Core Viewpoint - The new trade agreement between the EU and the US, which imposes a 15% tariff on most EU goods exported to the US, has led to significant disappointment in the French wine industry, particularly among exporters who had hoped for tariff exemptions [1]. Group 1: Impact on French Wine Industry - The president of the French Wine and Spirits Exporters Federation expressed that the industry had made considerable efforts to secure tariff exemptions, making the agreement particularly disappointing [1]. - The head of a French cognac company stated that the global marketing environment for wine is already challenging, and the new tariffs represent another severe blow to the industry [1]. - The president of the Languedoc Wine Industry Association indicated that US importers will likely demand price reductions, or else US consumers will face higher prices, which could lead to decreased sales volumes [1]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Reports suggest that the new tariffs could result in substantial financial losses for the French and EU wine industries, with previous estimates indicating that a 20% tariff could lead to losses of €800 million for France and €1.6 billion for the EU [1]. - According to the French Wine and Spirits Exporters Federation, the total value of wine exports from the EU to the US in 2024 is projected to be around €8 billion, with nearly half of that being French products [1].

Group 1 - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian exports, significantly impacting India's economy, as exports to the U.S. account for 20% of India's total exports, amounting to $87 billion annually [1][3] - India's largest footwear manufacturer has frozen plans for a new factory due to the high tariffs, indicating the severe impact on local businesses [1] - Fitch has warned that these tariffs could lower India's GDP growth forecast for FY2026, with Bloomberg predicting a potential 60% drop in Indian exports to the U.S. [1] Group 2 - In contrast, the U.S. has delayed imposing tariffs on China, recognizing the complexities of the trade relationship and the potential backlash on U.S. businesses [3][5] - The core issues between India and the U.S. revolve around agriculture and Russian oil, with India unwilling to compromise on agricultural market access due to its reliance on agriculture for 42% of its population [3][5] - China's response to tariffs is characterized by a strong countermeasure strategy, including adjusting tariffs and expanding domestic demand, showcasing its robust economic structure [5][7] Group 3 - India's manufacturing sector is struggling, with a goal of 25% GDP contribution by 2024, but currently only at 13%, indicating a weak industrial base [5][8] - The U.S. perceives India as vulnerable due to its reliance on exports and weak manufacturing capabilities, aiming to leverage this to counterbalance China [8] - China's strong countermeasure capabilities and significant role in international affairs make it a formidable opponent for the U.S., highlighting the importance of economic strength and a diversified industrial base [8]

来源：@第一时间微博 【#美联储公布7月货币政策例会会议纪要#：利率维持不变】当地时间20日，美联储公布了7月份货币政 策会议的会议纪要。会议纪要显示，决定维持联邦基金利率在4.25%-4.5%不变。只有美联储负责监管事 务的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒对于维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变的决定投下 反对票，这两名委员支持将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，以防止就业市场进一步疲软。会议指 出美国经济前景不确定性较高，增长放缓，而贸易关税的影响尚未完全显现。此外，特朗普不断施压美 联储主席鲍威尔降息，并多次威胁解除鲍威尔职务，引发外界对美联储货币政策独立性的担忧。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting minutes indicate that the projected real GDP growth from 2025 to 2027 remains largely consistent with previous forecasts, despite some economic headwinds [1] Economic Outlook - The impact of trade tariffs is expected to manifest later and with a weaker effect, while sluggish consumer spending growth and downward adjustments in population expectations partially offset positive factors [1] - The labor market is anticipated to weaken, with the unemployment rate expected to exceed the natural rate by the end of 2025 and remain above that level throughout the forecast period [1]

Group 1 - Japan's exports fell by 2.6% year-on-year in July, marking the largest decline in over four years, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on automobiles, auto parts, and steel [1] - Despite the drop in export value, export volume increased by 1.2%, indicating that exporters are absorbing tariff costs by lowering prices [1] - Japan's trade deficit in July reached 117.5 billion yen, with imports decreasing by 7.5% to 9.48 trillion yen, driven by significant declines in crude oil, coal, and liquefied natural gas imports [1] Group 2 - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 10.1% in July, with automotive exports dropping significantly by 28.4% and auto parts by 17.4%, although the volume of car exports only fell by 3.2% [1] - The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Japanese imported cars and parts starting in April, and increased steel tariffs to 50% in June, affecting approximately one-third of Japan's total exports to the U.S. [1] - Toyota warned that U.S. tariffs could lead to a reduction in operating profit by 1.4 trillion yen [1] Group 3 - A trade agreement reached at the end of July is expected to reduce tariffs on cars and most goods to 15%, but implementation will take time [2] - Japan's economy showed unexpected resilience in the second quarter, which may support the Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates later this year, although the ongoing impact of U.S. tariffs will be a key consideration [2] - Analysts predict that the Bank of Japan will likely maintain its current policy stance in the upcoming September meeting, as the effects of tariffs on export volumes become more apparent [3]

