There's currently a level of discord within the U.S. Federal Reserve that has rarely been seen in modern history. Nearly all experienced market analysts agree that the coming Fed policy meetings could prove unusually divisive, owing to conflicting economic views, political sensitivities and inherent biases. ...

基准10年期美国国债收益率维持在4.08%左右，近期的上涨态势暂时停歇，投资者正密切权衡美联储的 政策前景。目前市场预计，美联储在下周的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上降息25个基点的概率为 89%，且预计2026年美联储累计降息幅度约为0.9%。市场普遍预期白宫经济顾问凯文.哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)可能被提名担任下一任美联储主席，这一预期进一步强化了市场的鸽派情绪。哈塞特此前因支 持加快降息步伐、与特朗普总统的立场保持一致而闻名。 从近期市场表现看，黄金市场在经历10月的历史高点后进入调整阶段，周线图上呈现布林带缩口横盘特 征，5日与10日均线形成死叉，短期空头情绪占优。但这种调整更像是"蓄力"而非"反转"，4200美元/盎 司关口已展现出较强支撑力——12月4日伦敦金现在该价位附近窄幅波动，未出现实质性破位。 日图来看，金价目前处于趋势线阻力下方震荡调整，多头动力减弱，但仍处于众多均线支撑上方，看涨 前景良好，虽有调整及回落风险，但也可视为再度的入场看涨机会，因而，下方关注各均线支撑，进行 低多看涨即可。今日金价上方阻力关注：4250，4280，4300；下方支撑关注：4200，4180， ...

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market is experiencing a significant cooling, with private sector jobs decreasing by 32,000 in November, marking the largest decline since March 2023, and falling short of the expected increase of 40,000 jobs [1][4]. Employment Trends - Small businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 employees, are particularly affected, losing a total of 120,000 jobs in November, with firms employing 20 to 49 people accounting for 74,000 of these job losses [5][9]. - In contrast, large enterprises with 50 or more employees added 90,000 jobs, indicating a stark difference in resilience between small and large businesses in the current economic climate [12]. Wage Growth - Wage growth for retained employees has slowed, with a year-over-year increase of 4.4%, down by 0.1 percentage points from October [2]. Industry Performance - The employment data reveals a broad decline across various sectors, with professional and business services losing 26,000 jobs, the information sector shedding 20,000 jobs, and manufacturing reducing its workforce by 18,000 [12]. - Only a few sectors saw job growth, notably education and healthcare services, which added 33,000 jobs, and leisure and hospitality, which increased by 13,000 jobs; however, these gains were insufficient to offset the widespread declines in other industries [12]. Federal Reserve Implications - This employment report is critical ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on December 9-10, with futures traders estimating a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, despite some officials expressing concerns about further easing [4][16]. - Divergent views among Federal Reserve policymakers have emerged, with some advocating for rate cuts to prevent further deterioration in the labor market, while others worry that additional cuts could exacerbate inflation, which remains above the Fed's 2% target [16].

周三欧洲开盘前，金价在短线反弹受阻后回落到日内区间下缘，但整体仍稳稳处于 4200 美元上方。随 着风险偏好逐步升温，避险需求有所降温，而市场焦点重新转向即将公布的美国多项经济数据，以寻求 有关美联储政策节奏的更明确指引。尽管金价的上行动能暂时不强，但美元的延续疲弱与地缘风险未完 全消散，依旧为价格提供底部支撑。 隔夜美股期指继续走高，显示投资者对风险资产的兴趣在本周中段持续回暖。伴随股市企稳，黄金盘中 的上探动作较易遭遇抛压，短线买盘趋于谨慎。与此同时，市场普遍在 ADP 就业数据与 ISM 服务业 PMI 公布前保持观望态度，使得日内波幅偏窄，整体交易情绪以等待为主。 技术层面显示，金价在 4155—4150 区域曾获得明显买盘支撑，目前 4200 一线仍是短线节奏的核心位 置。若金价成功突破 4245—4250 的压力带，或将打开向 4264—4265 以及 4300 心理点位延伸的空间； 若跌破 4200，预计买盘可能重新介入，而更关键的支撑仍位于 4150 区域。一旦该位置被有效击穿，价 格可能重新回探 4100 或 4075—4073 的技术密集区。 短线交易需关注 ADP、ISM 服务业以及本周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by President Trump regarding the nomination of a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has intensified market focus on the future direction of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Powell's Potential Continuation - Analyst Jim Reid from Deutsche Bank suggests that even if Powell's term as chairman ends, he may still choose to remain as a Federal Reserve governor, a scenario that has historical precedents [1][2] - Powell's term as a governor extends until January 2028, which is beyond his chairmanship term ending in May 2026, allowing him the legal right to continue serving [1][2] - Historical examples include Charles Hamlin, who served as a governor for 20 years after stepping down as chairman, and Marriner Eccles, who remained a governor after being replaced as chairman, both highlighting a commitment to the Federal Reserve's mission [2][3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Independence - Wall Street is currently highly focused on the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially following recent market volatility and the upcoming nomination of Powell's successor [4] - The S&P 500 index has maintained a double-digit increase for the year, reflecting investor reliance on Federal Reserve policies and the institution's significant role in the global financial system [4] - As the nomination approaches, the market will closely monitor the implications of the new chairman on monetary policy and market stability [4]

