美联储政策重心如何权衡？ 当地时间12日（周二），美国将公布7月消费者价格指数（CPI）。 高盛在最新发布的报告中表示，截至6月，美国企业承担了64%的成本。消费者承担了22%的关税，而 外国出口商通过降低出口价格，承担了14%的关税。但这些数字将发生显著变化，到10月，美国消费者 将承担三分之二的成本增长，而外国企业为25%，美国公司为8%。 富国银行认为，价格调整过程仍处于早期阶段，看看更高的进口税最终将如何在最终客户、国内卖家和 外国出口商之间分配。与此同时，消费者日益增长的疲劳感使提高总体价格变得更加困难。该行继续预 计通胀将在今年下半年回升，但不会大幅走高，核心CPI和核心PCE平减指数在第四季度将恢复到3%左 右。 政策前景 种种迹象表明，在4月触及四年低位后，美国通胀指标正在逐步回升。目前外界的焦点在于关税的影响 范围和持续时间，这将影响未来美联储的政策路径。近期，市场越来越相信美联储将在9月采取行动， 并开始为50个基点进行定价。然而，关税推动的价格潜在反弹可能会影响政策宽松的节奏。 商品通胀或进一步回升 第一财经记者汇总发现，华尔街普遍预测，7月份CPI指数将带来关税上涨推高价格的进一步迹象 ...

智通财经APP获悉，高盛集团的研究显示，美国总统特朗普的关税政策对消费者价格的影响才刚刚开 始，这给本已因利率下调预期而动荡不安的美国国债市场增添了更多不确定性。 高盛经济学家Jan Hatzius等人在报告中写道，美国企业迄今承担了特朗普关税的大部分冲击，但随着企 业提高价格，负担将越来越多地转嫁给消费者。 他们写道，截至6月，美国消费者估计吸收了22%的关税成本，但如果最新关税遵循前几年的征税模 式，消费者的负担比例将升至67%。 最终结果是：通胀加速。高盛分析师表示，美联储最青睐的通胀指标之一——核心个人消费支出价格指 数12月同比涨幅将达到3.2%。他们表示，扣除关税后的潜在通胀率将为2.4%。6月份该指数为2.8%。 这份报告进一步印证了经济学家普遍持有的观点：特朗普的全面关税将加剧通胀，而美联储政策不仅对 债券交易员，甚至对总统本人来说都已成为热门话题。特朗普打破常规，公开呼吁美联储降息，建议美 联储主席鲍威尔辞职，并在货币政策委员会中至少暂时增加一名盟友。 美国指南针组织创始人兼首席经济学家奥伦·卡斯在播客中表示："通胀，当然与央行制定货币政策有 关，它涉及整体价格水平的持续上涨。如果你选择一项 ...

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年8月8日 王映(Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 信息平淡下的缩量震荡 市场回顾 今日股指震荡为主，四大规模指数均小幅下降。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落1152.63亿元。期指方面，各 品种均缩量，IC主力小幅上涨，其余期指均回落，多头情绪回落。 重要资讯 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | -0.24 | -0.44 | 0.01 | -0.20 | | 成交量（万手） | 7.5164 | 3.9458 | 6.9645 | 15.7592 | | 成交量环比（万手） | -1.8105 | -0.9004 | -1.8301 | -3.7903 | | 持仓量（万手） | 25.0531 | 8.9786 | 21.4682 | 33.4195 | | 持仓量环比（万手） | -0.9906 | -0.3451 | -0.8103 | -1.1229 | source： wind,南华研究 股指日报现货市场观察 | 名称 | 数值 ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 美国对等关税正式生效，进口一公斤金条已被加税 特朗普提名斯蒂芬·米兰担任美联储理事 俄总统助理：目标是下周举行俄美元首会晤 英国央行降息25个基点，破天荒被迫投票两次 免保育教育费政策覆盖所有幼儿园大班儿童 七部门部署脑机接口产业创新发展 欧洲主要股指涨跌互现，德国DAX30指数收涨1.12%；英国富时100指数收跌0.69%；欧洲斯托克50指数收涨1.31%。 港股下探后回升，午后维持震荡走势，恒指收涨0.69%，重回两万五千点上方，报25081.63点。恒生科技指数收涨0.26%，报5546.73点。截至收盘，恒指大 市成交额2457.48亿港元。盘面上，电池股、稀土概念股涨幅居前，脑机接口概念股尾盘拉升；医药外包概念股领跌，药明系走低，军工股、药品股回调。 个股方面，南京熊猫电子股份(00553.HK)涨19.2%，曹操出行(02643.HK)涨18%，脑洞科技(02203.HK)涨9.3%，新世界发展(00017.HK)涨10.2%，天齐锂业 (0969 ...