Core Viewpoint - Investors continue to expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next month, although they have lowered expectations for further cuts this year [1] Economic Indicators - Recent data indicates that while U.S. tariffs have not yet impacted the overall Consumer Price Index, a weak labor market may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish stance [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has increased, and the dollar has appreciated [1] Federal Reserve Meeting - Market participants hope that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will provide clearer insights into the economic outlook and the Fed's policy framework during the meeting scheduled from August 21 to 23 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming [1] Trade Developments - The Trump administration has expanded the list of taxable goods to include hundreds of derivative products and increased tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50% [1] Renewable Energy Sector - The U.S. Treasury has announced new federal tax subsidy rules for solar and wind projects, leading to a rise in solar stocks [1] Bond Market - The yield on 30-year inflation-linked bonds in the UK has reached its highest level since 1998 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska focused on the Ukraine situation and the implications of Chinese purchases of Russian oil, with Trump indicating that the U.S. is not planning immediate tariff retaliation against China for these purchases [1][4]. Background - Trump's "America First" policy, initiated after taking office, has utilized tariffs as a tool to pressure countries buying Russian oil, aiming to cut off funding for Russia's military actions in Ukraine [1][3]. - Since the onset of the Ukraine conflict, India's imports of Russian oil surged from less than 1% to over one-third of its total imports, primarily due to lower prices [1][3]. Tariff Actions - Trump imposed tariffs on countries buying Venezuelan oil as a trial for secondary sanctions, later escalating tariffs on Indian goods due to its significant Russian oil imports [3][4]. - The U.S. has threatened to impose additional tariffs on China, which is the largest buyer of Russian oil, but has not yet acted on this threat [3][4]. Market Reactions - Following Trump's comments about delaying tariffs on China, oil prices fell due to reduced supply concerns [4][7]. - Analysts warn that if India were to stop buying 1.7 million barrels per day of Russian oil, global oil prices could rise significantly [3][4]. Geopolitical Implications - The meeting highlighted the intertwining of geopolitical and trade issues, with Trump attempting to leverage tariffs to pressure Russia while facing potential backlash from allies like India [7][12]. - Both China and India have emphasized their energy security and the legality of their oil imports, indicating resistance to U.S. pressure [4][10]. Future Outlook - The potential for renewed tariffs remains contingent on the progress of the Ukraine situation, with Trump indicating that if no advancements are made, tariffs could be reconsidered [5][12]. - The ongoing dynamics suggest a complex interplay between energy markets and geopolitical strategies, with significant implications for global oil supply and pricing [7][12].

