationship between valuation and ROE is positively correlated across countries, while the relationship between valuation and interest rates varies, showing positive, weak, or negative correlations depending on the country [4][31]. Group 2: Scenarios for Valuation Increase - Valuation increases during a declining interest rate phase are most evident in environments of extreme liquidity, where short-term real interest rates drop significantly [7][42]. - If economic recovery is strong, valuations will rise alongside interest rates due to inflation expectations, as seen in the post-pandemic U.S. [8][47]. - In cases of economic deflation, profit and inflation expectations may lead to further declines in valuations, as observed in Japan in the 1990s and Italy in the 2010s [8][47]. Group 3: Valuation and Interest Rate Dynamics - The average PB valuation low point for developed countries is 0.85 times, corresponding to an average interest rate of 2.46% [9][10]. - The low point of valuations is influenced by fundamentals, while the low point of interest rates is determined by monetary liquidity [9][10]. - Countries with strong fundamentals (e.g., U.S., Japan, Germany, France) tend to see valuation increases in sectors with comparative advantages, such as consumer discretionary, technology, and healthcare [12][47]. Group 4: A-share Market Valuation Potential - As interest rates decline, the extent of valuation increases diminishes, indicating a reduced sensitivity of valuations to interest rates [15][17]. - For example, when interest rates are at 4%, a 20% decline leads to a 16.9% increase in valuation; however, at 1.6%, the same decline results in only a 9.5% increase [15][16]. Group 5: Sector Performance During Interest Rate Changes - In the A-share market, sectors such as utilities and coal saw valuation increases when interest rates fell from 3.2% to 2.2%, while sectors driven by economic conditions, like TMT, performed better when rates fell from 2.2% to 1.6% [17][20]. - The performance of stable assets may not yield excess returns in the later stages of declining interest rates, as market dynamics shift towards growth-oriented assets [17][20].

分析师：程秉哲 登记编号：S0890522110001 分析师：黄浩 登记编号：S0890524110001 现金增利基金策略 本周取得0.027%的收益，优于比较基准中证货币基金指数，超额收益不断累积，策略运行以 来累计获得超额收益0.371%。 海外权益配置基金策略 本周收跌，录得收益-1.537%，近期美股担忧情绪持续升温，对于部分经济数据选择朝 着利空方向进行交易，交易美国经济滞涨风险，同时受到"对等关税"冲击，海外市场持续震荡下行。中长期来 看，美国经济未出现显著衰退转向，在人工智能带来上游设备端和下游应用端的增量，其他行业科技公司新品 层出不穷，美股有望在快速科技增长以及短期风险事件消化后确定性提高的共同作用下，开启新一轮行情，全 球化投资仍具有较强的分散化配置价值 。 投资要点 本周特朗普宣布实施"对等关税"，加税力度大幅超出市场预期，周四全球市场发生较大波动，A股市场也在此 冲击下有所回落。常青低波组合在震荡环境中依旧保持韧劲，回撤幅度相对可控，我们在策略上的防御观点也 在持续积累超额收益。海外同样受到关税的影响，在原本已经计价部分关税预期的基础之上，市场的恐慌和担 忧情绪进一步加剧，美股市场 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that in a low-interest-rate environment, multi-asset strategies have gained popularity among investors as they seek better returns and diversification [1][4]. - The report discusses the concept of asset allocation diversification, highlighting its importance in the current market conditions and how it can mitigate risks while enhancing potential returns [3][4]. - The report suggests that multi-asset strategies are particularly suitable in the current economic landscape, where traditional fixed-income investments may yield lower returns due to sustained low interest rates [1][3]. Group 2 - The report outlines specific methods for achieving asset allocation diversification, which include a mix of equities, fixed income, and alternative investments to optimize portfolio performance [3][4]. - The discussion includes insights from industry experts on the effectiveness of multi-asset strategies in navigating market volatility and achieving long-term investment goals [1][4]. - The report indicates that the shift towards multi-asset strategies reflects a broader trend in the investment community, driven by changing economic conditions and investor preferences [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent adjustment of the predetermined interest rate for life insurance, which has been lowered to 2.5% as of September 2024, and anticipates further reductions to 2.