Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a series of policies to expand service consumption, aiming to shift the consumption structure from goods to services as the economy matures, with a focus on attracting quality service resources and enhancing domestic consumption [1][6]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The newly released measures include 19 specific tasks across five areas, targeting various sectors such as cultural venues, sports events, education, high-end healthcare, and leisure tourism [1]. - The government plans to introduce additional policies for high-quality development in the accommodation industry and the integration of railways and tourism [1]. - A "1+N" policy system has been established, with over 30 related policy documents already issued [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The shift towards service consumption is supported by international experience, indicating that when GDP per capita reaches around $15,000, the consumption structure tends to favor services [1]. - The service consumption expenditure per capita in China is projected to reach 46.1% of total consumption by 2024, indicating significant growth potential compared to developed countries [5]. Group 3: Technological Integration - The integration of new technologies such as 5G, IoT, big data, and AI is accelerating in the consumption sector, with a notable rise in "AI + consumption" applications [2]. - In August, the sales of robot-related products in Beijing's E-TOWN exceeded 330 million yuan, with over 190,000 units sold, highlighting the growing market for AI-driven consumer products [2]. Group 4: Pilot Cities and New Consumption Scenarios - The government will select around 50 pilot cities with large populations and strong development potential to innovate and diversify consumption scenarios [4]. - The focus is on enhancing the supply of quality consumption and promoting new consumption formats to stimulate market vitality [4]. Group 5: International Tourism and Service Optimization - The number of inbound tourists is expected to reach 130 million in 2024, with total spending projected at $94.2 billion, reflecting a significant increase from 2023 [7]. - Efforts are being made to improve the convenience of inbound tourism services, including the implementation of tax refund policies and the introduction of multilingual support at major airports [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the CSI 300 index until the end of 2026, driven by a shift in residents' asset allocation towards the stock market, which supports a potential increase in the price-to-earnings ratio over the next 12 months [3][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential opportunities arising from the "14th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030), particularly focusing on the themes of anti-involution and service consumption. Anti-involution is expected to drive cyclical improvements across various industries, contributing to the overall earnings targets of the CSI 300 index by the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [1][3]. - The service consumption sector is projected to benefit from the government's goal of increasing residents' income during the new five-year plan period. Key catalysts include specific numerical indicators, such as the contribution of service consumption to China's economic growth [1][3][5]. - The report identifies healthcare, financial services, and cultural entertainment as sectors with relevant investment targets, highlighting the potential for significant growth in service consumption compared to developed markets [5][9]. Summary by Sections Anti-Involution - The report outlines an 18-24 month market outlook focused on normalizing prices and investment returns. If executed effectively, anti-involution measures could lead to substantial growth in residents' wealth through stock appreciation driven by profit, cash flow, and dividend growth [3][4]. - The anticipated changes in the "14th Five-Year Plan" may impose stricter regulations and fiscal discipline to curb local government corporatization, potentially leading to mergers and increased industry concentration [3][4]. Service Consumption - The report notes that China's service consumption still has significant growth potential, closely linked to per capita GDP and income levels. Current service consumption levels are comparable to those in the U.S. in the early 1970s, suggesting room for improvement [5][6]. - Investment targets in the service consumption sector include healthcare services, finance, and cultural entertainment, with a focus on companies that meet specific market capitalization and trading volume criteria [5][9]. Stock Selection - The report provides a selection of A-share companies involved in anti-involution measures, emphasizing those with the worst profitability as potential beneficiaries of policy support [6][10]. - A detailed analysis of selected stocks in healthcare, education, film, online gaming, and tourism sectors is included, focusing on companies with significant market capitalization and trading activity [8][10].

