欧盟如何应对美国政府关税大棒？答案是两手准备。 欧盟是美国的重要贸易伙伴，美国进口商品中，来自欧盟的最多，2024年美国进口商品中，来自欧盟的占18.5%。在美国出口商品方面，欧盟是其第二大市 场（加拿大居第一）。 对此，欧盟现在的做法是做好两手准备。 一方面希望谈判解决问题。 欧盟负责贸易的官员谢夫乔维奇称，欧盟仍希望通过对话和谈判推动美方取消关税。 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩也说，欧盟已做好和美国谈判的准备。 冯德莱恩甚至提出欧盟和美国互相实行零关税的想法。有意思的是，最近这几天，马斯克也提议美欧之间实现零关税。 不过，零关税听起来似乎很简单公平，真正实行起来难度却非常大。实际上，美国和欧盟在十多年前就想成立完全自由贸易区，当时双边谈判成立"跨大西 洋贸易和投资伙伴关系"（TTIP）。但在特朗普第一任期时，美国政府否定了这个设想。 关税方面，这届美国政府加征关税之前，世贸组织称欧盟对美国商品征收的平均关税为5%，而欧盟认为实际上美欧双边贸易，互相征收的平均关税为1%左 右。 因为各种商品情况不一样，所以征收关税有差别。比如在汽车方面，欧盟对美国汽车征收10%关税，而美国对欧盟汽车征收关税平均为2.5%。前一阵 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. announced a "reciprocal tariff" on all trade partners, which violates WTO rules and significantly impacts U.S.-China economic relations and global economic stability [1] - China responded with a series of countermeasures, including a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports starting April 10, 2025, and added 16 U.S. entities to an export control list [1] - Protests erupted across the U.S. against the government's spending cuts, immigration policies, and tariff increases, with over 500,000 participants in various demonstrations [2] Group 2 - Following the tariff announcement, the U.S. stock market experienced a significant drop, with the wealth of the 500 richest individuals decreasing by $208 billion in one day [2] - Elon Musk publicly criticized the Trump administration's trade policies, indicating a split between him and the administration, which could affect the unity of Trump's support base [4] - Musk's opposition to the tariffs may lead to a shift in investment from the U.S. to China, especially considering Tesla's operations in Shanghai and Musk's personal ties to China [6]

以下文章来源于新能源产业家 ，作者陈帅 新能源产业家 . 中国新能源产业智库，聚焦赛道上的关键产品，关键人物。集深度报道、展览会议、产业研究为一体的 综合产业服务平台。 -广告- 关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤储能 资讯~ 在几乎以一己之力摧毁了战后贸易体系的"对等关税"被美国祭出以后，许多行业都陷入了深深的恐 慌感。而且也忍不住问自己一个问题： 如果从战后开始，维持了 80 年的自由贸易体系真的要结束，如果真的关税的大门在大洋两岸垒 起，这个行业还会好吗？ 尤其是以中国的产能，供应全世界的储能需求的储能行业，还会好吗？ 甚至进一步，还会存在吗？ 我们的判断是： 会疼，但不会毁灭。 我们可以用三个词来概括储能行业未来在美国的境遇： 如梗在喉、刀刺在背、利刃在手。 虽然大家都在疯狂吐槽美国的制造能力，但不得不说，至少美国的地图产能，或者说 PPT 产能， 目前还是拉起了不少量的。 01 如鲠在喉 在懂王的激情操作下，中国企业储能卖到美国的 成本基本上翻番，相当于一颗电池半颗税的水 平。 | 关税类型 | 科科区 | 智施时间 | 加征理由/背景 | 禮音演詞 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term trend of soybean oil 2505 contract may face consolidation [1] - The short - term trend of soybean meal may fluctuate strongly [2] - The short - term futures price of corn will fluctuate within a range, and the idea of range operation should be maintained [3] - After the rapid decline of copper price to release risks, it needs a rest, and tactical defense should be carried out opportunistically [4] - The 2505 contract of lithium carbonate may fluctuate weakly, and short positions can be taken on rallies [5][6] - The market sentiment of steel is pessimistic, and it will fluctuate at a low level [7] - Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke will have a weak rebound at a low level with limited space [8] - The short - term trend of iron ore 2505 is mainly fluctuating strongly, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [9] - After the holiday, the WTI main contract will have a sharp decline. Attention should be paid to the support level of INE crude oil at around 470 yuan/barrel [10] - Attention should be paid to the downstream start - up situation of Shanghai rubber, and the rubber will mainly fluctuate weakly [12] - In the short term, there is a lack of fundamental positive driving factors, and the futures price may fluctuate at a low level [13][14] - Yesterday, the 05 contract on the futures market fluctuated due to short - term macro - sentiment, but the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the futures market will still fluctuate widely in the short term [15] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Information - The price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil is 8270 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3130 yuan/ton (120), Tianjin 3290 yuan/ton (160), Rizhao 3220 yuan/ton (150), Dongguan 3020 yuan/ton (50) [2] - The mainstream purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2082 yuan/ton; the mainstream purchase price of new corn in key enterprises in North China and Huanghuai is 2281 yuan/ton; the purchase price in Jinzhou Port (15% water/volume weight 680 - 720) is 2130 - 2155 yuan/ton; the purchase price in Bayuquan (volume weight 680 - 730/15% water) is 2130 - 2155 yuan/ton [3] - The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 73820 - 75400, down 4540, with a premium of 100 - 200. The import copper ore index is - 26.4, down 2.26 [4] - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 73400 (- 500) yuan/ton, the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 73700 (- 400) yuan/ton, and the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1700 (- 100) yuan/ton [5] - The price of Shanghai rebar is 3170, the start - up rate in Tangshan is 83.13%, the social inventory is 590.95 million tons, and the inventory in steel mills is 207.12 