尤众元 九方智投旗下九方金融研究所资深宏观研究员 康健 九方智投旗下九方金融研究所金融研究员 2025年5月12日,中美共同发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》,双方承诺将于2025年5月14日前互相取 消91%的关税,并互相暂停24%的关税90天。美国对华平均关税税率将变为约40%,主要包括特朗普上台前 的加权平均关税税率约10%、芬太尼关税20%和对等关税10%。中国进行对等操作,将对美目前平均关税 税率调整为约30%,包括特朗普上台前的加权平均关税税率15%左右、芬太尼反制关税5%左右和对等反 制关税10%。此外,中国暂停或取消自4月2日起针对美国的非关税反制措施,包括对美出口管制的钐、 钆、铽、镝、镥、钪、钇等7类中重稀土和对部分美国企业的制裁等。同时,中美将建立经贸磋商机制,就 经贸领域各自关切事项保持密切沟通,并开展进一步磋商。 中美双方在综合考虑产业、经济、政治等多方面因素的基础上,达成了重要共识,并发表联合声明。这一 成果源于多重因素:产业层面,美国本土产业链重构受阻,高关税导致供应链断裂,拖累GDP近5个百分点;中 国通过"内循环"与"市场多元化"降低对美依赖,2025年1-4月对东盟出口增1 ...

Group 1: South Africa's Potential in Electric Vehicle Industry - South Africa has the potential to become a global manufacturing hub for key components in the electric vehicle sector, leveraging its rich mineral resources [1][8] - The country aims to collaborate with other African nations to build a regional battery supply chain, contributing to the global green energy transition [1][8] Group 2: Economic Cooperation with China - The expansion of China's domestic demand is significant for South Africa, as even a small percentage of Chinese consumers engaging with South African products could lead to substantial market breakthroughs [2][12] - South Africa is actively seeking to increase the export of its high-quality agricultural products to China, which has a middle-class population exceeding 100 million [2][12] Group 3: Challenges from U.S. Tariffs - The U.S. tariffs on imports, particularly affecting South Africa's automotive and agricultural sectors, pose significant economic challenges [4][5] - South Africa's private sector expresses concern over the tariffs and is urging the government to engage in dialogue with the U.S. to mitigate the impacts [6][7] Group 4: Renewable Energy Collaboration - There is a substantial investment gap in South Africa's electricity infrastructure, creating opportunities for international cooperation in renewable energy projects such as solar and wind [2][8] - The electric vehicle industry is highlighted as a key area for future collaboration, with South Africa's potential to develop a regional battery supply chain [8][11] Group 5: BRICS and Multilateral Cooperation - The BRICS mechanism provides South Africa with a platform to enhance its economic cooperation and influence, despite being the smallest member [9][10] - South Africa is pursuing diversification of its trade partnerships, including strengthening ties with the EU and other BRICS nations [7][9] Group 6: Market Opportunities in Natural Products - There is potential for collaboration in the natural products sector, particularly in traditional medicine and natural therapies, which could lead to the development of high-value products [11] - South Africa's unique products, such as Rooibos tea and aloe vera skincare items, are expected to gain traction in the Chinese market [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of rising tariffs on the foreign trade business of Tonglu Cashmere Knitting Co., Ltd, highlighting the challenges faced and the strategies adopted to navigate the turbulent trade environment between China and the United States [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Business - The company has experienced significant challenges due to the U.S. tariff increases, which have compressed profit margins and led to difficult price negotiations with American clients [3][4]. - The U.S. market accounts for 70% of the company's orders, with previous profit margins ranging from 10% to 15% [3][5]. - As tariffs increased from an initial 10% to as high as 34% and 50%, the company faced pressure to reduce prices, leading to a shared burden of tariff costs with clients [5][6]. Group 2: Order Fluctuations and Market Response - The company has seen fluctuations in order volumes due to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, with some orders being paused despite prior agreements [9][10]. - The seasonal nature of their products, such as scarves and hats, requires timely production and delivery, making the tariff situation particularly critical [10][11]. - Despite the challenges, the company has resumed receiving orders after initial pauses, indicating a willingness to adapt to market conditions [11][12]. Group 3: Market Diversification Strategies - In response to the tariff challenges, the company is exploring new markets, particularly in Europe and the Middle East, to reduce reliance on the U.S. market [11][12]. - The company has shifted its focus from primarily attending U.S. trade shows to participating in European exhibitions, where profit margins are higher and client relationships are more favorable [12][13]. - The company is also enhancing its domestic market presence and investing in product development and market research to stay competitive [13][14]. Group 4: Operational Efficiency and Product Range - The company has implemented a "two-legged" strategy, focusing on both international and domestic markets while improving production efficiency through automation [13][14]. - By reducing the workforce from over 1,000 to around 100 skilled workers and utilizing advanced machinery, the company has significantly increased production efficiency and product quality [13][14]. - The product range has expanded beyond traditional items to include pajamas, sweaters, and scarves, catering to diverse market demands [14][15].

