中信证券研报指出，光伏作为当前同质化低价竞争和产能阶段性过剩问题突出的行业，是本轮"反内 卷"的核心阵地。在以市场化为导向的前提下，随着行业回归规范化有序竞争，以及潜在供给侧改革政 策逐步完善和落地，光伏产业链有望迎来价格合理回升和盈利修复，基本面有望得以夯实和改善。同 时，技术创新仍将是光伏走出同质化竞争困境的根本路径，具备产品差异化、市场高端化、制造品牌化 优势的厂商有望迎来业绩率先反转和长期成长。建议重点关注在光伏"反内卷"不断推进下，具备长期竞 争力和量价回升弹性的龙头公司。 ...

Group 1: Photovoltaic Industry - The profitability turning point for BC technology has been reached, with Aishuo achieving a quarterly profit of 130 million and Longi reducing losses by 2.8 billion [2][3] - In the context of widespread losses in the main photovoltaic industry chain, the excess returns of BC technology have been realized, and prices in the industry chain are expected to recover in the second half of the year [3] - Key beneficiaries in the main chain include leading BC companies, while auxiliary materials and equipment related to BC technology are also expected to benefit from increased shipments [4][6] Group 2: Maternal and Infant Industry - The introduction of a 3600 yuan subsidy is expected to stimulate consumption among 20 million families, unlocking a market worth over 100 billion, with the lower-tier market being the biggest winner [2][8] - The expected continuation of local childcare subsidy policies under national guidance will lower family childbirth costs and boost birth intentions, particularly benefiting maternal and infant consumer goods [8][9] - Related beneficiaries include maternal and infant retail channels, product manufacturers, and early education institutions, with specific companies identified as key players in this sector [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the photovoltaic industry [9] Core Insights - The current round of anti-involution in the photovoltaic sector is marked by a more mature and pragmatic approach compared to the previous round, initiated by a series of policy and corporate events starting from late June [3][6] - The government has shown increased attention and clearer communication regarding the photovoltaic industry, with higher-level officials participating in discussions and setting more stringent regulations [6][22] - Companies and industry associations are taking proactive steps to address issues, demonstrating a higher degree of consensus and commitment to compliance with pricing regulations [6][26] Summary by Sections Overview - The report highlights that the current anti-involution measures are more mature and pragmatic than previous efforts, with significant developments in both policy and corporate actions since late June [3][6] Government and Corporate Attitudes - Government officials have publicly emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and improve product quality, with more structured meetings and discussions involving higher-level participants [6][18] - Companies have taken the initiative to propose practical solutions and have shown a stronger commitment to enforcing pricing regulations, leading to a more unified industry response [6][26] Capacity and Production Measures - The focus has shifted from quota-based production limits to a strategy of consolidating capacity, particularly in the silicon material sector, where leading companies are acquiring smaller firms to manage supply and demand effectively [6][28] Pricing Measures - The current measures extend price controls beyond just components to include silicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries, and modules, with a higher baseline price established compared to previous rounds [6][36] - Recent price increases have been observed across all segments, with silicon material prices rising significantly, indicating a recovery towards reasonable levels [7][42] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies significant investment opportunities in silicon materials and battery components, highlighting specific companies such as Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly Energy, and LONGi Green Energy as key players to watch [7][36]

Group 1 - The core theme of the recent meeting held by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association is "production limits to maintain prices," with expectations of a 10%-15% reduction in operating rates in the third quarter [2] - A strict policy against "selling below cost" is being implemented, with third-party audits to investigate low-price sales and measures against companies engaging in substandard product sales [2] - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing supply-demand imbalances, price fluctuations, and performance losses, necessitating the accelerated elimination of excess capacity [2] Group 2 - In the A-share photovoltaic supply chain, 18 out of 21 listed companies reported losses in their first-quarter net profits, with larger manufacturers experiencing more severe losses [2] - Major companies such as Tongwei Co., Ltd. reported a loss of 2.61 billion yuan, while TCL Zhonghuan and Longi Green Energy each faced losses nearing 2 billion yuan [2] - Industry organizations have been actively taking measures, including setting minimum price standards for components and enhancing technical standards to combat vicious competition [2] Group 3 - The photovoltaic industry chain prices are under pressure, with a slight decline observed since June 16, indicating that the effectiveness of production cuts remains to be seen [3][4] - The average transaction price for 183N silicon wafers has dropped to the range of 0.9 to 0.91 yuan, with some quotes falling below 0.9 yuan [4] - The price of polysilicon has also decreased due to weak downstream demand and significant price drops in silicon wafer products, leading to severe price pressure on new contracts [5] Group 4 - The number of new polysilicon contracts has decreased significantly post-exhibition, with major manufacturers struggling to make sales at current low prices [5] - The decline in polysilicon prices is attributed to the rapid drop in downstream silicon wafer prices and the expectation of increased production capacity among polysilicon manufacturers [5] - Currently, all 11 polysilicon production companies are operating at reduced capacity, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" movement in the photovoltaic industry has been elevated to a high level since early July, with initial effects seen in the price transmission along the supply chain, starting from silicon materials [2][3]. Industry Overview - Silicon materials are at the top of the photovoltaic supply chain, leading to price increases in silicon wafers, which then transmit to the midstream solar cell segment. However, the component price feedback is weak, with downstream investors still demanding low prices, creating uncertainty in further price