Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices oscillated and declined. The cease - fire between Israel and Iran, Fed Chair Powell's statement on the lack of urgency to cut interest rates, and the Sino - US trade agreement on rare earth supply led to a significant decline in the price of gold as a safe - haven asset. Silver was more resilient but also fell on Friday [4][7]. - Trump criticized Canada's digital tax, terminated US - Canada trade negotiations, and threatened new tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary hinted at a possible extension of the "tariff deadline" from July 9 to September 1. The US and China finalized a trade understanding on rare earth exports, and the US will lift trade counter - measures if China exports rare earths to the US [4][8]. - With the easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the improvement in Sino - US trade relations, and the rise in the US core PCE supporting Powell's view, market expectations of monetary easing have decreased, putting pressure on safe - haven assets. It is expected that the prices of gold and silver will continue to adjust in the short term [4][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data - SHFE gold closed at 768.64 yuan/gram, down 9.94 yuan or 1.28%. Its total trading volume was 148,475 lots, and the total open interest was 178,255 lots [5]. - Shanghai Gold T + D closed at 763.08 yuan/gram, down 14.86 yuan or 1.91%. The total trading volume was 38,222 lots, and the total open interest was 213,128 lots [5]. - COMEX gold closed at 3286.10 dollars/ounce, down 98.30 dollars or 2.90% [5]. - SHFE silver closed at 8792 yuan/kilogram, up 128 yuan or 1.48%. The total trading volume was 522,479 lots, and the total open interest was 634,627 lots [5]. - Shanghai Silver T + D closed at 8748 yuan/kilogram, up 18 yuan or 0.21%. The total trading volume was 477,072 lots, and the total open interest was 3,111,050 lots [5]. - COMEX silver closed at 36.17 dollars/ounce, up 0.21 dollars or 0.60% [5]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The decline in precious metal prices was due to the cease - fire in the Middle East, Powell's statement on interest rates, and the Sino - US trade agreement on rare earths. Silver was more resilient due to the strong performance of platinum and palladium but also fell on Friday [4][7]. - After the cease - fire declaration, there were still mutual attacks between Iran and Israel, but the conflict did not worsen further. Iran's foreign minister said there was no plan to restart nuclear negotiations [7]. - Powell maintained a wait - and - see stance on interest rates, which dissatisfied Trump. Trump considered announcing Powell's successor in advance, causing market concerns [8]. - The US - Canada trade relationship became tense again, but Sino - US trade relations improved. The rise in the US core PCE supported Powell's view, and short - term gold and silver prices are expected to continue adjusting [4][8]. - This week, focus on the US June non - farm payroll data and the global central bank forum, especially Powell's remarks [9][11]. 3. Important Data Information - In May, the US core PCE price index rose 2.7% year - on - year, slightly exceeding expectations. The core PCE price increased 0.2% month - on - month, while real personal consumption expenditure decreased 0.3% month - on - month, and personal income decreased 0.4% month - on - month. Fed's Kashkari still expects two rate cuts this year, with the first possibly in September [12]. - The final value of the US Q1 real GDP decreased 0.5% annually and quarter - on - quarter, higher than expected. Personal consumption growth was revised down to 0.5%, and the core PCE price index was revised up to 3.5% [12]. - Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 10,000 to 236,000, lower than expected. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week rose to 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021 [12]. - The initial value of US durable goods orders in May increased 16.4% month - on - month, the largest increase since July 2014. Core capital goods orders increased 1.7% [13]. - The initial value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 53.1, and the manufacturing PMI was 5.0, the highest since February. The raw material payment price index rose 5.4 points, and the price acceptance index also increased [13]. - The initial value of the Eurozone's June composite PMI was 50.2, lower than expected. Germany's composite PMI rose to 50.4, while France's fell to 48.5 [13]. - US consumer confidence in June unexpectedly declined. The consumer confidence index decreased 5.4 points to 93 [13]. - The one - year inflation expectation in the Michigan University consumer survey was adjusted from 5.1% to 5.0%, and the 5 - year inflation expectation was 4.0%, both lower than the previous values [14]. 4. Related Data Charts - As of June 27, 2025, the total gold position in ETFs was 954.82 tons, an increase of 4.58 tons from the previous week. The silver position in ishare was 14,866.19 tons, an increase of 115.91 tons from the previous week [15]. - As of June 24, 2025, the non - commercial net long position in gold futures was 195,004, a decrease of 5,644 from the previous week. The non - commercial net long position in silver futures was 62,947, a decrease of 4,227 from the previous week [17]. - The report also provides multiple charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, net long position changes, and price differences of precious metals, as well as the relationships between precious metals and other economic indicators such as the US dollar index, inflation expectations, and bond yields [19][21][26]

