经历1月最后一个交易日的史诗级暴跌后，2月2日，伦敦现货黄金、白银开盘跌势暂缓，白银盘中一度实现"由跌转涨"。但涨势维持时间不长，黄金、白 银再陷深跌。 2月2日早盘，黄金、白银集体低开，现货白银一度大跌近8%，随后开始反弹，现货黄金一度重返4800美元，现货白银日内涨幅一度扩大至近4%。9:12左 右，黄金、白银再次出现大跳水，现货黄金失守4590美元关口，一度跌至4583美元，现货白银也一度失守80美元关口，COMEX黄金涨超1%，报4802美 元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨超8%，报85美元/盎司。 | W | | | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 4685.990 | | 昨年 | 4895.118 | | 总量 | | 0 | | -209.128 | -427% 十益 | | 4783.510 | | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4884.784 | 博 仓 | 0 | | 外 雷 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 458 ...

欧元区及德国的经济复苏韧性，为欧元提供阶段性支撑，有效缓解欧元/美元下行幅度。欧洲统计局周五发布的初步数据显示，2025年第四季度欧元区经济 环比增长0.3%，增速与第三季度持平，且高于市场预期的1.2%同比增速，经济复苏节奏保持平稳。 12月欧元区失业率从6.3%微降至6.2%，就业市场供需结构持续优化，为消费复苏及经济增长提供基础。德国作为欧元区经济支柱，第四季度经济环比增长 0.3%，摆脱第三季度零增长态势，同比增速同步高于预期及前值，核心经济体的复苏动能进一步巩固欧元汇率支撑。 目前欧元/美元短期处于多空博弈格局。美元受通胀数据、美联储政策立场及风险情绪改善的支撑，而欧元则依托欧元区及德国的经济复苏动能获得支撑。 周一亚市交易中，欧元/美元汇率虽以下跌缺口开盘，但随后适度回升，逐步靠近1.1840关口，展现出短期震荡整理态势。不过，多重利好因素支撑美元走 强，使得该货币对后续仍面临下行压力，短期走势呈现多空博弈的复杂特征。 美元阶段性走强是压制欧元/美元走势的核心变量。美国最新公布的生产者价格指数（PPI）数据印证通胀压力未改，12月PPI同比增长3.0%，与11月增速持 平，显著高于市场预期的2.7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints Electrolytic Aluminum - In the short - term, due to the sharp drop in precious metals and the seasonal off - season of Spring Festival consumption, the futures price is expected to adjust at a high level. In the long - term, the expectation of two Fed rate cuts remains unchanged, supply constraints exist in the long - term, and the aluminum demand in new fields like energy storage, data centers, and new energy vehicles is growing explosively, so the upward trend of aluminum price remains optimistic [3][8] Cast Aluminum - Cast aluminum continues the pattern of weak supply and demand, maintaining a high - level shock. The supply - side production capacity decreases slightly, the import window is closed, and the supply pressure is not large. The profit has slightly recovered, and enterprises' willingness to ship has increased. The demand side continues to weaken [3][9] 3. Summary by Directory Trading Data | Contract | 2026/1/23 | 2026/1/30 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Aluminum 3 - month | 3173.5 | 3135.5 | - 38.0 | yuan/ton | | SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three | 24395 | 24695 | 300.0 | dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Aluminum Ratio | 7.7 | 7.9 | 0.2 | | | LME Spot Premium | - 3.75 | - 26.66 | - 22.9 | dollars/ton | | LME Aluminum Inventory | 507275 | 495725 | - 11550.0 | tons | | SHFE Aluminum Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 141152 | 145071 | 3919.0 | tons | | Spot Average Price | 23816 | 24336 | 520.0 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium/Discount | - 170 | - 240 | - 70.0 | yuan/ton | | Southern Storage Spot Average Price | 23858 | 24318 | 460.0 | yuan/ton | | Shanghai - Guangdong Price Difference | - 42 | 18 | 60.0 | yuan/ton | | Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory | 74.3 | 78.2 | 3.9 | tons | | Electrolytic Aluminum Theoretical Average Cost | 15883.79 | 15866.81 | - 17.0 | yuan/ton | | Electrolytic Aluminum Weekly Average Profit | 7932.21 | 8469.19 | 537.0 | yuan/ton | | Cast Aluminum SMM Spot | 24000 | 24350 | 350.0 | yuan/ton | | Cast Aluminum Baotai Spot | 23500 | 23700 | 200.0 | yuan/ton | | Refined - Scrap Price