Group 1 - Ford warned that the impact of tariffs on imported cars and steel/aluminum could exceed previous expectations, leading to a stock price drop of about 3% in after-hours trading [1] - The company reported an $800 million impact from tariffs on its Q2 performance and raised the annual revenue impact estimate by $500 million to $3 billion, expecting a net adverse impact of about $2 billion after mitigation efforts [2][3] - Ford's CEO Jim Farley stated that the company is in daily contact with the White House to negotiate lower tariff costs, particularly on parts, indicating potential for favorable outcomes depending on negotiations [2] Group 2 - Ford's Q2 revenue increased by 5% to $50.2 billion, driven by aggressive discounting and promotional activities, although earnings per share fell by 21% to $0.37, with a net loss of $36 million attributed to special charges and recall costs [5][6] - The company resumed its annual performance guidance after previously suspending it to assess the impact of tariffs [5] - Compared to competitors, Ford's domestic manufacturing base mitigated tariff impacts, with only 20% of its vehicles sold in the U.S. being imported, compared to 45% for General Motors [4][3]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell downplayed expectations for a rate cut in September, leading to declines in U.S. Treasury prices and emerging market currencies [1][2][9] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Powell emphasized the need for patience given the strong U.S. labor market and inflation above target levels [1] - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is now only 40%, while October's probability has risen to 80% [1] - Powell's hawkish comments led to a 7 basis point increase in the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reached a two-month high [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Investors reacted negatively to Powell's statements, with a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries intensifying as he noted the labor market is "in balance" [2][6] - Emerging market currencies fell, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index down 0.1%, marking its fourth consecutive decline [9][12] - The market anticipates that a delay in rate cuts could strengthen the dollar and weaken emerging market currencies [9][12] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent data showed that private sector employment in July exceeded economists' expectations, contributing to a perception of a strong economy [6] - Preliminary data indicated that the U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3% in the second quarter, surpassing market expectations [6] - The U.S. Treasury announced it would maintain its debt auction size but increase the frequency of repurchase operations to enhance liquidity for long-term bonds [7]

金十数据7月31日讯，凯投宏观新兴市场副首席经济学家Shilan Shah在一份报告中表示，美国对印度商 品征收25%的关税可能不是终点。特朗普周三宣布对印度征收关税，并威胁要对其购买俄罗斯石油进行 进一步的惩罚。特朗普将印度描述为朋友，但表示该国的非关税壁垒是繁重和令人讨厌的。Shah补充 称，关税将削弱印度制造业的吸引力。但双边谈判仍在继续，可能仍会达成更好的协议。 凯投宏观：美国对印度征收25%的关税或许不是终点 ...

行情回顾： 国际黄金周三（7月30日）大幅收跌，开盘价3320.62美元/盎司，最高价3333.99美元/盎司，最低价3288.61美元/ 盎司，收盘价3290.38美元/盎司。 消息面： 美国7月ADP就业人数录得10.4万人，高于市场预期7.5万人，前值由-3.3万人上修为-2.3万人。 评论称，美国企业在7月加快了招聘步伐，扭转了上月的大幅放缓，尽管整体增速仍显示出劳动力需求疲软的 迹象。休闲和酒店业以及金融行业的就业增长最为显著，而教育和医疗服务行业则连续第四个月裁员。尽管7 月的数据好于预期，但私营部门的招聘仍远低于去年平均水平。在特朗普总统的经济政策带来更多不确定性之 际，企业在用人决策上趋于谨慎。报告还显示，薪资增长保持稳定。跳槽员工的薪资上涨7%，而留任员工的 薪资涨幅为4.4%。ADP首席经济学家内拉·理查森表示："我们的招聘和薪酬数据大致表明经济健康。雇主们越 来越乐观地认为，作为经济支柱的消费者将保持韧性。" 美国第二季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值录得2.5%，高于市场预期2.3%，前值为3.5%；美国第二季度实际 个人消费支出季率初值录得1.4%，低于市场预期1.5%，前值为0.5 ...

