Core Viewpoint - France is urging China to lift its countermeasures against French cognac imports, but China appears to link this issue to the European Union's tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [1][3]. Group 1: Importance of Cognac to France - In 2023, France's cognac export value reached €4.2 billion, with nearly one-third of this market coming from China [3]. - High-end cognac brands, particularly XO, are considered valuable assets among wealthy consumers in China, indicating the significance of this market for French producers [3]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Responses - The European Commission is set to finalize tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, with potential rates soaring up to 48% [3]. - France's Agriculture Minister, Marc Fesneau, has expressed urgency for China to reconsider its stance, highlighting the tension in trade relations [3]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The trade conflict could have severe repercussions for French agriculture, as the countermeasures may extend beyond cognac to include other vital sectors such as aircraft, luxury goods, and dairy products [3][5]. - The competitive landscape for cognac in China is intensifying, with domestic wines from regions like Ningxia and international competitors from Chile and Australia posing significant threats [5]. Group 4: Political Dynamics - French President Macron's previous emphasis on European strategic autonomy contrasts sharply with the current situation, where France seems to be reacting to U.S. influences rather than asserting its own interests [5]. - The ongoing trade war is characterized as mutually damaging, with reports of layoffs in French vineyards as a direct consequence of the trade tensions [5].

一、历史的教训 前言 二、美国的贸易战与中国 1985年，美国与沙特达成协议，将沙特的石油产量大幅提升，油价暴跌，对苏联的石油收入造成了致命打击。此外，美国还通过推迟粮食出口谈判，迫使苏 联从其他国家进口粮食，进一步加剧了苏联经济的恶化。在这一系列攻势下，苏联无法维持经济稳定，最终导致了1989年苏联的解体。 1 1 5 ry N 1 u a 2 Print al lets e 11 - 20 o b - - 249 . 8 . 4 8 8 e - 61 8 a 6472 gle 1 4 4 美国发动的贸易战给世界带来了很多启示，特别是对于那些过度依赖外部资源的国家。苏联与中国的情况有所不同。苏联经济对石油的依赖程度极高，而且 在关键技术上严重依赖进口。而中国则拥有更为多元化的产业结构，虽然也面临着能源供应的挑战，但中国在出口市场上更加多元化，不容易像苏联那样被 美国轻易打击。 美国对中国的贸易战同样是有着明确目标的——通过削弱中国的能源供应来打压中国的经济。尤其是在石油领域，中国是世界上第二大经济体，每天的石油 需求量达到730万桶，而国内的战略石油储备却不足30天，进口的石油主要来自中东和非洲，且大部分通 ...

铜: 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，6月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%， 与上月持平，制造业景气度基本稳定；中性。 2、基差：现货80160，基差240，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：6月27日铜库存减1800至91275吨，上期所铜库存较上周减19264吨至81550吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空减；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性，地缘扰动仍存，铜价震荡运行为 主. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 ...

【导读】日韩股市高开，现货黄金开盘下跌 中国基金报记者 李智 一起来看下日韩股市的最新市场情况及资讯。 日韩股市高开 6 月 30 日早间，日韩股市高开， 日经 225 指数涨超 1.6% ，达到去年 7 月中旬以来的最 高点位。 特朗普：美国与日本的汽车贸易不公平 美国总统特朗普周日表示，美国和日本之间的汽车贸易是不公平的。距离两国达成贸易协议 只剩一周多的时间，届时美国可能提高对日本商品的关税。 特朗普在周日播出的福克斯新闻采访中说道： " 我们把数以百万计日本的汽车运到美国，这 不公平。 "" 我向日本解释了这一点，他们表示理解。我们对日本存在巨大的贸易逆差，他们 也理解这一点。 " 特朗普在讲话中说， " 现在我们有石油，他们可以拿走很多石油，他们也 可以拿走很多其他东西。 " 根据日本经济产业省周一公布的数据，日本 5 月份工业产出增长 0.5% ，而 4 月份为下降 1.1% ，经济学家此前预期增幅为 3.5% 。这份官方数据显示，预计日本公司 6 月份产出将 增长 0.3%，7 月份将下降 0.7% 。 个股方面，奥林巴斯、软银集团、东京电力等涨幅居前。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 = | ...

