2025 年 12 月 11 日 策略类●证券研究报告 美联储降息进一步催化春季行情开启 事件点评 投资要点 事件：美联储近日宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点。 对 A 股行业配置的影响：科技和周期等行业可能受益。（1）科技成长和部分周期 行业短期可能受益于美联储降息。一是复盘历史，美联储降息周期中，产业趋势上 行或高景气的行业相对占优。二是当前来看，科技成长和部分周期行业可能相对占 优：首先，以人工智能和机器人为代表的科技产业趋势在中短期可能持续上行；其 次，受益于涨价和新材料需求上升的有色金属、化工等部分周期行业景气度持续上 升。（2）美联储降息下，短期建议关注：一是产业趋势上行的 TMT、商业航天、 机器人、电新、创新药等科技行业；二是高景气的有色金属和化工等周期行业。 风险提示：历史经验未来不一定适用、政策超预期变化、经济修复不及预期。 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 分析师 张欣诺 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910525110001 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 定 调 积 极 ， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [5]. Core Insights - The company is positioned in the automotive parts industry, focusing on three main segments: automotive transmission systems, high-precision component manufacturing, and smart service for commercial vehicle parts. The ongoing transition towards electric and intelligent vehicles is expected to drive demand for high-precision components, presenting significant growth opportunities [5]. - The company has established a partnership with the Hart Robotics Research Institute to develop key components for robotics, indicating a strategic move into the robotics sector. This initiative is expected to leverage the company's existing capabilities in precision manufacturing [5]. - Financial projections indicate steady revenue growth, with total revenue expected to increase from 2,200 million yuan in 2023 to 3,225 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.3% [4][16]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2023 is 2,200 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.9%. By 2027, revenue is projected to reach 3,225 million yuan, with a CAGR of 14.3% [4][16]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 98 million yuan in 2023 to 191 million yuan by 2027, with a notable increase of 20.9% in 2025 [4][16]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.42 yuan in 2023 to 0.81 yuan in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4][16]. Business Segments and Growth Drivers - The automotive transmission system segment is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory, with revenue growth rates projected at 9% in 2025 and 14% in 2027 [5]. - The high-precision component manufacturing segment, particularly in electric vehicle motor shafts, is anticipated to experience significant growth, with revenue growth rates of 10% in 2025 and 25% in 2027 [5]. - The smart service for commercial vehicle parts is also expected to contribute to revenue, with a projected growth rate of 3% in 2025 and 13% in 2027 [5]. Valuation Metrics - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 37.4 in 2023 to 19.8 by 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation compared to industry peers [4][15]. - The report highlights that the company's valuation is below the average of comparable companies, indicating potential for upward price movement [5].

证券日报网讯12月11日，山东威达（002026）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司的电池包产品有 能力进入机器人相关领域，公司也在积极接触机器人公司所需电池包相关产品。 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) have expressed concerns over the declining quality of new IPO applications and non-compliance with regulatory guidelines, particularly in the context of a surge in IPO activity [1][3][6] Group 1: Regulatory Concerns - The joint letter from the SFC and HKEX highlights three main issues: poor quality of listing documents, inadequate responses from sponsors and applicants to regulatory feedback, and failures in the execution of the issuance process [1][6] - The surge in IPOs has led to a significant increase in the workload for market participants, particularly sponsors, resulting in a decline in the quality of submitted documents [3][4] - As of December 9, 2025, there have been 97 IPOs in Hong Kong, raising a net amount of 231.9 billion HKD, a 237% increase year-on-year [3] Group 2: Talent Supply and Industry Dynamics - The rapid expansion of IPO activity contrasts sharply with the lag in the supply of experienced professionals in the investment banking sector, leading to increased workloads for existing staff [4] - The industry is experiencing a talent war due to the surge in new listings, with many firms relying heavily on less experienced employees for foundational work [4][5] - Despite the pressure on work quality, compensation levels in the industry remain high, with average salaries for some Chinese brokers in Hong Kong showing significant increases [5] Group 3: Compliance and Process Execution - The regulatory letter also pointed out that sponsors and applicants have not adequately addressed regulatory comments, leading to unnecessary consumption of regulatory resources [6][7] - Issues in the issuance process include delays in communication and the assignment of inexperienced personnel to key roles, which have hindered compliance with critical timelines [7] - HKEX has implemented a new IPO settlement platform that reduces the time from pricing to trading from five working days to two, increasing the demands on sponsors and applicants [7]

