Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing upward momentum due to improved macroeconomic conditions and anticipated production cuts from domestic smelters, with a focus on downstream demand performance [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On Friday night, copper prices in Shanghai strengthened, opening higher and closing with a 2.37% increase [1] - The official manufacturing PMI in China for November slightly rose to 49.2, indicating improved economic conditions, with the production index returning to the threshold level [1] - New export orders index saw its largest increase in six months, contributing to a positive macroeconomic atmosphere [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) has reached a consensus among its members to reduce production by over 10% by 2026 to improve market conditions and address the distortion in copper concentrate processing fees [1] - Increased disruptions to overseas mines have led to low processing fees for domestic copper concentrates, putting pressure on smelters [1] - If major domestic smelters implement their production cut plans next year, concerns over supply tightness may intensify [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Guotou Futures indicates that short-term precious metals provide premium sentiment, while the medium to long-term outlook remains bullish for next year's average copper price [1] - Demand driven by liquidity, green carbon, and intelligent computing, combined with low processing fees at the mining end, is expected to support price increases [1] - Short positions are recommended to be held, with attention to changes in capital flow [1]

铜周报 2025/11/29 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 减产预期下铜价冲击历史高位 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 利润库存 06 资金端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应：铜精矿现货加工费下滑，粗铜加工费持平，冷料供应维持相对宽松。消息面：（1）智利官方数据显示，该国10月铜产量环比微增， 同比下降约7%，至45.8万吨。（2）据悉中国铜原料采购小组（CSPT）达成协议，计划2026年减少矿铜产量10%以应对历史低位的加工费。 ◆ 库存：三大交易所库存环比增加0.9万吨，其中上期所库存减少1.3至9.8万吨，LME库存增加0.4至15.9万吨，COMEX库存增加1.7至37.9万吨。 上海保税区库存减少0.6万吨。现货方面，周五国内上海地区现货升水期货110元/吨，LME市场Cash/3M升水44.7美元/吨。 ◆ 进出口：国内电解铜现货进口亏损扩大，洋山铜溢价下滑。海关总署数据显示，2025年10月我国精炼 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the copper market is expected to experience price fluctuations in 2025, with a projected average price of $9,704 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6%, and is anticipated to break historical highs by the end of the year [2] - The demand for refined copper is expected to remain robust, with China accounting for 58% of global consumption in 2024, and a steady growth rate of 2% CAGR from 2016 to 2024 [3][4] - The supply side is characterized by a gradual increase in C1 costs and a tight mining situation, with copper concentrate production growth lagging behind refined copper production growth [4] Group 2 - In 2026, the copper market is projected to be in a tight balance, with a supply gap of 50,000 tons, and both supply and demand expected to grow by 3% year-on-year [5] - The company anticipates that the copper price will continue to rise, reaching a central price of $10,500 per ton in 2026 due to tightening supply and sustained demand [5] - The report highlights that the sentiment in the market may react more strongly than the actual fundamental performance, indicating a potential disconnect between market perception and reality [3]

Report Title - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Review 20251128: Rising Expectations of Fed Rate Cut in December Support Copper Prices" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The rising probability of a Fed rate cut in December and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in Shanghai copper prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract - On November 27, 2025, the closing price was 86,990, up 400 from the previous day; trading volume was 95,318 lots, down 11,895; open interest was 210,684 lots, up 5,956; inventory was 35,873 tons, down 3,952 [2] Shanghai Copper Basis or Spot Premium/Discount - On November 27, 2025, the SMM 1 electrolytic copper half - average price was 87,085, up 430 from the previous day; SMM + water copper opening discount half - average price was 55, up 20; SMM premium copper opening discount half - average price was 175, up 25 [2] London Copper - On November 27, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,930, down 23 from the previous day; LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was 0, down 30.83; LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract spread was 0, down 138.27 [2] COMEX Copper - On November 26, 2025, the copper futures active contract closing price was 5.2035, up 0.20 from November 24; total inventory was 417,666, up 8,281 from November 24 [2] Supply - demand Situation - On the supply side, production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have led to a negative China copper concentrate import index, indicating a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper enameled strip, copper tube, and brass rod have increased compared to last week, while the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods has decreased, and that of recycled copper rods has remained flat. In terms of inventory, China's electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased compared to last week, while LME and COMEX copper inventories have increased [2] Trading Strategy - Short - term traders can lightly go long on the main contract on dips. Pay attention to the support levels around 82,000 - 84,000 and resistance levels around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper; support levels around 10,300 - 10,500 and resistance levels around 11,000 - 11,500 for London copper; support levels around 4.5 - 4.8 and resistance levels around 5.2 - 5.5 for US copper [2]

