针对关税谈判，欧盟发出最新警告！ 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩当地时间10日表示，如果与美国的关税谈判失败，欧盟可能会对美国的大型科技公 司征收关税。 股市方面，由"对等关税"引发的波动仍在持续。周五，欧洲股市巨震，德国DAX指数、法国CAC40指数集体 高开，开盘不久后涨幅均超过1%，不过随便出现大跳水，德国DAX指数盘中一度跌超2%，法国CAC40指数 一度跌超1.6%。 本周，美股也被抛售。美国银行全球研究部周五表示，在截至周三的5个交易日里，由于"对等关税"引发的市 场动荡，外国投资者抛售了65亿美元的美国股票。 周五盘中，美股三大指数也大幅波动。截至北京时间晚上10点30分，道指跌0.78%，纳指跌0.93%，标普500 指数跌0.84%。大型科技股多数下跌，特斯拉跌超3%，亚马逊跌1.59%，苹果跌0.25%。中概股表现相对较 强，纳斯达克中国金龙指数微跌0.10%，金山云涨近10%，小鹏汽车涨超7%，理想汽车涨超4%，百度集团涨 超2%。 据报道，欧盟将"反胁迫工具"视作其"最强大的经济武器"，这项工具不仅可以被用来向进口商品征税，还可限 制第三国公司参与公共采购项目，或对服务贸易和投资设限。除了可能 ...

2025.04. 11 本文字数：2499，阅读时长大约4分钟 导读 ： 冯德莱恩表示，针对特朗普所谓的"对等关税"的进一步反制措施可能会针对美国对欧盟的巨额服务顺 差。 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 日前，欧盟委员会主席冯德拉恩在接受公开采访时表示，若同特朗普政府谈判失败，欧盟就准备部署 其最强有力的贸易措施，并可能对美国数字企业征税。 她还表示，欧盟将在特朗普政府暂停征收额外关税的90天内，寻求与华盛顿达成一项 "完全平衡 "的 协议。 不过，"我们正在制定报复性措施，"她解释说，这些措施可能包括首次使用欧盟反胁迫工具。 针对是否谈判双方能够实现合作共赢这种前景，欧洲工商管理学院经济学教授、欧洲经济政策研究中 心（CEPR）副主席法塔斯（Antonio Fatas）对第一财经记者表示，目前看到的进程并不理性。"我 们谈论的是，目前引导美国的是一种缺乏战略和错误的逻辑。当一方从这个角度出发时，就很难考虑 什么是最佳的谈判问题。我无法预测美国总统特朗普的想法。我希望经济现实能让他的立场趋于合 理。到目前为止，这一切都没有发生。" "再也回不去了" 冯德莱恩在采访中表示，特朗普的贸易战已经造成了"全球贸易的彻底拐 ...

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Trade - The "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the U.S. are unlikely to resolve the structural trade deficit, leading to escalating tariff levels, particularly against China, which saw tariffs rise to 125%[7] - If trade negotiations occur mid-year, China's exports to the U.S. could decline by approximately 40%, impacting total exports by 5% and GDP by 0.6%[2] - Delayed negotiations until year-end could result in an 8% decline in total exports, with a 26% impact on trade surplus and a GDP effect of 1.2%[2] Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Trends - The last significant rise in U.S. tariffs occurred between 1920-1933, contrasting sharply with the current economic and political landscape[2] - Historical tariff increases have often led to retaliatory measures from other countries, significantly affecting U.S. exports and contributing to economic downturns[40] - The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 raised tariffs to historic highs, exacerbating the Great Depression and leading to a 66% decline in world trade from 1929 to 1934[46] Group 3: Asset Market Outlook - The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken in the long term due to the "Triffin Dilemma," despite short-term volatility caused by market uncertainty[3] - U.S. Treasury yields are projected to remain stable, with the Federal Reserve expected to pause interest rate cuts in May and potentially lower rates four times within the year, totaling 100 basis points[3] - The U.S. stock market is anticipated to face downward pressure due to policy uncertainties and recession fears, leading to continued volatility[3]

福克斯商业高级记者查理·加斯帕里诺披露更多隐情。加斯帕里诺称，政策转向的导火索是一家日本金融机构的大规模美债抛售，而日本正是美国最大的债 券持有国。 多家基金公司向加斯帕里诺证实，由于该机构重仓股票出现暴跌，不得不抛售美债头寸以补充流动性。 来源：国际财闻汇 美东时间4月9日，"对等关税"刚刚生效数小时，特朗普突然宣布冻结该关税政策90天。 180度大转弯背后，发生了什么？据美媒透露，美债遭抛售是特朗普决定暂停"对等关税"的主要因素。 加斯帕里诺宣称是从白宫内部获得的信息，"日本强迫总统采取这一行动"。"如果大规模出售债券，那就意味着人们对美国经济失去了信心，也失去了与我 们做交易的能力。根据我获得的信息，我们被迫实行90天的暂停措施，"加斯帕里诺补充道。 以爱国者自居的加斯帕里诺辩称，这并非特朗普一手策划的主动出击，而更像是白宫在债市压力面前的"投降"。 当天，10年期美债收益率在两天内飙升近40个基点，一度触及4.5%的敏感关口，30年期收益率更升破5%的心理防线。 【 热门视频推荐 】 点击在 看 持续关注↓↓↓ ...