Difference - Foshan | 2919 | 3174 | 255.0 | yuan/ton | | Refined - Scrap Price Difference - Shanghai | 3725 | 4088 | 363.0 | yuan/ton | | Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 67892 | 68206 | 314.0 | tons | [4] Market Review Electrolytic Aluminum - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market is 24336 yuan/ton, an increase of 520 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average price of the Southern Storage spot is 24318 yuan/ton, an increase of 460 yuan/ton from last week. The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged, Trump plans to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman, the US government may face a partial shutdown, US durable goods orders increased significantly in November 2025, the consumer confidence index in January decreased, and the trade deficit in November 2025 increased significantly. Iran will hold a military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz. The downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate dropped to 59.4%, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased [5][6] Cast Aluminum - The SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy on Friday was 24350 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from last Friday. The spot price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 was 23700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan and Shanghai increased. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises rose to 58.9%, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory increased by 314 tons [7] Market Outlook Electrolytic Aluminum - The situation is similar to the core view. The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh led to a rise in the US dollar index, the position of SHFE aluminum fluctuated. The supply of new electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia increased slowly, the aluminum water ratio decreased, the aluminum processing operating rate dropped significantly, and the inventory increased. In the short - term, the price is expected to adjust at a high level, and in the long - term, the upward trend remains [8] Cast Aluminum - The situation is similar to the core view. The operating rate of aluminum alloy decreased, the demand weakened, some enterprises stopped production in advance for the Spring Festival, the price of cast aluminum increased rapidly, the inventory of the exchange increased. The supply pressure is not large, the profit has slightly recovered, and the demand continues to weaken, maintaining a high - level shock [9] Industry News - Baitong Energy plans to invest no more than $40 million in Angola to set up a subsidiary for electrolytic aluminum processing [10][11] - Nanshan Aluminum plans to invest about $437 million in Indonesia to build a 250,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project [14] - Emirates Global Aluminum and Century Aluminum will jointly build an electrolytic aluminum plant in the US, with an expected annual output of 750,000 tons [14] - The exchange added two registered aluminum ingot brands with a total production capacity of 1 million tons [14] Related Charts - The report provides charts on LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, etc., which show the historical data and trends of relevant indicators [13][16][18]