Group 1: Trade Agreements and Delays - Despite agreements reached by the UK, EU, Japan, and South Korea with the Trump administration regarding tariffs, companies are still waiting for the U.S. to fulfill its commitments [1] - Key terms of the trade agreements, particularly tariff reductions on core industries like automobiles and steel, have not yet been implemented, leading to losses in the billions for affected industries [2][6] - The U.S. administration has remained silent on the delays, causing uncertainty among allies about whether this is due to administrative sluggishness or more complex negotiation issues [3] Group 2: Impact on Japanese Automotive Industry - Japan's automotive sector is experiencing significant financial strain, with one manufacturer reportedly losing 1 billion yen per hour due to the current tariff levels [7] - Nissan has indicated that its estimated financial impact from tariffs would decrease from 450 billion yen to 300 billion yen if tariffs are reduced to 15%, but the lack of clarity on implementation timing complicates accurate forecasting [8] - Japanese trade negotiators are urging the U.S. to expedite the signing of administrative orders to alleviate the ongoing financial damage [7][8] Group 3: European Automotive Industry Concerns - The German automotive industry is facing escalating costs due to the lack of clarity and implementation of the trade agreement with the U.S., with costs already reaching "billions" [10][11] - The VDA is pressing for swift execution of the agreement to relieve the significant burdens on manufacturers and suppliers [10] - Delays in the agreement's implementation could lead to retaliatory actions from European manufacturers, particularly from Germany, Italy, and France [11] Group 4: South Korean Automotive Sector Challenges - South Korea's automotive industry is similarly affected, with the current 25% tariff still in place despite a new agreement that was supposed to lower it to 15% [12] - Exports of South Korean automobiles to the U.S. have dropped nearly 17%, and steel exports have decreased over 11% due to the anticipated tariffs [13] - Major South Korean automakers like Hyundai and Kia may face up to $5 billion in additional costs this year, even if tariffs are eventually reduced [13] Group 5: UK Steel Industry Struggles - The UK steel industry is under severe pressure as the U.S. has not yet reduced the 25% tariff on steel imports as agreed, causing significant concern among industry stakeholders [15][16] - UK Steel's representatives have noted a decline in U.S. orders due to uncertainty surrounding the steel agreement, with some manufacturers warning of potential closures if tariffs are not lifted [16] - Technical obstacles related to U.S. requirements for steel exports are complicating the situation, as some UK producers cannot meet the necessary conditions [17][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - 7 - month macro - data showed a weakening pattern in both supply and demand, affected by multiple factors such as demand front - loading from stable growth, policy shift to structural adjustment, downward Kitchin cycle, and weather. Although the current situation doesn't impact the full - year macro - expectation due to the 5.3% H1 real GDP growth, a lack of policy support in stable growth, especially in the real estate sector, may lead to a pessimistic economic outlook [8]. - PTA demand has improved month - on - month, shifting to a sideways market. Pay attention to the impact of the peak season on the industrial chain. Non - mainstream warehouse receipts still suppress near - month contracts, and the 9 - 1 spread is unlikely to strengthen significantly. Polyester's operating rate has been revised up, and the supply side has remained stable recently [9][10]. - PVC is in a weak trend. The newly announced anti - dumping duties in India will affect China's PVC export competitiveness, and the domestic market has high production, high inventory, and weak downstream demand. It is advisable to take a bearish stance and consider the opportunity of going long on caustic soda and short on PVC [11]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Metals - **Gold and Silver**: PPI exceeding expectations has dampened the expectation of interest - rate cuts, causing silver to decline slightly. Gold's trend strength is - 1, and silver's is also - 1 [14][18][20]. - **Copper**: Lacking driving forces, the price fluctuation range has narrowed. The trend strength is 0 [14][22][24]. - **Zinc**: Inventory accumulation has become more obvious. The trend strength is - 1 [14][25][27]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory has supported the price. The trend strength is 0 [14][28][29]. - **Tin**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend strength is - 1 [14][31][34]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum continues to converge, alumina shows a small sideways increase, and cast aluminum alloy is gradually showing off - season pressure. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [14][35][37]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's fundamentals oscillate within a narrow range, and one should be vigilant against news - related risks. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [14][38][42]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances occur repeatedly, and it shows a relatively strong oscillation. The trend strength is 1 [14][43][45]. Industrial Products - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has strong market sentiment, with amplified price fluctuations. Polysilicon has more news - related disturbances this week. The trend strengths of industrial silicon and polysilicon are both 1 [14][46][49]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - risk appetite has not significantly declined, providing support. The trend strength is 1 [14][51][52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in a wide - range oscillation. The trend strengths of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 0 [14][54][58]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: The sector sentiment is weak, and they oscillate weakly. The trend strengths of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silico - manganese are both 0 [14][59][62]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They are in a relatively strong oscillation. The trend strengths of coke and coking coal are both 0 [14][64][66]. Others - **PTA**: Demand has improved month - on - month, shifting to a sideways market. Pay attention to the peak - season impact on the industrial chain. Non - mainstream warehouse receipts suppress near - month contracts, and the 9 - 1 spread is unlikely to strengthen significantly [9][10]. - **PVC**: It is in a weak trend. The Indian anti - dumping duties affect export competitiveness, and the domestic market has high production, high inventory, and weak downstream demand [11]. - **Log**: It oscillates repeatedly [67].

Group 1: Trade Agreements and Tariffs - Despite agreements reached by the UK, EU, Japan, and South Korea with the Trump administration regarding tariffs, key terms, especially for the automotive and steel industries, have not been implemented, leading to significant financial losses in these sectors [1][2][3] - Japan's automotive industry is facing losses of up to 1 billion yen per hour due to the ongoing 25% tariff, with Nissan estimating a reduction in impact from 450 billion yen to 300 billion yen if tariffs are lowered to 15% [2][3] - The EU and the US announced a new agreement on July 27, but the punitive tariffs on German automotive exports remain unchanged, causing costs to escalate into the billions [3][4] Group 2: Industry Impact and Costs - The German automotive industry has reported costs reaching "tens of billions" due to the unresolved tariff situation, with pressure mounting for swift implementation of agreements to alleviate burdens on manufacturers and suppliers [3][4] - South Korea's automotive sector is projected to face up to $5 billion in additional costs this year, even if tariffs are eventually reduced to 15%, due to weak demand and tightening subsidies [5][6] - The UK steel industry is suffering from the delay in tariff reductions, with concerns that if the 25% tariff is not eliminated, some producers may face closure by year-end [6]