高通收入展望疲软 盘后跌超6% 高通(QCOM.O)对当前季度收入的展望表现疲软，凸显对关税将损害其产品需求的担忧。该公司周三表 示，截至6月的财季收入将在99亿至107亿美元之间。该区间的中点略低于分析师预估均值103.3亿美 元，导致其股价盘后下跌。高通首席执行官表示，公司正在应对"当前的宏观经济和贸易环境"。这一展 望再次引发对智能手机市场将受到贸易战冲击迫近的担忧。高通被视为极易受到美国关税威胁影响。英 特尔和其他公司已经给出谨慎展望，有些甚至警告称，经济可能正走向衰退。高通股价盘后跌超6%。 ...

Group 1: Trade Deficit and Economic Impact - The U.S. trade deficit surged to a record high of $162 billion in March, significantly exceeding the $92.8 billion recorded in March 2024, marking the highest level since the early 1990s [1][5] - Imports rose by 5% to $342.7 billion in March, a substantial 31% increase year-over-year, driven by a panic buying spree among businesses ahead of tariff implementations [5][8] - Exports only increased by 1.2% to $180.8 billion, further exacerbating the trade imbalance [5] Group 2: Automotive Industry Response - Trump signed an announcement to ease overlapping tariffs on automakers, providing a two-year grace period for the industry to shift supply chains back to the U.S. [2][9] - The new policy allows automakers to deduct 15% of the value of domestically assembled vehicles from tariffs, aimed at alleviating pressure on the automotive sector [2][9] - Despite the relief measures, the automotive industry remains cautious, with companies like General Motors lowering annual forecasts amid uncertainty over tariff details [10] Group 3: Business Sentiment and Future Outlook - Trade tensions are reshaping the economic landscape, with many companies reporting a chaotic environment due to tariff impacts, leading to lowered GDP forecasts [3][5] - The Dallas Fed's business activity index fell to -35.8, indicating a significant decline in business sentiment and growing pessimism about the economic outlook [6] - Agricultural exporters are facing severe financial losses due to the trade war, with some products experiencing price drops of over 20% [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - European consumers are actively preparing to reduce their purchases of American products and services due to the trade war initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump [1] Group 1 - A recent survey conducted by the European Central Bank indicates that respondents are "very willing" to seek non-American alternatives in response to varying levels of tariffs and the EU's retaliatory measures [1] - The findings suggest that consumer willingness to change purchasing behavior is largely independent of price, which is typically considered a primary factor influencing changes in trade behavior due to tariffs [1]

