Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warns that the bond market faces a risk of "collapse" if the U.S. government fails to control the growing federal deficit, sparking widespread discussion and varied reactions [1] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - Dimon's comments reflect the sentiment on Wall Street during a period of significant turmoil in the bond market, with long-term bond yields rising above 5% in late May, nearing the highest levels since 2007, indicating investor concerns over holding these securities amid increasing budget deficits [2] - Despite a successful auction of 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds on June 12, concerns remain about the demand for long-term bonds from other countries, as rising yields are attributed to a slowing U.S. economy and persistent inflation above expectations [5] - The volatility in long-term bond yields is more pronounced compared to short-term bonds, as long-term bonds typically offer higher interest rates due to their longer repayment periods, leading to increased investor anxiety regarding U.S. Treasury securities [5] Group 2: Global Debt Concerns - The global debt level has reached alarming heights, with the International Institute of Finance (IIF) projecting a record $324 trillion in global debt by Q1 2025, driven by borrowing from countries like China, France, and Germany [6] - Rising inflation and interest rates make it increasingly difficult to sustain such high levels of borrowing, with concerns that continued high bond yields and poor fiscal management could lead to unmanageable debt repayment costs [6][7] - Moody's downgraded the last highest credit rating for the U.S. due to fears that the expanding debt and deficit could undermine the country's status as a primary destination for global capital [7] Group 3: Future Uncertainties - The impact of high borrowing costs on long-term bonds issued during a period of ultra-low interest rates remains uncertain, with rising yields causing unpredictable consequences in the bond market [8] - The ongoing inflation post-pandemic and potential trade policies could further exacerbate inflationary pressures, leading to higher bond yields, while also risking economic activity and complicating monetary policy decisions for the Federal Reserve [8]

Group 1 - The recent 30-year Treasury bond auction by the U.S. Treasury raised $22 billion, with a yield of 4.844%, which is approximately 1.5 basis points lower than the market level before the auction, indicating strong demand despite slightly lower foreign participation [1] - Following the auction, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond dropped to 4.839%, down from above 4.9% at the market open, suggesting that successful auctions typically lead to higher bond prices and lower market rates [1] - Foreign investors purchased 65.2% of the 30-year bonds, slightly below the average of 67.4% from the last six similar auctions, while the 10-year bond auction saw a foreign participation rate of 70.6%, lower than the average of 73.4% [1] Group 2 - Analysts noted that the measurement of foreign demand may have technical biases, as "indirect bidders" are often seen as representatives of foreign investors, but some foreign buyers place orders directly through U.S. banks, which are not included in the "indirect bidder" statistics [2] - A more detailed report on investor classification will be released on June 24, which will provide a clearer picture of overseas demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [2] - Despite the subdued foreign demand, "direct bidders," primarily domestic institutions, showed strong interest, supporting the recent 10-year and 30-year bond auctions amid increasing U.S. fiscal deficits and debt supply [2]

Core Viewpoint - The yields on UK government bonds have experienced a significant decline, indicating a shift in market sentiment and potential implications for investment strategies [1] Group 1: Yield Changes - The yield on the UK 10-year government bond decreased by 7.6 basis points, reaching a new low of 4.476% [1] - The 2-year UK bond yield fell by 4.8 basis points, hitting a new low of 3.865% [1] - The 30-year UK bond yield dropped by 8.4 basis points, reaching a new low of 5.193% [1] - The 50-year UK bond yield decreased by 7.2 basis points, reaching a new low of 4.523% [1] Group 2: Yield Spread - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year UK bonds decreased by 2.968 basis points, reaching a new low of +60.766 basis points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced a decline following the release of the CPI inflation data, indicating market reactions to inflation expectations and economic indicators [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **10-Year Treasury Yield**: The yield fell by 4.95 basis points to 4.4203%, reaching a daily high of 4.5037% before the CPI data release and dropping to a low of 4.4045% post-release [1] - **2-Year Treasury Yield**: This yield decreased by 6.66 basis points to 3.9515%, hitting a daily high of 4.0433% before the CPI data and subsequently falling to a low of 3.9369% [1] - **Other Treasury Yields**: The 3-year yield dropped by 7.22 basis points, the 5-year yield fell by 6.49 basis points, and the 7-year yield decreased by 6.03 basis points, reflecting a general downward trend across various maturities [1]

Group 1 - The UK 10-year government bond yield increased by 1.0 basis points, reaching 4.552%, and peaked at 4.607% before the US CPI data release [1] - The 2-year UK bond yield decreased by 0.7 basis points, settling at 3.913%, with a high of 3.961% prior to the US CPI data [1] - The 30-year and 50-year UK bond yields rose by 2.3 and 2.8 basis points respectively [1] Group 2 - The 2/10 year UK bond yield spread increased by 1.670 basis points, now at +63.734 basis points [1]

Group 1 - Eurozone government bond yields fell after the release of U.S. data [1] - The yield on Germany's 10-year government bonds increased by 0.5 basis points to 2.53% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's 10-year bond yield has dropped to its lowest level since November, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment and market conditions [1] Group 1 - The decline in the 10-year bond yield suggests increased demand for Indonesian government bonds, which may reflect improved economic outlook or investor confidence [1] - This decrease in yield could lead to lower borrowing costs for the government, potentially stimulating economic growth [1] - The bond market's performance may influence foreign investment flows into Indonesia, impacting the overall financial landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - The simultaneous release of the $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to disrupt the current calm in the U.S. bond market, potentially leading to significant volatility [1] Group 1: Auction Demand and Market Sentiment - Investor focus is on the demand for upcoming auctions, particularly due to concerns that trade policies may deter foreign buyers, who are typically significant holders of U.S. Treasuries [2] - The recent poor performance of the 20-year Treasury auction, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46 and a yield of 5.047%, reflects growing investor anxiety [2] - Recent 10-year Treasury auctions have shown robust performance, with foreign investor participation above average, indicating that inflation concerns may outweigh trade worries [2] Group 2: Inflation Expectations - Economists predict a 0.2% month-over-month increase in CPI and a 2.4% year-over-year increase, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year [3] - There are concerns that any unexpected rise in inflation could unsettle investors, posing risks to the labor market and economic growth [3] Group 3: Potential Risks from Auction Performance - A poor performance in the bond auction combined with higher-than-expected inflation could lead to a sharp increase in bond yields, representing a dual threat to the market [4] - The upcoming auction of long-term bonds is crucial for gauging investor interest in U.S. Treasuries amid rising debt and deficit concerns [5] - Experts warn that continued poor auction results could signal deeper issues in the market, with rising yields being a significant concern [5]

两年期德债收益率跌1.7个基点，报1.847%，日内交投于1.866%-1.842%区间；30年期德债收益率跌4.2 个基点，报2.970%。 2/10年期德债收益率利差跌2.318个基点，报+67.458个基点。 周二（6月10日）欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率下跌4.4个基点，报2.523%，全天处于震荡下跌状 态，整体交投于2.564%-2.516%区间。 ...

Group 1 - European government bonds opened mostly flat, with the 2-year German government bond yield unchanged at 1.87% [1] - The 10-year and 30-year government bond yields fell by 1 basis point to 2.56% and 3% respectively [1] - Traders are awaiting the German 2030 bond auction and comments from European Central Bank officials Villeroy and Rehn [1] Group 2 - Traders have increased bets on a rate cut by the Bank of England, now expecting a 45 basis point cut by the end of the year, up from 41 basis points on Monday [1] - Data shows that the number of employed individuals in the UK has seen its largest decline since 2020, with wage growth slowing [1]