Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's economy showed steady progress, with GDP growing by 5.3% year-on-year, and domestic demand contributing 68.8% to economic growth [2][4] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5%, with significant growth in household appliances and new energy vehicle sales, which rose by 30.7% and 40.3% respectively [4] National Market Development - The construction of a unified national market has made positive progress, with inter-provincial electricity trading volume increasing by 18.2% year-on-year [3] - The proportion of inter-provincial trade sales to total sales revenue reached 40.4%, up by 0.6 percentage points from the previous year [3] Consumption Expansion - Consumption is identified as the main engine of economic growth, with various policies and activities implemented to boost consumer spending [4] - The government plans to enhance consumer capacity and promote high-quality development through measures aimed at stabilizing employment and increasing residents' income [4] Energy Supply Stability - The national electricity supply remains stable, with adequate demand being met during peak summer temperatures [5][6] - The government will focus on ensuring sufficient energy supply, enhancing peak capacity, and optimizing demand-side management [6] Reform Initiatives - The government aims to deepen reforms to stimulate economic growth, focusing on expanding domestic demand and addressing prominent economic issues [7][8] - Key reform measures include promoting service consumption, improving investment mechanisms, and facilitating market access for new industries [8]

Group 1: Economic Measures and Funding - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will allocate the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan for the old-for-new consumption subsidy program in October, completing the annual target of 300 billion yuan [1] - The NDRC has fully disbursed the 69 billion yuan for the third batch of subsidies this year [1] - The NDRC has announced that the "two重" construction project list of 800 billion yuan has been fully allocated, with 735 billion yuan of central budget investment also nearly disbursed [6][7] Group 2: Artificial Intelligence and Market Development - The NDRC highlighted that there is a strong demand for the application of artificial intelligence, indicating a critical window for its implementation [2] - The NDRC is working on a plan to deepen the construction of a unified national market, with inter-provincial trade sales accounting for 40.4% of total sales revenue from January to April, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [4] Group 3: Employment and Economic Stability - The NDRC reported that domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth in the first half of the year, showcasing strong economic resilience [3] - The NDRC plans to continue implementing measures to stabilize employment and the economy, enhancing policy continuity and flexibility [3] Group 4: Market Regulation and Competition - The NDRC will address disordered competition among enterprises and promote the cleaning up of market access barriers [5][10] - The NDRC aims to unify government behavior regarding investment attraction, clarifying encouraged and prohibited actions [10] Group 5: Consumer Spending and Service Sector - The NDRC will focus on enhancing consumer capacity and promoting service consumption in areas such as culture, tourism, sports, and healthcare [9] - The NDRC plans to implement measures to stimulate consumption, including promoting domestic products and improving consumption infrastructure [9] Group 6: Private Sector Participation - The NDRC will facilitate greater participation of private enterprises in national major projects, particularly in the nuclear power sector [11] - The NDRC is set to establish new policy financial tools to support private investment [11] Group 7: Energy Market Reforms - The NDRC is advancing the construction of a unified national electricity market, with significant progress made in optimizing electricity resource allocation [13][14] - The NDRC has established a basic unified technical rule system for the electricity market, with 25 provinces already conducting spot trading [14]

Core Insights - The U.S. economy is sending mixed signals amid persistent inflation pressures and weak consumer spending, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook [1][8] - The June PCE price index rose 2.6% year-on-year, above the expected 2.5%, with the previous value revised up to 2.3% [1] - The core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year-on-year in June, surpassing the expected 2.7%, marking the highest level since February [1] Consumer Spending and Labor Market - Despite rising prices, consumer spending shows signs of fatigue, with real consumer spending only growing by 0.1% in June, failing to reverse the previous month's decline [4] - Durable goods spending has declined for three consecutive months, the longest streak since 2021, while service spending remains low, indicating weak discretionary spending [4] - Real disposable income remained flat in June after a decline in May, with weak wage growth limiting consumer spending willingness [4] Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma as rising core inflation raises concerns, yet weak consumer and labor market conditions prompt some policymakers to advocate for interest rate cuts [5] - The Fed maintained interest rates for the fifth consecutive time, with two board members unusually voting in favor of a 25 basis point cut, highlighting increasing internal divisions [5] Market Reactions - Following the data release, U.S. stock index futures maintained gains, Treasury yields declined, and the dollar remained stable, reflecting market caution regarding the Fed's policy direction [8] - The June PCE data intensified policy divisions within the Fed, as core inflation remains above target while consumer and income growth show signs of weakness [8]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will hold a press conference on August 1 at 10:00 to interpret the current economic situation and economic work [1][2] - The press conference is expected to provide insights into the economic policies and strategies that will impact various sectors [1][3]

