关税正在破坏强势美元的核心支柱——美国企业的利润和美国家庭的消费能力。 近期，美元指数不断下跌，先是跌破100大关，4月21日更是跌入98区间，创阶段性新低。日元、欧元今年以来对美元升值5%~10%。 在华尔街投行看来，美元此前被高估了10%~20%。这种高估源自于美国的"例外主义"——过去十多年里，美国优异的资产回报率吸引了全球资本流入。然 而，关税将不成比例地打击美国企业的利润和美国家庭的消费能力——而这两者正是支撑美国"例外主义"的双引擎。关税正在破坏强势美元的核心支柱。 美元霸权能否维持？强美元会否瓦解？对此，第一财经日前独家采访美国资管巨头富兰克林邓普顿（Franklin Templeton）首席市场策略师兼研究院主管多弗 （Stephen Dover）。 "我们目前不能确定美国政府是否希望美元保持储备货币地位，当前有很多不同的阵营，目前还不清楚美国总统特朗普的想法。但我们必须要观察事态的发 展。"多弗称，尽管事态可能不会失控，但尾部风险在急剧放大，因此现在并非冒险的时候。 贸易战使美元信仰受损 "海湖庄园协议"这一概念可追溯现任白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰（Stephen Miran）去年11月发布 ...

4月初以来，"对等关税"政策引燃美国罕见的"股债汇三杀"。在刚刚过去的一周里，全球主要权益市场 走出上扬行情，美股则仍逆"市"下跌。 权威专家表示，美国"对等关税"措施激化贸易冲突，扰乱全球供应链，推升通胀和衰退预期。短期内， 对美国自身及世界各国资本市场都造成巨大冲击；长期看，会推升全球融资成本，加速全球产业链供应 链重塑，损害美国信誉和美元国际地位，并对全球贸易和金融市场产生深远影响。（上证报） ...

Group 1 - The article criticizes the U.S. tariff policy as a unilateral and reckless approach that undermines international trade order and serves political interests [1][10] - The U.S. has imposed various tariffs on imports from China and other countries, including a 20% tariff on all Chinese goods and 25% on steel and aluminum [2][3] - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to significant increases in tariffs on imports from various countries, with rates reaching as high as 125% for certain goods from China [3][4] Group 2 - The article argues that the "reciprocal tariff" calculation method is flawed and does not accurately reflect trade imbalances, as it is based on arbitrary parameters set by the U.S. [4][5] - The U.S. tariff policy is said to violate World Trade Organization (WTO) principles, including the most-favored-nation treatment and non-discrimination rules [5][6] - The article highlights that the U.S. trade deficit is a structural issue that cannot be resolved through tariffs, as it is influenced by comparative advantages and international division of labor [7][8] Group 3 - The article notes that since the onset of the trade war in 2018, the overall U.S. trade deficit has not decreased, but rather has been redistributed among trading partners [8][9] - It emphasizes that high tariffs will not effectively fund domestic tax cuts, as tariff revenue is minimal compared to income and sales taxes [9][10] - The article warns that the tariff policy is likely to increase inflationary pressures in the U.S., ultimately burdening consumers [10][11] Group 4 - The article discusses the political pressures facing the U.S. tariff policy, with increasing opposition from both parties and concerns about its economic impact [10][11] - It highlights the potential for significant market volatility and economic downturns as a result of the tariff measures, with major financial institutions adjusting their growth forecasts [11][12] - The article concludes that the high tariffs may distort global resource allocation and weaken the U.S. industrial base, contradicting the political promises made by the Trump administration [12][13]