Company Overview - The company was established in 2001 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2011. As of mid-2025, total assets reached CNY 8.023 billion [2] - It is a key supplier in the automotive thermal management and lightweight system components materials sectors, focusing on high-end aluminum alloy material substitution and innovation in various emerging fields [2] Sales Pricing Strategy - The pricing model for aluminum products is based on "aluminum ingot price + processing fee," with the ingot price referencing the monthly average of high and low prices from the Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Exchange [3] Profit Distribution - For the 2024 fiscal year, the company distributed CNY 247.15 million in cash dividends, amounting to CNY 2.00 per 10 shares [4] - For the first half of 2025, the distribution was CNY 123.44 million, at CNY 1.00 per 10 shares [4] Capacity Expansion and Development - The company is actively expanding its production capacity in emerging sectors, including: - 2 million sets of high-strength aluminum system components for new energy vehicles annually - 12 million lightweight aluminum parts for automobiles annually - 14,000 tons of high-efficiency aluminum tubes for home air conditioning annually - 100,000 tons of high-end aluminum-based materials for green electricity annually [5] Acquisition of Foreign Companies - On July 29, 2025, the company approved the acquisition of 100% equity in Alunited France SAS and Alunited Denmark A/S for €1.53 million, followed by an additional €1.47 million for operational capital [6] Establishment of Shanghai Branch - The Shanghai branch was established to enhance competitiveness in automotive, aerospace, robotics, and automation sectors, with registration completed in November 2025 [7] Future Development Outlook - The company anticipates new opportunities driven by global sustainable development policies and industrial upgrades, focusing on energy-efficient and low-consumption innovations in automotive thermal management systems [7] - The ongoing transformation in the automotive industry towards electrification and lightweighting presents both challenges and opportunities, with the company positioned to leverage its advantages in these areas [7]

（记者 王晓波） 世运电路（603920.SH）12月11日在投资者互动平台表示，公司在机器人业务方面积极与国内人形机器 人头部客户展开合作，目前已通过其中部分客户认证，获得新一代人形机器人项目定点。由于客户信息 涉及商业秘密，同时为保障全体客户的合法权益，我们无法就具体客户的合作情况进行披露，还望您理 解。后续若有相关信息符合披露要求，我们会及时对外公布。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：公司PCB有供货宇树科技吗？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent reform of the compensation system in the public fund industry has drawn significant market attention, marking the arrival of an "era of performance" where nearly a thousand fund managers face potential salary reductions due to underperformance [1][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Compensation Reform - According to the new guidelines from the Asset Management Association of China, if a fund manager's product returns are more than 10 percentage points below the performance benchmark over the past three years and the fund's profit margin is negative, their performance-based compensation must be reduced by at least 30% [8]. - Fund companies are required to assess the performance of fund managers managing multiple products based on weighted criteria such as fund size and management duration, excluding funds managed for less than a year from evaluation [8]. Performance Data - As of December 10, there are 9,430 funds with performance data over the past three years, of which 1,615 funds have underperformed their benchmarks by more than 10 percentage points, and 56 funds have underperformed by over 50 percentage points [8]. - Notable underperforming funds include Guangfa High-end Manufacturing A, Fangzheng Fubon Innovation Power A, and Zheshang Smart Economic Dynamics A, with underperformance rates of 82.38%, 75.34%, and 69.84% respectively [8]. Focus on Fund Managers - The performance of senior fund managers over the past three years has become a focal point in the industry, particularly for Chen Xuanmiao from Penghua Fund, whose multiple products have shown poor performance [8]. - Data indicates that all five products managed by Chen Xuanmiao have negative returns compared to their benchmarks, with significant underperformance [8]. Specific Fund Performance - The Penghua Jiangxin Selected A fund has underperformed its benchmark by 28%, while Penghua Vision Return has underperformed by 24.53%, and other funds managed by Chen have similar negative returns [10]. - These funds have experienced notable net value declines, with maximum drawdowns ranging from 21% to 30% [10]. Portfolio Analysis - The top ten holdings across Chen Xuanmiao's five funds show a high degree of overlap, with a significant focus on consumer, pharmaceutical, and some undervalued cyclical sectors [10]. - Key stocks in the top holdings include Gree Electric Appliances, Kweichow Moutai, Renfu Pharmaceutical, and Mindray Medical, all of which are present in all five products [13]. Industry Transformation - The binding of fund managers' performance compensation to specific product benchmarks, rather than solely to fund size and management fees, indicates a profound restructuring of the asset management industry's operational rules [12]. - This shift signifies a fundamental change in industry values, emphasizing long-term investment philosophy, sustainable performance, and overall research capabilities of firms [12].

