Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the implementation of a comprehensive policy package by the State Council to stimulate domestic demand through financial and fiscal collaboration, including various loan subsidy policies and support for private enterprises [2][9] - The A-share market indices continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 3.82% at 4120.43 points and the ChiNext Index up 3.89%, indicating a positive market sentiment [2][9] - The average daily trading volume in the stock market surged to 2.83 trillion yuan, with margin trading balances increasing by 78.6 billion yuan, reflecting heightened investor activity [2][9] Group 2 - In the futures market, there was a noticeable increase in both trading volume and open interest for stock index futures compared to the previous week, indicating growing market engagement [3][10] - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved a 16-day consecutive rise, with trading volume surpassing 3 trillion yuan, a rare occurrence in historical terms, suggesting a strong bullish trend [4][11] - The current market position is viewed as having high cost-effectiveness, with recommendations to focus on long positions in stock index futures strategies [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. Core Viewpoints - At the beginning of the year, incremental funds entered the market, the financing scale increased significantly, and the market trading volume expanded rapidly. In the long - term, the policy's support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the short - term, attention should be paid to market rhythm, and the strategy is mainly to buy on dips [10][11]. - There are trading strategy suggestions such as holding a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term and holding IF long positions for six months [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Important news includes policy adjustments such as the cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic and battery products, government meetings emphasizing policy coordination, corporate investigations, international events, and price hikes in the consumer electronics field [10]. - Economic and corporate profit data shows that in November 2025, industrial added value increased by 4.8% year - on - year, retail sales increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year. The official manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1, an improvement from the previous value. M1 and M2 growth rates changed, and the increase in social financing in November was 248.85 billion yuan, with an increase of 15.97 billion yuan year - on - year. In December, the US non - farm employment and unemployment rate also changed [10]. - In the interest rate and credit environment, affected by the rise of the equity market, the 10Y Treasury bond rate and credit bond rate rebounded this week, the credit spread was basically flat, and liquidity loosened at the beginning of the year [10]. - Trading strategy suggestions include holding a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term due to medium - low valuation and long - term discount, and holding IF long positions for six months as a new round of interest rate cuts may benefit high - dividend assets [12]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - In the spot market, most domestic stock indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose, while the Hang Seng Index fell. International indexes such as the Dow Jones Index, Nasdaq Index, and S&P 500 also rose [14]. - In the futures market, various stock index futures contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM all rose, with different increases in different contract months [15]. 3. Economy and Corporate Earnings Economy - GDP: In the third quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, slightly higher than the expected 4.76% but lower than the previous value of 5.2% [32]. - PMI: The official manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1, an improvement from the previous value of 49.2, indicating improvements in production and orders [10][32]. - Consumption: In November 2025, the consumption growth rate was 1.3%, down from the previous value of 2.9%, showing a continuous decline for six months [35]. - Exports: In November 2025, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 5.9% year - on - year, an improvement from the previous value of - 1.1%, mainly due to the month - on - month improvement in exports to the EU [10][35]. - Investment: In November 2025, the investment growth rate was - 2.6%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 1.9%, real estate investment at - 15.9%, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) at - 1.1%, all continuing the downward trend [38]. Corporate Earnings - In the third - quarter report of 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of operating income was 1.24%, and the growth rate rebounded by 1.22% compared with the semi - annual report. The year - on - year growth rate of net profit was 3.89%, and the growth rate rebounded by 1.83% compared with the semi - annual report [41]. 4. Interest Rate and Credit Environment Interest Rate - Affected by the rise of the equity market, the 10Y Treasury bond rate and credit bond rate rebounded this week [10]. Credit Environment - In November 2025, the M1 growth rate was 4.9%, down from the previous value of 6.2%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.2%, up from the previous value of 8.0%, mainly affected by the base and the reduction of fiscal transfer payments. The increase in social financing in November was 248.85 billion yuan, with an increase of 15.97 billion yuan year - on - year, mainly due to the growth of short - and medium - term corporate financing [10][57]. 5. Capital Flow Inflow - This week, the newly established share of equity - biased funds was about 6.992 billion, showing a decline compared with the previous period [63]. - This week, the new margin trading balance in the two markets was about 8.5775 billion yuan, and the latest balance was 260.9921 billion yuan, reaching a new high [66]. Outflow - This month, major shareholders' shareholding reductions remained at a relatively high level. The number of IPO approvals was 3, showing an increasing trend recently [69]. 6. Valuation - The price - to - earnings ratio (TTM): The Shanghai 50 was 12.01, the CSI 300 was 14.41, the CSI 500 was 36.43, and the CSI 1000 was 49.38. - The price - to - book ratio (LF): The Shanghai 50 was 1.32, the CSI 300 was 1.52, the CSI 500 was 2.51, and the CSI 1000 was 2.63 [73].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周五（1月9日）纽约尾盘，标普500股指期货最终涨0.60%，道指期货涨0.47%，纳斯达克 100股指期货涨0.96%。罗素2000股指期货涨0.77%。 ...

