Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures on June 25, 2025. Index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly; crude oil futures are expected to fluctuate weakly; silver, copper, rebar, iron ore, glass, and fuel oil futures are expected to fluctuate weakly; lithium carbonate futures are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: Expected to fluctuate strongly on June 25. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 3880 and 3900 points and support levels at 3852 and 3830 points [2]. - **Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The T2509 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25, with resistance levels at 109.12 and 109.18 yuan and support levels at 109.00 and 108.90 yuan [3]. - **Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The TL2509 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25, with resistance levels at 121.1 and 121.3 yuan and support levels at 120.8 and 120.7 yuan [3]. - **Gold Futures**: The AU2508 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25, with support levels at 764.3 and 758.8 yuan/gram and resistance levels at 772.5 and 775.0 yuan/gram [3]. - **Silver Futures**: The AG2508 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, with support levels at 8537 and 8496 yuan/kg and resistance levels at 8743 and 8785 yuan/kg [3]. - **Copper Futures**: The CU2508 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, with support levels at 78000 and 77600 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 78500 and 78700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Futures**: The AL2508 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, with support levels at 20210 and 20170 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 20320 and 20430 yuan/ton [3]. - **Alumina Futures**: The AO2509 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25, with resistance levels at 2929 and 2955 yuan/ton and support levels at 2870 and 2844 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The LC2509 contract is likely to fluctuate strongly on June 25, attacking resistance levels at 61900 and 63000 yuan/ton, with support levels at 60600 and 59500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rebar Futures**: The RB2510 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 2961 and 2949 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 2983 and 2991 yuan/ton [4]. - **Hot - rolled Coil Futures**: The HC2510 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 3078 and 3066 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 3099 and 3111 yuan/ton [4]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: The I2509 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 695 and 689 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 705 and 710 yuan/ton [4]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: The JM2509 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25, with resistance levels at 792 and 807 yuan/ton and support levels at 772 and 760 yuan/ton [4]. - **Glass Futures**: The FG509 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 998 and 987 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1021 and 1026 yuan/ton [4]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: The SA509 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 1147 and 1135 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1164 and 1180 yuan/ton [4]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: The SC2508 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 500 and 497 yuan/barrel, with resistance levels at 519 and 525 yuan/barrel [5]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: The FU2509 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 2997 and 2978 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 3065 and 3080 yuan/ton [5]. - **Natural Rubber Futures**: The RU2509 contract is likely to fluctuate strongly on June 25, attacking resistance levels at 13790 and 13950 yuan/ton, with support levels at 13660 and 13600 yuan/ton [7]. - **Pulp Futures**: The SP2509 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 5072 and 4994 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 5136 and 5150 yuan/ton [7]. Macro News and Trading Tips - A grand military parade will be held in Beijing on September 3 to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War [8]. - Six departments including the central bank jointly issued a guiding opinion on financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, with a 500 billion yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care [8]. - The 2025 Summer Davos Forum opened, and most economists at the forum's chief economist briefing noted the stable performance of the Chinese economy, with an expected growth rate of over 5% in the second half of the year [8]. - The central bank will conduct 300 billion yuan of MLF operations on June 25, with a net MLF injection of 118 billion yuan in June, and a total net injection of medium - term liquidity of 318 billion yuan after including the 200 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations [9]. - Many experts expect the central bank to continue to cut interest rates and reserve requirements in the second half of the year, with a possible interest rate cut of up to 30 basis points and a reserve requirement cut of up to 0.5 percentage points [9]. - When receiving personal pensions, individuals need to pay 3% personal income tax on the amount received, regardless of whether it is principal or investment income [9]. - The second review draft of the revised Anti - Unfair Competition Law plans to regulate unfair competition behaviors such as infringement of data rights and malicious transactions [9]. - The EU restricts Chinese enterprises' participation in its medical device public procurement, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce strongly opposes it [10]. - Israel and Iran agreed to a full - scale cease - fire [10]. - Global central banks are considering shifting funds from the US dollar to gold, the euro, and the RMB [10]. - Fed Chairman Powell said the Fed is in a favorable position to wait patiently before adjusting its monetary policy stance, but he does not rule out