6月18日早盘，国内期货市场原油主力合约2508持续领涨，对二甲苯、PTA、乙二醇、甲醇等化工商品 价格集体上行。截至上午收盘，原油主力合约涨幅达5.8%，最高报556.3元/桶，月内最大涨幅已超过 25%，其他主力合约中，对二甲苯早盘收涨4.61%，PTA涨4.25%，LPG、苯乙烯涨幅均超3%。 "从历史规律来看，中东的地缘冲突问题，往往导致油价出现脉冲式上涨，上涨空间一般在5美元/桶左 右，维持时间三天左右，除了重大突然性问题、油价上涨幅度更大之外，市场基本都提前消化预期，随 着各方反击、事态逐步消化，油价将陆续回落。无论是之前俄乌问题还是巴以问题，都是如此规 律。"对于近期国际油价走势，卓创资讯原油分析师朱光明认为，这次以色列问题，确实令原油价格上 涨明显，但是油价已经连续上涨，累计涨幅相对明显，事件影响基本消耗完毕，当然也需要警惕更大规 模冲突的可能性。 原油价格的波动，也对下游石化商品形成显著影响。 6月中旬，国内PP市场出现小幅上涨行情，截至6月13日，据卓创资讯数据统计，华北地区PP拉丝均价 收于7135元/吨，较5月底上涨100元/吨，华东地区PP拉丝均价收于7130元/吨，较上月底上涨1. ...

原油成品油早报 | 日期 | 日本石脑油 | 日本石脑油-B | 新加坡燃料油 | 新加坡380-B | 上期所FU主 | 上期所FU-B | 上期所BU | 上期所BU | HH天然气 | BFO | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CFR | RT | 380CST贴水 | RT | 力合约 | RT | 主力合约 | BRT | | | | 2025/06/11 | 571.50 | 58.69 | 12.95 | -97.36 | 2912 | -107.32 | 3461 | -30.88 | 2.730 | 72.26 | | 2025/06/12 | 584.50 | 74.70 | 10.25 | -78.61 | 2997 | -92.40 | 3527 | -18.59 | 2.900 | 71.82 | | 2025/06/13 | 620.50 | 74.91 | 7.8 | -86.85 | 3205 | -99.04 | 3628 | -40.10 | 2.650 | 7 ...

北京时间周四凌晨2点，美联储将公布6月利率决议及最新经济预测摘要（SEP），其中反映官员利率预 期的"点阵图"成为关键焦点。当前，对进口关税走向及地缘冲突下油价波动的不确定性加剧，正显著提 升美联储无法如3月预期般在2025年降息两次的风险。 3月点阵图中值显示，美联储官员预计2025年底前降息两次。然而，目前联邦基金利率期货市场仅赋予 降息幅度小于两次约37.7%的概率。这一预期差为今夜决议埋下风险：若点阵图中值下调至仅一次降 息，可能引发市场失望情绪。 美国总统特朗普4月对多数进口商品加征的10%基础关税，其90天暂停期将于7月结束，缺乏永久解决方 案加剧了通胀前景的不确定性。同时，近期中东紧张局势导致油价波动加剧，引发对潜在供应中断推升 通胀的担忧。这些因素叠加，正侵蚀美联储的政策空间。 金融服务公司Ebury指出，年内两次降息可能仍是多数委员的基准预期，但关税的巨大不确定性可能阻 碍他们大幅调整观点。风险在于，少数委员下调预期可能足以使点阵图中值指向仅降息一次（25基 点）。若点阵图偏鹰派，加之鲍威尔强调不急于降息，可能支撑美元走强。 市场普遍预期美联储首次降息将在9月。过去三个月，美联储官员对202 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.04% to close at 3387.4 points, with a daily high of 3393.31 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.12% to 10151.43 points, reaching a high of 10198.98 points [1] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 0.36% to 2049.94 points, with a peak of 2063.08 points [1] ETF Market Performance - The median return of stock ETFs was -0.15% [2] - The highest performing scale index ETF was ICBC Credit Suisse CSI 2000 ETF with a return of 1.92% [2] - The top industry index ETF was E Fund CSI Green Power ETF, returning 1.04% [2] - The highest return among thematic index ETFs was Huitianfu CSI Oil and Gas Resources ETF at 1.91% [2] ETF Performance Rankings - The top three ETFs by return were: 1. ICBC Credit Suisse CSI 2000 ETF: 1.92% [4] 2. Huitianfu CSI Oil and Gas Resources ETF: 1.91% [4] 3. Yinhua CSI Oil and Gas Resources ETF: 1.66% [4] - The worst performing ETFs included: 1. Tianhong Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Innovative Drug Selection 50 ETF: -3.85% [5] 2. E Fund CSI Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovative Drug Industry ETF: -3.83% [5] 3. Huatai-PB CSI Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovative Drug Industry ETF: -3.64% [5] ETF Fund Flows - The top three ETFs by fund inflow were: 1. Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF: 1.333 billion yuan [6] 2. E Fund Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF: 374 million yuan [6] 3. Guotai Junan CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF: 260 million yuan [6] - The largest outflows were from: 1. Southern CSI 1000 ETF: 247 million yuan [7] 2. ICBC Credit Suisse Shenzhen Dividend ETF: 239 million yuan [7] 3. Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF: 212 million yuan [7] ETF Margin Trading Overview - The highest margin buy amounts were: 1. Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF: 486 million yuan [8] 2. E Fund CSI 300 Medical and Health ETF: 218 million yuan [8] 3. Huaxia Shanghai 50 ETF: 210 million yuan [8] - The largest margin sell amounts were: 1. Southern CSI 1000 ETF: 49.79 million yuan [9] 2. Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF: 13.79 million yuan [9] 3. Huaxia Shanghai 50 ETF: 8.31 million yuan [9] Industry Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transport route, may lead to a new round of price increases in the shipping sector [10] - CITIC Securities highlighted that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine are driving significant fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude expected to range between $70 and $100 per barrel in the short term [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices rose significantly, reaching a multi - year single - day maximum increase on Friday with an enlarged intraday amplitude. The geopolitical risk soared due to the Israel - Iran conflict, and the risk of oil price increase remains high. The fundamental support for oil prices is weaker than during the 2022 Russia - Ukraine conflict, and it is expected that the absolute price will fluctuate significantly in the next two weeks [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From June 10 - 16, 2025, WTI decreased by 1.21, BRENT decreased by 1.00, and DUBAI decreased by 0.59. SC increased by 11.70, and OMAN increased by 0.03. Other related products also showed corresponding price changes [3]. 2. Daily News - Germany, France, and the UK are ready to talk with Iran about its nuclear program. Yemen's Houthi rebels attacked Israel. Trump warned Iran and said the US could facilitate an Iran - Israel agreement. Iran will no longer notify the IAEA in advance about its nuclear activities. Israel's actions against Iran are expected to last for weeks with US acquiescence, and US military intervention may lead to a qualitative change in the Middle - East situation [4]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending June 6, US commercial crude inventories decreased by 3644000 barrels, Cushing inventories decreased by 40300 barrels, and the SPR increased by 23700 barrels. US domestic crude production increased by 20000 barrels per day. The number of oil rigs decreased by 3 to 439, and the number of fracturing wells decreased by 4 to 182. US EIA gasoline inventories increased by 1504000 barrels. In China, the main refinery operating rate rose, the Shandong local refinery operating rate fell, and both gasoline and diesel production increased. Refinery profits showed a rebound and recovery trend [4][5]. 4. Weekly Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a significant increase in oil prices. The risk of oil price increase remains high due to the lack of an end - condition for Israel's attacks and Iran's counter - attacks. The fundamental support for oil prices is weak, but there are also some positive factors such as the start of domestic refinery operations and the expectation of reserve replenishment. It is expected that the absolute price will fluctuate significantly in the next two weeks [6].