million tons [7] - The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Mongolia 5) is 1200 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) in Rizhao Port is 1330 yuan/ton; the port inventory of imported coking coal is 347.56 million tons; the port inventory of coke is 217.13 million tons [8] - The Platts index of iron ore is 102.95, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5) powder is 768, and the price of Australian iron ore powder with 62% Fe is 787 [9] - The spot prices of rubber are: domestic whole latex 16600 yuan/ton, Thai smoked three - piece 21600 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber 17750 yuan/ton, and No. 20 rubber 16350 yuan/ton. The raw material prices in Ho Ai are: smoked sheet 72.59 Thai baht/kg, latex 67.5 Thai baht/kg, cup lump 60.95 Thai baht/kg, and raw rubber 68.99 Thai baht/kg [11] - The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous period [13] - The mainstream price of national heavy soda ash is 1467.19 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.37 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; among them, the mainstream price of heavy soda ash in East China is 1525 yuan/ton, in North China is 1575 yuan/ton, and in Central China is 1450 yuan/ton, all remaining unchanged compared with the previous period [15] Market Analysis - **Soybean Oil**: Currently, it is the sowing season of American soybeans and the harvesting and export season of South American soybeans. The harvesting of Brazilian soybeans is basically completed. The new crop in South America is likely to have a bumper harvest. In the medium term, the new supply and downstream demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and the medium - term inventory may be sorted out [1] - **Soybean Meal**: The Sino - US tariff policy has caused market panic. The harvesting of South American soybeans is nearly over, and the Sino - US trade tariff war affects the export of American soybeans. Due to the delay of soybean arrival and shutdown for maintenance, the supply of soybean meal may be tight, but it is expected to turn loose when South American soybeans are concentrated on the market later. The terminal breeding demand is average, and downstream feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a rolling basis. The inventory of oil mills remains neutral. Due to the additional high - tariff imposition between China and the US during the Tomb - sweeping Festival, the short - term sentiment of soybean meal is strong [2] - **Corn**: In the international market, the expected planting area of American corn in 2025 is 95.326 million acres, reaching a 12 - year high, and the quarterly inventory is close to market expectations. In the domestic market, farmers have sold nearly 90% of their grain, and the import of corn and substitute grains has decreased significantly year - on - year, reducing the supply pressure. The downstream pig production capacity is recovering, and the feed consumption is expected to increase. However, there are still potential suppressing factors such as policy grain rotation and wheat substitution. Although the recent tariff event may affect the corn price, the price is still mainly dominated by domestic supply and demand [3] - **Copper**: The global "irrational" tariff shock has caused great fluctuations in overseas capital markets, leading to turmoil in overseas - priced non - ferrous metals and the stock market. The continuous status - quo maintenance of the Federal Reserve reflects the uncertainty. In 2025, the topic of ending the interest - rate cut path may be discussed. Domestically, policies are continuously strengthening, which is conducive to the recovery of market sentiment. From the industrial perspective, the raw material shock is still extremely severe, the mining problem has not been completely solved, the inventory accumulation factor has ended, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance, with intensified games between reality and expectations [4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: In terms of cost, the price of lithium ore remains unchanged compared with last week, and the inventory has increased. In terms of supply, the weekly start - up rate continues to increase, but the growth rate slows down, and the salt - lake end has started to resume production. If a large amount of low - cost lithium salt flows into the market, it may impact the price. In terms of demand, the terminal consumption in March has improved month - on - month, the power battery has maintained stable growth, and the production of cathode materials is stable, but the demand is still not enough to drive the price up. The weekly inventory continues to accumulate [5] - **Steel**: The fundamentals of steel have gradually improved, with the far - month contracts stronger than the near - month contracts, and the contango structure has weakened. The current valuation of steel is moderately low. In terms of cost and inventory, policies support the stabilization of the real estate industry. The apparent demand for steel has decreased