2025年已行至年中，港股市场在经历上半年"脉冲式反弹"后，下半年走势成为投资者关注焦点。 近日，中金公司、中信证券、国泰海通等多家券商机构发布了港股下半年策略报告，多家机构认为，港股将延 续震荡向上趋势，高股息资产、科技互联网、新消费等方向有望受青睐。 多重因素推动港股市场走强 回顾今年上半年港股市场行情，在DeepSeek引领中国资产重估叙事的大背景下，港股表现全球领先。不过， 受美国所谓的"对等关税"扰动，市场在反弹与回调中循环往复。 截至目前，恒生指数年内涨幅为20.45%，恒生科技指数的年内涨幅为20.68%。个股方面，恒生指数成份股中 的石药集团、周大福、翰森制药、小米集团、比亚迪股份、药明生物、网易等多股年内涨幅超过50%。 今年上半年，DeepSeek引发AI热潮助推中国资产重估，推动港股市场一度领涨全球，随后，由于部分中国科 技龙头股的资本开支计划不及预期，科技重估叙事有所降温。中金公司认为，后续需要更多催化剂，尤其是跨 越式的模型迭代或突破性的应用落地。中短期来看，AI趋势主要通过拉动资本开支推动私人部门信用扩张， 2025年AI相关新增资本开支预计约1500亿元。 中金公司表示，当前中国 ...

6月9日，A股主要指数高开高走，沪指盘中一度站上3400点，截至13点56分，A500ETF基金 （512050）涨0.21%，冲击四连涨，盘中成交额超24亿元位居同类前列。持仓股中，江淮汽车涨停，中 航沈飞、晨光股份、天孚通信、先导智能等纷纷走强。 每日经济新闻 华泰证券表示，中国资产重估的三大叙事仍在演绎，经过第一阶段修复，当前中证800前向PETTM 稳定在约19x、较MSCI新兴市场除中国已转为溢价约5%，背后是三点压制因素的缓解：1）Deepseek出 圈使全球投资者重估中国创新能力及在科技领域的全球竞争力；2）地产周期调整最快阶段或已度过， 一线城市价格已有企稳迹象；3）政策周期积极转向，民营经济、供需错配等问题有所应对；2025年下 半年，前述三点积极变化有望延续，人民币或对美元升值，全球资金"去美元化"大幕初启，广谱型估值 修复的第二阶段有望迎来，我们定量模型预计2025年末PETTM较当前上行空间约5%。 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） A股估值中枢上移，核心资产显著受益。资料显示，A500ETF基金（512050）跟踪中证A500指数， 采取行业均衡配置与龙头优选双策略，细分行业全覆盖，融合价值与 ...