Group 1 - The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in international oil prices, which in turn has strengthened the A-share oil and gas sector [1][4] - On June 17, the energy equipment index led the market, with companies like Keli Co., Ltd. rising by 22% and Zhun Oil Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the current oil price levels may not fully reflect the geopolitical risks, and if a supply crisis occurs, oil prices could rise further [4][5] Group 2 - Keli Co., Ltd. has seen a substantial increase in stock price, with a 72% rise over three trading days, indicating strong market interest despite risk warnings [2][3] - The oil and gas sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with upstream companies benefiting from rising oil prices while some downstream companies are beginning to see price corrections [2][3] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by the anticipation of increased demand during the peak season, which is expected to support oil prices despite concerns over OPEC+ production increases [5]

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-06-17 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 或受拖累。总库存处于历史同期偏高水平。成本方面，多国表示愿帮助调节伊以冲突，但近日冲突呈升温 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 趋势，国际油价高位宽幅震荡；纯苯供应持续宽松、支撑有限。苯乙烯供需偏弱，只是地缘不确定性驱动 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 油价宽幅波动扰动盘面价格。短期EB2507预计震荡走势，下方关注7320附近支撑，上方关注7700附近压力 免责声明 。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最 ...

Group 1 - The National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) increased by 0.30% as of June 17, 2025, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (601975) up 5.40% and Shengli Oilfield (000407) up 5.26% [1] - In May, the processing of crude oil by large-scale industrial enterprises was 59.11 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, with a daily average processing of 1.907 million tons [2] - Natural gas production showed accelerated growth, with May's output reaching 22.1 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and a daily average output of 710 million cubic meters [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index as of May 30, 2025, include China National Petroleum (601857) and China Petroleum & Chemical (600028), collectively accounting for 66.48% of the index [3] - The oil and gas ETF (159697) closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, reflecting the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector [2]

地缘冲突升级：伊朗首都突发剧烈爆炸与防空行动 据伊朗当地媒体报道，周二伊朗首都德黑兰爆发剧烈爆炸，防空系统密集启动，冲突规模已持续至第五日。与此同时，以色列特拉维夫拉响空袭 警报，显示地区冲突呈现双向升级态势。 ETO Markets分析师指出，地缘风险溢价已成为短期油价波动核心驱动因素。此前周一，因伊朗可能寻求缓和局势的报道，两大基准油价单日跌幅 均超1%，但市场乐观情绪仅维持不足24小时即被冲突升级打破。 供应风险凸显：伊朗石油出口中断或推高油价4美元/桶 作为OPEC第三大产油国，伊朗原油供应稳定性对全球市场至关重要。Energy Aspects市场风险顾问机构测算，若伊朗石油出口因冲突减少100万 桶/日，国际油价可能上涨4美元/桶。 OPEC+动态：维持需求乐观预期，警惕非OPEC+供应增速放缓 OPEC+联合部长级监督委员会（JMMC）周一表示，尽管全球经济面临不确定性，但2025年下半年需求仍具韧性。同时，该组织下调2026年非 OPEC+产油国供应增速预期，暗示未来市场或更依赖OPEC+产量政策。 ETO Markets首席策略师评论： 周二亚市早盘，国际原油价格显著上行。截至发稿，布伦特原油 ...

美、布两油短线下挫0.8美元，消息称特朗普团队提议本周与伊朗进行谈判。 ...