year - on - year, the raw material price has fluctuated strongly this week, and the cost center of steel has increased dynamically. The social inventory and steel - mill inventory of steel are both decreasing, and the overall inventory level is low. In the short term, the macro - policy expectation dominates the futures market, and the fundamentals are gradually improving, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [7] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply is relatively loose, with the domestic production capacity steadily recovering, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants running smoothly, and the import of Mongolian coal remaining at a high level despite some disturbances. The demand is weak, as steel mills are reducing production, and there is still an expectation of a decline in hot - metal production. The independent coking enterprises maintain a low - inventory strategy for raw materials, and the overall inventory shows a slight accumulation trend. The average profit per ton of coke is running smoothly and is gradually approaching the break - even line [8] - **Iron Ore**: The market has both bullish and bearish factors. On the supply side, the shipment volume of the three major Australian mines in the first quarter increased by 8% year - on - year, the new mining area of Vale in Brazil was put into production ahead of schedule, and the global port inventory reached 145 million tons, a new high since 2023. On the demand side, the resumption of production of Chinese steel mills has slowed down. Although the traditional peak season came in March, the fund - arrival rate of downstream real - estate and infrastructure projects is low, the daily average hot - metal production remains at a low level of 2.25 million tons, steel mills are cautious about replenishing inventory, and the port desilting volume has declined for three consecutive weeks. Overseas demand is differentiated. The production increase of Indian steel mills supports part of the demand, but the substitution effect of Southeast Asian electric - arc furnaces is enhanced, reducing the dependence on iron ore. The market is worried about the contraction of long - process steel - making demand. However, the Fed's interest - rate cut signal in March has weakened the US dollar index, which supports the commodity price. Technically, the main contract of iron ore has strong support at the 110 - dollar mark, and if there is a marginal improvement in demand, the price may have a phased rebound [9] - **Crude Oil**: After the US announced "reciprocal tariffs" and China counter - imposed, the global capital market fell sharply, and crude oil was hit hard. The overseas market fell by more than 10% during the holiday. There is a risk of a limit - down opening of domestic crude oil and fuel oil after the holiday. OPEC+ decided to increase production in May, and the rare contraction of the US PMI data in February has raised concerns about demand. The crude oil price has fallen below the previous low support and entered a technical bear market. The US trade war and the delay of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have increased uncertainty, and the demand in the second quarter may be severely dragged down by the trade war [10] - **Rubber**: The US "reciprocal tariffs" have a great impact on China's tire and automobile exports, causing the rubber price to fall across the board. The fundamental factors are secondary to the macro - sentiment. Fundamentally, the domestic whole - latex production is gradually resuming, and the Southeast Asian production areas are gradually stopping production. The supply in Thailand's southern region is still abundant. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose, and the market is hyping up macro - narratives such as the trade war. The US automobile tariff may seriously suppress the global rubber demand [12] - **PVC**: In terms of supply, the start - up rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 80.02%, an increase of 0.21% month - on - month and 2.17% year - on - year. Among them, the start - up rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC was 82.40%, an increase of 0.51% month - on - month and 2.63% year - on - year, and the start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.77%, a decrease of 0.58% month - on - month and an increase of 1.55% year - on - year. In terms of demand, the domestic downstream product enterprises have not improved significantly, and the transactions are mainly for rigid demand. In terms of inventory, as of April 3, the social inventory of PVC has decreased by 3.41% month - on - month to 77.78 million tons, a decrease of 11.65% year - on - year. The inventory in East China and South China has also decreased. The futures price on April 7 was affected by extreme macro - fear factors, opening sharply lower and then rebounding, but still closing at a low level. The current supply - demand contradiction is still prominent, the inventory is relatively high, and the downstream demand is weak [13] - **Soda