中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。会议指出，宏观政 策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效 应。 如何看待当前经济运行状况？如何展望下半年经济形势？如何推动物价合理回升？下半年是否有必要推 出增量政策？要如何加力促消费？如何更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳？如何有效推进"反内卷"的工 作？带着这些问题，21世纪经济报道记者专访了上海财经大学校长刘元春。 下半年需重点关注投资 《21世纪》：上半年我国经济增长5.3%，其中一季度增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%。如何看待上半年经 济运行状况？ 刘元春：得益于超预期的出口和一揽子增量政策带来的消费反弹，中国经济上半年维持5.3%的增速， 显示出中国经济的韧劲和弹性。 在肯定上半年经济成绩的同时，也要看到一些结构性变化。当前，供给端增长要好于需求端，制造业韧 劲好于服务业，中央投资好于地方投资，大中型企业运行状况好于中小企业。更重要的是，6月份的一 些数据变化，包括投资增速回落、房地产市场出现波动等，暗示了下半年经济运行的新逻辑。 《21世纪》：如何展望下半年经济形势？出口、投 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the announcement of personnel changes in Jilin Province, specifically the appointment of Qiu Jiang as the new head of the United Front Work Department of the Jilin Provincial Committee [1] - Qiu Jiang was born in August 1972 and has held various significant positions in Yunnan Province, including Deputy Secretary of Chuxiong Prefectural Committee and Vice Governor of Yunnan Province [1][2][3] - Prior to his new role in Jilin, Qiu Jiang served as the Secretary-General of the Yunnan Provincial Committee [4] Group 2 - The previous head of the United Front Work Department in Jilin, Han Fuchun, was born in February 1965 and currently serves as the Deputy Secretary and Vice Chairman of the Jilin Provincial Political Consultative Conference [5]

Group 1 - The article highlights a situation involving a student from Xiamen University who made inappropriate comments about national athletes on social media, prompting the university to initiate an investigation and take disciplinary action based on the findings [1] - The university expresses gratitude for the attention from the public regarding this matter, indicating a commitment to uphold standards of conduct [1] Group 2 - The article mentions significant positive developments in the A-share market, including a sudden surge and a major rebound in the afternoon trading session [1] - It notes the arrival of a "super week" with important events and announcements from both China and the United States, which are expected to influence market dynamics [1] - Key messages include updates on tariffs between the US and EU, as well as a notable announcement regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]