Core Insights - The copper market is expected to maintain a tight balance in supply and demand, with prices projected to rise, reaching historical highs by the end of 2025, driven by financial factors and market sentiment rather than actual demand shortages [2][4][15] - Global refined copper demand in 2024 is anticipated to be dominated by China, accounting for 58% of total consumption, while the U.S. will contribute 6% [2][24] - China's copper demand is expected to grow steadily in 2025, with significant increases in the production of copper rods and tubes, while copper foil shows exceptional performance [3][25] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From January to August 2025, the global copper supply and demand remained in a tight balance, with an average monthly surplus of 0.8 thousand tons, despite high prices suppressing demand [2][19] - The refined copper consumption in 2025 is projected to increase, primarily driven by China, Japan, and Germany, while demand from Mexico and Finland is expected to decline [20][24] - The supply side is characterized by a slow increase in C1 costs and ongoing shortages in the mining sector, with refined copper production growth lagging behind that of copper concentrate [3][19] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The copper price is expected to experience fluctuations, with a projected average of $9,704 per ton in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [4][12] - The price movements in 2025 are influenced by traditional commodity attributes, with financial attributes showing a negative correlation, particularly as the U.S. dollar fluctuates [4][13][15] - The anticipated tight supply and steady demand are expected to keep copper prices on an upward trajectory, potentially reaching $10,500 per ton in 2026 [5][15] Investment Strategies - Investment opportunities are identified in upstream mining resources, particularly in companies with significant resource advantages, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [5] - Downstream processing companies with high barriers to entry are also recommended, including Hailiang Co., with a focus on those performing well in their respective sectors [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that copper prices are rising significantly due to market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month, with LME copper reaching its highest level in nearly a month and increasing by 0.77% this month and 24.88% year-to-date [1] - Chile's state-owned copper company has proposed a premium of $335 per ton for copper supply contracts for 2026, calculated above the LME price [1] - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global refined copper market deficit of 51,000 tons in September, contrasting with a surplus of 41,000 tons in August [1] Group 2 - Analysts from ING noted that the risks of rising copper prices are increasing due to supply challenges, low inventories, and ongoing trade distortions, suggesting that the supply-demand balance will tighten by 2026 [1] - According to Guangfa Futures, as consensus grows around tightening supply, the psychological price ceiling for copper is gradually rising among downstream buyers [1] - Freeport-McMoRan expects the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine to resume production in Q2 2026, maintaining a short-term tight supply scenario for copper, while monitoring year-end long-term contract negotiations and by-product price trends [1]

【冠通期货研究报告】 震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 26 日 【行情分析】 今日铜高开高走，震荡偏强，数据显示，美国 9 月 PPI 同比增长 2.7%，预估增长 2.7%，前值为增长 2.6%；美国 9 月 PPI 环比增长 0.3%，预估增长 0.3%，前值为下降 0.1%。美国 9 月核心 PPI 同比增长 2.6%，预期增长 2.7%，前值增长 2.8%。美国 9 月零 售销售环比增长 0.2%，预期 0.4%，前值 0.60%。铜精矿库存连续一周累库，印尼 Grasberg 矿区预计明年二季度复产，铜冶炼端长单谈判依然在进行中，目前粗炼费精炼 费延续窄幅波动，基本无变化。精炼铜进口环比减少，但国内铜相对供应充裕，上期所 铜库存也连续累库，暂时未出现货源偏紧的状态。770 号文目前尚未落地，再生铜杆企 业开工谨慎，江西安徽等产地再生铜杆产量下降，后续随着政策的落地，预计再生铜杆 开工负荷能有回升。上周铜价下跌后，下游市场逢低拿货有增加，2025 年 10 月中国铜 材产量 200.4 万吨，环比下滑超 10%，同比下降 3.3%；主要系 10 月份铜价大幅反弹，受 成本高价的制约，铜材生 ...

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices continue to rise, opening at $10,846 per ton and currently at $10,860.5 per ton, with an increase of 0.39% [1] - The highest price during the trading session reached $10,873 per ton, while the lowest was $10,846 per ton [1] - On November 25, LME copper futures opened at $10,788.0, peaked at $10,949.0, and closed at $10,832.5, reflecting a 0.47% increase [2] Group 2 - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 7.98, with an import loss of -1,026.92 yuan per ton, compared to -857.94 yuan per ton the previous trading day [2] - As of November 25, LME registered copper warrants totaled 150,950 tons, with 5,625 tons canceled and an increase of 100 tons, while total copper inventory rose by 825 tons to 156,575 tons [2] - Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper company, is significantly increasing its annual premium for refined copper to Chinese customers due to concerns over potential shortages [2]

交易所数据显示，截至11月21日，COMEX铜库存达到402,876短吨，超过了2003年1月创下的399,458短吨的前 纪录，并且今年库存量已增长了三倍。这一库存规模已超过LME和上海期货交易所库存总和，反映全球铜供应 链正因政策预期与套利行为发生显著重构。 但，昨晚旧金山联储主席Daly表示支持美联储在下月会议上降息，结合此前纽约联储主席也表态支持降息，这 使得市场对12月降息概率陡升，短暂缓解了市场对流动性问题的担忧。 后市来看，一德期货分析称，铜精矿供应仍偏紧，增速落后于精铜产量/消费增速。美联储官员表态支持12月 降息，CME数据显示美联储12月降息概率升至81%。市场受到提振，铜价小幅企稳。短期铜价延续高位震荡格 局，区间应对。关注海内外库存变化。分析师则认为，铜价在从历史高位回落后，目前徘徊在较高水平。由于 缺乏新的宏观或基本面催化剂，无论是向上还是向下突破都缺乏动力。 周一，由于美国COMEX铜库存创历史新高，市场总体观望气氛浓厚，芝加哥商品交易所(COMEX)期铜下跌。 今日，在美联储"放鸽"助推下，COMEX期铜有所反弹，小幅上涨0.19%。 ...

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