Ash**: In terms of supply, the overall start - up rate of soda ash last week was 85.09%, an increase of 2.72% month - on - month, and the output was 713,000 tons, an increase of 22,800 tons month - on - month, with a growth rate of 3.30%. The equipment maintenance has gradually recovered, and the output has increased. In terms of inventory, the manufacturer's inventory last week was 1.7014 million tons, an increase of 71,400 tons month - on - month, with a growth rate of 4.38%, and the inventory has significantly accumulated. The social inventory shows a downward trend. The demand is average, and the middle and downstream enterprises replenish inventory for rigid demand for low - price goods and still resist high - price goods. The tariff policy has limited impact on the soda - ash market, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and various countries, particularly focusing on President Trump's insistence on maintaining tariffs and the implications for international trade relationships, especially with the EU and Japan. Group 1: Trade Policies and Tariffs - Elon Musk urged President Trump to reconsider the new tariff policies, but his appeal was unsuccessful as Trump confirmed he would not pause the "reciprocal tariffs" policy [2] - Trump emphasized that enforcing tariffs and negotiating with other economies are not mutually exclusive actions [2] - The U.S. government is pushing for the EU to purchase more American energy to address trade deficits, with Trump stating that the EU must buy energy from the U.S. [8] Group 2: Impact on Wealth and Markets - The recent stock market decline resulted in a loss of $1.6 trillion in market value for seven major U.S. tech stocks, significantly affecting the wealth of tech billionaires [5] - Musk's net worth decreased by over $30 billion in just two days, while other tech billionaires like Bezos and Zuckerberg also saw substantial losses [5] Group 3: International Trade Relations - Trump pressured Japan to open its markets, claiming that Japan benefits unfairly from the U.S. automotive trade [10] - The Japanese Prime Minister expressed disappointment over the U.S. insistence on implementing tariffs despite previous communications [10]

文 ｜ 明明 余经纬 秦楚媛 周昀锋 特朗普宣布"对等关税"政策后，或是出于对未来美国基本面的担忧，美元指数不涨反跌。考虑到对 个别国家和地区单独加征关税落地前仍是谈判窗口期，预计美元指数或波动加剧。中期维度下，美 元指数的交易逻辑或仍在于美国与欧日等非美经济体在货币政策以及基本面表现的差异，单纯的贸 易逆差收窄甚至转为顺差并不能支撑美元走强，同时美元指数或也难单边大幅下行。美元的长期逻 辑则相对复杂，且存在多个矛盾点。一是加征关税或率先引发贸易国货币走贬，与弱美元政策矛 盾。二是弱美元政策需要与同盟配合，采取人为操纵，这与美元维持国际货币地位矛盾。三是加征 关税背景下，美国通胀或反复并导致货币政策难以宽松，美元指数难以大幅走弱。 ▍ 美元指数的短期逻辑仍在于货政差和经济差。 特朗普宣布"对等关税"政策后，美元指数不涨反跌，日元和瑞郎作为传统避险货币表现亮眼。在 对个别国家和地区单独加征关税落地前，各经济体与美国的谈判存在不确定性，预计美元指数短 期维持高波动。中期维度下，美元指数的交易逻辑或仍在于美国与欧日等非美经济体在货币政策 以及基本面表现的差异，单纯的贸易逆差收窄甚至转为顺差并不能支撑美元走强，同时美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. government has led to significant market volatility, with major declines in U.S. stock markets and other asset classes, indicating a potential liquidity shock and a loss of confidence in the global economic order [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Tariff Overview - The "reciprocal tariffs" are extensive, applying a baseline 10% tariff on all trade partners, with effective rates potentially rising above 23%, marking a historical high [2][6][10]. - Specific countries facing higher tariffs include Vietnam (46%), Thailand (36%), and China (34%), among others, with exemptions for certain goods [3][11]. Economic Impact - The tariffs are expected to increase inflationary pressures in the U.S., with estimates suggesting a rise in inflation by 1.5-2 percentage points, potentially leading to a GDP drag of approximately 0.7 percentage points [20][21][27]. - The effective tax rate on imports has already increased from 2.3% to 5.7% prior to the tariffs, and is projected to rise significantly due to the new measures [10][6]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets have experienced a sharp decline, with the Nasdaq index dropping over 5% in two days, reflecting heightened risk premiums and investor uncertainty [1][30]. - The volatility has also affected other asset classes, including commodities like oil and gold, while the U.S. dollar has shown signs of pressure due to long-term policy confidence issues [1][34]. Sector-Specific Effects - Industries with significant exposure to U.S.-China trade, such as electronics and consumer goods, are likely to face substantial impacts, with potential declines in earnings growth for affected sectors [38][44]. - The tariffs may lead to a reevaluation of supply chains, with companies potentially seeking to mitigate risks through diversification or relocation of production [41][46]. Global Implications - Emerging markets, particularly those with high exposure to U.S. exports like Vietnam and Thailand, are expected to experience significant economic impacts, with potential currency depreciation and capital outflows [45][49]. - The overall sentiment in global markets is likely to remain cautious, with investors closely monitoring the developments in tariff negotiations and retaliatory measures from affected countries [12][37].