Politico：特朗普计划于周四签署新行政令，对未能在周五截止日期前达成贸易协议的几个国家征收更高的关税。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: FOMC's decline releases hawkish expectations; Gold trend intensity is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][6]. - Silver: Prices have fallen from recent highs; Silver trend intensity is -1, also suggesting a bearish view [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Price Data**: - Gold:沪金2510昨日收盘价773.78,日涨幅0.30%,夜盘收盘价770.68,夜盘跌幅0.32%;黄金T+D昨日收盘价769.48,日涨幅0.30%,夜盘收盘价767.00,夜盘跌幅0.32%;Comex黄金2510昨日收盘价3327.90,日涨幅0.08% [2]. - Silver:沪银2510昨日收盘价9192,日跌幅0.03%,夜盘收盘价9090.00,夜盘跌幅1.32%;白银T+D昨日收盘价9166,日涨幅0.03%,夜盘收盘价9062,夜盘跌幅1.23%;Comex白银2510昨日收盘价37.175,日跌幅3.15% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Gold:沪金2510合约对2512合约价差昨日成交206,379,较前日减少13,553,持仓214,105,较前日增加1,698;Comex黄金2510昨日成交199,901,较前日增加90,801,持仓322,961,较前日增加256,168 [2]. - Silver:沪银2510昨日成交689,866,较前日增加97,939,持仓392,370,较前日减少373;Comex白银2510昨日成交71,289,较前日增加29,664,持仓121,325, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **ETF and Inventory**: - Gold: SPDR黄金ETF持仓955.37,较前日减少1;沪金库存33,462千克,较前日增加2,199;Comex黄金库存（前日）38,166,532金衡盎司,较前日增加132,494 [2]. - Silver: SLV白银ETF持仓（前天）15,149.90,较前日减少24;沪银库存1,208,094千克,较前日增加3228;Comex白银库存（前日）502,296,559金衡盎司,较前日增加599,929 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: - Gold:黄金T+D对AU251 -价差昨日为 -4.30, unchanged from the previous day;买沪金12月抛6月跨期套利成本昨日为4.77,较前日减少0.87;黄金T+D对伦敦金的价差昨日为385.68,较前日减少0.60 [2]. - Silver:白银T+D对AG2510价差昨日为32,较前日增加6;沪银2510合约对2512合约价差昨日为 -8,441,较前日增加16;买沪银12月抛6月跨期套利成本昨日为73.41,较前日减少11.3;白银T+D对伦敦银的价差昨日为4,247,较前日减少799 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: - 美元指数昨日为99.94,日涨幅1.05%;美元兑人民币（CNY即期）昨日为7.18,日涨幅0.04%;欧元兑美元昨日为1.15,较前日减少0.01;美元兑日元昨日为148.59,较前日增加0.05;英镑兑美元昨日为1.21, unchanged from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed has kept rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, with two voting members supporting rate cuts due to slowing economic growth. Powell did not provide guidance on a September rate cut, emphasizing uncertainties in tariffs and inflation and stating that the job market has not weakened [2][4]. - **China's Policies**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to decide on the convening of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and analyzed the current economic situation and economic work. China's preliminary budget for child - rearing subsidies is 90 billion yuan, and applications will be accepted in late August [7]. - **Trade Policies**: Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper, etc. (excluding cathode copper and refined copper), causing a 20% plunge in New York copper prices. The US suspended the minimum exemption for low - value goods. Trump said the US would impose a 25% tariff and "punishment" on India, and announced a comprehensive trade agreement with South Korea, imposing a 15% tariff, with South Korea to provide $350 billion in investment to the US. Trump postponed the implementation of a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods by seven days [7]. - **Economic Data**: The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3%, better than expected. The US ADP employment in July increased by 104,000, exceeding expectations, but employers are more cautious about hiring decisions [7]. - **Natural Disaster**: An 8.8 - magnitude earthquake struck the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia, triggering a tsunami alert in the Pacific Rim, and China launched a second - level emergency response to marine disasters [5].

