Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing turmoil in the global bond market, particularly focusing on Japan's long-term debt issues and the implications for both Japanese and U.S. bonds, highlighting structural fiscal challenges that remain unresolved [2][9]. Group 1: Japanese Bond Market - On May 27, Japanese bonds rebounded due to speculation that the Japanese Ministry of Finance might reduce the issuance of ultra-long bonds, leading to a drop in yields to three-week lows [2][5]. - However, on May 28, the auction for 40-year Japanese bonds was seen as a "canary in the coal mine," with the bid-to-cover ratio falling to its lowest level since July 2024, indicating weak demand despite previous short-term positive signals [4][6]. - The yield on 40-year Japanese bonds rose by 8 basis points to 3.365% before the auction, reflecting market concerns about fiscal sustainability [6][11]. Group 2: U.S. Bond Market - The article notes that U.S. Treasury yields also fell on May 27, with the 10-year yield dropping by 6.25 basis points to 4.44%, but the overall outlook remains bearish due to ongoing fiscal concerns [2][9]. - Analysts express that the U.S. bond market is likely to remain in a bear market, driven by fiscal risks exacerbated by recent tax legislation that could add $4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade [9][10]. - The 10-year Treasury term premium is currently near its highest level since 2014, reflecting heightened anxiety over fiscal challenges and political uncertainty [10]. Group 3: Broader Market Implications - The article emphasizes that the structural fiscal issues in both Japan and the U.S. are unlikely to be resolved in the short term, leading to continued volatility in bond markets [2][9]. - The demand for long-term Japanese bonds has weakened significantly, with major traditional buyers like life insurance companies showing reduced interest, contributing to a supply-demand imbalance [10][11]. - Japan's government is projected to face annual debt servicing costs nearing $230 billion over the next four years, raising concerns about the sustainability of its fiscal position [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that significant fluctuations in ultra-long-term bond yields could impact the yields of other bonds [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights the interconnectedness of bond yields within the financial market [1] - The potential volatility in ultra-long-term bonds may lead to broader implications for investment strategies and market stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for Japanese government bonds is under scrutiny as the first ultra-long bond issuance follows a weak auction last week, leading to record-high yields [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The recent auction of 20-year bonds saw the weakest demand in over a decade, causing yields to surge to record levels [1]. - The upcoming issuance of 40-year bonds is pressured by rising long-term borrowing costs in major economies, including the U.S. [1]. - The yield on 30-year and 40-year bonds has reached their highest levels since issuance due to instability in ultra-long bonds [1]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Reactions - Rising yields have diminished investor interest, with few willing to actively bid in upcoming auctions [4]. - The 10-year government bond yield was approximately 1.52%, having reached its highest level since 2008 earlier in March [4]. - Concerns over Japan's fiscal situation have been raised, with the Prime Minister warning that it is worse than Greece's [4]. Group 3: Institutional Responses - Major life insurance companies have reported unrealized losses of about $600 million on domestic bond holdings for the latest fiscal year [4]. - The Bank of Japan is preparing to review its bond purchase plan, responding to concerns from major life insurers and pension funds regarding rising yields [4]. - Sun Life Insurance plans to increase its domestic bond holdings but may delay some investments due to liquidity and price volatility concerns [5]. Group 4: Auction Expectations - Some market participants are optimistic that a strong result from the 40-year bond auction could halt the recent rise in yields [5]. - Factors such as high yield levels, reduced issuance, and investor-friendly auction formats may contribute to a successful auction outcome [5].