Group 1 - The U.S. plans to increase the anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood lumber from 14.4% to 34.45% [1] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney warned that Trump's tariff policies could lead the U.S. into a recession, significantly increasing the risk of economic downturn [1] - Carney emphasized that the tariffs fundamentally harm the U.S. economy and, consequently, the global economy, leading to market reactions [1] Group 2 - Trump announced a 10% "baseline tariff" on all countries, effective April 5, with higher tariffs on countries with significant trade deficits to follow [2] - Carney stated that Canada would respond to U.S. auto tariffs with a 25% countermeasure, indicating ongoing trade tensions [2] - Economic experts predict that the tariffs could lead to a significant increase in U.S. inflation and a potential recession, with global economic growth slowing by at least 1 percentage point [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The implementation of reciprocal tariffs has led to significant market volatility, with the effective tax rate in the US reaching its highest point in nearly a century, at least 23% [2][4] - The tariffs are expected to increase inflation by approximately two percentage points, raising overall inflation to between 4% and 5%, which complicates the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates [8][11] - The market is currently facing liquidity shocks, stagflation risks, and concerns regarding the strength of the US dollar, which could impact GDP by at least 0.7 percentage points and reduce profit expectations to around 5% [11][12] Summary by Sections Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs - The tariffs have resulted in a uniform 10% baseline tariff on all trade partners, with some partners, like China, facing additional tariffs due to non-tariff barriers [2][4] - Market reactions include a sell-off of high-valuation stocks, a decline in US equities and the dollar, and a rise in bonds and gold due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [2][3][5] Future Monetary Policy Framework - Future monetary policy will need to address domestic liquidity and policy space, with central banks potentially taking measures to counteract market volatility caused by tariffs [6] - The liquidity risk can be monitored through indicators like the VIX index, with current issues primarily concentrated in the stock market [7] Inflation and Economic Growth - The tariffs are projected to push inflation higher, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and increasing the risk of stagflation [8][11] - The weakening of the dollar is attributed to a combination of factors, including increased competition in the tech sector and the impact of tariffs on cross-border capital flows [9][10] Specific Industry Impacts - The tariffs will significantly affect export-oriented sectors in China, with an overall tariff level exceeding 70% for certain goods, leading to a need for fiscal support to mitigate profit losses [12] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to face pressure, with potential volatility increasing due to external challenges from the tariffs [13] Long-term Risks and Considerations - The report highlights three main risks: liquidity shocks, stagflation risks, and the influence of the dollar on global capital allocation [11] - The reciprocal tariffs may lead to a broader impact on global trade dynamics, affecting specialized supply chains and trade relationships [24]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生 （18482259975） 报告摘要 特朗普关税后的股汇表现有无规律？ 特朗普公布超预期关税之后，以股市和汇率为典型代表的风险资产明显回调。 选择美国前50个贸易伙伴 （不含墨、加）加上墨西哥和加拿大，观察其汇率和股指表现与几组经济指标的关系 。 1、去掉缺失值和部分盯住美元的汇率，汇率的有效样本为38个，在4月3日-4日，上涨的有13个，下跌的有 25个。发达经济体的汇率（-0.8%）平均跌幅大于非发达市场（-0.3%）。 2、去掉缺失值，股指的有效样本为34个，在4月3日-4日，上涨的有3个，下跌的有31个。发达经济体股指 （-5.2%）平均跌幅大于非发达市场（-3.9%）。 3、美国贸易伙伴的股汇表现，与其在美国进口中的份额占比、经济体量、人均GDP水平、出口依赖度之 间，没有明显的相关性 。 4、各经济体的汇率表现，似乎与美国对其加征的对等关税税率呈现一定的正相关性，对等关税税率越高， 汇率的表现反而相对较好。 股指表现与对等关税税率没有明显相关性。进一步观察，各经济体汇率表现， 与对等关税 ...