Market Overview - The overall market rebounded last week, with major indices mostly rising. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3424.23 points, up 1.91% for the week, while the ChiNext Index closed at 2124.34 points, up 5.69% [1] Sector Performance - In the CITIC industry sectors, comprehensive finance, computer, and comprehensive indices had the highest gains, while transportation, food and beverage, and oil and petrochemical indices experienced the largest declines [1] - The valuation levels and weekly performance of major A-share indices were as follows: ChiNext Index at 32.16 (up 5.69%), CSI 1000 at 38.57 (up 4.62%), and CSI 500 at 28.71 (up 3.98%) [2] Bond Investment Trends - As of the end of May, the bond investment balance of large Chinese banks reached approximately 49.54 trillion yuan, marking a growth of 2.65 trillion yuan this year [3] - Meanwhile, the bond investment balance of small and medium-sized Chinese banks rose to 46.41 trillion yuan, with a year-to-date increase of 3.6 trillion yuan [4] Gold Market Dynamics - Last Friday, gold prices saw a significant drop, with spot gold falling over 2% at one point and ultimately closing down 1.63%, dipping below $3300 per ounce [6] - Over the past week, spot gold has decreased by 2.8%, influenced by easing tensions in the Middle East and progress in tariff negotiations, which shifted some funds to the stock market [7] Hong Kong Market Changes - The Hong Kong market will implement a new share trading fee structure starting June 30, 2025, increasing the fee from 0.002% to 0.0042% of the transaction amount, while removing the minimum and maximum fee limits [8] Trade Relations - The U.S. has announced the cessation of all trade negotiations with Canada due to Canada's insistence on a digital services tax targeting U.S. tech companies [9][10] ETF Growth - The first batch of benchmark market-making credit bond ETFs has seen explosive growth, with three ETFs surpassing 20 billion yuan in scale, indicating strong market interest due to lower credit risk and higher tracking efficiency [11]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions and progress in tariff negotiations, which reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][3][5]. Market Performance - On Friday, spot gold prices fell by 1.63%, closing at $3,273 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 2.8%. COMEX gold futures also dropped by 1.85%, closing at $3,286 per ounce, marking a second consecutive week of losses [4]. - The lowest point for spot gold during the day was $3,255 per ounce, while COMEX futures hit a low of $3,266.5 per ounce, with intraday declines exceeding 2% [4]. Influencing Factors - The recent ceasefire in the Middle East has diminished the geopolitical risk premium, which traditionally supports gold prices. Analysts suggest that the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is likely to continue decreasing [5][6]. - Despite a five-day decline in the US dollar index, which typically supports commodity prices, gold did not respond positively, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may still have upward potential in the medium to long term due to several factors: 1. Continued geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, are expected to sustain safe-haven demand for gold [6]. 2. Anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could boost gold prices ahead of policy changes, as lower interest rates reduce the attractiveness of bond investments [6]. 3. Central banks in lower and middle-income countries are likely to increase their gold reserves, narrowing the gap with higher-income countries [6]. 4. The high deficit and debt levels in the US are projected to maintain upward pressure on long-term gold prices [6]. Tariff Negotiations - Progress in tariff negotiations has been reported, with EU leaders expressing optimism about reaching an agreement to avoid further economic damage. This development is seen as a factor that could influence market risk appetite and, consequently, gold prices [8][9].

Group 1 - Gold futures have dropped below $3,300 per ounce, marking the lowest point in over a month due to reduced safe-haven demand [1] - The easing geopolitical tensions and improved outlook, particularly following the Israel conflict and the US-China trade framework agreement, have provided investors with profit-taking opportunities [1] - The US inflation data exceeded expectations, with the May core PCE price index rising 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, which did not support gold prices [1] Group 2 - Gold mining stocks in the US experienced significant declines, with Kinross Gold (KGC.US) falling over 6%, Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (AEM.CA) and AngloGold Ashanti (AU.US) dropping over 5%, and Newmont Corporation (NEM.US) declining over 4% [2]