Group 1 - Major overseas financial institutions, including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and HSBC, are optimistic about Chinese assets, highlighting their attractive valuation and potential for continued capital inflow [1][7] - The valuation advantage of Chinese assets is evident, with the A-share market's price-to-earnings ratio significantly lower than that of U.S. stocks, making it a "valuation pit" for global investors [2][4] - The overall return rate from investing in Chinese assets has outperformed that of U.S. dollar assets, with a reported cumulative return of +11.3% for the MSCI China Index compared to a -3.3% decline for a weighted U.S. stock and bond portfolio [4] Group 2 - The stability of the Renminbi is bolstered by the Chinese central bank's measures against capital outflow, which enhances the attractiveness of Renminbi-denominated assets [5][6] - A stable Renminbi exchange rate positively impacts corporate profitability and valuation, particularly for export-dependent companies, thereby boosting investor confidence and attracting foreign capital [6] - The Chinese stock market is expected to benefit from a stronger Renminbi and a weaker U.S. dollar, leading to increased capital inflow [7] Group 3 - The revaluation of Chinese assets is underway, with significant earnings growth in the technology sector, indicating potential for further valuation adjustments [8] - The China A500 Index ETF (563880) is highlighted as a strategic investment opportunity, reflecting economic trends and structural changes in the industry [9] - The China A500 Index ETF offers low management fees and a predictable income distribution mechanism, enhancing its appeal to investors [9]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of the U.S. debt crisis on global capital flows, particularly focusing on China and its economic recovery. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Weakening Dollar Credit**: The core issue of the U.S. debt crisis is the weakening of dollar credit, leading to changes in global capital flow patterns, with non-U.S. economies decreasing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries and increasing gold holdings [1][2][4] 2. **Inflation and Economic Resilience**: The U.S. has maintained economic resilience through increased transfer payments to households, which has exacerbated commodity inflation pressures and affected the credibility of the Federal Reserve [1][5] 3. **Impact on Non-U.S. Economies**: As capital flows out of the U.S., non-U.S. currencies are becoming stronger, providing these economies, including China, with greater policy space and resilience [1][7][8] 4. **China's Economic Outlook**: China is expected to benefit significantly from the U.S. debt crisis, with reduced export pressures and potential for unexpected growth in exports as global manufacturing cycles improve [3][10][12] 5. **Hong Kong Market Dynamics**: The Hong Kong stock market, being highly liquid, is anticipated to reflect asset price appreciation first due to foreign capital inflows, especially as Chinese companies list there to leverage foreign investment [11][18] 6. **Long-term Trends**: The U.S. faces a choice between inflation and recession, with a long-term trend indicating a weakening dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, which will alter previous capital flow patterns [4][7][15] 7. **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to focus on core assets in the Hong Kong market, large financial sectors, and the A-share market, as these areas are expected to benefit from the new capital flow dynamics [18] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Global Manufacturing Cycle**: The global manufacturing cycle is expected to improve, which will favor China's export growth, regardless of whether the U.S. pursues an inflationary or recessionary path [3][12][13] 2. **Capital Flow Reversal**: The reversal of capital flows is seen as a significant opportunity for China, as it will enhance the value of RMB assets and support economic recovery [10][16][17] 3. **Potential Risks**: If the U.S. fails to issue more Treasuries smoothly, it could lead to a global recession, but the long-term outlook suggests a persistent inflationary environment that will impact global capital markets [4][5][15]

近日，券商2025年中期策略会拉开序幕。就在6月4日，华泰证券、国泰海通证券两家头部券商同时在上海 举办中期策略会，吸引了大批投资者参加。 此外，包括中信证券、兴业证券、方正证券、野村东方国际证券、申万宏源证券在内，也将在近日召开或即将 召开中期策略会。 从目前出炉的券商下半年策略展望来看，券商普遍看好今年下半年的A股市场，认为中国资产的估值修复仍在 持续演绎，科技主线受到一致青睐。还有不少券商提到，依然看好港股下半年表现，港股科技或更受益于本轮 AI（人工智能）产业叙事。 何康指出，人民币升值与全球去美元化背景下，外资回流预期强化，其偏好或边际影响A股定价逻辑。指数权 重股以及基本面质地优良的公司或将获益，对应金融、消费、医药及各行业龙头。何康认为，下半年A股市场 多条投资主线可概括为：地产周期磨底后，被忽视的消费需求，被忽略的生产力提升，尤其是高科技领域的资 本开支，或将逐渐浮出水面。 国泰海通证券策略首席方奕在2025年中期权益资产投资策略中表示，中国股市"转型牛"的格局越来越清晰。 化解债务、提振需求与稳定资产价格的中国政策"三支箭"，"以投资者为本"的资本市场改革，以及新技术新消 费的商业机会涌现， ...

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes that a significant opportunity for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in China is approaching by 2025, marking a turning point for their growth [3]. - It identifies two major opportunities termed "national fortune-level" opportunities: the revaluation of Chinese assets and the intelligent transformation of Chinese industries [4]. Group 1 - The current era is characterized by a "winner-takes-all" dynamic, where only pioneers can seize the upcoming opportunities [7]. - The company is launching an AI practical training camp aimed at SMEs, providing them with the necessary knowledge, methodologies, resources, and connections to integrate DeepSeek into their core products and services [7][10]. - The company has developed the "Tianqi Policy Large Model," which has become a key service provider in the national network for policy identification, showcasing its capability in AI application [8]. Group 2 - The company collaborates with major AI research and service firms across China, enhancing its resource pool for supporting SMEs in their AI integration efforts [9]. - It positions itself as a pioneer in the AI transformation of Chinese industries, emphasizing its readiness to assist SMEs in adopting intelligent solutions [10]. - The article encourages collective action towards the intelligentization of SMEs and industries in China, urging stakeholders to act swiftly [11].

