Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price is still strong due to the positive attitude from the Sino - US talks, the upcoming US interest - rate cut meeting this week, and the continuous tight situation in the copper mine on the fundamental side, which may widen the copper supply gap [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - China's industrial enterprise profits in September 2025 increased by 21.6% year - on - year, the fastest growth rate in nearly two years. The US "no longer considers" imposing 100% tariffs on China, and the macro - optimistic sentiment and positive expectations for Chinese demand have pushed up the copper price to a new high [1] - Incidents or shutdowns at mines in Indonesia, Chile, and Congo have led to a global shortage of copper concentrate supply. Domestic copper mine inventories have been continuously decreasing, and high TC/RC fees are the main driving force for the rise in copper prices [1] - There is a probability that copper production will continue to decline in November 2025. There are currently 5 smelters with maintenance plans, and the supply of anode plates will remain tight, lacking raw materials for copper smelting [1] - High copper prices have suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and social copper inventories have increased moderately recently. Attention should be paid to whether the inventory accumulation trend will continue [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher but declined during the day [1][4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 60 yuan/ton, and in South China was 0 yuan/ton. On October 27, 2025, the LME official price was 11011 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 24 US dollars/ton [4] 3.3. Supply Side - As of October 27, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 42.6 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.45 cents/pound [8] 3.4. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 35,800 tons, a decrease of 1832 tons from the previous period. As of October 27, Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory was 110,900 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 136,000 tons, a decrease of 575 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 347,700 short tons, an increase of 463 short tons from the previous period [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In September, manufacturing production accelerated, and the PMI rose to 49.8%, with the business climate continuing to improve. The basis shows a discount to futures, and the inventory situation is complex. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average trending upward, but the main position has turned from long to short. Overall, with inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances, the copper price is expected to remain strong [2]. - There are both global policy easing and trade - war escalation factors affecting the copper market [3]. - In 2024, the copper market will have a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - Fundamental analysis of copper shows a neutral situation as supply has disturbances, and the manufacturing PMI has improved [2]. - The basis is - 180, indicating a neutral situation with the spot price at 88190 and a discount to futures [2]. - On October 27, copper inventory decreased by 375 to 135975 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5448 tons to 104792 tons compared to last week, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is trending upward, showing a bullish sign [2]. - The main net position is short after changing from long, indicating a bearish sign [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The factors affecting the copper market include global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3]. Inventory - The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus in the copper market, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [22].

Report Title - Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Copper [1] Report Core View - Sino-US economic and trade negotiation easing and expected tight supply of copper mines support copper prices. The expectation of future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction by the Fed, the preliminary agreement reached in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations, and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline, and pay attention to support and pressure levels for different copper contracts [2][3]. Group 1: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis of Shanghai copper is negative and at a relatively low level, while the monthly spread is positive and basically within a reasonable range. Due to high copper prices suppressing downstream demand and leading to mainly rigid - demand purchases, but considering the Fed's future interest rate cut and end of balance sheet reduction expectations, continuous tight global copper concentrate supply, and more maintenance capacity of domestic copper smelters in October, investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, low - buying arbitrage opportunities for the basis of Shanghai copper [9]. - The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME copper is negative and basically within a reasonable range, and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and at a relatively high level. The ratio of Shanghai - LME copper prices is at the 50% quantile of the past five years. Due to the continuous accumulation of overseas electrolytic copper inventory, but with an increase in the expected number of future interest rate cuts by the Fed and continuous tight global copper concentrate supply, investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME copper [10]. - The spread between near - and far - month contracts of COMEX copper is negative and basically within a reasonable range; the spread between LME copper and Shanghai copper, and between COMEX copper and Shanghai copper is positive and basically within a reasonable range, while the spread between COMEX copper and LME copper is negative and basically within a reasonable range. This is because the inventory of COMEX copper is at a high level and still accumulating, and future South American electrolytic copper