Group 1: Money Market Overview - The average daily trading volume and balance in the money market increased in April, with a significant decline in major repo rates and a rebound in the net lending balance of large commercial banks [2][4][5] - The total trading volume in the money market reached 143.1 trillion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 9.4%, with an average daily transaction of 6.5 trillion yuan, up 4.4% month-on-month [2][3] - The average daily balance in the money market rose to 11.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.8% month-on-month, while the net lending balance of large commercial banks increased by 18.4% [5][6] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The total bond issuance in April was 4.96 trillion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 7.8% and a year-on-year increase of 23%, while net financing decreased by 7.9% month-on-month [8] - The trading volume of bonds decreased, with a total of 33 trillion yuan in transactions, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 12.6% [9][10] - Bond yields experienced a downward trend followed by a period of stability, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.62% and 1.81% [11] Group 3: Interest Rate Swap Market - The interest rate swap curve shifted downward overall, with significant decreases in swap rates for various maturities [12][13] - The average daily transaction volume in the interest rate swap market decreased, with a total nominal principal of 3.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a 14.6% month-on-month decline [13]

30年期美债收益率下行5.8bp，报4.989%，10年期债券收益率下行逾7bp，现报4.465%。 ...

不仅是日本生命，其他金融公司也很受伤。例如，农林中金银行（Norinchukin）表示今后会非常谨慎购买日本国债。 索尼生命保险公司（Sony Life Insurance） 也明确提出，如果日本利率继续上涨，它将采取措施，比如出售手里的国债，以避免出现账面亏损。 此前5月20日，日本20年期国债迎来自2012年以来最差拍卖，投标倍数跌至2.5倍，尾差飙升至1987年以来最高水平。这场债券灾难已经引发日本40年期国债 收益率突破历史高点，达3.59%。但5月23日周五，日本长债反弹，30年期日债收益率一度下行10个基点。 不过，这家保险巨头变得更加谨慎。虽然该公司在4月初时还加快了买债节奏，但现在它改口表示，接下来会控制节奏，稳定购买，预计今年账面上的国债 持有量会有所下降。 日本长债暴跌冲击来了，日本最大寿险公司账面巨亏3.6万亿日元。 5月23日周五，日本最大的寿险公司——日本生命保险（Nippon Life）宣布，截至今年3月底，它持有的日本国债已经出现巨额账面浮亏，金额高达3.6万亿 日元（约合250亿美元），比去年同期暴增两倍。 除了账面浮亏，他们上个财年还实际卖掉了一部分债券，确认亏了5000亿日 ...

智通财经APP注意到，本周日本债券收益率飙升，借款人却从中看到了希望，因为更高的利率吸引了信 贷投资者。 包括饮料生产商麒麟控股、三得利控股、房地产公司三井不动产以及印度尼西亚共和国在内的至少10家 发行机构周五涌入市场。他们在今年最繁忙的一个交易日中发行了总额超过5300亿日元(合37亿美元)的 债券，期限主要为10年或更短。 本周日本债券收益率(尤其是最长期限债券的收益率)大幅上升，使得债券发行对投资者更具吸引力，随 后出现了一系列债券交易。由于美国关税动摇了市场，一些借款人推迟或取消了4月份的计划交易后， 现在又重返市场。 大和证券债券银团主管Dai Otsu表示："日本的超长期利率正吸引全球关注。对投资者来说，即使是短 期债券也能提供不错的收益率，而发行机构更倾向于以较低的成本筹集期限较短的资金，而不是锁定较 高的长期利率。" InTouch Capital Markets高级固定收益分析师Kit Lowe表示："一些日本企业可能担心日本央行近期可能 加息。"此外，"日本企业希望赶在周一美国和英国市场休市之前发行债券。" 在日本主权债券收益率(包括30年期和40年期债券收益率)创下纪录之际，债券发行激 ...

美国10年期通胀保值债券（TIPS）收益率略微下降，最新报2.225%。 ...

日本长期债券收益率持续走高，40年期收益率上升6个基点至3.675%，触及2007年开始发行以来的最高 水平。此前日本央行政策委员会委员野口旭表示，不宜干预超长期收益率。日本10年期收益率上升5个 基点至1.565%，20年期收益率上升5.5个基点至2.595%。 ...

日本40年期国债收益率上涨6个基点至3.675%，触及2007年开始发行以来的最高水平。此前日本央行审 议委员野口旭表示，不宜贸然干预以纠正债券收益率走势。 ...