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes that a significant opportunity for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in China is approaching by 2025, marking a turning point for their growth [3]. - It identifies two major opportunities termed "national fortune-level" opportunities: the revaluation of Chinese assets and the intelligent transformation of Chinese industries [4]. Group 1 - The current era is characterized by a "winner-takes-all" dynamic, where only pioneers can seize the upcoming opportunities [7]. - The company is launching an AI practical training camp aimed at SMEs, providing them with the necessary knowledge, methodologies, resources, and connections to integrate DeepSeek into their core products and services [7][10]. - The company has developed the "Tianqi Policy Big Model," which has become a key service provider in the national network for policy search, showcasing its capability in AI application [8]. Group 2 - The company collaborates with major AI research and service firms across China, enhancing its resource pool for assisting SMEs in adopting DeepSeek solutions [9][10]. - The company positions itself as a pioneer in the AI transformation of Chinese industries, emphasizing its readiness to support SMEs in their intelligent transformation journey [10][11]. - An upcoming AI practical training camp is scheduled from July 18 to July 20, focusing on helping enterprises overcome growth challenges through AI applications [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the strategy meetings is a positive outlook for the A-share market in the second half of the year, with a focus on the ongoing valuation recovery of Chinese assets and a preference for technology sectors [1][2][3] - Analysts from Huatai Securities emphasize the importance of China's economic development strategy in response to prolonged trade conflicts, which is expected to enhance consumer income and spending [2][3] - The consensus among various securities firms is that the A-share market is likely to outperform overseas markets, driven by a "transformation bull" market characterized by policy measures aimed at stabilizing asset prices and boosting demand [3][4] Group 2 - The technology sector is highlighted as a key investment focus, with analysts suggesting a "barbell" strategy combining dividend and growth stocks, while also considering opportunities in the consumer sector [5][6] - Citic Securities identifies three long-term trends: the enhancement of China's independent technological capabilities, the European focus on self-reliance in defense and resources, and the acceleration of domestic demand through improved social security [6] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from the AI narrative, with analysts noting that the technology sector in Hong Kong is well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing industrial transformation driven by AI advancements [7][8]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a surge in technology company listings, with a focus on firms possessing core technologies and global leadership, transforming Hong Kong into a global technology capital hub [1] - The total market capitalization of the technology sector in Hong Kong has reached HKD 6.29 trillion, driven by the listing of high-quality technology companies from sectors such as renewable energy and AI [1] - There has been a notable increase in A-share companies listing in Hong Kong, with five companies already listed this year and around 40 more in the application process, covering industries like technology, consumption, renewable energy, and pharmaceuticals [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlights that the Hong Kong stock market has developed a complete and sophisticated financial system over its 200-year history, with significant weight in finance, real estate, technology, and consumption sectors [2] - The market is becoming a strategic location for global capital allocation towards Chinese technology assets, supported by favorable national policies and a continuous inflow of southbound funds, which have reached three-quarters of last year's total in the first four months of 2025 [2] - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), which includes 30 large-cap technology leaders with high R&D investment and good revenue growth, reflecting the overall performance of technology companies listed in Hong Kong [2]

王涵 品牌崛起。 投资方面，与AI相关的投资仍将持续。DeepSeek的出现，标志着国产大模型的能力已经达到一定水 准。对于企业来说，接下来的重点在于如何在基础大模型之上开发应用。中国在AI应用方面具有显著 优势——拥有大量工业应用场景和工程师人才，只要企业有需求，预计AI应用未来几年将呈爆发式增 长态势。 □ 中长期来看，迎来更多全球发展机遇的各类中国资产，都有向上系统性重估的机会。短期来看，消 费、科技、具有全球竞争力的制造产业等都可能是热点 □ 资本市场是全民分享经济和企业发展红利的重要渠道，从未来政策储备来看，资本市场越来越受重视 将是一个重要方向。要进一步做大投资端和资产端，持续稳定和活跃资本市场，同时，完善优胜劣汰和 价格发现的机制 ◎记者 刘怡鹤 近日，兴业证券首席经济学家王涵在"上证·首席讲坛"发表演讲并接受上海证券报记者专访。王涵表 示，中国资产确定性和安全性较高，对外资的吸引力正在增强。外资对中国资产的追逐将延续从港股、 外汇到中国境内资产的节奏。中国资产将迎来向上系统性重估的机遇。 全年经济将平稳增长 今年一季度的经济数据表现良好。对此，王涵认为有多方面原因：首先，一季度存在"抢出口"效 ...