may still be transported to the US [12]. - The closing prices of near - and far - month contracts of Shanghai copper show a Back structure, while those of COMEX copper show a Contango structure [14]. - The closure of the import window may limit the import volume of domestic electrolytic copper, resulting in a decrease in the inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded areas compared with last week, an increase in China's social inventory of electrolytic copper, and a decrease in the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange [19]. - The ratio of non - commercial long to short positions in COMEX copper decreased month - on - month. Both non - commercial long and short positions increased, as did commercial long and short positions [22]. Group 2: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The inventory of copper concentrates at Chinese ports decreased compared with last week. The large - scale wet ore spill accident at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia on September 8 may reduce the copper and gold production in 2026 by about 35% compared with pre - accident estimates, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the production (import) of domestic copper concentrates in October. The Chinese copper concentrate import index is negative and decreased compared with last week, and the port copper concentrate out - port (in - port, inventory) volume in the world (China) increased (decreased, decreased) compared with last week [27][29]. - The positive spread between refined and scrap copper in China may boost the economy of scrap copper. Due to restrictions on the export of high - quality scrap copper in Europe, uncertainties in Sino - US tariff negotiations, and a positive spread between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper, the production (import) of domestic scrap copper in October may increase (decrease) month - on - month, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight [30][32]. - The 1st smelting furnace of Jiangxi Keli Copper Industry's 150,000 - ton anode plate project was ignited on August 11. The weekly processing fees for crude copper in northern (southern) China decreased month - on - month, and the rough - smelting maintenance capacity of domestic smelters in October may increase month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the production (import) of domestic crude copper in October [33]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of China's scrap - produced anode plates decreased compared with last week, and the processing fees for anode plates also decreased [35][37]. - The production (import) of China's electrolytic copper in October may decrease month - on - month. Although some new domestic projects are under construction, domestic production may decrease in October. Overseas, due to maintenance and project construction progress, the import volume may also decrease [38][40]. Group 3: Downstream Demand Situation - The capacity utilization rate of domestic refined (recycled) copper rods decreased (increased) compared with last week. The daily processing fees for refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China decreased, leading to a decrease (increase) in the capacity utilization rate of refined (recycled) copper rods. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (increased), and that of recycled copper rod enterprises also decreased (increased). The capacity utilization rate (production, import, export) of domestic copper product enterprises in October decreased (decreased, decreased, decreased) month - on - month [44][46]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory decreased. The capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable in October may increase month - on - month due to stable orders in the automotive wiring harness and expected release of construction and power grid orders [57][64]. - The order volume and capacity utilization rate of China's copper enameled wire increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days decreased. The capacity utilization rate of copper enameled wire in October may increase month - on - month because of stable orders in new energy and transformers, and a warming expectation in the home appliance demand, although high copper prices suppress new orders [61][64]. - The weekly processing fees for China's brass plate and strip decreased, and the capacity utilization rate (production) of copper plate and strip samples decreased (decreased) compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory days decreased (increased). However, the capacity utilization rate of copper plate and strip in October may increase month - on - month due to good demand in new energy vehicles, power, and high - end electronics despite weak demand in home appliances and photovoltaics [66][74]. - The processing fees for China's lithium - ion (HTE) copper foil remained flat (increased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper foil in October may increase month - on - month because of a significant increase in the demand for HVLP ultra - low profile copper foil in the AI field, saturating the orders of many copper foil enterprises [68][74]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper tube samples increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days decreased. However, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes in October may decrease month - on - month due to the slow recovery of demand in the refrigeration industry and weak demand in the real estate and infrastructure sectors [76][83]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rod samples increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days decreased. However, the capacity utilization rate of brass rods in October may decrease month - on - month due to the slow recovery of demand in the refrigeration industry and weak demand in the real estate and infrastructure sectors [78][83].

沪铜早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，9月份，制造业生产活动加 快，PMI升至49.8%，景气水平继续改善；中性。 2、基差：现货85370，基差-700，升水期货；偏空。 3、库存：10月23日铜库存增75至136925吨，上期所铜库存较上周增14656吨至109690吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价维持强势 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政 ...