an earlier interest rate cut [10]. - Fed's Kashkari said the Fed may cut interest rates even if inflation remains high if the labor market deteriorates significantly [11]. - The US banking industry is about to receive the most significant capital relaxation since 2008 [11]. - The US current account deficit in the first quarter soared to a record high of $450.2 billion, and the goods trade deficit reached a record high of $466 billion [12]. - The US consumer confidence index in June unexpectedly dropped to 93 [12]. Commodity Futures - related Information - Domestic commodity futures fell across the board in night trading, with energy products leading the decline. Crude oil fell 9.27%, fuel oil fell 6.05%, etc. [12]. - International oil prices dropped sharply on June 24, with US crude oil futures down 5.11% and Brent crude oil futures down 5.19% [12]. - International precious metal futures generally fell on June 24, with COMEX gold futures down 1.66% and COMEX silver futures down 0.88% [13]. - Most London base metals fell on June 24, with LME aluminum down 0.79% and LME tin down 0.71% [13]. - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on June 24, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar reached its highest level since November 2024 [13]. - The US dollar index fell on June 24, and non - US currencies generally rose [14]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On June 24, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures all showed upward trends, with increased trading volume in the A - share market. Many foreign asset management institutions are optimistic about the structural opportunities in the Chinese market [14][17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On June 24, the main contracts of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures fell. The central bank conducted 406.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 209.2 billion yuan [35]. - **Gold Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of gold futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range in June 2025 [42]. - **Silver Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of silver futures showed a slight decline, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in June 2025 and may reach a new high [50]. - **Copper Futures**: On June 24, the new main contract of copper futures rose slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range in June 2025 [55]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of aluminum futures fell slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range in June 2025 [59]. - **Alumina Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of alumina futures fell slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in a wide range in June 2025 [62]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose strongly, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly on June 25 [66]. - **Rebar Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of rebar futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in June 2025 [66]. - **Hot - rolled Coil Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly on June 25 [73]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of iron ore futures fell slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range in June 2025 [76]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of coking coal futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25 [83]. - **Glass Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of glass futures rose, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly on June 25 [85]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of soda ash futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly on June 25 [87]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of crude oil futures fell sharply, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range in June 2025 [89]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of fuel oil futures fell sharply, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly on June 25 [93]. - **Natural Rubber Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of natural rubber futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly on June 25 [93]. - **Pulp Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of pulp futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly on June 25 [97].

美联储博斯蒂克：就业市场仍然稳健，消费仍然有韧性。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing renewed vitality, with significant inflows into thematic ETFs and an increase in public fund layouts targeting specific investment opportunities [1][4]. - Since June 10, over 10.3 billion yuan has been net subscribed to Hong Kong thematic ETFs, with major inflows into sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, technology, and dividends [2]. - Several ETFs have reached historical highs in terms of shares, with notable increases in fund sizes compared to the end of last year, indicating strong investor interest [2]. Group 2 - Long-term capital is increasingly evident in newly established Hong Kong thematic ETFs, with significant holdings from pension products and insurance funds [3]. - The pace of insurance capital involvement has accelerated, with 16 instances of capital injection noted by the end of May, suggesting a shift towards a more rational and long-term investment approach in the Hong Kong market [3]. - Public funds are intensifying their focus on the Hong Kong market, with multiple new thematic index funds being launched, indicating a growing interest in this investment landscape [4]. Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market is perceived as having relatively low valuations compared to other major global markets, making it an attractive investment destination [5]. - Emerging consumer trends driven by demographic changes and evolving consumption patterns are expected to create core battlegrounds in sectors like emotional consumption, cost-effective products, and domestic brands going global [5]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is undergoing a systematic revaluation, while advancements in artificial intelligence are revitalizing the technology sector in Hong Kong [5].

美联储巴尔金：就业市场和消费仍然保持坚挺。 ...