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025. This change is expected to affect premium levels and insurance company asset allocation strategies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Predetermined Interest Rate Adjustment - The predetermined interest rate was officially lowered to 2.5% in September 2024, with expectations of further reduction to 2.0% by the end of 2025. This adjustment is part of a dynamic mechanism linking predetermined rates to government bond yields [2][3]. - The adjustment aims to enhance investment returns for insurance companies and encourage the allocation of insurance funds into the capital market, with a target of 30% of new premiums being invested in the capital market starting in 2025 [2][6]. Group 2: Pricing and Premium Stability - The pricing of life insurance products will increase due to the lower predetermined interest rates, but the "stop-sale" strategy may help stabilize premium volumes, despite a less favorable outlook for the 2025 sales season [3][4]. - The life insurance profit model relies on interest spread, fee spread, and mortality spread, with fair premium pricing being crucial for maintaining balance between present value of premiums and claims [3]. Group 3: Asset Allocation and Investment Strategy - The current asset allocation of life insurance companies is heavily weighted towards fixed-income assets, with bonds constituting approximately 50.2% of total investments as of Q4 2024. The investment yield has been declining, increasing the risk of interest spread losses [4][5]. - Recommendations for asset allocation include increasing equity, alternative, and overseas asset investments while maintaining a dominant position in bond assets, particularly long-duration bonds [5][7]. Group 4: Long-term Implications of Policy Changes - The policy requiring 30% of new premiums to be invested in A-shares is expected to have limited short-term impact on insurance asset allocation but significant long-term effects, potentially increasing equity allocation to around 20% over five years [6]. - While increasing equity investments may reduce solvency ratios, the overall impact on insurance companies' solvency is anticipated to be limited due to the corresponding decrease in equity asset allocation [6].

行业研究丨深度报告丨房地产 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 从国际经验来看，地产量价对利率方向较为敏感，但实际利率比名义利率更重要，核心城市和 核心房产并不一定具备绝对阿尔法。中国全局房价逐步接近均衡区间，但结构性压力仍存，当 前已进入"低利率时代"，名义利率持续降至新低，但实际利率仍偏高，政策仍需持续发力，今 年有望进入超常规区间，后续关注基准利率下降幅度、房贷利率减点以及通胀预期修复等进展。 [Table_Title] 低利率时代的不动产定价规律 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 宋子逸 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490522080002 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 22 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title2] 低利率时代的不动产定价规律 [Table_Summary2] 如何界定低利率时代？ 低利率是对经济基本面的反馈，但经济修复的路径并非坦途，深度降息是走出困境的必要条件 之一，低 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The low interest rate environment poses challenges for insurance companies, leading overseas insurers to extend bond durations and increase equity allocations. In the short term, China's bond market shows a slight shortage of long-term supply, and the current liability structure of insurers is sensitive to net assets, which poses some resistance to increasing equity allocations. However, in the medium to long term, with ongoing policy support for insurance capital market entry and improvements in capital market infrastructure, the willingness and ability of insurers to allocate equity will gradually increase, alleviating investment pressure [2][9][10]. Summary by Sections Impact of Interest Rates on Insurance Companies - The valuation of A-share listed insurance companies is generally aligned with interest rates. Since 2011, the valuation of insurance companies has maintained a consistent relationship with bond yields, with only a few exceptions during specific periods [17][19]. - The decline in interest rates can lead to increased risks of interest spread losses due to duration mismatches, negatively impacting net assets and the intrinsic value of insurance companies [6][24]. Overseas Insurance Asset Allocation Strategies - U.S. insurers have significantly increased their equity allocations from 9.9% in 1980 to 30.8% in 2021, making equities the second-largest asset class after bonds. Additionally, the duration of bonds held by U.S. insurers has been extended, with the proportion of bonds with a remaining term of over 20 years increasing by 4.8 percentage points since 1997 [7][44][57]. - Japanese insurers have also extended bond durations and increased overseas asset allocations, with the overseas allocation rising from 12.8% in 2008 to 25% in 2023 [68]. - South Korean insurers have gradually increased overseas asset allocations from 2.8% in 1999 to 11.6% in 2022, while the bond proportion has decreased from 57.9% in 2013 to 46.2% in 2022 [8][77]. Policy Support for Equity Allocation - Policies encouraging long-term capital market entry are being implemented, aiming to enhance the willingness and ability of insurers to allocate equity. The goal is to have 30% of new insurance premiums invested in the stock market annually, which could potentially increase equity allocation by approximately 295.7 billion yuan if the proportion is adjusted to 60% [9][10][9].