transmission [2][3]. - According to Zhongjin Securities, companies purchasing silicon materials are primarily buying in small batches, with many still in a wait-and-see mode, indicating a lack of large-scale transactions [2]. Challenges in the Supply Chain - The most challenging segments in the supply chain are silicon wafers, solar cells, and components, with new production capacities still being introduced in some areas. The component sector faces difficulties due to the high number of participating manufacturers, requiring a market-driven approach to clear excess capacity, which will take time [3][6]. - A significant reduction in production capacity is necessary, with at least one-third needing to be cleared to address the overcapacity issue effectively [8]. Market Dynamics - The global demand for photovoltaic installations is projected to reach 530 GW in 2024 and 570-630 GW in 2025, while supply capacities for silicon materials, silicon wafers, solar cells, and components are expected to be 339.4 million tons, 1394.9 GW, 1426.7 GW, and 1388.9 GW respectively in 2024 [5][6]. - The price transmission from upstream to downstream is essential; without it, the efforts to combat "involution" will not yield results. A lack of downstream demand will lead to a stalemate, creating a "cold" situation at both ends of the supply chain [6][7]. Product Development and Strategy - The company emphasizes the need for high-performance products to regain pricing power and enhance customer value. Their Neo 3.0 component boasts a 27% battery efficiency and 670W front power, aiming to provide better investment value and quicker cost recovery for customers [7]. - The market will likely see a shift towards high-performance, reasonably priced competitive products as a means to clear excess capacity, driven by policy intervention and market selection [9]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to face more challenges ahead, described as the "darkest hour before dawn," with the success of the "anti-involution" efforts hinging on the determination to restrict new production capacities and the consensus among downstream customers [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in silicon wafer manufacturing, benefiting from supply-side optimization and a reduction in price competition within the photovoltaic industry [7] - The company is expected to turn a profit in the second quarter of 2025, with a forecasted net profit of 0.53 billion, 1.27 billion, and 2.41 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] - The report highlights the company's strategy of integrating cutting-edge slicing resources, which is expected to enhance its marginal profitability due to improved capacity utilization and lower costs [7] - The company is anticipated to benefit from a shift towards a buyer's market in the silicon wafer industry, allowing it to focus on its competitive advantages and enhance its research and development efficiency [7] Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6.184 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 73.19% [1] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 1.461 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 85.28% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is expected to be 1.91 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.00 [1] - The company's total assets are projected to reach 7.752 billion by 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 52.30% [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is showing signs of recovery after a period of downturn, with expectations for a potential turning point supported by recent market data and industry events [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since June 27, the photovoltaic ETF has increased by 13%, with major companies like Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co. also seeing stock price increases despite reporting losses in the first half of the year [1]. - In the first half of 2025, domestic PV installations reached 212.21 GW, a year-on-year increase of 107%, although this was influenced by a rush to install before potential policy changes [4]. - The export performance of PV products has been mixed, with silicon wafer exports down by 7.5%, battery cell exports up by 74.4%, and module exports down by 2.82%. Overall, the export value of PV products has declined for two consecutive years, with a 26% drop in the first half of 2025 [4]. Group 2: Production and Pricing - The production of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules has shown signs of contraction, with polysilicon production at 596,000 tons, down 43.8% year-on-year, and silicon wafer production at 316.0 GW, down 21.4% [3]. - The average prices of key PV products have significantly decreased compared to their peak prices in 2020, with declines of 88.3% for polysilicon, 89.6% for silicon wafers, 80.8% for battery cells, and 66.4% for modules, severely impacting profit margins [3]. - In Q1 2025, 31 A-share listed PV companies reported a total net loss of 12.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 274.3% [3]. Group 3: Industry Challenges and Solutions - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) described the industry's development in the first half of 2025 as "difficult" and emphasized the need for capacity reduction and control to address the oversupply situation [2][5]. - The recent seminar held by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association highlighted the importance of reducing energy consumption in polysilicon production, with proposed revisions to energy consumption standards aimed at phasing out outdated capacity [6]. - The industry is exploring new application scenarios, such as integrating PV with hydropower projects, which could create significant market demand and alleviate competitive pressures [9][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The National Forestry and Grassland Administration, along with other agencies, has outlined a plan to add 253 GW of new PV capacity by 2030, which could help mitigate the current oversupply of polysilicon and stimulate demand across the entire supply chain [10][11]. - The combination of capacity control measures and the expansion of application scenarios is expected to bring the PV industry closer to a supply-demand balance, although it has not yet fully emerged from its downturn [12].