五矿期货农产品团队 农产品早报 2025-06-30 五矿期货农产品早报 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 上周五美豆收涨，USDA 面积报告前调整仓位，上周交易天气较好及贸易战担忧美豆整体回落，不过美 豆估值略低，可能存在一定支撑。国内豆粕期货大幅回落，累库压力增大，现货压榨量本周小幅下调， 饲料企业库存天数报 7.75 天环比持平，同比中性。周末国内豆粕现货小幅上调 30 元左右，华东报 2820 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 统计本周预计压榨大豆 228 万吨，上周压榨 249 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区。巴西方面，升贴水近期稳定小涨，中国买盘有所放缓， 中美大豆关税仍未解除支撑当地升贴水。总体来看，大豆进口成本暂稳为主，但也需要注意贸易战若缓 和或宏观影响带来的超预期下跌。周一夜间美豆将发布种植面积报告，市场不确定性增加，关注面积方 面 ...

当加拿大对亚马逊、谷歌亮出3%的数字税匕首时，特朗普瞬间引爆了北美贸易的一枚威力十足的核弹。美加贸易谈判戛然而止的硝烟中，一场牵动全球 贸易格局的多米诺骨牌正在轰然倒塌。 加拿大这招数字税看似蚊子腿，实则是主权国家的绝地反击。在数字经济洪流中，渥太华眼睁睁看着硅谷巨鳄吮吸本国数据红利却分文不缴，恰如大航海 时代殖民地目睹黄金舰队扬长而去。追溯至2022年的征税铁腕，更是给美国科技殖民体系钉上棺材钉——三十八亿新元的赎金单，撕碎了"美加特殊关 系"的那块最后的遮羞布。 这出双簧戏暴露了白宫的贸易战剧本：先拿软柿子加拿大祭旗，特朗普甚至多次叫嚣让加拿大成为美国的第51个州，同时威慑正在谈判桌前的欧盟与印 度。如同拿破仑横扫意大利震慑欧陆，特朗普要用渥太华的鲜血染红"美国优先"的战旗。 如此看来，加美贸易已走向生死簿。加拿大GDP仅2.2万亿美元，却承载4127亿对美出口，美国市场吞噬加拿大18.7%经济命脉。特朗普的第51州论之背 后，是钢铝关税、汽车关税、农产品关税组成的锁链三重奏 特朗普的暴怒实为精心设计的战略讹诈。当财长贝森特正夸耀"劳动节前完成18国谈判"的惊世豪言，总统却突然对最亲密邻邦发动关税突袭。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PP trends are weak. The previous core driving force for bulls has disappeared, and the new production capacity has offset the efforts on the supply - side. Macro - factors and domestic capacity expansion trends bring pressure. Although there are optimistic expectations for export due to the possible improvement of the trade war, the overall supply is in surplus, and downstream low - profit situations limit positive feedback. The key to the future seasonal reversal may be the Fed's interest rate cut [5][6]. - LLDPE is in a mid - term volatile market. The conflict between Iran and Israel has eased, and the premium caused by polyethylene import risks has been reversed. The weak demand in the spot market leads to negative feedback in the industrial chain, but the rapid decline in social sample warehouse inventory provides short - term support [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - **PP Situation**: The situation in the Middle East has tended to pause. The new production capacity has offset the supply - side efforts. Macro - factors such as China's debt - resolution pressure and the recession pressure in Europe and the United States, combined with domestic capacity expansion, bring continuous pressure. In the medium - term, the new production capacity pressure is concentrated in the first half of the year, and the overall supply is in surplus. The export market is affected by the trade war and external economic pressure, with limited incremental space [5][6]. - **LLDPE Situation**: The conflict between Iran and Israel has eased, and the polyethylene import risk premium has been reversed. The weak demand in the spot market leads to negative feedback, but the rapid decline in social sample warehouse inventory provides short - term support. In 2025, the new production capacity of domestic PE devices on the 09 contract is expected to be 2.05 million tons, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand in the downstream market is weak [7][8]. - **Core Data**: The spot prices of polypropylene and polyethylene have decreased compared to the previous period and the same period last year. The polypropylene base - spread has slightly strengthened, while the polyethylene base - spread has weakened. The monthly spreads of both have certain changes. The operating rates of polypropylene and polyethylene have decreased compared to the previous period, and the polyolefin inventory has decreased [9]. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand - **Price Difference**: The non - standard price difference of polypropylene is not conducive to price rebound [17]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The overall short - term operating rate of polypropylene has increased month - on - month, but there are still many overhauls in July. The new production capacity has offset the support from overhauls. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene this period is 79.30%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. This week's domestic polypropylene production is 789,200 tons, a 0.23% increase from last week [21][23]. - **Overhaul and New Capacity**: There are still large - scale overhauls in July, but new production capacity and restarts lead to increased production. In 2025, the potential new production capacity of polypropylene is 7.855 million tons, with a capacity increase of 15.4% [25][27]. - **Inventory**: The production inventory and trader inventory of polypropylene have decreased month - on - month. The overall commercial inventory has decreased. The decline in production enterprise inventory is due to the increase in overhauls and the decline in imports, while the decline in trader inventory is due to active sales. The port inventory has increased [28][32]. - **Cost**: The crude oil price has decreased, leading to a decline in polypropylene production costs [33]. - **Profit**: The profits of oil - based and PDH - based polypropylene manufacturers have increased [38]. - **Downstream**: The BOPP operating rate remains flat, the order days have decreased, and the finished - product inventory has increased. The BOPP profit is at a low level due to over - capacity. The operating rates of tape master rolls, plastic weaving, non - woven fabrics, and CPP have all decreased, and the order days have also decreased [40][43][48]. 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - **Price Difference**: The L - LL price difference has declined, which is negative for polyethylene. The HD - LL price difference has expanded in the first five months of 2025 and may fluctuate later [64][67]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The operating rate and production of polyethylene have decreased month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 76.44%, a decrease of 2.25% from the previous period. This week's polyethylene production is 595,400 tons, a 2.86% decrease from last week [68][70]. - **Overhaul**: The expected overhaul loss in July is less than that in June [71]. - **New Capacity**: In 2025, the potential new production capacity of polyethylene is 6.13 million tons, with a capacity increase of 17.17% [72]. - **Inventory**: The production enterprise inventory and social inventory of polyethylene have decreased month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory has decreased due to more overhauls and less imports, while the social inventory has decreased significantly [74][77]. - **Cost**: The crude oil price has declined, resulting in a decrease in polyethylene production costs [78]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based polyethylene devices has increased [84]. - **Downstream**: The operating rate of agricultural films has increased month - on - month, and the order days have also increased. The operating rate of packaging films has decreased, and the order days have decreased month - on - month. The operating rates of pipes and hollow products are lower than the same period last year [86][87][88].