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's executive order to revoke water usage standards for appliances like showers and dishwashers, allowing for higher water flow rates [1] - Under previous regulations, water flow for these appliances was limited to 2.5 gallons per minute (approximately 9.5 liters), which was reinstated during Biden's administration after being relaxed during Trump's first term [1] - Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the previous regulations, stating that they made it difficult to wash effectively, particularly for personal grooming [1] Group 2 - Environmental advocacy groups argue that the water usage limits implemented during Biden's presidency helped reduce energy consumption and were beneficial for environmental protection [1] - Data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency indicates that shower water usage accounts for about 20% of indoor water use in an average American household, and the energy used for heating water constitutes around 20% of total household energy consumption [1]

重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 特朗普政府于4月2日推出了新一轮关税措施，该政策方案的力度与覆盖范围显著超出了市场预期，进而 引发了全球金融市场的震荡。根据最新动态，美国对部分国家实行为期90天的"对等关税"缓冲期，并执 行10%的普遍性关税政策。尽管该措施的全面实施已被暂时推迟，但可以确定的是，此举将对国际贸易 格局与全球金融体系产生持久的影响。 失衡的贸易平衡目标与制造业回流的困境 新一轮关税政策的短期冲击已引发市场动荡，但更值得关注的是美国通过关税试图达成的政策目标。 根据美国政府官员近期的一些公开发言整理来看，此次关税行动可能主要有两个目的。 第一，以极端施压手段实现美国定义下的贸易平衡，缩减贸易逆差。 其施压手段不仅包括普遍的"对等关税 " ，还涉及诸多非关税壁垒、增加进口美国商品等内容。以越南 为例，其在美国宣布关税措施后以 " 零关税 " 条件积极回应，然而，美国仍要求越南承诺取消知识产 权窃取、出口补贴、倾销等非关税壁垒，但上述贸易壁垒并未在 " 对等关税 " 的税率确定中进行过调 查和 ...

重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 特朗普政府于4月2日推出了新一轮关税措施，该政策方案的力度与覆盖范围显著超出了市场预期，进而 引发了全球金融市场的震荡。根据最新动态，美国对部分国家实行为期90天的"对等关税"缓冲期，并执 行10%的普遍性关税政策。尽管该措施的全面实施已被暂时推迟，但可以确定的是，此举将对国际贸易 格局与全球金融体系产生持久的影响。 02 第二，通过高关税提高外国商品的成本，降低其比较优势，促使制造业回流美国。 失衡的贸易平衡目标与制造业回流的困境 新一轮关税政策的短期冲击已引发市场动荡，但更值得关注的是美国通过关税试图达成的政策目标。 根据美国政府官员近期的一些公开发言整理来看，此次关税行动可能主要有两个目的。 第一，以极端施压手段实现美国定义下的贸易平衡，缩减贸易逆差。 其施压手段不仅包括普遍的"对等关税 " ，还涉及诸多非关税壁垒、增加进口美国商品等内容。以越南 为例，其在美国宣布关税措施后以 " 零关税 " 条件积极回应，然而，美国仍要求越南承诺取消知识产 权窃取、出口补贴、倾销 ...

A： 4月2日，特朗普宣布对中国等贸易逆差国征收不同的对等关税，对其他贸易伙伴征收10%全面关 税。之后中国强硬加对等关税反制，全球风险资产大幅下跌。4月9日特朗普宣布除对中国维持125% 关税外，其余贸易伙伴的对等关税延期90天执行，仅维持10%全面关税，全球风险资产开始修复跌 幅。 特朗普的反复无常体现了其政策讹诈的本质。 特朗普执政的基本盘在于增加美国财政收入和推动制造 业回流美国，但从所谓"对等关税"的计算中不难看出其团队不仅不尊重基本的经济和国际贸易规律， 而且显然操之过急，企图实现美国经济结构转型的"大跃进"。后续美股和美债市场的暴跌证明了特朗 普政策的不可持续性，重重压力之下特朗普选择暂缓关税，短短几天之内重大国际政策大幅反转，特 朗普通过关税工具进行政策讹诈的意图非常明确。虽然目前中美之间仍然维持125%的关税，但特朗普 后退一步反而打开了中美贸易谈判的空间。 国际形势快速变化的背景下，关键是做好中国自己的事。 在实现经济新旧动能的转换方面中国已经做 了多年的不懈努力和艰难取舍（如主动刺破房地产泡沫），并已取得显著的喜人成果（如培育和发展 新质生产力），使经济中的结构性矛盾大大缓解。鉴于此，在 ...