高盛、花旗高喊50基点降息不无可能之际，美银却劝大家冷静。 据追风交易台消息，8月6日，美银在研报中警告，美国持续的通胀风险，特别是核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数可能很快突破3%的关口，使得美联 储任何过早的降息都可能是一次"虚假启动"。 该行因此维持其对美联储今年将维持利率不变的判断。报告指出，尽管近期就业数据有所放缓，但美联储面临的根本问题是通胀。核心PCE通胀年率在过 去一年里基本停滞在2.8%，较美联储2%的目标高出80个基点。 美银模拟测算显示，核心PCE通胀年率最早可能在7月就触及3%的水平。他们认为，随着关税成本越来越多地转嫁给消费者，通胀前景的风险"坚定地偏 向上行"，这要求美联储在决定下一步政策时必须保持耐心。 这一预测甚至可能都"过于乐观"。该行分析师指出，由于实际生效的关税税率正稳定在高于其当前假设的水平，这意味着通胀见顶的高度可能更高，停留 在3%以上的时间可能更长，并可能引发非线性效应，给通胀预期带来上行压力。 这一判断基于一个核心事实：过去一年，尽管美联储维持高利率，但核心通胀始终未能有效回落，粘性十足。 价格压力凸显 近期美国的经济数据描绘了一幅复杂的图景，但价格上行的压力信 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents overnight market trends, important news, and financial market conditions across various sectors including commodities, finance, and international affairs. It details price movements in global and domestic futures markets, significant macro - economic and policy events, and performance in stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets. Summary by Category Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.08% at $3431.8 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.3% at $37.935 per ounce [2] - OPEC's production increase pressured oil prices, with the US oil main contract down 1.37% at $64.27 per barrel and Brent crude main contract down 1.29% at $66.77 per barrel [3] - London base metals mostly rose, with LME aluminum up 2.30% at $2621.50 per ton, LME zinc up 1.34% at $2795.00 per ton, LME lead up 1.19% at $1997.00 per ton, and LME copper up 0.37% at $9674.00 per ton [3] - Domestic futures main contracts were mixed, with coking coal and alumina up over 1%, and rapeseed meal and caustic soda down over 1% [4] Important Information Macroeconomic News - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange decided to restrict Du XX's account from opening new positions in the corresponding contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures (EC) 2510 contract for 1 month starting from August 6, 2025 [6] - Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko announced on August 6 that three joint mining projects between Ukraine and the US are in preparation and will be implemented in the next 18 months [8] - Trump's advisors are pushing him to appoint interim Federal Reserve governors, and short - term appointments will give Trump more time to choose the Fed chair [8] - Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on goods from India in response to India's continued purchase of Russian oil [9] - Fed's Kashkari said the Fed should respond to economic slowdown, and he still thinks two rate cuts this year seem appropriate, but may pause or even raise rates if inflation rises due to tariffs [9] - Trump will impose a 100% tariff on imported goods containing semiconductors, exempting companies that produce in the US [10] - Trump plans to meet with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky as early as next week [10] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of the week ending August 2, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 948,753 kiloliters to 11,337,392 kiloliters, and gasoline inventory decreased by 12,487 kiloliters to 1,466,814 kiloliters [12] - As of the week ending August 4, the total refined oil inventory at Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 2.024 million barrels to 19.072 million barrels [13] - On August 6, 2025, China's urea enterprise total inventory was 887,600 tons, down 29,700 tons from last week, a 3.24% decrease; methanol port inventory was 925,500 tons, up 117,100 tons from the previous period [14] - Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price of Arab light crude oil for September to Asia, the US, and north - western Europe [14] - As of the week ending August 1, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.029 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a 0.71% decrease; strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 235,000 barrels to 403 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [14] Metal Futures - Indonesia's PT Gresik smelter entered maintenance due to oxygen supply equipment failure, affecting about 20,000 tons of copper production [16] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is soliciting opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law (for public comment)" [16] - From January to July 2025, the total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 29.05 trillion yuan, a 49.24% year - on - year increase [17] - In July 2025, China's electrolytic copper actual output was 1.1944 million tons, a 4.05% month - on - month increase and a 19.58% year - on - year increase [19] - Affected by mine production growth in July, zinc concentrate production may decline slightly in August due to mine maintenance in Sichuan and Yunnan [20] Black - Series Futures - In late July 2025, key steel enterprises' steel inventory was 14.78 million tons, a 5.6% decrease from the previous ten - day period; daily average crude steel output was 1.982 million tons, a 7.4% decrease from the previous period [22] - On August 6, coal supply in Ordos was still affected by rainfall and was in the recovery stage [23] - A coal mine in Lvliang Xingxian completed 106.9% of its coal production plan and 102.4% of its tunneling footage plan in the first half of the year, and plans to produce 5.784 million tons in the second half of the year [23] - Some coal mines received a 276 - working - day production plan notice, and their production is expected to decline [23] Agricultural Futures - From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 19.32% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased by 17.27% month - on - month [26] - Malaysia's palm oil production in July 2025 was estimated to increase by 9.01% to 1.84 million tons [26] Financial Market Stock Market - On Wednesday, A - share major indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.45% at 3633.99 points, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.64%, and ChiNext Index up 0.66%. Market turnover was 1.76 trillion yuan, an increase of about 140 billion yuan from the previous day [28] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.03% to 24910.63 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.2%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.21%. Southbound funds net - bought nearly HK$9.5 billion [28] - As of August 6, 258 stocks in A - shares had doubled in price this year, with Shangwei New Materials leading with a more than 12 - fold increase [28] - In July, the number of private securities product filings reached 1298, a 18% month - on - month increase, a 27 - month high [30] - iQiyi responded that it has no more information regarding its potential HK$300 million listing in Hong Kong [31] - Uni - President China's first - half revenue was 17.087 billion yuan, a 10.6% year - on - year increase; net profit was 1.287 billion yuan, a 33.24% year - on - year increase [32] Industry News - In August, the retail industry prosperity index was 50.1%, a 0.5 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [33] - Shanghai issued a development plan for the embodied intelligence industry, aiming for a core industry scale of over 50 billion yuan by 2027 [33] - In the first half of this year, China's industrial and service robot production increased by 35.6% and 25.5% respectively year - on - year [33] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is soliciting opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law (for public comment)" [34] - The Securities Association of China is seeking opinions on the "Standard for the Stability Assurance System of the Securities Industry Information System (for public comment)" [35] - In July, the national passenger car retail sales were 1.834 million units, a 7% year - on - year increase; new energy vehicle retail sales were 1.003 million units, a 14% year - on - year increase, with a penetration rate of 54.7% [37] - Starting from August 4, express delivery prices in Guangdong increased by 0.4 yuan per ticket [37] Overseas News - Trump plans to meet with Putin and Zelensky as early as next week to promote a cease - fire in Ukraine [38] - Fed's Daly said policy adjustment may be needed in the next few months, and the labor market has softened [38] - Fed's Kashkari still expects two rate cuts this year, and the impact of tariffs on inflation is unclear [38] - South Korea will implement a temporary visa - free policy for Chinese group tourists from September 29, 2025, to June 30, 2026 [39] - In July, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [40] - The German government plans to set up a €100 billion investment fund for strategic industries [41] - Japan's nominal wage in June increased by 2.5% year - on - year, the largest increase since February [43] - As of January 1, Japan's population was 120.6532 million, a decrease of about 908,000 from the previous year [44] - The Reserve Bank of India kept the benchmark interest rate at 5.5% and maintained a "neutral" policy stance [45] International Stock Markets - US major indices rose, with the Dow up 0.18%, S&P 500 up 0.73%, and Nasdaq up 1.21%. Apple and Walmart led the gains in the Dow [46] - European major indices rose, with the German DAX up 0.33%, French