Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Short - term copper prices are expected to run weakly. Although supply tightness supports copper prices due to concerns about Trump's tariff policy implementation and low processing fees, high prices suppress downstream demand, and previous positive factors are weakening, resulting in upward pressure on copper prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. In the first half of the week, it continued the previous week's upward trend. After the release of strong US employment data on Thursday and Trump's passage of the "big and beautiful" bill, the US dollar index rose, and copper prices fell from a high on Friday. The closing price on Friday was 79,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of about - 0.2% compared with the previous week [5]. 3.2 Supply and Demand - Processing fees remain in the negative range. After the copper price exceeded 80,000 yuan/ton, many refined copper rod enterprises reduced production or stopped production to reduce inventory, causing the weekly operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises to drop to 63.74%, a decrease of 10.27% from the previous period and 9.74% lower than expected. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises dropped to 67.81%, a decrease of 2.37% from the previous period and 13.55% from the same period last year [3]. - Affected by the traditional off - season and high copper prices, new orders weakened, and enterprises mainly relied on previous orders. The finished product inventory decreased by 2.33% to 19,670 tons. Except for the relatively stable power industry, demand in other industries was generally suppressed by high copper prices [3]. - As some enterprises' finished product inventories have reached a low level, the operating rate is expected to rise to 71.56% driven by resumption of production. As of July 3, the copper inventory in the country's mainstream areas increased by 0.57 million tons to 13.18 million tons compared with Monday and increased by 0.17 million tons compared with the previous Thursday [3]. 3.3 Macro - economy - The US Department of Labor announced on Thursday that non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, which led to a significant decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and a rise in the US dollar. The US House of Representatives passed Trump's bill to significantly cut taxes and increase government spending, which may increase inflationary pressure, putting upward pressure on copper prices [3]. - Trump stated that countries will pay reciprocal tariffs starting from August 1, with tariff rates possibly ranging from 10% to 20% or from 60% to 70% [3].

Core Insights - Copper prices for both London and Shanghai futures have declined, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] - Copper inventories have increased for four consecutive days, suggesting a potential oversupply situation [1] - Upcoming announcements from Trump regarding trade policies may significantly impact future copper price movements [1] Group 1 - The decline in copper prices reflects broader market concerns and potential shifts in demand [1] - The continuous rise in copper inventories could lead to further price pressure if the trend persists [1] - The market is closely monitoring trade policy developments, which could introduce volatility in copper prices [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that copper prices are expected to rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. - The report highlights a continued weakening in demand, particularly in the cable sector, with risks of further declines in production rates for air conditioning units [1][3]. - The report notes that the short-term risk of warehouse squeezing remains, suggesting that copper prices may continue to show strength before returning to a more volatile state [1]. Supply and Demand Summary - **Production**: In June 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% month-on-month but an increase of 12.9% year-on-year [3][65]. - **Demand**: The cable industry's operating rate decreased by 2.4 percentage points, with the operating rate for cable enterprises at 67.81% as of July 3, 2025 [3][75]. - **Inventory**: Domestic copper social inventory increased by 1.3%, while LME copper inventory rose by 5.1% [2][24]. Raw Material Insights - **Copper Concentrate**: Domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports was 666,000 tons, up 6.8% week-on-week as of July 4, 2025 [2][49]. - **Scrap Copper**: The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 260 RMB/ton, indicating a tighter supply of scrap copper [2][54]. Futures Market Overview - The active contract position for SHFE copper increased by 1.3% week-on-week, with a total position of 216,000 lots as of July 4, 2025 [4][33]. Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - **Western Mining**: Stock price at 17.10 RMB, with EPS forecasts of 1.67 RMB for 2025, and a PE ratio of 10 [5]. - **Zijin Mining**: Stock price at 20.05 RMB, with EPS forecasts of 1.60 RMB for 2025, and a PE ratio of 13 [5]. - **Luoyang Molybdenum**: Stock price at 8.54 RMB, with EPS forecasts of 0.62 RMB for 2025, and a PE ratio of 14 [5]. - **Jincheng Mining**: Stock price at 45.42 RMB, with EPS forecasts of 3.61 RMB for 2025, and a PE ratio of 13 [5].

铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，6月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%， 与上月持平，制造业景气度基本稳定；中性。 2、基差：现货80160，基差-480，贴水期货；偏空。 3、库存：7月1日铜库存增650至91250吨，上期所铜库存较上周减19264吨至81550吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空减；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性，地缘扰动仍存，铜价震荡运行为 主. 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 ...