与此同时，在现有11个试点省市基础上，新增大连、宁波、厦门、青岛、深圳、合肥、福州、西安、苏 州9个城市纳入试点。至此，我国服务业扩大开放综合试点增至20个，覆盖了东、中、西、东北地区， 形成了我国当前服务业对外开放的区域代表性格局。 新京报讯（记者姜慧梓）4月21日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍《加快推进服务业扩大开放综合试点 工作方案》（以下简称《工作方案》）有关情况。会上提及美国实施"对等关税"一事，商务部副部长兼 国际贸易谈判副代表凌激说了三个"坚定"。 凌激表示，当前，全球经济复苏动力不足，特别是美国宣布实施所谓对等关税，严重损害了多边贸易体 制，严重冲击了国际贸易秩序和全球产供链的安全稳定。为更好应对当前面临的外部冲击和挑战，《工 作方案》突出了对接CPTPP、DEPA等高标准国际经贸规则的内容。 随后，他提到三个"坚定"。凌激表示，《工作方案》提出提速、加力，显示出中国在当前形势下坚定不 移扩大对外开放的决心，进一步发挥服务业扩大开放综合优势，体现出中国坚定支持经济全球化，坚定 维护多边贸易体制，推动与各国共促开放、共享发展的意愿和决心。 我国服务业扩大开放综合试点工作自2015年启动，经历了一次 ...

Group 1 - Trump's unexpected statement about potentially reaching a new agreement with China within a month and not raising tax rates has sparked significant discussion [2] - This shift in stance is interpreted as a response to strong backlash against his policies, indicating that his previous hardline approach is no longer sustainable [5][7] - Polls show over half of respondents are dissatisfied with Trump's economic policies, with his economic approval rating dropping to 43%, the lowest during his presidency [5][7] Group 2 - There is a growing pessimism among Americans regarding the economy, with notable criticism from former Democratic presidents who express concerns about Trump's policies [7][9] - Some Republican lawmakers are beginning to voice their discontent with the tariff policies, with even Trump's allies questioning the impact on American consumers [9] - Over 900 economists and business leaders have called for an end to the "reciprocal tariffs," citing negative effects on U.S. manufacturing, agriculture, and consumer markets [12] Group 3 - Inflation is affecting everyday life, with reports of egg prices soaring to $15 per dozen, indicating severe price instability [12] - Trump has clashed with the Federal Reserve over interest rate policies, seeking cuts to stimulate consumption, but the Fed has resisted these requests [12][14] - Trump's strategy to isolate China has backfired, as traditional allies like Japan and the UK express reluctance to align with U.S. policies against China [14][15] Group 4 - China's response to the trade war has been proactive, with a commitment to open economic cooperation, indicating a shift from passive defense to active engagement in reshaping global trade dynamics [17] - The failure of Trump's "maximum pressure" strategy is evident as he faces domestic dissent and international isolation, struggling to address the root causes of these issues [17]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury bonds are experiencing a historic sell-off, with yields rising sharply, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics and investor sentiment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged by 16 basis points, followed by an additional increase of 13 basis points, surpassing the 4.5% mark, reflecting an unprecedented sell-off [1]. - The 30-year Treasury yield also rose above 5.0%, marking a significant increase from 4.4% on April 4, indicating a broader trend of rising yields across different maturities [1]. - Typically, U.S. Treasuries act as a safe haven during market volatility, but this time they have become a source of pressure on the financial markets [1]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - The structure of U.S. Treasury bond investors has changed significantly over the past decade, with individual investors and mutual funds increasing their shares to 10.3% and 19.3%, respectively, both rising by approximately 10 percentage points [5]. - Hedge funds, which have been betting on rising bond prices and falling yields, are under pressure to liquidate positions due to changing market conditions and margin requirements [5]. - Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that China is unlikely to sell off its U.S. Treasury holdings, as such actions would harm its own interests and the global financial stability [5][8]. Group 3: Economic Policy and Trade Relations - Concerns over the Trump administration's "reciprocal tariffs" policy have exacerbated the sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, as market participants fear tightening financial conditions [3]. - Treasury Secretary Becerra criticized China for its retaliatory tariff measures, asserting that such actions could lead to further economic tensions [8]. - The potential for a financial crisis is highlighted by warnings from investment managers regarding liquidity issues reminiscent of past market disruptions [3].