由于市场参与者在几项关键的美国宏观经济数据发布之前削减了敞口，在周一稳步上涨之后，白银价格 有所回落。 周三(12月3日)亚洲时段，现货白银震荡走高后突然回调，白银价格日内跌幅超1.00%，报57.76美元/盎 司；由于交易员在即将到来的美国关键数据发布前获利了结，白银多头失去动能，本交易日关注美国 ADP就业变动和ISM服务业PMI数据。 【要闻速递】 地缘政治仍是推动避险需求的背景因素。即使白银的看涨势头暂时停止，但围绕俄罗斯和乌克兰局势的 不确定性将有助于维持一定程度的风险厌恶情绪。 【最新白银行情解析】 周二白银收锤子阳线，逼近前高，徘徊于日线布林上轨附近，4小时回踩56.60一线企稳，短线预计现货 银将继续上探59。白银走势下方关注58.10美元或57.70美元支撑；上方关注59.00美元或59.70美元阻力。 美元的温和复苏和美国国债收益率的走强给贵金属市场带来了压力，这种模式在之前的避险情绪中曾出 现过。 尽管如此，由于白银继续受益于广泛支撑的宏观环境，下行空间仍然受到控制。投资者预计美联储最早 将在下周的会议上放松政策，目前市场预计降息25个基点的可能性很大。这种鸽派倾向支撑了对无息资 产的需 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - Black building materials: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; glass is advised to be on the sidelines and not chased higher [1][7][9] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper is for range short - term trading; aluminum suggests reducing long positions at high levels; nickel advises waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver recommends holding long positions and being cautious about new positions; lithium carbonate is expected to trade strongly sideways [1][10][13][15] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, soda ash, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][17][25] - Cotton and textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade strongly sideways; PTA is expected to rise in a sideways trend; apples are expected to trade strongly sideways; red dates are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][26][29] - Agricultural and livestock: For live pigs, near - term contracts are expected to adjust weakly at low levels, and be cautious about chasing rallies in far - term contracts; egg prices are limited in their upward movement; corn suggests hedging on rallies; soybean meal is mainly for range operations; oils are expected to rebound from lows, with a strategy of buying on dips [1][30][35][41] Core Views The report provides trading strategies and market outlooks for various futures products across different industries. It analyzes the fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors affecting each product, and offers corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses [1][5][7] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Stock indices: The external environment has improved, but the market rotation is fast. They are expected to trade sideways in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: After entering December, institutional behavior may be the core variable affecting the bond market. They are expected to trade sideways [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand. It is recommended for range trading [7] - Rebar: It is in a policy vacuum period. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is expected to trade sideways at low levels, mainly for short - term trading [7] - Glass: Although there are rumors of production line shutdowns causing a rebound in the futures market, the social inventory pressure is huge, and the year - end demand is weak. It is not advisable to chase higher in the near - term contracts [9] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The safety situation in Congo (Kinshasa) is complex. The long - term demand is optimistic, but the short - term high prices may suppress consumption. It is recommended for range short - term trading [10] - Aluminum: The macro - sentiment has improved, and it may continue to rebound in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high levels [11] - Nickel: The supply is expected to be loose in the long term. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [13] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply recovery and downstream demand improvement, and for range trading [13] - Gold and silver: Supported by the expectation of interest rate cuts and safe - haven demand, gold is for range trading, and silver recommends holding long positions and being cautious about new positions [15] - Lithium carbonate: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is expected to trade strongly sideways. Pay attention to the progress of Yichun mines and the resumption of production of Ningde Jiaxiawo lithium mine [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading, and pay attention to policies and cost - side disturbances [17] - Caustic soda: The valuation is suppressed by the expectation of alumina production cuts. It is recommended to wait and watch [19] - Styrene: The overseas blending logic cannot change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is expected to trade sideways, and pay attention to the price of pure benzene in January and the change of the crude oil pricing center [19] - Rubber: The market is bearish, and the demand improvement is limited. It is recommended for range trading [21] - Urea: The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. It is expected to trade sideways [22] - Methanol: The supply in the inland has recovered, and the port inventory has decreased. It is recommended for range trading [24] - Polyolefins: The inventory is decreasing, but the demand is insufficient after the peak season. PE is expected to trade sideways in the range, and PP is expected to trade weakly sideways [25] - Soda ash: The supply is in surplus, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to wait and watch [25] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Although the global supply - demand data is loose, the recent domestic cotton sales are fast, and the yarn price is firm, so they are expected to trade strongly sideways [26] - PTA: Affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships, it is expected to rise in a sideways trend, with a focus on the range of 4600 - 4900 [27] - Apples: The inventory is mainly sold as needed, and the price is expected to trade strongly sideways [28] - Red dates: The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is about 80%, and the price is expected to trade weakly sideways [29] Agricultural and Livestock - Live pigs: In the short term, the supply pressure is high, and the demand increase is not obvious. In the long term, the capacity reduction is accelerating but still above the normal level. The near - term contracts are for short - selling on rallies, and be cautious about chasing rallies in the far - term contracts [30][31] - Eggs: In the short term, the supply - demand is marginally improved, and the price has support. In the long term, the capacity reduction takes time. The 01 contract has a large premium over the spot, and the price increase is limited [31][32] - Corn: In the short term, there is still selling pressure, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies. In the long term, the cost support is strong, but the supply - demand is relatively loose, and the upward space is limited [33][34] - Soybean meal: It is mainly for range operations, and spot enterprises can fix the basis for December - January [35][36] - Oils: In the short term, the trends of different oils are differentiated. In the long term, they are expected to trade in a wide range. Be cautious about chasing rallies in soybean and palm oils, and pay attention to Malaysian palm oil high - frequency data and the December MPOB report [37][41]