大连商场黄金饰品业种经理牛慧莲告诉记者，过高的价格使得黄金销售遇冷。而恰逢此时，铂金产地供 应紧张，再加上当下季节因素、价格上涨趋势以及部分品牌款式上新快且新颖，多种利好叠加，使得最 近一个月铂金销售情况很好。 据《证券时报》等媒体近日报道，在全国最大的黄金交易市场深圳水贝，不少档口纷纷缩小黄金销售铺 位，甚至直接撤掉黄金摊位，转而投身铂金销售。一时间，采购商云集，铂金饰品供不应求，某摊位铂 金饰品月销量从150-200公斤猛增至四五百公斤，小件饰品更是处于紧张状态。 从投资角度看，黄金与铂金价格走势具有一定的同步性。当黄金价格持续上涨并维持高位时，许多投资 者将目光投向其他贵金属。因铂金价格相对较低，成为投资者眼中的"价值洼地"，大量资金涌入，带动 大商金店一位销售人员告诉记者，铂金饰品在十几二十年前曾流行过一段时间，但因硬度不如K金且款 式相对单一而不温不火很多年，近期的突然大流行很难说不与黄金涨价有极大关系。 铂金价格还能再涨吗？ 其价格上涨，黄金投资领域观察员罗亮表示。 从供给端来看，全球超七成铂金产自南非，今年一季度其产量下降，导致供给紧张，进一步推动了铂金 价格上扬。值得注意的是，相比黄金、白银， ...

Group 1 - The international gold market experienced a significant drop, with both London gold and COMEX gold futures prices falling below $3300 per ounce, reaching a low of $3278.96 per ounce, marking a one-month low [1] - The decline in gold prices has led to a decrease in the prices of branded gold jewelry, creating a potential buying opportunity for consumers who were previously deterred by high prices [3][4] - Gold stocks have shown a weak performance following the drop in gold prices, leading to disappointment among investors who anticipated a rise in stock values alongside gold prices [3][4] Group 2 - The sudden drop in gold prices can be attributed to various factors, including fluctuations in the US dollar, geopolitical events, and changes in market supply and demand, which can lead to capital flowing out of the gold market [4] - The volatility in gold prices reflects the dynamic nature of the international financial market, where gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, but can be influenced by market sentiments [4][5] - The recent price fluctuations serve as a reminder for investors and consumers to stay informed about market trends and to make purchasing decisions based on personal needs rather than solely on price movements [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have been experiencing high volatility since June, with a recent decline of nearly 3%, but the underlying logic for a long-term bullish trend remains intact due to expectations of a shift towards monetary easing by global central banks and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][2][3] Market Analysis - As of June 26, the London gold price fluctuated around $3,333 per ounce, showing a recovery trend despite geopolitical tensions, indicating that the market is reassessing gold's value as a non-credit asset [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the recent drop in gold prices during the Iran conflict was influenced by rising oil prices, which diluted gold's safe-haven status [2] - The global political and economic restructuring is increasing uncertainty, making gold an important hedging tool, especially when geopolitical indices are high [2][3] Central Bank Activity - Central banks worldwide have been increasing their gold reserves, with the World Gold Council reporting that over 1,000 tons of gold have been accumulated annually in the past three years, significantly higher than the previous decade's average of 400-500 tons [4][5] - The European Central Bank noted that gold has surpassed the euro as the second-largest reserve asset globally, accounting for 21% of total reserves [4] Investment Trends - There is a growing interest in gold investment products, particularly gold ETFs, with total assets reaching 101.9 billion yuan, a 43% increase since the beginning of the year [6] - Despite some outflows in May, the demand for gold ETFs remains strong, with a notable increase in holdings and inflows compared to historical levels [6] - Investors are shifting their preferences towards stable value assets, such as high-dividend ETFs and gold, reflecting a cautious approach amid rising geopolitical risks [9] Price Outlook - Analysts expect gold prices to rise further due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar, with projections indicating that gold could reach new highs by 2025-2026 [3][5] - The current price range for gold is experiencing resistance around $3,400 to $3,500 per ounce, and further upward movement may require additional economic deterioration or geopolitical developments [7][8]