Group 1 - The leadership change at the Federal Reserve is unlikely to alter the monetary policy direction in the short term, as the policy response function will remain fundamentally unchanged despite the upcoming transition from Powell to Walsh [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains its baseline expectation of two rate cuts in the second half of this year, contingent on a decline in tariff-driven inflation and a clear downward trend in overall inflation [2] - The FOMC's voting mechanism restricts abrupt policy shifts, as decisions are made collectively rather than by the chair alone, indicating that any significant deviation from the current policy framework would face substantial opposition [3] Group 2 - Productivity will be a key variable in interpreting the implications of low unemployment, high inflation, and strong economic growth, with the FOMC considering cyclical productivity improvements [4] - The overall tone from the recent Federal Reserve meeting suggests a robust economic activity assessment, and further rate cuts are not guaranteed, especially if unemployment continues to decline and spending remains strong [4] - Even with leadership changes, strong consumer spending alongside persistent inflation and low unemployment may lead the FOMC to maintain current rates for the remainder of the year [4]

2026.02.02-02.06 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 沪金期货整体趋势处在强势上涨阶段，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 趋势判断逻辑 上周黄金价格呈"冲高回落"走势。于1月29日创下1249.12元/克的 高点。随后因美联储暂停降息的信号明确，美元指数反弹至9 7 . 1 2，叠 加多头大量获利了结，金价大幅回调，净多持仓显著下降。 短期来看，金价或进入高位震荡阶段。一方面，地缘不确定性、全球 央行购金等长期支撑依然存在；另一方面，美联储政策转向与美元可能 的持续反弹将构成主要压制，且技术面存在回调需求。后市需重点关注 地缘局势演变、美元指数动向及市场资金面变化，警惕避险情绪退潮带 来的价格调整风险。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 沪金合约2604短期谨慎看多，下方支撑位1085－1095元/克，建 议逢低买入，短期高位波动较大注意控制仓位。 本周策略建议 沪金合约2604短期高位大幅回调，上方压力：1115－1165元/克， 下方支 ...

只一夜，黄金从"冲天炮"变成"跳楼机"。 1月29日至30日，全球贵金属市场上演年度最刺激的一幕：伦敦现货黄金刚摸到5600美元/盎司的历史高点，转头就被"按头"砸下去，短时间内暴跌超400美 元；白银盘中跌幅一度达到10%。国内沪金、沪银夜盘同步跳水，上期所紧急发布风险提示。分析师一句"暴涨必暴跌"，突然变得格外扎心。 这次闪崩不是偶然，而是 美联储政策风向、算法交易踩踏、地缘局势降温三股力量叠加的结果。 一、美联储风声突变：第一次刹车踩下去。 这波暴跌的导火索，是市场突然开始押注：美联储关键岗位可能换上更偏鹰派的人选。 这意味着： 降息节奏可能被推迟。 高利率可能维持更久。 黄金这种"无息资产"吸引力下降。 金价前期涨得太猛，本来就透支了宽松预期。当市场意识到"宽松没那么快来"，多头信心瞬间松动，第一波抛售随之出现。 二、算法交易集体踩踏：第二次刹车直接把盘面踩崩。 真正让行情从"下跌"变成"闪崩"的，是程序化交易的连锁反应。 现代市场里，大资金不是人按按钮，而是算法自动执行。当天的典型链条是： 1. 金价从5600美元掉头。 2. 触发第一批止盈。 3. 跌幅扩大，触发更多止损。 5. 流动性瞬间变差， ...

加密货币，遭遇抛售潮！ 凯文·沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席所产生的后续效应，正持续波及并重塑多个资产类别。继黄金、 白银遭遇史诗级暴跌后，比特币、以太坊等加密货币在周末出现大跳水。 比特币需求的持续低迷令人质疑其在更广泛投资组合中的作用。比特币曾被视为动能交易和对冲货币贬 值的工具，如今却难以发挥这两种作用。现货ETF资金持续流出，地缘政治风险并未刺激需求，而传统 的避险资金流入仍然集中在贵金属和现金。 尼达姆分析师约翰·托达罗表示："当前的价格水平反映出散户投资者的兴趣极度低迷"，交易量可能在 未来"一两个季度"持续低迷。 Annex Wealth Management的首席经济学家布莱恩·雅各布森表示，美联储"臃肿的资产负债表加上强硬的 银行监管"，导致流动性被困在华尔街，而非流入实体经济，这曾助长债券、加密货币、金属和"meme 股"等资产的泡沫。 过去24小时内，比特币跌幅一度超过7%并跌破8万美元关口，以太币一度跌超11%。coinglass数据显 示，最近24小时内，加密货币全网合约爆仓超25亿美元，爆仓人数高达42万人，其中超九成为多单爆 仓。 分析人士指出，一些投资者和交易员担心，凯文·沃什可 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced a significant decline after a strong rally, with the April gold futures price dropping below $4,800 per ounce, marking a decline of over 10% [1]. Price Movements - On January 30, the spot gold price fell by more than 12%, reaching a low of $4,682 per ounce, and closed down 9.25% at $4,880.03 per ounce [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also been adjusted downward, with most products seeing a price drop of around 80 yuan per gram within two days [1]. - Major gold brands in China, such as Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang, reported significant price drops, with Chow Tai Fook's gold price falling from 1,706 yuan per gram on January 29 to 1,625 yuan per gram on January 31, a decrease of 81 yuan over two days [11]. Market Reactions - Consumers are responding to the price drop by purchasing gold, with reports of long queues at gold recycling centers and increased buying activity for investment gold bars [1][3][6]. - A consumer in Beijing spent over 200,000 yuan to buy 200 grams of gold, viewing it as a long-term investment despite short-term price fluctuations [3]. - In Nanchang, consumers expressed urgency to buy gold due to recent price declines, indicating a belief that prices may rise again soon [6][8]. Market Analysis - The recent drop in gold prices is attributed to an overheated market, with volatility nearing historical extremes and speculative funds seeking to take profits [14][15]. - The gold price's steep ascent has been rare, with monthly increases exceeding 20% being historically uncommon since 1968 [15]. - Analysts suggest that the market may need time to stabilize and find a new equilibrium price following the recent volatility [16]. Institutional Responses - Major banks, including Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of Communications, have increased risk assessment requirements for clients engaging in gold transactions, reflecting heightened market risks [17][19]. - Other banks have adjusted investment thresholds and trading limits to remind investors of the risks associated with recent price fluctuations [22][23].