美联储政策动向直接影响黄金走势。近期降息预期升温曾推动金价突破4100美元，但鲍威尔"鹰派"表态 又引发回调，凸显政策不确定性下的波动特性。若12月降息落地，低利率环境将降低黄金持有成本，叠 加美元走弱预期，金价或延续涨势。因此，交易现货黄金需重点关注美联储政策的变动。 规避风险需从交易习惯入手。着重平台资质核查，优先选择受权威监管如香港黄金交易所且存续十年以 上的机构，避免"黑平台"通过虚假宣传诱导入金。其次强化资金管理，单笔交易不超过本金2%，设置 止损线并严格执行，避免因追涨杀跌陷入重仓困局。再者警惕异常交易环境，若发现频繁断线、价格与 实盘脱节，应立即暂停操作并联系平台核查。 富格林指出，近期美联储领导层变动传闻与降息预期交织，现货黄金价格波动加剧，吸引大量投资者入 场博弈。然而，火爆背后暗藏冻结黑幕风险——部分黑幕平台擅自冻结账户，让投资者血本无归。作为 香港黄金交易所A1类会员富格林提醒，唯有坚守规范交易原则，方能规避黑幕侵蚀，守护资金安全。 以下便为大家分享一些交易策略。 黄金浪潮中冷静比胆识更重要。始终以资金安全为基石，让每一份盈利稳落袋中。谨记规范是铠甲，纪 律作罗盘，方能在风暴眼中行稳致远 ...

格隆汇12月2日｜金价周二从六个多月高位回落，现货黄金日内失守4200美元/盎司，部分原因在于美债 收益率上升和获利了结拖累价格，同时投资者等待美国经济数据以研判美联储政策路径。基准10年期美 债收益率维持在近两周高点附近，削弱了无息资产黄金的吸引力。KCM Trade首席市场分析师蒂姆·沃 特指出："黄金今日表现疲软，但基本面未变——包括预期的美联储降息，从收益率角度看这应会支撑 金价。"市场态度谨慎，预计周五公布的美联储青睐的通胀指标核心PCE物价指数将保持温和。此外， 本周美国关键数据还包括周三的11月ADP就业报告。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced a significant bullish surge, breaking through the 4200 mark and entering an accelerated upward trend, with fluctuations expected around this level [1][3][10]. Price Movements - Gold prices reached around 4260 before experiencing a pullback, with potential support at the 4200 level and further down at 4155 [4][5][9]. - The market is currently facing resistance at 4260 and 4300, with traders advised to watch for shorting opportunities at these levels [6][9]. Market Influences - Geopolitical risks, particularly related to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and statements from former President Trump regarding military actions, have contributed to the bullish sentiment in gold [10][11]. - Economic indicators, including unemployment claims and upcoming PCE, PMI, and ISM manufacturing data, are expected to create volatility in the market [12]. Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to focus on entry and exit points to maximize profits, with a noted emphasis on risk management and following experienced traders for better accuracy [12]. - The gold trading team claims a high accuracy rate of 85% or more, with significant profit potential per trade [12].