Group 1: Trade Impact and Economic Data - In 2024, Vietnam's exports to the U.S. are valued at $119.5 billion, accounting for 29.5% of total exports[1] - In January-February 2025, Vietnam's exports to the U.S. reached $19.56 billion, representing 30% of national exports, a 16.5% increase year-on-year[2] - The U.S. imposed a 46% tariff on Vietnam, higher than most Southeast Asian countries[3] Group 2: Government Response and Market Adjustments - Vietnam has reduced tariffs on 23 categories of imported goods, with some rates lower than U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese goods[4] - Vietnam is negotiating to purchase over $90 billion worth of U.S. goods, including 250 Boeing aircraft and $6 billion in LNG[5] - The textile and apparel industry in Vietnam has a 40% export ratio to the U.S., facing significant pressure from tariffs[6] Group 3: Structural Reforms and Future Outlook - Vietnam has restructured its administrative units from 63 to 34, aiming to improve governance efficiency[7] - The country is shifting towards a FOB production model to share tax burdens with clients and expand into new markets like Russia and Australia[8] - Southeast Asian countries are increasing energy imports to reduce trade surpluses with the U.S., potentially affecting OPEC+ pricing power[9]

01 再创新高，黄金近期为何大涨？ 回顾黄金的定价框架： ①金融属性：10Y美债实际利率作为持有黄金的机会成本，与黄金价格显 著负相关。②避险属性：金融、经济、地缘政治出现大幅波动或危机时往往提升黄金避险需求，带来 风险溢价。③货币属性：黄金对美元体系有一定的替代性，美元信用削弱将利好黄金。 自我们24年初提示黄金配置机会以来，金价屡创新高！ 近期，由于市场对美国经济前景的担忧日 益加剧，特别是随着特朗普政府可能实施的破坏性贸易政策引发市场不确定性，黄金作为避险资产的 需求显著增加。 戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 法律声明 请向下滑动参见广发证券股份有限公司有关微信推送内容的完整 详见：24.3.1 《 债务周期下的资产配置-避险资产篇——"债务周期大局观"系列（四） 》 24.7.17《 金价再创新高，还有上车机会吗？》 24.9.13 《 黄金、利率债双双新高之际 》 24.10.23 《 金价再创新高，坚定"黄金信仰"！ 》 25.1.31 《戴康：黄金为何是新投资范式的基石配置 ？ 》 25.3.15 《戴康：黄金破3000之 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the recent surge in gold prices, driven by increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid growing concerns about the U.S. economic outlook and potential disruptive trade policies from the Trump administration [3][7] - The pricing framework of gold is outlined, highlighting its financial attributes, safe-haven characteristics, and monetary properties, particularly its inverse relationship with the 10-year U.S. Treasury real interest rates [3] - Since the beginning of 2024, gold prices have consistently reached new highs, indicating a strong market sentiment towards gold as a protective investment [3] Group 2 - The article discusses the potential for further increases in gold prices, suggesting that gold functions as a sovereign credit asset and a non-interest-bearing bond, which is reinforced by geopolitical risks and concerns over U.S. debt issues [7] - The ongoing demand from central banks for gold is expected to support its price in the medium to long term, as the erosion of U.S. dollar credit continues [7]

英国《金融时报》集团旗下唯一的中文商业财经网站，旨在为中国商业菁英和决策者们提供每日不可或 缺的商业财经资讯、深度分析以及评论。 编者荐语： 日本经济新闻社与金融时报2015年11月合并为同一家媒体集团。同样于19世纪创刊的日本和英国的两家 报社形成的同盟正以"高品质、最强大的经济新闻学"为旗帜，推进共同特辑等广泛领域的协作。此次， 作为其中的一环，两家报社的中文网之间实现文章互换。 以下文章来源于FT中文网 ，作者刘远举 刘远举：特朗普的极限施压，从他的社交媒体到各国现实，隔着无数出于利益的阻碍。想 把这些产业链从中国带到美国，短期内是不可能的。 文 | FT中文网专栏作家刘远举 特朗普宣布"对等关税"仅13小时后，他又在其社交媒体平台上突然宣布，对超过75个国家实 施为期90天的关税暂缓措施，同时将中国商品的关税税率从104%提升至125%。截至本文发 稿前，特朗普政府宣布的对中国进口商品的关税已提高至145%。 FT中文网 . 中国的对外贸易，已经相当分散。一些商品通过转口贸易，在他国加工，最终出口到美国。 特朗普延缓其他国家的关税，就相当于延缓了中国的关税压力。那么，转口贸易在未来会发 挥更重要的作用 ...