宏 观 及 期 指 点 评 2025 年 1 月 9 日 股指期货 IC2603 和 IM2603 合约均创下上市以来新高 IF2603 偏强震荡 IH2603 震荡整理 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成 具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作 出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【行情前瞻要点】 1 月 9 日，股指期货主力合约 IF2603、IH2603、IC2603 和 IM2603 小幅高开；开盘后，继续震荡上行。 IC2603 创下 2015 年 7 月 20 日上市以来新高 8020.6 点，IM2603 再创 2022 年 7 月 22 日上市以来新高 8016.0 点。IC2603 和 IM2603 震荡偏强上行，涨幅明显大于 IF2603 和 IH2603。2025 年 12 月，CPI 同比上涨 0.8%， 预期上涨 0.75%，环比上涨 0.2%；PP ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the performance of multiple stock indices on January 08th, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300, along with the impact of various sectors on these indices and the basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures [1][2][13] 3. Summary by Directory Index Trends - On January 08th, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to close at 4082.98 points, with a trading volume of 1183.189 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.51% to close at 13959.48 points, with a trading volume of 1617.077 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 rose 0.82% with a trading volume of 605.389 billion yuan, opening at 7886.81, closing at 7971.59, with a high of 7993.63 and a low of 7886.63 [1] - The CSI 500 rose 0.25% with a trading volume of 564.453 billion yuan, opening at 7853.21, closing at 7894.54, with a high of 7938.59 and a low of 7849.07 [1] - The CSI 300 fell 0.82% with a trading volume of 630.656 billion yuan, opening at 4761.01, closing at 4737.65, with a high of 4765.49 and a low of 4717.01 [1] - The SSE 50 fell 0.73% with a trading volume of 187.896 billion yuan, opening at 3137.81, closing at 3122.06, with a high of 3142.85 and a low of 3107.02 [1] Impact of Sector Movements on Indices - The CSI 1000 rose 65.17 points from the previous close, with sectors such as National Defense and Military Industry, Electronics, and Medicine and Biology significantly pulling the index up [2] - The CSI 500 rose 19.46 points from the previous close, with sectors like National Defense and Military Industry, Computer, and Power Equipment pulling the index up, while Basic Chemicals, Non - Banking Finance, and Non - Ferrous Metals pulling it down [2] - The CSI 300 fell 39.02 points from the previous close, with National Defense and Military Industry pulling the index up, and Banking, Telecommunications, and Non - Banking Finance pulling it down [2] - The SSE 50 fell 23.06 points from the previous close, with Electronics and National Defense and Military Industry pulling the index up, and Food and Beverage, Banking, and Non - Banking Finance pulling it down [2] Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, the average daily basis of IM00 is - 12.56, IM01 is - 80.65, IM02 is - 139.25, and IM03 is - 366.77 [13] - For IC contracts, the average daily basis of IC00 is 0.82, IC01 is - 38.69, IC02 is - 68.42, and IC03 is - 242.22 [13] - For IF contracts, the average daily basis of IF00 is 1.09, IF01 is - 9.71, IF02 is - 18.24, and IF03 is - 64.07 [13] - For IH contracts, the average daily basis of IH00 is - 1.29, IH01 is - 1.76, IH02 is - 0.97, and IH03 is - 9.84 [13]

Group 1: Precious Metals Investment Rating No specific investment rating provided in the report. Core View - Gold: After the pre - holiday capital quickly left the market and the price corrected, the future market may focus on the impact of US economic data such as non - farm payrolls on the Fed's policy and geopolitical disturbances. Hold gold long positions above $4300 and pay attention to the recovery of the gold - silver ratio [1]. - Silver: Long - position funds increased holdings through ETFs and physical delivery, driving the price to run strongly. The global inventory shortage may not be truly resolved, but high prices may suppress industrial demand. After the "irrational" upward trend ends, pay attention to the possible callback caused by the global commodity index rebalancing. It is recommended to maintain a light - position and low - buying strategy above $70 [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by funds, their values are being reshaped due to strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals and undervalued prices compared to gold. They are expected to continue to rise in the medium - to - long - term. In the short - term, as market speculative sentiment weakens, it is recommended to buy platinum and palladium on dips near the 20 - day moving average, and try to short the platinum - palladium ratio as palladium is relatively stronger [1]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: On January 8, 2026, the AU2602 contract closed at 997.94 yuan/gram, down 0.10% from the previous day; the AG2604 contract closed at 18,450 yuan/kg, down 4.35%; the PT2606 contract closed at 575.00 yuan/gram, down 3.93%; the PD2606 contract closed at 460.70 yuan/gram, down 3.20% [1]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: The COMEX gold主力 contract closed at $4487.90 on January 8, up 0.47% from the previous day; the COMEX silver主力 contract closed at $76.69, down 1.65%; the NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at $2282.60, down 0.34%; the NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at $1833.50, up 0.91% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at $4477.56 on January 8, up 0.48% from the previous day; London silver was at $76.97, down 1.66%; spot platinum was at $2267.45, down 1.33%; spot palladium was at $1780.26, up 1.40%. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 995.86 yuan/gram, down 0.33%; silver T + D was at 18,338 yuan/kg, down 5.30%; platinum 9995 was at 580 yuan/gram, down 4.26% [1]. - **Basis**: The gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 basis was - 2.08, down 2.38 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 69.00%; the silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 basis was - 112, down 187 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 0.00% [1]. - **Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio was 58.52, up 2.16% from the previous day; the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio was 54.09, up 4.45%; the NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.24, down 1.24%; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio was 1.25, down 0.75% [1]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.19%, up 1.0% from the previous day; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.49%, up 0.6%; the 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.92%, up 2.1%. The US dollar index was 98.86, up 0.12%; the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9823, down 0.16% [1]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 97,653, unchanged from the previous day; silver inventory was 637,647 kg, up 15.22%. The COMEX gold inventory was 36,387,376, down 0.04%; silver inventory was 442,479,414, down 0.73%. The SPDR Gold ETF position was 1067, unchanged; the SLV Silver ETF position was 16,215, up 0.72% [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Investment Rating No specific investment rating provided in the report. Core View No core view explicitly mentioned in the provided content. Summary by Related Catalog - **Basis**: On January 8, 2026, the TS basis was 1.3950, with a change of 0.0071 from the previous day; the TF basis was 1.4169, with a change of 0.0051; the T basis was 1.4579, with a change of 0.0267; the TL basis was 1.4116, with a change of 0.0279 [3]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: For TS, the spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts was - 0.0360, with a change of - 0.0060; for TF, the spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts was 0.0000, with a change of - 0.0100; for T, the spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts was 0.0950, with a change of 0.0400; for TL, the spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts was - 0.1500, with a change of 0.0200 [3]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The spread between TS and TF was - 0.0740; between TS and T was - 5.4320; between TF and T was - 2.1900; between TS and TL was - 8.6420; between TF and TL was - 5.4000; between T and TL was - 3.2100 [3]. Group 3: Container Shipping Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating provided in the report. Core View No core view explicitly mentioned in the provided content. Summary by Related Catalog - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European route) was 1312.71 points on October 27, up 15.11% from October 20; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1107.32 points, up 28.24%. The SCFI composite index was 1656.32 points on October 24, up 6.66% from October 17; the SCFI (European) was $1246/TEU, up 8.82%; the SCFI (US West) was $2153/FEU, up 11.21%; the SCFI (US East) was $3032, up 6.27% [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: On January 8, 2026, the EC2602 (main contract) was 1706.0 points, down 4.11% from the previous day; the basis of the main contract was - 214.7, up 5.6 from the previous day, with a change of - 2.54% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply was 3369.52 million TEU on January 8, up 0.00% from the previous day. The port on - time rate in Shanghai in December was 40.00%, down 18.50% from November; the port call volume in Shanghai was 345.00, up 5.83%. The monthly export amount was $3303.51 billion, up 8.23%. The euro - zone composite PMI in December was 51.50, down 2.46% from November; the EU consumer confidence index was - 13.70, down 0.74%; the US manufacturing PMI was 47.90, down 0.62%. The G7 group's OECD composite leading indicator was 100.57 in December, up 0.06% from November [6]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Investment Rating No specific investment rating provided in the report. Core View No core view explicitly mentioned in the provided content. Summary by Related Catalog - **Spot - Futures Spread**: The IF spot - futures spread was - 19.25, up 4.41 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 51.20% and an all - time historical percentile of 24.70%; the IH spot - futures spread was 0.34, up 1.66, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 68.40% and an all - time historical percentile of 58.20%; the IC spot - futures spread was - 80.14, down 7.66, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 34.40% and an all - time historical percentile of 6.50%; the IM spot - futures spread was - 150.99, down 43.72, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 40.00% and an all - time historical percentile of 8.70% [9]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: For IF, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts was - 11.60, up 0.20; the spread between the quarterly - month and current - month contracts was - 19.40, up 0.40. For IH, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts was - 0.80, up 1.40; the spread between the quarterly - month and current - month contracts was 0.80, up 1.40. For IC, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts was - 40.20, down 2.00; the spread between the quarterly - month and current - month contracts was - 75.00, down 8.00. For IM, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts was - 73.60, down 5.40; the spread between the quarterly - month and current - month contracts was - 133.40, down 9.20 [9]. - **Inter - variety Ratio**: The ratio of CSI 500/CSI 300 was 1.6663, up 0.0177, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 99.50% and an all - time historical percentile of 75.30%; the ratio of CSI 500/SSE 50 was 2.5286, up 0.0247, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 99.50% and an all - time historical percentile of 79.60%; the ratio of CSI 300/SSE 50 was 1.5175, down 0.0013, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 69.60% and an all - time historical percentile of 87.70%; the ratio of CSI 1000/CSI 300 was 1.6826, up 0.0274, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 96.70% and an all - time historical percentile of 61.60% [9].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策利好预期与资金净流入趋势 不变 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均延续震荡盘整。沪深京三市成交额 28262 亿元，较上日缩量 553 亿元。股 指大幅上行之后，技术面上需要一定时间震荡整 ...

每经AI快讯，周四（1月8日）纽约尾盘，标普500股指期货最终涨0.15%，道指期货涨0.70%，纳斯达克 100股指期货跌0.47%。罗素2000股指期货涨1.37%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 1 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策利好预期与资金净流入趋势 不变 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 服 务 国 家 走向世界 知行合一 专业敬业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 ...

Index Trends - On January 7th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05% to close at 4085.77 points, with a trading volume of 1197.423 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.06% to close at 14030.56 points, with a trading volume of 1656.718 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.53% with a trading volume of 617.917 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index rose 0.78% with a trading volume of 582.741 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.43% with a trading volume of 169.307 billion yuan; the SSE 300 Index fell 0.29% with a trading volume of 664.898 billion yuan [1] Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 41.52 points compared to the previous close, with electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceuticals significantly pulling the index up, while the computer sector pulled it down [3] - The CSI 500 rose 60.94 points, with electronics, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals significantly pulling the index up [3] - The SSE 300 fell 14.02 points, with the communication sector pulling the index up and computer, bank, and non - bank finance sectors pulling it down [3] - The SSE 50 fell 13.64 points, with electronics and pharmaceuticals pulling the index up and petroleum & petrochemicals, non - bank finance, and banks pulling it down [3] Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For the CSI 1000 futures, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 14.37, IM01 of - 79.08, IM02 of - 138.58, and IM03 of - 363.84 [12] - For the CSI 500 futures, IC00 had an average daily basis of 1.57, IC01 of - 35.97, IC02 of - 62.9, and IC03 of - 236.62 [12] - For the SSE 300 futures, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 0.44, IF01 of - 11.71, IF02 of - 18.75, and IF03 of - 63.84 [12] - For the SSE 50 futures, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 1.17, IH01 of - 1.86, IH02 of - 1.01, and IH03 of - 10.37 [12]