旅游市场亮点纷呈，演唱会、音乐节广受欢迎，"苏超""村BA"等群众赛事"火爆出圈"……近年来，服 务消费已成为推动我国消费市场增长的重要力量。 9月16日，商务部、国家发展改革委等9部门联合印发《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，提出5方 面19项主要举措，将为当前火热的服务消费"再添一把火"。 在9月17日国新办举行的新闻发布会上，商务部、国家发展改革委、人民银行、文化和旅游部相关负责 人对扩大服务消费的政策亮点进行了深入解读。 商务部副部长盛秋平介绍，在培育服务消费促进平台方面，将持续实施服务消费提质惠民行动，开 展"服务消费季"等活动，培育服务消费品牌；支持首发经济，创新多元化服务消费场景，推进优质消费 资源与知名IP跨界合作，促进商旅文体健融合发展。 值得关注的是，我国首次提出建设消费新业态、新模式、新场景试点城市。 商务部服务贸易和商贸服务业司司长孔德军表示，下一步商务部将通过竞争性评审方式，在全国选择约 50个人口基数大、带动作用强、发展潜力好的城市，打造消费新业态、新模式、新场景，增加优质消费 供给，创新多元化消费场景，推动新业态不断涌现、消费活力持续提升，更好满足人民群众多样化、差 异化的需求 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The innovation and development in the consumption sector have become a focal point, with service consumption emerging as a key driver for market growth and a crucial tool for expanding domestic demand [1][2] - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments released a policy document on September 16, outlining 19 specific measures to promote service consumption, focusing on five areas including nurturing platforms and enhancing service supply [1][2] - The document emphasizes three main principles: combining benefits for people's livelihoods with consumption promotion, optimizing supply while stimulating demand, and balancing domestic and foreign openness [1] Group 2: Pilot Cities and New Consumption Models - The policy measures propose the establishment of pilot cities for new consumption formats, aiming to develop innovative service consumption scenarios and support cross-industry collaborations [2] - Approximately 50 pilot cities will be selected based on population size, potential for impact, and development prospects to enhance quality consumption supply and stimulate diverse consumption scenarios [2] Group 3: Quality Service Supply Enhancement - Expanding service consumption requires not only stimulating demand but also providing high-quality service supply, with initiatives aimed at upgrading service quality across various sectors [3] - The government plans to implement actions to enhance service quality, including promoting AI applications in service sectors and fostering a good environment for market activity [3] Group 4: Cultural and Tourism Product Development - The policy measures highlight the need to cultivate cultural activities and events, optimize cultural product supply, and leverage traditional cultural IP for new service consumption scenarios [4][5] - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism aims to improve tourism services and experiences, with significant financial commitments made during recent industry expos [5] Group 5: Financial Support for Service Consumption - The policy document outlines the use of monetary and credit policies to support financial institutions in expanding credit for service consumption, with a focus on innovative financial products tailored to the sector [7][8] - As of July, the loan balance in key service consumption areas reached 2.79 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, indicating strong financial backing for the sector [7][8]

信贷产品与服务创新同步推进。央行指导金融机构聚焦"食、住、行、游、购、娱"等重点消费领域，从 供需两端发力完善业务流程，加大对消费行业经营主体首贷、续贷、信用贷及中长期贷款支持。 9月17日，在国新办新闻发布会上，中国人民银行信贷市场司负责人杨虹表示，截至目前，金融机构申 报服务消费与养老再贷款近600亿元，涉及经营主体近4000家、贷款5700多笔。 今年以来，中国人民银行联合商务部、财政部等多部门密集出台并落地一系列金融支持政策，从工具创 新、信贷投放、政策协同、渠道拓宽等多维度发力，为服务消费市场注入强劲动能。日前，商务部等9 部门联合印发相关政策措施，进一步强化财政金融协同，推动服务消费高质量发展。 服务消费与养老再贷款申报近600亿元 今年以来，人民银行出台多项政策支持提振和扩大服务消费，5月份，人民银行专门设立5000亿元服务 消费与养老再贷款，引导金融机构加大对住宿、餐饮、文体娱乐、教育、居民服务、旅游等服务消费重 点领域和养老产业的信贷投放。 杨虹17日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，截至7月末，不含个人住房贷款的全国住户消费贷款余额21.04万 亿元，比年初新增346亿元，同比增长5.34%。 截 ...

2025.09. 17 本文字数：2152，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 封图 | AI生成 9月17日，在国新办新闻发布会上，中国人民银行信贷市场司负责人杨虹表示，截至目前，金融机构申报服务消费与养老再贷款近600亿元，涉及经营 主体近4000家、贷款5700多笔。 财政金融联动激发服务消费活力 服务消费与养老再贷款申报近600亿元 今年以来，人民银行出台多项政策支持提振和扩大服务消费，5月份，人民银行专门设立5000亿元服务消费与养老再贷款，引导金融机构加大对住宿、 餐饮、文体娱乐、教育、居民服务、旅游等服务消费重点领域和养老产业的信贷投放。 杨虹17日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，截至7月末，不含个人住房贷款的全国住户消费贷款余额21.04万亿元，比年初新增346亿元，同比增长 5.34%。 截至目前，金融机构申报服务消费与养老再贷款近600亿元，涉及经营主体近4000家、贷款5700多笔。 谈及科技创新和技术改造再贷款，杨虹表示，2024年4月，人民银行设立5000亿元科技创新和技术改造再贷款，激励引导银行加大对重点领域设备更 新项目的信贷支持，今年扩大规模至8000亿元，符合条件的服务消 ...