当地时间7月30日，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）公布最新利率决议，连续第五次将联邦基金利 率目标区间维持在4.25%—4.50%不变，符合市场预期。 值得注意的是，本次美联储声明较上次有三处变化，除了有两人支持降息这一变化外，美联储承认美国 经济有所降温，将"经济活动继续稳步扩张"表述，修改为"上半年经济活动增长有所放缓"。 此外，美联储还修改了对经济前景不确定性的表述，从6月会议的"经济前景的不确定性有所下降，但仍 处于较高水平"改为"经济前景的不确定性仍处于较高水平"。 鲍威尔表示，近期的一些数据表明，美国经济活动增速有所放缓，主要是因为消费者支出（包括出口） 有所减少。相比之下，企业在设备和无形资产上的投资比去年有所上升。住房市场的活动仍然疲弱。 通胀方面，通胀率自2022年年中高点大幅回落，但仍略高于2%的长期目标。受到关税的影响，近期一 些衡量通胀预期的指标整体有所上升。但从更长期来看，大多数通胀预期指标仍然与美联储2%的目标 相符。 鲍威尔在回答记者提问时表示，关税对商品通胀的影响才刚刚开始显现。它的实际影响可能比大家估计 的多，也可能比估计的少，但肯定不会是零。"消费者会承担一部分，企业会 ...

作者：李丹、赵雨荷，华尔街见闻 "新美联储通讯社"："罕见"两人反对，要求立即降息，凸显联储决策者对关税影响的共识在 破裂。 经济学家认为本次声明比预期偏鸽派，9月降息可能性增加，预计本周将公布的PCE和非农 就业数据可能加剧联储分歧。 鲍威尔未就9月降息给出指引，称现在就断言美联储是否会像金融市场预期的那样在9月下调 联邦基金利率还为时过早，给市场对9月降息的预期降温。 尽管美国总统特朗普最近首次亲自"上门"敦促降息，特朗普政府的官员和共和党人一再借"装修门"施 压，美联储仍不为所动。 但这一次，美联储暴露了自去年9月启动降息周期以来对降息行动最大的内部分歧，并且对经济活动的 表述有偏鸽派的调整。 美东时间7月30日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，联邦基金利率的目标区间仍维持在 4.25%至4.5%。 要点： 美联储如市场所料继续暂停降息。 至此，FOMC连续五次货币政策会议决定暂停行动。联储自去年9月起连续三次会议降息，合计降幅100 个基点，自今年1月特朗普上台以来，一直按兵不动。 FOMC票委中，鲍威尔等九人继续支持按兵不动，沃勒和鲍曼主张本次降息25个基点。 相比上次声明，本次删除经济 ...

韩国总统李在明宣布韩国已与美国“结束关税谈判”，并表示这批3500亿美元的资金“将在促进韩国企业积极进入美国市场方面发挥作用，这些行业都是我们具有优势的行业，例如造船、半导体、电池、生物技术和能源”，其中1500亿美元将用于“造船合作，为韩国企业进入美国造船业提供强有力的支持”，并补充说，“实现互利互惠的结果非常重要，而不仅仅是追求单方面的利益。”外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普表示，美韩双方达成一致，美国将对韩国征收15%的关税。同时，美国不会被征收关税。韩国将对美全面开放贸易，接受包括汽车、卡车和农产品在内的美国产品。 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell to a one-week low due to increased inventory and concerns over upcoming U.S. tariffs impacting demand [1] - As of July 30, LME three-month copper closed at $9,698.50 per ton, down $99.50 or 1.02% [2] - LME copper inventories surged by 51% over the past month, reaching 136,850 tons, indicating a supply surplus in the market [4] Group 2 - Strong U.S. economic growth data led to a stronger dollar, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies [3] - Investors are currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding the details of the proposed 50% tariff on copper, which is expected to be implemented on August 1 [3] - Analysts suggest that if the Federal Reserve does not lower interest rates, commodities may face pressure [4]