Group 1 - Copper stocks collectively rose, with China Daye Nonferrous Metals up 10% to HKD 0.099, Luoyang Molybdenum up 7.28% to HKD 17.38, Jiangxi Copper up 4.29% to HKD 35.04, and Zijin Mining up 4.29% to HKD 35.04 [1] - The U.S.-China trade talks in Kuala Lumpur led to a preliminary consensus on several important economic issues, indicating a slight easing of tariff pressures [1] - The Grasberg copper mine has no news on resuming production, contributing to tight copper supply and challenging smelting profit environments, with downstream consumption not meeting last year's levels during the traditional peak season [1] Group 2 - Downstream acceptance of copper prices is gradually improving, with better procurement reported this week [2] - Codelco plans to raise the copper surcharge for the European market to USD 345 per ton by 2026, marking a historical high and reflecting market concerns over tight copper supply next year [2] - The long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive, with the sector's valuation at historically low levels, suggesting a buy adjustment [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report indicates that the macro - sentiment is warm. Copper valuation is slightly bearish, with the global manufacturing PMI showing a downward trend, copper concentrate processing fees providing bullish drivers, and the US dollar index being neutral. Given the expected tight supply of copper raw materials and low inventories in LME and domestic markets, copper prices are expected to remain strong. This week, the reference range for the main SHFE copper contract is 85,500 - 90,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is 10,500 - 11,300 US dollars/ton [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: Spot processing fees for copper concentrates and blister copper have declined, and the supply of cold materials has tightened marginally. Freeport's Q3 copper production was 912 million pounds, lower than 1.1 billion pounds in the same period last year, and sales were 977 million pounds, slightly below the target [11]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 0.4 tons week - on - week. SHFE inventory decreased by 0.5 to 105,000 tons, LME inventory decreased by 0.1 to 136,000 tons, COMEX inventory increased by 0.2 to 317,000 tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 10,000 tons. The domestic Shanghai spot copper premium was 10 yuan/ton over futures, and the LME Cash/3M was at a discount of 26 US dollars/ton [11]. - Import and Export: Domestic electrolytic copper spot imports remained at a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium stabilized. In September 2025, China's refined copper imports were 374,000 tons, and net imports were 348,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 77,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. The cumulative imports from January to September were 2.53 million tons, and net imports were 2.418 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% [11]. - Demand: The operating rate of domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises declined. With the strengthening of the copper price, downstream purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread widened, and the substitution advantage of scrap copper increased, but the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises only slightly increased [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: Copper prices fluctuated strongly. The main SHFE copper contract rose 3.95% week - on - week, and LME copper rose 3.21% to 10,947 US dollars/ton [20]. - Spot Prices: The report provides price data for various copper products such as electrolytic copper, copper wires, and copper rods at different times [22]. - Premiums and Discounts: Domestic copper prices strengthened. On Friday, the spot copper in East China had a premium of 10 yuan/ton over futures. LME inventory decreased, the proportion of cancelled warrants increased, and the Cash/3M remained at a discount of 26 US dollars/ton. Last week, domestic electrolytic copper spot imports remained at a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) rebounded [25]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The spot rough smelting fee TC for imported copper concentrates declined to - 42.7 US dollars/ton. The price of sulfuric acid in East China rebounded, which still had a positive impact on copper smelting revenue [33]. - Import - Export Ratio: No specific analysis of the import - export ratio was provided in the summary part. - Import - Export Profit and Loss: The loss of copper spot imports narrowed in a fluctuating manner [38]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges was 557,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.4 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 0.5 to 105,000 tons, LME inventory decreased by 0.1 to 136,000 tons, COMEX inventory increased by 0.2 to 317,000 tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory was 110,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons. The decrease in SHFE inventory came from Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Guangdong, and the number of copper warrants decreased by 7,778 to 35,071 tons. LME inventory decreased, with the decrease coming from Asian and European warehouses, and the proportion of cancelled warrants increased [41][44][47]. 4. Supply Side - Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output: According to SMM research, China's refined copper output in September 2025 decreased month - on - month, and it is expected to continue to decline in October. According to NBS data, the domestic refined copper output in September was 1.266 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.1%, and the cumulative output from January to September was 11.125 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0% [52]. - Import and Export: In August 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.587 million tons, a month - on - month decrease, and the cumulative imports from January to September were 22.634 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. In September, imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 490,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2%, with cumulative imports from January to September at 4.019 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. Anode copper imports in September were 50,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 32.8%, with cumulative imports from January to September at 528,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6%. In September, refined copper imports were 374,000 tons, net imports were 348,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 77,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.2%, with cumulative imports from January to September at 2.53 million tons, and net imports at 2.418 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In September, the import proportion from Zambia, Chile, Peru, etc. increased, while that from Congo (Kinshasa), the Netherlands, etc. decreased. In August, refined copper exports were 26,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,000 tons, and domestic spot copper feed - processing exports remained profitable. In September, recycled copper imports were 184,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.7% and a year - on - year increase of 14.8%, with cumulative imports from January to September at 1.699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [55][58][61][64][67][70]. 5. Demand Side - Consumption Structure: China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs both rebounded in September, and the manufacturing prosperity continued to improve. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies weakened marginally, with the manufacturing PMIs of the Eurozone, the UK, Japan, and India all declining [77]. - Downstream Industry Output: In September, the year - on - year output growth was seen in the automotive, color TV, AC motor, and power generation equipment industries, while the output of refrigerators, air conditioners, and freezers declined year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative output of power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and AC motors increased year - on - year, while the cumulative output of color TVs and freezers decreased [80]. - Real Estate Data: From January to September, domestic real estate data remained weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all declining year - on - year, and the decline in construction and completion narrowing compared to the first eight months. The national real estate climate index continued to decline in September [83]. - Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates: In September, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises strengthened but is expected to weaken in October; the operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises weakened and is expected to continue to decline in October. The operating rate of enameled wire enterprises increased in September but is expected to decline in October; the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises was relatively stable in September and is expected to remain stable in October. The operating rate of copper tube enterprises rebounded in September but is expected to decline in October; the operating rate of brass rod enterprises rebounded in September and is expected to decline slightly in October. The operating rate of copper plate and strip enterprises slightly increased in September but is expected to decline in October; the operating rate of copper foil enterprises improved in September and is expected to continue to improve in October [86][89][92][95]. 6. Capital Side - SHFE Copper Positions: The total SHFE copper positions increased by 106,072 to 1,167,224 lots (bilateral), among which the positions of the near - month 2511 contract were 208,184 lots (bilateral) [102]. - Foreign Fund Positions: As of September 23, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, with a net long ratio of 12.3%; the proportion of long positions of LME investment funds increased (as of October 17) [105].