Market Overview - A total of 34 stocks hit the daily limit up, while 27 stocks faced limit down, resulting in a sealing rate of 56%. Dongbai Group achieved a five-day limit up streak, while Anni Co. had five limit ups in six days [1] - The market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index opening high but closing down 0.7%, and the ChiNext Index dropping 1.41%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 78.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Nearly 4,400 stocks in the market declined, with sectors such as commercial aerospace and newly listed stocks showing gains, while sectors like Fujian and real estate faced losses [1] Stock Performance Analysis - The advancement rate for consecutive limit-up stocks dropped to 25%, with only four stocks achieving three or more consecutive limit ups. Hai Xin Food, a local consumption stock in Fujian, faced two consecutive limit downs, leading to a concentrated release of losses among high-position stocks [3] - The North Exchange's Tianli Composite and Chicheng Co. saw a significant rebound, with the North 50 Index rising nearly 4% after a previous deep adjustment, indicating a potential recovery in the market [3] Sector Highlights - The commercial aerospace sector remains active, with Blue Arrow Aerospace's Wuxi Zhuque No. 3 assembly base aiming for completion by the end of the year and targeting a launch cost of under 20,000 yuan per kilogram. However, aside from Zaiseng Technology's four consecutive limit ups, other high-position stocks in this sector showed weak performance [5] - The consumer sector experienced volatility, with policies aimed at boosting consumption being introduced. Dongbai Group achieved five consecutive limit ups, while other local retail stocks like Yonghui Supermarket saw significant gains [6] Battery Storage and Semiconductor Trends - The global and Chinese battery storage market is expected to see an over 80% growth in shipment volume in 2025, with a projected 40% growth in 2026. Stocks like Nandu Power and Ningde Times showed significant price increases, reflecting a recovery in the storage sector [7] - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to grow by 11% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching $33.66 billion, indicating a positive outlook for the semiconductor industry [17] Future Outlook - The market's short-term sentiment remains cautious, with the ChiNext Index experiencing a three-day decline and approaching a critical support level. The Shanghai Composite Index's technical indicators suggest potential risks of further declines if it fails to recover key moving averages [9]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk hinted that SpaceX may go public in 2026, with potential fundraising aimed at building data centers to support ambitious plans in artificial intelligence, robotics, and Mars colonization [1][7]. Group 1: IPO Announcement - Musk's interaction on social media suggested that SpaceX is considering an IPO, with reports indicating a target valuation of $1.5 trillion and potential fundraising exceeding $30 billion [2][8]. - The anticipated IPO could make SpaceX the largest IPO in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion in 2019 [2][8]. Group 2: Reasons for Going Public - Musk had previously resisted going public due to concerns over shareholder expectations conflicting with his long-term vision for Mars colonization [3][9]. - The surge in revenue from Starlink satellite communications has prompted a shift in Musk's stance towards an IPO [3][9]. Group 3: Funding and Future Plans - Analysts predict SpaceX could generate $22 billion to $24 billion in revenue next year, comparable to NASA's annual budget, but the company requires significant capital for satellite design, manufacturing, and launching [10]. - The IPO is seen as a means to secure necessary funding for developing next-generation Starlink satellites and building a distributed data center network in space [10][11]. Group 4: Mars Colonization Vision - Musk's long-term goal remains the sustainable colonization of Mars, requiring substantial resources, estimated at around $1 trillion for launching 1,000 ships [6][12]. - The integration of artificial intelligence is viewed as crucial for achieving this vision, with Musk planning to leverage AI technologies through SpaceX's initiatives [5][12].

Core Viewpoint - Longyang Electronics (301389.SZ) has stated that its copper foil products are currently not applied in the fields of robotics and new energy vehicles [1] Company Summary - Longyang Electronics is not utilizing its copper foil products in the robotics sector [1] - The company also does not apply its copper foil products in the new energy vehicle sector [1]