Group 1: Overview of Nanjing's Foreign Trade Resilience - Nanjing's foreign trade enterprises are demonstrating strong resilience and vitality amidst global trade uncertainties by leveraging technological innovation, market diversification, and flexible marketing strategies [1] - Companies are striving for high-quality development and aiming to create an upward growth curve despite challenges [1] Group 2: Nanjing Leiying Technology Co., Ltd. - Nanjing Leiying Technology's sterile rice production line, weighing 107 tons and valued at 50 million yuan, is being exported to Japan, showcasing the company's advanced technology and innovation [2] - The company has seen a 13.83% year-on-year increase in export value as of April, successfully expanding into Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa [2] - Leiying Technology's product line includes various central kitchen equipment, and the demand for such equipment has surged due to the trend of centralized kitchen supply chains [2] Group 3: Nanjing High-Speed Gear Manufacturing Co., Ltd. - Nanjing High-Speed Gear's export value reached 462 million yuan from January to April, marking a 7.4% increase, with an expected annual export value of over 1.34 billion yuan, a 20% growth compared to last year [4][5] - The company has maintained its leading position in the global wind power gearbox market, with a market share of one-third of new installations [4] - Nanjing High-Speed Gear has invested over 100 million yuan in quality information technology and has made significant advancements in research and development [4] Group 4: Nanjing Meihua Textile Co., Ltd. - Nanjing Meihua Textile achieved an export value of 18 million USD in the first quarter, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [6] - The company has diversified its product offerings from bedding to various home textile products, establishing a flexible supply chain that meets customer demands [6][7] - Meihua Textile has expanded its market reach beyond the U.S. to Europe and South America, increasing its domestic sales proportion from 5% to 30% [7]

证券代码：873339 证券简称：恒太照明 公告编号：2025-023 江苏恒太照明股份有限公司 □特定对象调研 √业绩说明会 □媒体采访 □现场参观 □新闻发布会 □分析师会议 投资者关系活动记录表 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连 带法律责任。 一、 投资者关系活动类别 1、公司未来在北美以外市场拓展具体计划是什么？ 尊敬的投资者，公司目前销售目标市场主要是北美地区，目前公司通过在东 南亚建立生产基地，同时计划积极开拓欧洲、东南亚及中国国内市场，通过多元 化，分散化的出口目标市场有效的降低单一依赖北美市场造成的国际贸易风险。 2、股价最近低迷，感觉和业绩不挂勾，管理层有什么对策吗? □路演活动 □其他 二、 投资者关系活动情况 活动时间：2025 年 5 月 9 日 活动地点：公司通过全景网"投资者关系互动平台"（https://ir.p5w.net） 采用网络远程的方式召开业绩说明会 参会单位及人员：通过网络方式参与公司 2024 年年度报告业绩说明会的投 资者 上市公司接待人员：1、董事长李彭晴 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the impact of high tariffs from the U.S., China's foreign trade has shown resilience, with exports growing by 8.1% in April 2025, significantly exceeding market expectations of 2.0% [1] Group 1: Market Diversification - The contraction of the U.S. market has been quickly offset by the expansion of emerging markets, with exports to ASEAN countries surging by 21.1% in April, while exports to the U.S. fell by 20.9% [2] - ASEAN's share in China's exports has increased to 19.1%, nearly double that of the U.S. market at 10.5% [2] - The 90-day tariff exemption period from the U.S. has encouraged Chinese companies to expedite re-exports through ASEAN, partially mitigating direct tariff impacts [2] Group 2: Product Upgrading - High-value products have become the backbone of exports, with integrated circuit exports rising by 21.3%, LCD panel exports by 16.2%, and ship exports by 35.6% [3] - Mechanical and high-tech product exports grew by 10.1% and 6.5%, respectively, contributing nearly 70% to overall export growth, highlighting China's irreplaceability in the global supply chain [3] - The automotive sector has shown a rebound, with complete vehicle exports increasing by 4.3% and auto parts exports maintaining a growth rate of 6.9% [3] Group 3: Flexible Trade Models - Processing trade imports surged by 13.1%, indicating capacity expansion among export-oriented enterprises, which serves as a leading indicator for future exports [4] - The import of bulk commodities like crude oil and iron ore increased by 7.5% and 1.3%, respectively, despite a slight decline in import value due to falling prices, suggesting resilience in domestic industrial demand [4] - Imports from the U.S. fell by 13.9% in April, primarily due to bilateral tariff negotiations, while imports from non-U.S. markets like ASEAN remained stable, demonstrating China's self-adjustment capabilities [5] Group 4: Institutional Outlook - Short-term strategies focus on leveraging markets in ASEAN, the Middle East, and Latin America to quickly fill gaps left by the U.S. market, utilizing tariff exemption policies for high-tech products [6] - Long-term strategies emphasize boosting domestic demand and industrial upgrades, with recommendations for fiscal policies to enhance consumption and employment, and increased investment in technological innovation [6] - The resilience of foreign trade is characterized by a combination of market network resilience, industrial upgrade resilience, and policy