宏观经济分析报告 | | 政策动向等待数据确认 | | --- | --- | | | -宏观经济周报 | | 分析师:周喜 | SAC NO: S1150511010017 2025年6月20日 | | 证券分析师 . | 就外围环境而言,美国方面,尽管与 GDP 联系更为密切的"控制组"零售销 | | 周喜 | 售 5 月环比增速较此前有所改善,但在前期抢购热潮消退下,整体零售销 | | 022-28451972 | | | zhouxi@bhzq.com | 售环比增速还是现近 1 年以来最大降幅,特别是汽车销售成为主要拖累。 | | | 另外,代表服务业的餐厅和酒吧销售额环比增速也出现大幅下降。中美临时 | | 宋亦威 | 关税协议有助于短期消费者情绪缓和,但更实质的劳动力市场走弱风险仍 | | SAC NO: S1150514080001 | 会给消费带来压力。同样,5月工业产出也释放出经济放缓的信号,剔除波 | | 022-23861608 | | | songyw@bhzq.com | 动较大的汽车制造业外的其他制造业产出环比增速连续两月下滑,尚在讨 | 研 究 报 F 周 报 有色金属价格涨跌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures this week was a volatile upward trend, with the 30 - year variety showing a relatively strong trend. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market, and Treasury bond futures may experience a slightly more volatile trend. For trading - type investments, a band - operation strategy is recommended [5][37][38] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Futures Market - This week, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed a volatile upward trend. By the end of the week, the 30 - year Treasury bond rose 0.71%, the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.14%, the 5 - year Treasury bond rose 0.12%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond rose 0.09% [5] Consumption Data - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41326 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year - on - year. The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 184324 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6% [8] - In May, driven by the trade - in policy, the retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture in units above the designated size increased by 53.0%, 33.0%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively. The sales of basic daily necessities and some upgraded consumer goods also showed good growth momentum. The retail sales of automobiles in units above the designated size increased by 1.1% year - on - year [10] Investment Data - From January to May, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 4.0%. Among them, the broad - based infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.42%, the narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6%, the manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%, and the real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% [13] Real Estate Market - From January to May, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing nationwide was 35315 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, and the sales volume was 34091 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% [15] - In the first half of June, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 220,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10% [17] - In May, the sales prices of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month. The sales prices of second - hand residential properties in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points [21] Service Industry and Industrial Production - In May, the national service industry production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year. Among them, the production indexes of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail industries showed relatively fast growth [23] - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 5.7%. The product sales rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 95.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points [26][28] Unemployment Rate - In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the same as the same period last year [31] Capital Market Interest Rates - This week, the capital market interest rates remained stable. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.37%, and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.52%. The average issuance rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.65%, a slight decline. The loan prime rate (LPR) announced on June 20 was the same as last month [34] Market Logic and Trading Strategy - The market logic is that from January to May, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was lower than market expectations, while May's consumption growth was significantly better than expected. Exports maintained a relatively high positive growth, industrial production grew steadily and rapidly, the unemployment rate decreased slightly, and the social financing scale and credit data were close to market expectations. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market [37] - The trading strategy is that trading - type investments should adopt a band - operation strategy [38]