CAC40 up 0.18%, and UK FTSE 100 up 0.24% [46] - Morgan Stanley believes that US stocks may adjust in the third quarter, but the bull market is not over [46] - NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang sold about 225,000 shares, cashing out about $39.78 million [47] - McDonald's Q2 revenue was $6.84 billion, a 5.4% year - on - year increase; same - store sales increased by 3.8% [49] - Disney's Q3 revenue was $23.65 billion, a 2.1% year - on - year increase, and it raised its full - year EPS forecast [49] - Uber's Q2 revenue was $12.7 billion, a 18% year - on - year increase, and it announced a new $20 billion share repurchase plan [50] - Honda's Q1 net profit was 196.6 billion yen, a 50.2% year - on - year decrease, but it raised its full - year net profit forecast [50] - Novo Nordisk's Q2 sales were 76.857 billion Danish kroner, a 13% year - on - year increase, but it lowered its full - year sales and profit growth forecasts [50] Commodity Market - Gold inventory in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses reached a record high, driven by arbitrage trading [51] - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold down 0.08% and COMEX silver up 0.3% [51] - Oil prices fell due to OPEC's production increase and weak US economic data [53] - London base metals mostly rose, supported by the Fed's loose policy expectations but pressured by tariff uncertainties [53] Bond Market - In the domestic inter - bank market, major interest - rate bond yields mostly declined, and the bond market is in a wait - and - see period [54] - US Treasury yields were mixed, with short - term yields down and long - term yields up due to Fed's comments and tariff uncertainties [54] Foreign Exchange Market - On Wednesday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1900, down 24 points from the previous day [55] - The Hong Kong dollar triggered the "weak - side convertibility undertaking", and the HKMA bought HK$8.439 billion [56] - The US dollar index fell 0.55%, and most non - US currencies rose [58]

Core Insights - The recent employment data signals a potential weakening in the U.S. labor market, contrary to the prevailing perception of strength [1][3] - Goldman Sachs has revised down the non-farm employment numbers for May and June by a total of 258,000, marking the largest two-month adjustment since 1968 [1][3] - A significant downward revision of 550,000 to 950,000 is anticipated in the upcoming annual benchmark revision, which could reshape market views on labor market strength [1][4] Employment Data Adjustments - The monthly adjustment of 258,000 alters the market's assessment of employment growth for May and June, revealing cracks in the narrative of continuous job expansion [3][4] - The scale of the upcoming benchmark revision is expected to be unprecedented, potentially ten times larger than the previous adjustment of 50,000 in January 2023 [4] Diverging Indicators - Other employment-related indicators, such as the NFIB small business survey, JOLTS job openings data, and the ECI employment cost index, are showing signs of fatigue, indicating a slowdown in hiring and job demand [5] - This inconsistency in data is raising concerns in the market regarding the robustness of the labor market [5] Implications for Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has previously relied on the narrative of a strong labor market to justify maintaining high interest rates; however, if the downward revisions are confirmed, it may necessitate a reassessment of economic resilience [5][6] - Current market expectations suggest a high probability (over 90%) that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates in September, which could accelerate if the labor market is found to be overestimated [6] Economic Outlook - The lagging effects of consecutive interest rate hikes over the past two years may be starting to manifest in the labor market, potentially leading to more dovish sentiments [7] - The downward revision of non-farm data challenges market consensus and could exert pressure on expectations for a soft landing of the U.S. economy, adding complexity to future Federal Reserve policy decisions [7]

Global Macro Research July 28th, 2025 Global Macro Outlook and Strategy Global Rates, Commodities, Currencies and Emerging Markets Luis Oganes AC (44-20) 7742-1420 luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures. {[{xTcfaSlj-ZSQMv-ljRpIMxvnV4Hvzpq0m2y4UWxbhza8RsCuHxXXMw}]} Overall summary US Rates We hold tactical 5s20s steepeners ahead of refunding. We think Treasury will increase coupon auction size increases in ...