市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美关税政策引发市场恐慌，市场担忧美农产品出口因此遭到影 响。 （2）国际大豆：巴西大豆收割接近尾声，关注最终产量。加征关税背景下，美豆出口悲观 预期仍存。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：到港大豆逐渐丰裕，市场预期 5-7 月大豆到港超千万吨。终端养殖 需求一般，叠加下游饲料企业高库存高头寸，主要以滚动补库为主。油厂豆粕库存维持中 性。 参考观点：多重因素共振，豆粕短线或区间震荡。 1、现货市场：张家港东海粮油一级豆油 8290 元/吨，较上一交易日涨 60 元/吨。 2、宏观：特朗普时期的"对等关税"政策通过重塑全球贸易流、产业链定价权及市场风险 偏好，对期货市场形成了系统性冲击。 3、市场分析：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。后市豆油中期新增供给与下 游需求或维持中性，豆油中期库存或维持整理。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或面临整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3120 元/吨（-20）、天津 3330 元/吨（-10）、 日照 3280 元/吨（-20）、东莞 298 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The volatility of the USD/CNY exchange rate will intensify in the short term due to trade policy uncertainties. In the medium term, with the Fed's policy shift and the narrowing of the interest rate spread, the RMB has a chance to stabilize periodically [55]. - The Trump administration's "reciprocal tariffs" policy will push up the price level in the US, increasing the short - term upward pressure on inflation. The US economy will face a more severe "stagflation" risk, and the narrative of recession or stagflation may continue [25]. Summary by Directory Quantity - Price and Policy Signals Quantity - Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the US dollar, with the call - end volatility significantly higher than the put - end, and the volatility rising significantly. The market's expectation of the future volatility of the USD/CNY exchange rate has increased [5]. - The term structure data of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNY futures and bank forward premiums and discounts, as well as the US - China interest rate spread, are presented, but specific trends are not clearly summarized in the text [8][10][11]. Policy Observation - The policy counter - cyclical factor has been activated, but the overall willingness to stabilize the exchange rate is lower than in the previous round. The policy counter - cyclical factor shows a continuous upward trend, and the US - China interest rate spread shows an upward trend. The three - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread has narrowed [16]. Fundamentals and Views Macro - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 95bp by 2025, and the pricing of US interest rate cuts continues to rise. Short - term interest rates are rising, the TGA account balance was 301.6 billion on April 2, and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was 233.4 billion US dollars [20]. - The US economy has a rising downside risk. Employment data is mixed, with the February non - farm payrolls falling short of expectations and the unemployment rate rising; inflation is rebounding; the economy maintains resilience, with retail sales and fiscal spending falling, the manufacturing industry falling in March, and the service industry rebounding [22]. Events - On April 2, Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" policy was implemented, including a 10% "benchmark tariff" on all countries and personalized higher "reciprocal tariffs" on countries with large trade deficits with the US. The tariff scale considers value - added tax, trade deficits, "exchange - rate manipulation, and non - tariff barriers". There are exempted goods and countries, and the policy contains a "modification right" [24][25]. - Many countries have taken counter - measures against the US tariffs, including condemnation, negotiation, and counter - tariffs [26]. - The "reciprocal tariffs" policy is beyond market expectations. From the perspective of tariff rate comparison, most of the top 15 trading partners of the US in 2024 had higher most - favored - nation tariff rates than the US in 2022. From the perspective of trade surplus, countries/regions such as China, the EU, Mexico, and Vietnam have large trade surpluses with the US [27]. - The US may further increase tariffs on China. A review of the previous round of Trump's tariff increases shows that the RMB and A - shares were under pressure, and the RMB depreciated by about 8% at most during the three - round tariff increases. Among commodities, iron ore and non - ferrous metals were most directly affected [33]. 3 - Month Data - The US non - farm payrolls in March exceeded expectations, with consumption - related industries (retail), trade, and the government contributing to the increase. The hourly wage in March increased by 0.25% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year, which may intensify long - term inflation. The impact of the March non - farm payrolls was small, and the market was dominated by tariff concerns in the short term [37]. - In March, the US "rush to export" ended. The US manufacturing PMI was 49.8 (52.7), the service industry PMI was 54.3 (51), and the composite PMI was 53.5 (51.6). The service industry offset the decline in manufacturing. In Europe, the manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (47.6), the service industry PMI was 50.4 (50.6), and the composite PMI was 50.4 (50.2) [38]. - China's economic structure is differentiated. From January to February, industrial production, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing investment maintained high growth rates, while consumption and real - estate investment improved month - on - month, and the decline in real - estate sales narrowed significantly. Import and export growth rates declined, and the credit structure did not improve significantly. The economic sentiment rebounded in March [41]. - In March, China's PMI improved month - on - month but was weaker than the seasonal average year - on - year. Production increased less than new orders. The "rush to export" continued in March, imports decreased by 2% month - on - month, and finished - product inventories decreased. The industry sentiment was transmitted from upstream to downstream [43]. Overall View - The current situation shows a neutral economic expectation gap between China and the US, a neutral Sino - US interest rate spread, and trade policy uncertainties that are favorable to the US dollar. In the short term, the USD/CNY exchange rate will fluctuate more due to trade policy uncertainties. In the medium term, the RMB may stabilize periodically [55]. Risk Assessment - The range of the basis fluctuation of the futures main contract from April 2022 to the present (nearly 3 years) is between - 1100 and 900 [56].