adjustment resilience [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade shows steady growth in the first four months of the year, with a total import and export value of 14.14 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.4% in yuan terms and 1.3% in dollar terms, indicating a recovery in the economy [1][2]. Trade Performance - In April, China's import and export value reached 3.84 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%. Exports saw a slight decline in growth rate to 9.3%, while imports turned from a decline to a growth of 0.8% [1][2]. - The export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 9.5%, accounting for over 60% of total exports. Key products such as automatic data processing equipment, integrated circuits, and automobiles saw growth rates of 5.6%, 14.7%, and 4% respectively [2]. - The import of crude oil increased by 0.5%, while imports of iron ore, coal, natural gas, soybeans, and refined oil saw a decrease, with overall prices (excluding refined oil) declining [2]. Trade Methods and Entities - General trade saw a year-on-year growth of 0.6%, making up 64% of total foreign trade. Processing trade and bonded logistics trade grew by 6.6% and 7% respectively [3]. - Private enterprises accounted for 8.05 trillion yuan in imports and exports, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, representing 56.9% of total foreign trade, marking a 2.3 percentage point increase from the previous year [3]. - Foreign-invested enterprises experienced a year-on-year growth of 1.9%, accelerating by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter [3]. Trade Partners - Trade with neighboring countries reached 5.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with growth accelerating by 1.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter. Notably, trade with ASEAN and Central Asian countries grew by 9.2% and 9.9% respectively [3]. Industry Analysis - The proportion of high-tech industries in exports has increased, enhancing resilience against external pressures such as tariffs. The focus on market diversification and the development of new business models like cross-border e-commerce is crucial for maintaining market share [4]. - The resilience of Chinese exports is attributed to three factors: the increased share of high-tech industries, the dominant role of private enterprises in responding quickly to global market demands, and the proactive expansion into neighboring markets [4].

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade industry is facing unprecedented challenges due to the imposition of tariffs by the United States, leading to significant disruptions in global markets and prompting companies to seek new strategies to navigate these difficulties [1][22]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Companies - Companies are experiencing a sharp decline in orders, with a reported 30%-40% decrease in order volume and around 20% of production capacity idled due to increased tariffs [5][10]. - For example, a cable manufacturing company in Zhejiang, which previously generated over 1 billion RMB in sales, is now facing a drastic reduction in sales from millions to hundreds of thousands of dollars due to halted orders from American clients [3][5]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - In response to the tariff impacts, companies are rapidly shifting their focus to markets outside the U.S., establishing representative offices in countries like the UK, Germany, and Brazil to expand their business [6][8]. - A long-term strategy to develop non-U.S. markets was already in place, with performance incentives established to encourage employees to pursue opportunities beyond the American market [6][8]. Group 3: Domestic Market Opportunities - The domestic market is seen as a crucial alternative, with domestic consumption contributing over 60% to GDP, providing a strong foundation for companies to pivot away from reliance on U.S. orders [12][22]. - Companies are innovating and upgrading their products to meet domestic demand, with one furniture company successfully launching new products and utilizing trade fairs to penetrate the domestic market [14][15]. Group 4: Digital Transformation and Marketing Innovation - Companies are leveraging digital platforms and social media to enhance their marketing strategies, with one company successfully using short videos and live streaming to attract customers and secure orders [17][19]. - The shift towards online sales channels has allowed companies to establish a more targeted approach to marketing, resulting in significant order volumes from e-commerce platforms [20]. Group 5: Overall Trade Trends - China's foreign trade is showing signs of diversification, with a reported 5.26 trillion RMB in trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries in the first quarter, reflecting a 2.2% year-on-year increase [22]. - Despite the challenges posed by U.S. tariffs, Chinese foreign trade enterprises are actively seeking new markets and products, indicating resilience and adaptability in the face of external pressures [22].