央视网消息（新闻联播）：国务院新闻办公室9月17日举行新闻发布会，商务部、国家发展改革委、文化和旅游部、中国人民银行有关负责人介绍《关于扩 大服务消费的若干政策措施》（以下简称《政策措施》）主要内容。 随着消费结构转型升级，文娱旅游、交通出行、体育健康、养老托育等服务消费将逐步成为主导型消费。《政策措施》从培育服务消费促进平台、丰富高品 质服务供给、激发服务消费新增量、加强财政金融支持等五方面提出19项举措。 下一步，我国将推动人工智能在服务消费等领域加快应用；在托育、养老、家政、旅游等重点领域健全守信激励和失信惩戒机制；增强消费领域资金供给能 力；开展消费新业态新模式新场景试点城市建设，进一步增加优质消费供给，创新和丰富多元化消费场景，推动新的消费业态不断涌现。 ...

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented various financial support policies to boost service consumption and the elderly care sector, with nearly 600 billion yuan in loans reported by financial institutions as of now [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Support Policies - As of the end of July, the balance of household consumption loans, excluding personal housing loans, reached 21.04 trillion yuan, with an increase of 346 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.34% [2][3] - The PBOC has established a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly care re-lending program to encourage financial institutions to increase credit in key service sectors such as accommodation, catering, and tourism [2][3] - A joint policy issued by nine departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, aims to enhance financial and fiscal collaboration to promote high-quality development in service consumption [1][5] Group 2: Credit Innovation and Support - The PBOC is guiding financial institutions to innovate credit products and services, focusing on key consumption areas such as food, housing, travel, and entertainment, to enhance credit supply [4][5] - From January to July, financial institutions issued 215 billion yuan in financial bonds and 484 billion yuan in asset-backed securities, which helps to activate credit supply and reduce financing costs [4][5] - The balance of loans in key service consumption sectors reached 2.79 trillion yuan by the end of July, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3% and a net increase of 1,642 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [3][4] Group 3: Fiscal and Financial Coordination - Recent measures include multi-dimensional funding support for service consumption, focusing on sectors like culture, tourism, and elderly care, to stimulate market vitality [5][6] - The government aims to lower credit costs through a dual interest subsidy policy, which could potentially lead to 1 trillion yuan in loans directed towards consumption [6] - The PBOC plans to work with various departments to ensure that policies effectively reach service consumption entities and consumers, enhancing public satisfaction [7]

Production - In August 2025, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[11] - The manufacturing sector remains the main driver of industrial growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, down from 6.2%[11] - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 9.3% year-on-year, contributing 28.5% to the overall industrial growth[11] Consumption - The total retail sales of consumer goods in August 2025 increased by 3.4% year-on-year, a decline of 0.3 percentage points from July[2] - Rural consumption grew by 4.6%, outpacing urban consumption growth of 3.2%, indicating significant potential in the rural market[14] - Over 80% of product categories saw retail sales growth, with more than 30% achieving double-digit growth[15] Investment - From January to August 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.5%, continuing a downward trend[24] - Excluding real estate development investment, fixed asset investment grew by 4.2%, indicating resilience in manufacturing and some infrastructure sectors[24] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.9% year-on-year, with new construction, completion, and construction area all showing declines[25]

商务部等9部门16日对外发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，提出五方面19条举措进一步扩大服务消费。 9月17日，商务部副部长盛秋平、国家发展改革委就业收入分配和消费司司长吴越涛、商务部服贸司司长孔德军、文化和旅游部产业发展司司长缪沐阳、中国 人民银行信贷市场司负责人杨虹出席国新办新闻发布会，介绍已于9月16日发布的《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》（下称《措施》）有关情况。 来看 会上重点内容： 1.将通过竞争性评审方式在全国选择50个左右人口基数大、带动作用强、发展潜力好的消费新业态新模式新场景试点城市； 2.截至7月末，全国服务消费重点领域贷款余额2.79万亿元，同比增长5.3%，比年初新增1642亿元，前7个月新增贷款比去年全年新增贷款多630亿元； 3.截至7月末，不含个人住房贷款的全国住户消费贷款余额21.04万亿元，比年初新增346亿元，同比增长5.34%； 4.中国人民银行积极支持符合条件的金融机构发行金融债券、信贷资产支持证券，拓宽资金来源，提升消费信贷供给能力； 5.初步统计，围绕建立服务消费"1+N"政策体系，相关部门目前已经出台了30多项政策文件； 6.接下来，商务部还将出台住宿业 ...