Economic Overview - Shenzhen's GDP for the first half of 2025 reached 1832.226 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [1] - The primary industry added value was 1.033 billion yuan, growing by 2.8%; the secondary industry added value was 650.556 billion yuan, growing by 3.3%; and the tertiary industry added value was 1180.637 billion yuan, growing by 6.1% [1] Industrial Production - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 4.3% year-on-year, with a slight acceleration of 0.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - The manufacturing sector grew by 4.2%, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector saw an increase of 11.8% [2] - High-tech product output experienced rapid growth, with civil drones, industrial robots, and 3D printing equipment increasing by 59.0%, 38.0%, and 35.8% respectively [2] Service Sector - The added value of the service industry was 1180.637 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, also accelerating by 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter [3] - Key sectors such as finance, transportation, and information technology services grew by 10.9%, 9.0%, and 8.1% respectively [3] - From January to May, the revenue of large-scale service enterprises increased by 8.4%, with transportation and information services showing significant growth [3] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment decreased by 10.9% year-on-year, with real estate development investment down by 15.1% [4] - Infrastructure investment grew by 7.7%, while industrial technological transformation investment surged by 47.1% [4] - Investment in information transmission and technology services increased by 47.7%, and transportation and postal services by 32.5% [4] Market Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 494.868 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points from the first quarter [6] - Retail sales of essential goods showed strong growth, with daily necessities and food retail increasing by 10.7% and 9.1% respectively [6] - Online retail continued to grow, with sales through the internet increasing by 19.4% [6] Trade Performance - The total import and export volume was 2167.545 billion yuan, down by 1.1%, but the decline narrowed by 1.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [7] - Exports amounted to 1308.681 billion yuan, decreasing by 7.0%, while imports increased by 9.5% to 858.864 billion yuan [7] - High-tech product exports grew by 8.0% [7] Financial Sector - By the end of June, the balance of deposits in financial institutions reached 14160.014 billion yuan, growing by 5.7% year-on-year [8] - The balance of loans in financial institutions was 9846.991 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [8] Consumer Prices - The consumer price index rose by 0.1% year-on-year, with food and clothing prices increasing by 0.5% and 1.3% respectively [9] - Prices for transportation and communication decreased by 2.4%, while healthcare prices rose by 1.2% [9] - Overall, the economy maintained stable operation, with a focus on high-quality development despite external uncertainties [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Although China's economic fundamentals were still under pressure in June, financial data showed that the effects of loose monetary policy had emerged and might be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. The third trade negotiation provided more flexibility for the market. However, after the Politburo meeting, without any unexpected policies, market bulls might take profit, and stock index futures were expected to enter a wide - range shock. It was recommended to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF main contract (2509) closed at 4136.4, up 1.8; IF sub - main contract (2508) closed at 4147.0, up 1.6. IH main contract (2509) closed at 2820.0, up 7.8; IH sub - main contract (2508) closed at 2821.4, up 9.0. IC main contract (2509) closed at 6215.4, down 26.2; IC sub - main contract (2508) closed at 6271.2, down 26.8. IM main contract (2509) closed at 6604.2, down 28.8; IM sub - main contract (2508) closed at 6675.6, down 29.8 [2] - IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1325.6, down 14.6; IC - IF current - month contract spread was 2124.2, down 40.8. IM - IC current - month contract spread was 404.4, down 8.8; IC - IH current - month contract spread was 3449.8, down 55.4. IM - IF current - month contract spread was 2528.6, down 49.6; IM - IH current - month contract spread was 3854.2, down 64.2 [2] - IF current - quarter minus current - month was - 41.8, up 1.0; IF next - quarter minus current - month was - 72.6, up 1.6. IH current - quarter minus current - month was - 1.2, down 3.6; IH next - quarter minus current - month was 0.2, down 3.2. IC current - quarter minus current - month was - 192.2, up 2.8; IC next - quarter minus current - month was - 316, up 5.4. IM current - quarter minus current - month was - 260.4, down 1.2; IM next - quarter minus current - month was - 425.8, down 0.8 [2] Futures Position - IF top 20 net positions were - 26,574.00, down 2773.0; IH top 20 net positions were - 14,691.00, down 262.0. IC top 20 net positions were - 11,447.00, down 1360.0; IM top 20 net positions were - 37,384.00, down 2167.0 [2] Spot Price - CSI 300 was at 4151.24, down 0.8; IF main contract basis was - 14.8, down 4.2. SSE 50 was at 2819.35, up 10.8; IH main contract basis was 0.7, down 4.8. CSI 500 was at 6314.69, down 41.5; IC main contract basis was - 99.3, down 6.2. CSI 1000 was at 6718.48, down 55.4; IM main contract basis was - 114.3, down 2.4 [2] Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) was 18,709.76, up 416.67; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 19,826.41, up 156.08. Northbound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 2334.31, up 67.60; reverse repurchase (maturity, operation volume, billion yuan) was - 1505.0, up 3090.0. Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) were - 399.83 and - 792.11 respectively [2] - The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) was 31.62, down 9.75; Shibor (daily, %) was 1.317, down 0.049. IO at - the - money call option closing price (2508) was 52.00, down 9.60; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility (%) was 14.42, down 1.22. IO at - the - money put option closing price (2508) was 54.00, down 4.20; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility (%) was 14.42, down 1.22. CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility (%) was 6.52, up 0.02; trading volume PCR (%) was 63.76, up 5.52; open interest PCR (%) was 75.91, up 3.25 [2] Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A - shares were at 3.80, down 1.60; technical aspect was at 3.20, down 0.90; capital aspect was at 4.40, down 2.20 [2] Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and emphasized that macro - policies should continue to exert force and increase force in due course. It was necessary to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, release domestic demand potential, boost consumption, promote "two major" construction, expand high - level opening - up, and resolve local government debt risks [2] - From July 28th to 29th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Stockholm. The two sides agreed to extend the suspension of 24% of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days [2] Key Data to Focus On - On July 30th at 20:15, focus on US ADP employment in July; at 20:30, focus on US Q2 GDP; at 21:45, focus on Bank of Canada interest rate decision. On July 31st at 2:00, focus on Fed interest rate decision; at 9:30, focus on China's July manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI; at 10:47, focus on Bank of Japan interest rate decision; at 20:30, focus on US June PCE and core PCE. On August 1st at 9:45, focus on China's July Caixin manufacturing PMI; at 20:30, focus on US July non - farm payrolls report; at 22:00, focus on US July ISM manufacturing PMI [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of maintaining stable and healthy Sino-U.S. economic relations, highlighting that "decoupling" is not feasible and that equal dialogue is key to resolving differences [1] - The Chinese government is committed to further opening up its market, indicating that the policy for utilizing foreign investment remains unchanged and will continue to expand [1] - The Chinese consumer market is noted for its significant growth potential and innovative vitality, welcoming investments from U.S. companies and others to share development opportunities [1] Group 2 - The U.S.-China Trade Committee expresses optimism about the ongoing dialogue between the two governments and the positive outcomes achieved, which enhance market confidence [1] - The committee and its member companies are dedicated to long-term development in China and will contribute constructively to expanding Sino-U.S. economic cooperation [1]