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) plans to lay off up to 20,000 employees due to a significant reduction in its business with Amazon, which has been halved, amidst the backdrop of a trade war and shifting delivery strategies [1][8]. Group 1: Business Relationship with Amazon - UPS's CEO, Carol Tome, indicated that while Amazon is the largest client, it is not the most profitable, leading to a reassessment of their business relationship [3]. - Amazon's efforts to enhance its own delivery capabilities, including drone shipments, may have influenced UPS's decision to cut back on its services [3]. - The ongoing conflict involving the White House, Amazon, and Chinese suppliers raises questions about the future of UPS's business with Amazon [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Stock Movement - Despite a strong quarterly report where UPS achieved $21.50 billion in revenue, surpassing the forecast of $21.02 billion, and an EPS of $1.49 against an expected $1.38, the stock has seen a significant decline [12]. - UPS stock has dropped nearly 22% year-to-date, with a 1.68% decline in the last week and a 12.06% drop over the past 30 days [12]. - On April 29, UPS shares fell 0.37% to close at $96.73, with a slight pre-market decline to $96.72 [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) main contract 2509 closed at 12,750 yuan/ton, down 0.7% from the previous trading day, breaking below 12,800 yuan/ton again. The market is cautious about the trade war, new cotton sowing, and downstream consumption. In the short - term, Zhengmian will maintain a weak oscillation. The ICE cotton futures fell due to the rebound of the US dollar index and the decline of crude oil prices, with commercial buying support at 64 cents/pound. Zhengmian is expected to continue the oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, tariff policies, and domestic policies. The current Zhengmian 2509 contract has fallen below the planting cost support line, but there is an adjustment window for the state - reserve cotton rotation policy. Technically, there is support at 12,500 yuan/ton and short - term pressure at 13,000 yuan/ton. Investors are advised to pay attention to the repair opportunity of cotton yarn processing fees [2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The closing price of Zhengmian main 2509 contract decreased by 0.7% to 12,750 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. It broke below 12,800 yuan/ton again, and 13,000 yuan/ton became a pressure level in the short - term. The market is cautious about trade war, new cotton sowing, and downstream consumption. The ICE cotton futures fell 1.48% to 66.56 cents/pound overnight, affected by the rebound of the US dollar index and the decline of crude oil prices. There is commercial buying support at 64 cents/pound for the ICE main contract [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On April 30, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 12,355 (-41) sheets, including 11,040 (+202) registered warehouse receipts and 1,315 (-243) valid forecasts [3]. - As of April 28, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 48,600 tons, a decrease of 4.22% from the previous week. Among them, bonded cotton was 44,500 tons, down 3.92%, and non - bonded cotton was 4,100 tons, down 7.40% [5]. - In mid - to late April, the meteorological conditions in Xinjiang were generally favorable for cotton spring sowing. As of April 20, the sowing progress in Xinjiang was 93.9%. It is expected that there will be rainfall and gusts in some areas of northern Xinjiang at the end of April [5]. - As of April 15, the national cotton direct - seeding progress was 75%, 20.8 percentage points faster than the same period last year, and the seedling - transplanting progress was 45.5%, 23.4 percentage points slower than the same period last year. The proportion of farmers using direct - seeding was 74.9%, and that of using seedling - transplanting was 25.1% [6]. - As of the week ending April 27, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 15%, compared with 11% last week, 14% last year, and a five - year average of 14% [6]. 3.3 Data Charts The report provides charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit, cotton yarn import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions, with data sources from Wind and Jinshi Futures Research Institute [8][11][12]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the US may withdraw from the mediation process between Russia and Ukraine if there is no progress. Trump's support rate for handling the US economy has dropped to 36%. Domestically, the spring sowing in Xinjiang's main cotton - producing areas has been completed, with a sowing progress of 98.7%. As of May 15, the cotton field emergence rate in Xinjiang was 32.4%, 4.2 percentage points faster than the five - year average. However, if there is continuous precipitation in early June in northern Xinjiang, 6 - 8% of cotton fields may need replanting [16]. - The Zhengmian 2509 contract has fallen below the planting cost support line, and there is an adjustment window for the state - reserve cotton rotation policy, with a theoretical storage space of about 300,000 - 500,000 tons. Technically, there is support at 12,500 yuan/ton and short - term pressure at 13,000 yuan/ton. Investors are advised to pay attention to the repair opportunity of cotton yarn processing fees, which are currently at the 5% historical quantile [16].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.4.30」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 业务咨询 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 2020.06.30 厦门 行情回顾 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅（%） | 周涨跌 | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2506 | -3.77 | -51.90 | 1324.30 | | | EC2508 | -6.43 | -103.50 | 1505.70 | | | EC2510 | -4.29 | -56.40 | 1258.60 | | | EC2512 | -1.93 | -28.60 | 1450.00 | | | EC2602 | -1.26 | -16.60 | 1300.00 | | | EC2604 | -0.47 | -5.60 | 1194.40 | | 现货 | 指数名称 | | | 收盘价 | | | SCFIS ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.4.30」 宏观市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 作者：廖宏斌 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、本周小结及下周 配置建议 2、重要新闻及事件 3、本周国内外经济 数据 4、下周重要经济指 标及经济大事 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 | 股票 | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 -0.43% | 10 年国债到期收益率-0.20%/本周变动-0.33BP | | | 沪深 300 股指期货 -0.57% | 主力 10 年期国债期货 +0.18% | | | 本周点评：A股主要指数本周窄幅震荡，三大指数涨跌 | 本周点评：央行转为投放，DR007加权利率上行至 | | | 不一。四期指表现分化，中小盘股强于大盘蓝筹股。本 | 1.75%。当前市场一致预期6月前后美联储将重启降息， | | | 周，据中国官方PMI数据，国内经济受外部环境冲击呈 | 届时大概率也是央行货币宽松的兑现窗口，降准可能优 | | | 现"制造业短期承压、非制造业韧性支撑"的特征，但 ...

金十数据4月30日讯，财经网站Forexlive：德国4月CPI月率略高于预期，但不会改变欧洲央行6月份降息 的计划。不过，核心通胀出现了显著的跃升。我们将观察未来几个月事态的发展，但贸易谈判仍是市场 关注的焦点。从长远来看，如果贸易战方面取得进展，可能会看到需求强劲而突然的回升，这将推动经 济活动和价格上涨。这是值得警惕的，因为它可能引发更强硬的利率预期重新定价。 机构：德国CPI略高于预期也不会改变欧洲央行六月降息的计划 ...

（原标题：4月30日成品油价格不作调整 业内预计国际油价将弱势运行） 金联创成品油分析师毕明欣表示，本轮计价周期内，国际原油价格走势震荡下行。具体来看，期初欧佩 克部分产油国将实施补偿性减产的消息对油价起到了支撑作用，此后石油供应增加的预期令油价再度承 压。全球前两大原油消费国互征关税，导致双边贸易流量骤降，贸易局势的不确定性令全球经济增长和 燃料需求增加的预期降温，原油价格下行。 "从供应端来看，'欧佩克+'维持小幅增产态势，6月能否进一步加大增产力度尚不确定。同时，美国原 油产量增长困难，美国对伊朗等产油国的制裁立场延续，供应端尚无明显过剩风险。"隆众资讯成品油 分析师刘炳娟表示，若美国关税减免政策落地，将减弱市场对需求前景的忧虑。此外近期美国原油和成 品油库存双双下降，也为市场带来一定信心。 展望后市，毕明欣认为，虽然美国推迟了部分国家"对等关税"的执行时间，但由贸易战引发的经济衰退 及能源需求下降的预期依然不减。此外，"欧佩克+"内部对于原油产量的分歧，放大原油供应的风险。 预计"五一"期间全球原油市场依旧面临着较大的调整压力。 证券时报记者 陈雨康 据国家发改委网站消息，自2025年4月17日国内成 ...