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Group 1: Securities Industry Insights - The securities industry underperformed the market in the first half of the year due to valuation increases and policy changes [1] - Ongoing market stabilization measures are expected to boost various business segments, including brokerage, margin financing, and equity derivatives [1] - The introduction of new public fund regulations marks a new era for high-quality development in public funds [1] - The deepening of capital market investment and financing reforms is leading to a recovery in investment banking business [1] - The reliance on investment performance, particularly in leverage and proprietary equity investments by brokerages, remains a key differentiator [1] - The "1+N" regulatory framework and mechanisms to encourage long-term capital inflow are enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market [1] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - Recent copper prices have shown an upward trend, but there is market divergence regarding future price movements [2] - The upstream refined copper production remains tight due to limited CAPEX and significant reductions in TC/RC fees [2] - Support for copper prices is provided by China's "steady growth" policies and the "soft landing" of the U.S. economy, with current market prices deemed reasonable [2] - Further upward movement in copper prices may require additional macroeconomic policy support domestically and stabilization in overseas economies [2] - Inflation expectations, interest rate cut anticipations, and a slight decline in the U.S. dollar index may further support the current strong oscillation in copper prices [2] - Citic Securities maintains a forecast for copper prices to rise to $10,000–$11,000 per ton in the second half of the year, while cautioning against potential disruptions from July's "reciprocal tariffs" [2] Group 3: Smart Glasses Supply Chain - The release of Xiaomi's AI glasses, which serve as a portable AI interface with multiple functionalities, highlights the importance of the smart glasses supply chain [3] - The smart glasses are positioned as a significant future product in the AI sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - Demand is gradually weakening, but copper prices have risen due to short-covering [2] Group 1: Price Trends - As of June 27, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 79,920 CNY/ton, up 2.47% from June 20; LME copper closed at 9,879 USD/ton, up 2.26% [2] - The rise in copper prices is attributed to expectations of U.S. tariffs on copper, leading to a global inventory shift towards the U.S. [2] Group 2: Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 11% and LME copper inventory decreased by 4.6% [3] - As of June 27, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory was 624,000 tons, down 12.4% from the previous week [3] - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 398,000 tons, down 1.8% [3] Group 3: Supply and Production - From January to April 2025, global copper concentrate production increased by 2% year-on-year [4] - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [4] - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 1,965 CNY/ton, up 1,045 CNY/ton from June 20 [4] Group 4: Smelting and Processing - In May 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1383 million tons, up 1.1% month-on-month and 12.9% year-on-year [5] - As of June 27, 2025, the TC spot price was -43.56 USD/ton, showing a slight increase but remaining at a low level since September 2007 [5] Group 5: Demand Indicators - The cable industry's operating rate decreased by 3 percentage points to 70.18% as of June 26, 2025 [6] - Domestic air conditioning production is expected to decline by 13% year-on-year from July to September 2025 [6] - The operating rate for brass rods was 50.6% in May 2025, down 4.4 percentage points month-on-month [6] Group 6: Futures Market - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 37% week-on-week, reaching 216,000 lots as of June 27, 2025 [7][8] - COMEX non-commercial net long positions rose by 24% week-on-week, totaling 29,000 lots as of June 24, 2025 [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising costs of new copper mines globally due to increasing inflation, which is impacting copper price trends and market supply-demand expectations [1] Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - Global inflation is intensifying, leading to higher costs for establishing new copper mines [1] - The article raises questions about how copper price trends and market supply-demand expectations will evolve in response to these rising costs [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The short - term copper price is expected to maintain an upward trend due to low inventory support and a warming macro - environment. The market should pay attention to the Shanghai copper's test of the previous high pressure level [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper slightly rose to 78,810, with total positions increasing by 11,458 lots. The 07 - 08 spread on the board narrowed to 130, and the spot premium dropped 10 to 30. Downstream demand for high - priced copper was limited during the off - season [11] - LME market spreads also narrowed, with the 0 - 3 spread narrowing to $150/ton. The shortage of spot goods slightly eased, but LME inventory continued to decline by 1,200 to 93,475 tons. The high BACK structure caused by low LME inventory is difficult to ease in the short term [11] - The COMEX - LME spread widened to $1,214/ton. The high C - L premium due to the delayed US tariff implementation led to the continuous transfer of global inventory to COMEX. SHFE and LME will face continuous de - stocking pressure [11] - The macro - environment has improved. The sharp rise in A - shares has driven the market's bullish sentiment to spread to the commodity market, supporting the prices of Shanghai and London copper [11] 3.2. Industry News - A new preliminary feasibility study (PFS) of Ivanhoe Electric's Santa Cruz copper project in Arizona shows an initial cost of $1.24 billion and a post - tax net present value (NPV) of $1.4 billion. The underground mine can produce 72,000 tons of copper cathode per year in the first 15 years of its 23 - year lifespan. At a base price of $4.25 per pound, the internal rate of return (IRR) is 20%. At the current Comex high - grade copper price of $4.83 per pound, the NPV rises to $1.9 billion and the IRR rises to 24% [12] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange approved the registration of "Zhongtiaoshan" brand Grade A copper produced by Houma Beitong Copper Industry Co., Ltd., with a registered production capacity of 200,000 tons. It also cancelled the registration qualification of "Zhongtiaoshan" brand Grade A copper of Shanxi Beifang Copper Industry Co., Ltd.'s Houma Smelter [12] - The case of Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. and Ajlan Brothers Mining Company's new joint venture entered the publicity period (June 16 - 25, 2025). The joint venture will engage in exploration, potential mining, operation, management, development, production, and sales of minerals in Saudi Arabia [13] - An employee of First Quantum's Trident died in a dump truck accident at Sentinel. The company will cooperate fully with the investigation, and operations in the accident area have been temporarily suspended [13]

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，5月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月 上升0.5个百分点，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势；中性。 2、基差：现货78560，基差-250，贴水期货；中性。 3、库存：6月25日铜库存减1200至93475吨，上期所铜库存较上周减1129吨至100814吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空减；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性，地缘扰动仍存，铜价震荡运行为 主. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地 ...