Group 1: Core Views - Overseas copper mine disturbances intensify, and domestic smelters cut production due to raw material shortages, increasing the expectation of supply tightness [4] - New copper demand from new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and AI servers is significant. Coupled with power grid investment and automobile market policy stimulus, consumption potential supports copper prices [4] - Domestic social inventories are increasing, and LME and COMEX inventories are also at annual highs, suppressing the upward space for prices [4] - The continuous strengthening of copper prices has led to an increase in the fear of high prices among downstream users. Spot transactions are mainly for rigid demand, and the procurement and sales sentiment index is low [4] - In the short term, copper prices will remain oscillating and slightly strong. The main reasons are that the supply disturbances at the mine end remain unsolved, and the demand increment is clear, but inventory pressure and macro uncertainties limit the increase [5] Group 2: Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Main Contract is 87,720 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.95%. The position is 275,672 lots, with a weekly increase of 60,099 lots, and the trading volume is 174,100 lots [6] - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Index Weighted is 87,686 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.97%. The position is 544,945 lots, with a weekly decrease of 1,295 lots, and the trading volume is 192,281 lots [6] - The latest price of International Copper is 76,660 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.25%. The position is 4,541 lots, with a weekly increase of 43 lots, and the trading volume is 8,629 lots [6] - The latest price of LME Copper 3 - month is 10,817 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.82%. The position is 239,014 lots, with a weekly decrease of 38,282 lots, and the trading volume is 24,037 lots [6] - The latest price of COMEX Copper is 508.55 US dollars/pound, with a weekly increase of 2.05%. The position is 133,167 lots, with a weekly decrease of 1,937 lots, and the trading volume is 45,662 lots [6] Group 3: Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 86,420 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,645 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.94% [10] - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 86,370 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,535 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.81% [10] - The latest price of Guangdong Nanchu is 86,420 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,510 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.78% [11] - The latest price of Yangtze Non - ferrous is 86,510 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,570 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.85% [11] - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous premium/discount is 10 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 45 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 81.82% [11] - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao premium/discount is - 20 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 65 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 144.44% [11] - The latest price of Guangdong Nanchu premium/discount is 0 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 55 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 100% [11] - The latest price of Yangtze Non - ferrous premium/discount is 50 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 65 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 56.52% [11] - The latest price of LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium/discount is - 11.55 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.39 US dollars and a weekly increase rate of 3.49% [11] - The latest price of LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium/discount is 111.99 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 15.76 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 12.34% [11] Group 4: Advanced Copper Data (Weekly) - The latest copper import profit and loss is - 890.28 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 231.8 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 20.66% [12] - The latest copper concentrate TC is - 42.2 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.5 US dollars and a weekly increase rate of 3.69% [12] - The latest copper - aluminum ratio is 4.0724, with a weekly increase of 0.0176 and a weekly increase rate of 0.43% [12] - The latest refined - scrap copper price difference is 3,365.96 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 370 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 12.35% [12] Group 5: Copper Inventory Data (Weekly) - The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 35,071 tons, with a weekly decrease of 7,778 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 18.15% [17] - The total International Copper warehouse receipts are 12,890 tons, with a weekly decrease of 1,628 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 11.21% [17] - The Shanghai Copper inventory is 104,792 tons, with a weekly decrease of 5,448 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 4.94% [17] - The LME Copper registered warehouse receipts are 126,150 tons, with a weekly decrease of 3,750 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 2.89% [17] - The LME Copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 10,775 tons, with a weekly increase of 3,225 tons and a weekly increase rate of 42.72% [20] - The LME Copper inventory is 136,925 tons, with a weekly decrease of 525 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 0.38% [20] - The COMEX Copper registered warehouse receipts are 150,958 tons, with a weekly decrease of 2,646 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 1.72% [20] - The COMEX Copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 196,540 tons, with a weekly increase of 5,492 tons and a weekly increase rate of 2.87% [20] - The COMEX Copper inventory is 347,498 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,846 tons and a weekly increase rate of 0.83% [20] - The