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the **photovoltaic (PV) industry**, particularly regarding supply-side reforms and price recovery, which are expected to drive significant improvements in profitability for companies involved in silicon material production [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply-Side Reform**: The government is committed to eliminating chaotic low-price competition, which is anticipated to lead to a recovery in silicon material prices to around **60,000 yuan per ton**. This price recovery is expected to enhance the profitability of companies in the sector [1][4]. - **Current Market Trends**: The PV industry has been experiencing an upward trend in polysilicon prices, despite high inventory levels. The expansion of new production capacity is limited due to energy consumption standards, which may restrict future growth in polysilicon production [1][4]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Investors are advised to focus on the silicon material segment, as it is poised for recovery. Other segments such as silicon wafers, batteries, and modules also present good investment opportunities, although their price recovery may be slower [4][5]. - **Long-Term Drivers**: The future growth of the PV industry will be driven by supply-side optimization and technological innovation, supported by government policies aimed at ensuring healthy market competition [5][6]. Additional Important Content - **Institutional Holdings**: As of June 30, institutional holdings in the PV sector are relatively low, indicating a favorable time for investment. The ongoing development of storage platforms and revenue processes is expected to sustain market growth [7]. - **Solid-State Battery Sector**: Attention should be given to the equipment and materials sectors within the solid-state battery field, with significant bidding expected in the second half of the year, particularly from leading companies [8]. - **Traditional Lithium Battery Materials**: The profitability of traditional lithium battery materials is under pressure, but there is potential for recovery as the logic of supply-side reform extends to other new energy sectors [9][10]. - **Hydropower Projects**: The **Yajiang Hydropower Station** project has commenced, attracting significant attention due to its potential impact on the market, particularly in construction materials and electrical equipment sectors [11][13]. Investment Directions - Key investment directions include the **PV anti-involution theme**, the **Yajiang Hydropower Station project**, and **critical pools**. Specific companies in the silicon material sector are expected to benefit from these trends [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report rates the photovoltaic industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [2]. Core Insights - Recent policies reflect the central government's determination to combat "involution" in the photovoltaic sector, aiming to regulate market prices and prevent unfair competition [2]. - The manufacturing standards for polysilicon are being tightened, which is expected to control new capacity additions and promote the elimination of outdated production [2]. - The anticipated implementation of these policies is likely to trigger a new round of price increases in the industry, enhancing profit margins for companies involved [2]. - Recommended companies to watch include those benefiting most from the anti-involution measures, such as GCL-Poly Energy, Daqo New Energy, Tongwei Co., and TBEA [2]. Summary by Sections Policy Developments - The government is actively working on refining standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors and low-price dumping, which is expected to stabilize the market [2]. - The proposed revisions to polysilicon energy consumption standards aim to lower the thresholds for energy efficiency, thus promoting better practices within the industry [2]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the photovoltaic industry is poised for a recovery in pricing due to the recent policy changes, which are expected to eliminate price wars and restore profitability [2]. - The anticipated positive impact of these policies is already reflected in rising prices across the supply chain, indicating a shift in market sentiment [2]. Company Valuations - A table of key companies in the power equipment sector provides insights into their valuations, including metrics such as PB (Price to Book) and PE (Price to Earnings) ratios, highlighting the financial performance expectations for 2025 and beyond [3].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is currently following two main strategies: price increases and production limits, with price increases showing initial effectiveness while production control faces challenges [1][2][3]. Price Trends - Since July, prices across the photovoltaic supply chain have been rising, with silicon wafer prices increasing by at least 4.7% and a cumulative increase of over 20% within the month [2][3]. - The price of polysilicon futures has surged by 60% in July, while the spot price of silicon materials has approached 50,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a monthly increase of over 40% [2][3]. - The price of N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers rose from 0.86 yuan per piece at the beginning of the month to 1.1 yuan per piece, marking a cumulative increase of 27.9% [3]. Regulatory Impact - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have proposed amendments to the Price Law, aiming to clarify standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors and regulate market price order [2][4]. - The proposed amendments are expected to help address "involution" competition within the photovoltaic sector by preventing sales below cost and promoting production capacity consolidation [4]. Market Sentiment and Demand - The current price increases are primarily driven by policy signals rather than substantial changes in supply and demand dynamics, as the output of silicon materials is expected to increase in the third quarter due to the resumption of production by some companies [4][5]. - Analysts predict a decline in global photovoltaic installation demand, with an expected decrease of 5% in new installations in 2025, and a domestic installation growth rate of approximately -10% [5][6]. Financial Health of Companies - The photovoltaic industry has been experiencing widespread losses, with many companies facing negative cash flow. Only a few companies have managed to reduce losses or achieve profitability through overseas markets and product iterations [6]. - The current situation necessitates a focus on production cuts to restore cash flow and prevent further asset depreciation, as the market anticipates a combination of policy implementation and industry self-discipline to help the sector recover [6].