那一夜，金银价格突然"跳崖"——真正被吓到的，是普通投资者。 1 月 30 日晚上，很多人正刷着手机，突然看到金价、银价像断线风筝一样往下掉： 黄金一度跌破 4900 美元，白银更狠，直接砸穿 90 美元。 朋友圈、群聊里都是一句话："这是真跌还是系统出错？" 其实，这种"心脏骤停式"行情，最受伤的永远是普通投资者—— 你不知道该不该补仓，不知道是不是要逃，不知道机构到底怎么想。 所以这篇文章，就是写给你这种"想稳住，又怕错过"的投资者。 一、暴跌背后，真正的矛盾点只有一个：未来到底是涨，还是横盘下跌？ 为了回答这个问题，我们得看看最有话语权的五家机构怎么说。 但别担心，我不会给你堆一堆数字，而是告诉你—— 他们到底在争什么，你又能从中得到什么。 5.花旗：现在的金价里掺了太多"风险溢价"。 花旗认为金价现在被各种风险推得太高， 但这些风险（地缘、政策、经济）在 2026 年后可能会消退。 他们提醒别把短期恐慌当成长期逻辑。 二、五大机构的核心观点。 1.瑞银：这不是周期，是结构性大趋势。 瑞银认为黄金的强势已经从"短期行情"变成"长期结构"， 因为全球央行买金的力度太强了，而且还会继续。 他们甚至把 202 ...

1月31日凌晨，现货白银价格一度暴跌36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅；现货黄金价格一度下跌超过12%，盘中跌穿每盎司4700美元，创下40年来单日最大 跌幅。 截至1月31日盘中，伦敦金现货黄金报4860美元/盎司，跌幅超9%；COMEX黄金期货报4907.5美元/盎司，跌8.35%。伦敦银白银现货报84美元/盎司，跌幅 超25%；COMEX白银报85美元/盎司，跌幅超25%。 | 贵金属 [2 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | | 4880.034 | 85.259 | 4907.5 | | -497.126 -9.25% | -30.607 -26.42% -447.3 -8.35% | | | COMEX白银 | SHFE黄金 | SHFE自银 | | 85.250 | 1079.28 | 24832 | | -29.179 -25.50% -117.64 -9.83% | | -5087 -17.00% | 黄金、白银为何出现急跌行情？是否已进入阶段性下行区间？未来走势如何？ 多重因素叠加引发价格急跌 "美联储政策预期突变，沃什料将推行 ...