美元指数走软背景下，人民币兑美元汇率继续走强 （大公文汇网记者 倪巍晨 上海报道）美元指数走软背景下，人民币兑美元汇率继续走强。8月4日，人民币中间价报 7.1395，较上一交易日调升101点，升幅为今年1月21日以来最劲，离岸与在岸人民币兑美元早盘也均收复7.2关。分析 称，美国最新非农就业数据断崖式下跌，加剧市场对美国经济衰退的忧虑，美元指数也终结反弹，这是人民币兑美元汇 率走强的主因。同时，中美最新贸易谈判取得积极进展，以及二季度中国经济超预期表现，也为人民币汇率保持基本均 衡提供支撑，下半年人民币汇率或续偏强，年末汇价有望升见7.1。 市场数据显示，人民币兑美元汇率中间价从6月末的7.1586升至7月末的7.1494，呈现偏强势头。瑞银财富管理投资总监 办公室（CIO）指出，近期中国政府放宽境外投资额度、扩容「债券通」项下「南向通」，并鼓励在跨境贸易中更多使 用人民币，一系列举措凸显了金融管理部门对人民币日益增强的支持态度。与此同时，二季度中国GDP同比增速优于预 期，加之强劲的出口势头及中美关税风险的缓和，宏观形势为人民币汇率提供支撑。该团队强调，年内美元DXY指数 已下跌10.5%，同期人民币仅上 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international cotton price maintains a weak consolidation trend due to factors such as the continuous loosening of global cotton supply - demand and weak export demand for US cotton. The market sentiment is low because of the Sino - US tariff negotiation. - In the domestic market, although the commercial cotton inventory is de - stocking well, it is still at a high level. With the high possibility of a new cotton bumper harvest this year and the weak demand, the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited. [16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose 0.66%, closing at 13,675 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Affected by factors such as the extension of Sino - US tariff measures and the expectation of a bumper harvest, the US cotton fell 1.19% overnight, closing at 66.42 cents/pound on ICE. [2] 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - As of July 30, 2025, the total number of cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 9,032 (-123), including 8,684 (-123) registered warehouse receipts and 348 (+0) valid forecasts. - As of July 31, 2025, the national new cotton picking and delivery were basically completed. The national processing rate was 100%, the same as the previous year and the average of the past four years. The national sales rate was 97.1%, 7.3 percentage points higher than the previous year and 8.3 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. The cumulative sales of lint cotton were 6.483 million tons, an increase of 1.181 million tons compared with the previous year and 1.05 million tons compared with the average of the past four years. - Argentina's main cotton - producing area, Chaco Province, has completed the new cotton harvest, with the national harvest progress reaching 90% and the processing progress reaching 80%. - As of the week ending July 29, cotton speculators' net short positions increased by 1,467 lots to 52,972 lots. - As of July 24, 2025, the cumulative net signed export of US cotton in the 2024/25 season was 2.783 million tons, reaching 108.35% of the annual expected export volume, and the cumulative shipment was 2.593 million tons, with a shipment rate of 93.17%. [3][4][5] 3.3 Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton and yarn import profits, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions. [7][10][14][15] 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the US unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2% in July, and the labor participation rate continued to decline. The "pseudo - unemployment" phenomenon may delay the Fed's policy shift. Although the GDP increased by 3% in the second quarter, the deterioration of the employment market has made investors bet on the Fed to start a cycle of interest rate cuts in advance. - The international cotton price maintains a weak consolidation trend due to factors such as the continuous loosening of global cotton supply - demand and weak export demand for US cotton. The Sino - US tariff negotiation has reduced market enthusiasm. - Domestically, the commercial cotton inventory is de - stocking well but still at a high level. With the high possibility of a new cotton bumper harvest and weak demand, the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited. [16]