Key Recommendations - Consumption performance is strong, but real estate drag deepens, as May economic data shows retail sales up 6.4% YoY, fixed asset investment up 3.7% YoY, and industrial output up 5.8% YoY [6][8] - The white liquor sector continues to bottom out, with a focus on seasonal prosperity in the food and beverage industry, as the sector index fell 4.37% [11][12] - Insurance companies will fully implement new accounting standards starting in 2026, with a focus on policy expectations from the Lujiazui Forum [15][17] - The price of pesticides is rising, presenting opportunities in the agricultural chemical sector, with a significant increase in the price of a key pesticide [19][20] - Nvidia plans to build multiple AI factories in Europe, indicating a strong demand for AI chips and computing power [24][25] Economic Observations - The online retail sector significantly contributed to the retail sales growth, with a 6.3% YoY increase in online retail sales, driven by the "618" shopping festival and trade-in policies [7][8] - Industrial production showed resilience despite a slight decline, with the industrial value-added growth at 5.8% YoY, still above last year's average [8][9] - Fixed asset investment growth is declining, particularly in real estate, with a cumulative YoY decline of 10.7% in real estate investment [10][12] Sector Insights - The white liquor sector is under pressure due to policy impacts and price declines, with major brands experiencing significant price drops [12][13] - The beer sector is showing signs of recovery as the consumption season approaches, with a 4.8% YoY increase in production [13][14] - The insurance sector is expected to see a long-term influx of capital as new accounting standards are implemented, enhancing market activity [15][18] Industry Trends - The agricultural chemical sector is experiencing price increases, particularly for key products, which may benefit certain companies [19][20] - The mechanical equipment sector is seeing a slight decline in domestic sales but maintains growth in exports, with a 5.42% increase in excavator exports [30][32] - The tire industry is expected to see improved profitability as raw material prices decline, with a positive outlook for demand as weather warms [35][36] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-end liquor and regional leaders in the white liquor sector, with specific companies recommended for investment [14] - In the agricultural chemical sector, companies benefiting from rising pesticide prices are highlighted for potential investment [19][20] - In the mechanical equipment sector, companies with strong global expansion strategies are recommended for investment [34]

2025年第二季度的最后一个月已走完一半的路程，该出预测文章了——根据当前的多项经济数据分析、解读及展望，南生认为：4至6月的我国GDP实际提 升力度将在4.7%至4.9%区间，取个中位数，4.8%吧。 增速预计维持在4.8%左右，主要依赖三大动能 一是企业对非美市场的拓展获得了巨大的成绩，不仅对冲对美贸易的损失，而得到了更多的收益——以5月份为例：中国对印度尼西亚出口上涨16.8%、对 越南出口上涨18.8%、对泰国出口大涨20.9%，对整个东盟的商品出口金额大涨了12.2%。 2025年5月份，我国对法国出口上涨5.9%，对德国出口金额提升了12.3%，对整个欧盟的出口增长了6.4%；对英国出口上涨7.4%，对加拿大出口上涨8.7%， 对拉美各国的商品出口上涨9.4%…… 对一带一路沿线国家的商品出口金额在今年5月份上涨了9.2%，对非洲各国的商品出口金额大涨了18.9%，并推动：我国5月份的外贸顺差金额暴涨至1032.2 亿美元，同比居然激增了40.3%，创新高。 是不是感到很惊讶啊？特朗普的本意是围剿中国，降低我国的外贸顺差，但结果却是：中国的对外贸易继续高歌猛进，单月顺差金额突破了1000亿美元。若 ...

前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙16日告诉《环球时报》记者，5月中国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有 进，作为经济增长的重要引擎，消费超预期增长无疑是其中的重要亮点。不但整体上实现了6.4%的增 长，以旧换新更是带动了家用电器、消费电子等相关产品销售的大幅增长。 国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖16日上午在国新办举行的新闻发布会上介绍 说，在"五一""端午"假期、"6·18"平台促销、消费品以旧换新政策等共同作用下，5月份，社会消费品零 售总额同比增长6.4%，比上月加快1.3个百分点。付凌晖强调，"以旧换新政策带动明显。家用电器和音 像器材类、通信器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额同比分别增长53%、33%、30.5%、 25.6%，合计拉动社会消费品零售总额增长1.9个百分点，比上月提高0.5个百分点。" 彭博社报道称，社零超预期加速增长，助力中国经济在5月平稳度过美国关税带来的剧烈震荡，提振了 中国应对美国政府贸易战威胁的信心。报道还称，5月份的宏观经济数据全面展示了中国如何应对美国 贸易战所引发的动荡局面。 杨德龙表示，近年来，除个别年份外，消费一直是拉动中国经济增长最重要的马车，贡献率 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 贾东旭 摘要 在当前宏观政策积极发力稳增长的背景下，政策性金融工具备受关注。前两轮其成效显著，本轮新型工 具何时可能落地？资金投向又会有哪些新动向？本文分析，可供参考。 短期还有哪些稳增长工具值得期待？政策性金融工具或"呼之欲出"。 4月政治局会议对宏观政策做出新部署，货币政策率先在5月初落地，财政政策方面，政府债发行依旧保 持积极态势，短期内增量可能来源于政策性金融工具。 货币政策上，央行于 5月7日推出三大类货币政策 措施及十项具体举措。财政政策方面，除政府债净融资维持高位外，增量资金来源需关注政治局会议提 出的 "新型政策性金融工具"。 政策性金融工具可能在6月底落地，一方面源于发改委给出的指引，另一方面也和当前经济基本面稳健有 关。 国家发展改革委副主任表示，"力争6月底前下达2025年'两重'建设和中央预算内投资全部项目清 单，同时设立新型政策性金融工具。"另外，当前经济基本面表现稳健，5月乘联会乘用车零售同比 13.0%，出口相关指标也处于较高区间。 同时，5 月份以来，多地积极筹备项目并准备申报，召开新型政策性金融工具政策 ...