copper mine port inventory is 46.8 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 4.1 million tons and a weekly decrease rate of 8.06% [20] - The social inventory is 41.82 million tons, with a weekly increase of 0.43 million tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [20] Group 6: Copper Mid - stream Production Data (Monthly) - In August 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.301 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. The cumulative production was 11.125 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10% [23] - In August 2025, the monthly copper product production was 2.222 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. The cumulative production was 18.575 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.6% [23] Group 7: Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization Data (Monthly) - In September 2025, the total annual capacity of refined copper rod was 15.84 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 65.23%, with a monthly increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.85% [25] - In September 2025, the total annual capacity of scrap copper rod was 8.19 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 25.37%, with a monthly increase of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 1.53% [25] - In September 2025, the total annual capacity of copper plate and strip was 3.59 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 66.24%, with a monthly increase of 1.52% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95% [25] - In September 2025, the total annual capacity of copper rod was 2.2865 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 50.9%, with a monthly increase of 1.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.52% [25] - In September 2025, the total annual capacity of copper tube was 2.783 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 59.44%, with a monthly decrease of 3.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.58% [25] Group 8: Copper Element Import Data (Monthly) - In September 2025, the monthly import of copper concentrate was 2.59 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7%. The cumulative import was 22.66674 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8% [29] - In September 2025, the monthly import of anode copper was 50,135 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 33%. The cumulative import was 578,772 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 15% [29] - In September 2025, the monthly import of cathode copper was 331,885 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3%. The cumulative import was 2,537,977 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 4% [29] - In September 2025, the monthly import of scrap copper was 184,080 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 15%. The cumulative import was 1,698,922 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2% [29] - In September 2025, the monthly import of copper products was 490,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The cumulative import was 4,020,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% [29]

Group 1 - Copper stocks showed strong performance in early trading, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum (+5.18%), China Nonferrous Mining (+4.36%), and Jiangxi Copper (+2.78%) [1] - Citigroup's report indicates that copper consumption growth remains weak, with only a 1.3% year-on-year increase in August, falling short of the strong performance driven by China's solar industry in the first half of the year [1] - Citigroup expects copper prices to rise to $12,000 per ton in Q2 of next year due to stronger cyclical demand, supply constraints, currency devaluation risks, and U.S. arbitrage activities [1] Group 2 - New Lake Futures reported that the recent "15th Five-Year" announcement significantly boosted market sentiment, leading to a broad increase in commodity prices and strong copper performance [2] - The Freeport Indonesia mine incident has resulted in production cuts that exceeded market expectations, shifting the global copper supply-demand balance towards a tight equilibrium by 2026 [2] - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with the Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts and expectations of two more cuts within the year, alongside fiscal stimulus from the "Big and Beautiful" plan in the U.S. [2]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's research report indicates that global manufacturing sentiment remains mixed, with cyclical demand growth facing ongoing pressures [1] Group 1: Copper Consumption and Price Outlook - In August, copper consumption growth was weak, increasing only by 1.3% year-on-year, which is below the strong performance driven by the solar industry in the first half of the year [1] - Citigroup expects moderate growth in copper consumption for the remainder of the year due to a high base effect, but remains optimistic about copper prices rising to $12,000 per ton in Q2 of next year, driven by stronger cyclical demand, supply constraints, currency devaluation risks, and U.S. arbitrage activities [1] - The firm maintains a target price of $11,000 per ton for copper over the next three months, despite short-term pressures from U.S.-China trade tensions and stock market corrections [1] Group 2: Trade Tensions and Market Reactions - The future trajectory of copper prices is contingent upon whether the U.S. and China can meet in the next 1 to 2 weeks to alleviate escalating trade tensions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citi is bullish on copper prices over the next six months, projecting an average price of $12,000 per ton by Q2 2026, with an optimistic scenario of $14,000 per ton [2] Group 1: Market Outlook - Global manufacturing confidence remains mixed, and cyclical demand growth faces pressure; however, copper prices are expected to rebound entering 2026 due to loose fiscal and monetary policies in the U.S. [2] Group 2: Challenges in China's Copper Industry - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign resources in the upstream sector, overcapacity in the midstream processing segment, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [2]