Group 1: Recent Market Dynamics - Gold prices have experienced significant volatility, with spot gold dropping below $3,300 per ounce to a new monthly low of $3,281, reflecting a weekly decline of over 3.5% due to easing tensions in the Middle East and market caution ahead of U.S. PCE inflation data [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices have breached a critical support level of $3,295, with potential further declines to the $3,250-$3,270 range, and if this support fails, prices could drop to $3,120 [1] Group 2: Controversy Over Safe-Haven Status - Experts suggest that gold may gradually replace U.S. Treasuries as the preferred safe-haven asset post-April 2025, particularly as U.S. debt credibility is questioned and global central banks continue to accumulate gold [2] - Despite ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts, gold prices have not risen but instead declined, partly due to market focus shifting away from geopolitical tensions [2] Group 3: Long-Term Investment Value - Gold is viewed as a hard currency that can be held long-term without risk of being trapped in losses, with historical examples showing profitability over a decade despite short-term fluctuations [3] Group 4: Central Bank Support - Global central bank net gold purchases are expected to reach a 56-year high in 2024, indicating strong institutional capital bets on long-term bullish trends for gold [4] Group 5: Investment Strategies - It is recommended that individuals allocate 5%-15% of liquid assets to gold, avoiding heavy positions to mitigate risks [5] - Preferred investment channels include bank gold bars with low processing fees and gold ETFs with strong liquidity and low fees, suitable for regular investment [6] - Channels to avoid include gold jewelry due to high premiums and paper gold or leveraged products due to high policy risks [7] Group 6: Timing and Operational Suggestions - Investors are advised to build positions gradually during dips, particularly around key support levels like $3,250 or during off-peak seasons [8] - Implementing a systematic investment approach by contributing a fixed amount monthly can help smooth out short-term volatility [9] - Setting strict stop-loss limits of 5%-8% is recommended to prevent significant losses [10] Group 7: Alternative Opportunities - Platinum and silver are highlighted as significant alternatives, with platinum experiencing a 60% increase this year, and both metals currently valued lower than gold [11] - A "new three gold" investment strategy combining gold ETFs, bond funds, and money market funds is suggested for young investors seeking a balance of stability and returns [12] Group 8: Market Divergence Perspectives - Bullish arguments for gold include the global debt crisis and the normalization of geopolitical conflicts, reinforcing gold's status as a ultimate safe-haven asset [14] - Bearish arguments cite delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and tightening dollar liquidity, with technical patterns suggesting a potential drop to $3,100 [14]

"我也没想到，铂金饰品克价一天就涨了十几块钱！"在深圳水贝从事铂金饰品生意的黄经理也感到意 外，"今天，铂金饰品的克价已经涨到342元"。 6月26日，现货铂金价格盘中跃升至2014年以来的最高水平，一度突破每盎司1400美元，盘中涨幅超过 3%。市场数据显示，今年以来现货铂金价格已经累计上涨近50%，远远超过现货黄金和白银的涨幅。 (受访者提供） 黄经理表示，作为首饰，铂金具有不变色等优势，除了素金款式还多用于镶嵌类首饰，但是因硬度不如 k金加之款式相对单一，在消费市场"失宠"多年。不过，对于铂金的价格，他认为回涨的空间还很大。 世界铂金投资协会的数据显示，今年第一季度全球铂金总供应量同比下降10%，为45.3吨；需求端同比 增长10%，达70.7吨；预计今年将连续第三年出现铂金短缺，缺口达30吨。此外，中国首次超越北美成 为全球最大规模的铂金零售端投资市场。值得注意的是，相比黄金、白银，铂族金属的工业用途更广 泛。有业内人士表示，铂金和黄金都被视为避险资产，受到相似的宏观经济和地缘政治因素的影响以及 大宗商品周期的影响。 BMO资本市场的大宗商品分析师在其第三季展望中表示，随着投资者已适应当前的金价水平， ...

Group 1 - The geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, has led to market fluctuations, but risk assets have rebounded after initial declines [1][2] - The VIX index, which measures market volatility, peaked at 22.17 during the conflict, significantly lower than the 52.33 recorded during previous trade tensions [2] - The conflict has resulted in a temporary ceasefire, with both Iran and Israel indicating a reduction in hostilities, which may stabilize market conditions [2] Group 2 - The "see-saw" effect between risk assets and safe-haven assets is evident, with U.S. stocks rebounding due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and easing geopolitical tensions, while gold and oil prices have retreated from highs [3] - As of June 23, the largest gold ETF, SPDR, held 957.4 tons of gold, approaching its previous high of 959.17 tons, indicating a gradual recovery in gold investment demand [3] - Historical trends suggest that U.S. stocks and the dollar may not move in tandem, with potential for both to decline simultaneously, challenging traditional market relationships [3][4] Group 3 - The current weak dollar may not benefit the U.S. economy as it has in the past, due to concerns over U.S. debt and trade policies, which could lead to capital outflows [4] - The weak dollar reflects market apprehension regarding U.S. fiscal policies, and without counteracting measures, it may accompany declines in U.S. stocks [4] Group 4 - Concerns over oversupply in the oil market are still present, but geopolitical tensions have caused temporary price spikes [5] - Iran's oil exports are currently at 1.6 million barrels per day, which has been factored into market pricing, limiting its impact on global supply [5] - Historical threats from Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz have not materialized due to practical constraints, suggesting that the oil market may stabilize despite geopolitical risks [5] Group 5 - The uncertainty in financial markets since the U.S. tariff increases in April has led to sustained support for gold prices, driven by ongoing geopolitical crises and a weakening dollar [6] - The lack of new catalysts for gold price increases, such as Federal Reserve rate cuts, may result in a period of high volatility without significant upward movement [6] - Investors are encouraged to utilize futures and options to hedge risks and capture opportunities in the gold market [6]