Core Insights - China's foreign trade demonstrated resilience against high U.S. tariffs, with exports growing by 8.1% in April 2025, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 2.0% [1] - The trade surplus remained high at $96 billion, indicating strong performance despite external pressures [1] Group 1: Market Diversification - The contraction of the U.S. market was offset by the rapid expansion of emerging markets, with exports to ASEAN countries soaring by 21.1% in April, while exports to the U.S. plummeted by 20.9% [2] - ASEAN's share in China's exports increased to 19.1%, nearly double that of the U.S. market [2] - The 90-day tariff exemption period from the U.S. encouraged Chinese companies to expedite re-exports through ASEAN, mitigating direct tariff impacts [2] Group 2: Product Upgrading - High-value products became the backbone of exports, with integrated circuit exports rising by 21.3%, LCD panel exports by 16.2%, and ship exports by 35.6% [3] - Mechanical and high-tech product exports grew by 10.1% and 6.5%, respectively, contributing nearly 70% of the total export growth [3] - The automotive sector showed a rebound, with complete vehicle exports increasing by 4.3% and auto parts exports maintaining a growth rate of 6.9% [3] Group 3: Flexible Trade Models - Processing trade imports surged by 13.1%, indicating capacity expansion among export-oriented enterprises [4] - The import of bulk commodities like crude oil and iron ore increased by 7.5% and 1.3%, respectively, despite a slight decline in import value due to price drops [4] - Imports from the U.S. fell by 13.9%, primarily due to bilateral tariff disputes, while imports from non-U.S. markets remained stable, showcasing China's ability to self-adjust [4] Group 4: Institutional Outlook - Short-term strategies focus on leveraging markets in ASEAN, the Middle East, and Latin America, utilizing tariff exemption policies to create buffer periods [5][6] - Long-term strategies emphasize boosting domestic demand and industrial upgrades, with recommendations for increased fiscal policies targeting consumption and employment [6] - The consensus among institutions is that China's foreign trade is transitioning from passive resistance to proactive solutions amid global supply chain restructuring [7]

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade showed resilience and growth despite the challenges posed by the US tariff war, with significant increases in both exports and imports in April 2023, indicating a strong economic recovery and adaptability of Chinese enterprises [2][14][28]. Trade Performance - In April 2023, China's total goods trade reached 3.84 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6%, with exports at 2.27 trillion yuan (up 9.3%) and imports at 1.57 trillion yuan (up 0.8%) [2]. - The growth rate of imports turned positive after a decline, reflecting a recovery in domestic demand [14][28]. Key Factors Driving Growth - High-tech product exports were a significant driver, with 1.52 trillion yuan in exports (up 7.4%), accounting for 18.1% of total exports [14]. - The export of marine engineering equipment and industrial robots saw substantial growth, with increases of 16.4% and 58.3% respectively [14]. - The rise in the number of private enterprises participating in foreign trade, which accounted for 56.9% of total trade, also contributed to the growth [25][27]. Market Diversification - Companies are diversifying their markets to mitigate the impact of tariffs, with exports to ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa increasing significantly [29]. - The share of exports to the US has dropped below 15%, indicating a strategic shift towards emerging markets [29]. Technological Advancements - The transition from low-value to high-value products is evident, with significant growth in exports of machinery and electronics, particularly integrated circuits and automobiles [30]. - Private enterprises are increasingly becoming the backbone of foreign trade, showcasing strong innovation capabilities [30]. Policy Support - The Chinese government is implementing supportive policies to reduce burdens on foreign trade enterprises, enhancing efficiency and competitiveness [33]. - The combination of policy measures and institutional reforms is expected to continue benefiting the foreign trade sector [31][33]. Long-term Implications - The ongoing tariff war is accelerating China's restructuring within the global supply chain, pushing for a transition from cost advantages to technological and brand strength [34].