Group 1 - The U.S. imposed tariffs of up to 104% on Chinese goods, followed by a "forgiveness list" that included rare earths and semiconductors, maintaining a lower tax rate of 20% on these items, indicating a contradictory stance [4] - The U.S. Department of Commerce quietly issued rare earth import licenses to 28 American companies after announcing the tariffs, reflecting a contradictory approach [5] - The U.S. military is facing challenges due to a shortage of critical materials like samarium-cobalt magnets, which are predominantly sourced from China, impacting the production of F-35 fighter jets and B-21 bombers [7][11] Group 2 - China's rare earth export restrictions are a strategic move that significantly impacts U.S. military capabilities, as 87% of U.S. weapon systems rely on Chinese rare earth materials [11][12] - The F-47 sixth-generation fighter jet project in the U.S. is experiencing delays due to insufficient rare earth supplies, raising concerns within the U.S. Air Force [12] - The global supply chain is affected, with countries like Vietnam and Brazil benefiting from U.S. tariffs on Chinese shipping, as businesses reroute to avoid high fees [21] Group 3 - The U.S. automotive industry is suffering from production halts due to rare earth shortages, with General Motors halting electric pickup production and the automotive manufacturers' association issuing ultimatums [21] - The global economy is in turmoil as China controls 93% of rare earth processing capacity, threatening industries like electric vehicles and wind power with potential supply disruptions [23] - The U.S. attempts to diversify its rare earth supply through allies have proven ineffective, as many countries still rely on China for processing [25][27]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. wine industry is facing unprecedented challenges due to trade tensions, particularly with Canada, leading to a dramatic 93% drop in wine exports, marking the largest decline in decades [2][3][4]. Group 1: Impact of Trade Disputes - The trade war initiated by U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods has resulted in retaliatory measures from Canada, severely affecting U.S. wine exports [3][6]. - Canada, being the largest market for U.S. wine, has seen exports plummet, with experts indicating that the ongoing trade disputes have plunged the industry into crisis [3][4]. - The American Association of Wine Economists highlighted that the expectation of tariffs benefiting U.S. wine producers has backfired, leading to significant losses [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The Ontario Liquor Control Board has removed all U.S. wines and spirits from shelves, reflecting a broader trend across Canadian provinces [6][9]. - A survey indicated that 69% of Canadian consumers have ceased purchasing U.S. alcoholic beverages, with a significant portion expressing no intention to return to these products [8][9]. - The sentiment against U.S. wines is particularly strong among older Canadians, with 84% of those over 60 unlikely to purchase U.S. wine in the future [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Industry Response - The overall decline in global wine demand over the past few years has exacerbated the impact of the Canadian market's closure on U.S. wine exports [7]. - Canadian consumers are increasingly opting for local and alternative wines, indicating a shift in market preferences that U.S. producers will struggle to regain [11]. - The competitive landscape of the North American wine industry is being reshaped, with Canadian and global producers stepping in to fill the void left by U.S. wine brands [11].

Group 1: US-EU Trade Negotiations - The deadline for US-EU trade negotiations is approaching, with unresolved tariff issues and significant internal divisions within the EU [1] - The US has set July 9 as the deadline for tariff suspension, after which EU exports to the US could face tariffs as high as 50% [1] - Current US tariffs include 50% on steel and aluminum products, 25% on automobiles, and a 10% baseline tariff on other goods, causing substantial economic losses for Germany [1] Group 2: EU's Response to US Tariffs - The EU is preparing retaliatory measures in two phases, with the first phase targeting $210 billion worth of US goods and the second phase potentially affecting $950 billion worth of goods, including aircraft and automobiles [1] - The economic impact of a 50% tariff could affect $321 billion in US-EU trade, potentially reducing US GDP by nearly 0.6% and increasing inflation by over 0.3% [1] Group 3: EU's Concessions to China - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has softened her stance on rare earths, seeking expedited export licenses from China for EU companies [3] - The EU previously aligned with the US in criticizing China’s control over rare earths but is now recognizing the importance of Chinese supplies for European manufacturers [3] - China dominates the rare earth market, accounting for 61% of global extraction and 92% of refining, with the EU heavily reliant on Chinese imports [3] Group 4: Strategic Balancing by the EU - Von der Leyen aims to balance relations between the US and China, using China as leverage to negotiate better terms with the US [5] - The German automotive industry, which constitutes 5% of Germany's GDP, is particularly vulnerable to trade tensions, with significant exports to the US at stake [5] - The EU's approach may be complicated by the US's demands, which are perceived as unfair and potentially detrimental to EU interests [7] Group 5: Future Considerations for the EU - The EU must reassess its strategy to avoid alienating both the US and China, as trade relations with both are crucial for economic stability [7] - The upcoming EU-China summit presents an opportunity for the EU to clarify its position and negotiate terms that benefit its economic interests [7]