Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The 2025 target set by Moutai establishes a stable growth baseline for the industry, with a focus on domestic consumption trends [2] - The overall performance of the liquor sector is currently weak, primarily due to base pressure and lack of significant demand recovery in the off-season [2] - The snack sector is experiencing strong growth, particularly in konjac products, which are expected to continue benefiting from high growth in the market [4] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a slight increase of +0.07%, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by -0.28% and the CSI 300 Index fell by -1.37% [23] - Notable sector performances include snacks (+7.17%), soft drinks (+6.48%), and beer (+3.56%), while white liquor experienced a decline of -0.71% [23] 2. Liquor Sector Insights - Moutai's 2024 revenue and net profit are projected at 170.90 billion and 86.23 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of +15.71% and +15.38% [2] - The liquor sector is expected to see valuation recovery driven by policy catalysts, with the current PE-TTM for the liquor index at 20X, which is relatively low compared to historical averages [2][14] 3. Beer and Beverage Sector Insights - The beer sector is showing signs of improvement with a +3.6% increase, driven by rising temperatures and upcoming peak season demand [3] - Qingdao Beer reported a revenue of 32.14 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of -5.49% year-on-year, while Chongqing Beer reported a revenue of 14.64 billion yuan, down -1.1% [3][15] 4. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The snack sector is leading in growth, particularly with konjac products, which have seen sales exceed 100 million yuan in March [4][16] - The overall consumer goods market is expected to benefit from domestic consumption growth amid trade tensions, with a focus on three investment themes: dining, overseas expansion, and dairy supply chain [4][16] 5. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the liquor sector include strong alpha leaders like Moutai and Shunxin Agriculture, as well as cyclical beta stocks like Luzhou Laojiao and Jiangsu Yanghe [21] - In the consumer goods sector, focus on dairy products and snack companies such as Yili, Mengniu, and Salted Fish [22]

中国银河证券：1-2月服装社零迎开门红 全年服装 内需消费或逐季环比改善 中国银河（601881）证券发布研报称，2025年1-2月全国社零总额83731亿元，同比增长4.0%。该行 认为2025全年服装内需消费将会呈现逐季度环比改善趋势。政府大力提振内需的政策方向上有望受益。 户外场景渗透，国产体育龙头在丰富品类，精细化管理上具有竞争优势。家纺消费场景修复，消费补贴 加持需求提振。聚焦拥有优质客户、国际化产能布局的优质纺织龙头企业。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 2025年1-2月服装社零开门红，看好政策加持下消费稳复苏 2025年1-2月全国社零总额83731亿元，同比增长4.0%。其中服装零售总额2624亿元，同比增长 3.3%，在年初以来天气偏暖以及春节时点提前、服装消费高基数的背景下，取得了稳健增长。对比 2024年Q4来看，服装零售在2024年11/12月份同比增速分别为-4.5%/-0.3%，冬季旺季销售偏弱，但在政 策加持下内需提振效果在25年1-2月已经有所显现。该行认为2025全年服装内需消费将会呈现逐季度环 比改善趋势，一方面消费政策持续发力，另一方面24年消费低基数和暖冬影响将会在202 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [21] Core Insights - The overall trade growth rate in China for the first two months of 2025 is weak, with a total import and export value of 6.54 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%. Adjusting for fewer working days, the growth rate is 1.7% [2][6] - The industrial producer price index (IPP) shows a year-on-year decline of 2.2% in February 2025, indicating ongoing pressure on industrial prices [3][7] - The consumer price index (CPI) also reflects a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% in February 2025, with food prices dropping significantly [9][10] Summary by Sections 1. Major Economic Data Analysis - **Import and Export Data**: In the first two months of 2025, China's total import and export value was 6.54 trillion RMB, with exports at 3.88 trillion RMB (up 3.4%) and imports at 2.66 trillion RMB (down 7.3%). In USD terms, the total was 909.37 billion USD, a decrease of 2.4% [6][3] - **Industrial Producer Price Index**: The IPP decreased by 2.2% year-on-year in February 2025, with production material prices down 2.5%. The average for January-February shows a similar decline [7][8] - **Consumer Price Index**: The CPI fell by 0.7% year-on-year in February 2025, with food prices down 3.3%. The average CPI for January-February shows a slight decline of 0.1% [9][10] 2. Economic Commentary - The weak trade growth and price indices indicate a slow recovery in the domestic macroeconomic environment. The report highlights the need for policies to stimulate domestic demand, particularly in consumer spending, to create a positive feedback loop for economic growth [3][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing the weak consumption pattern, which negatively impacts corporate profits and investment activities, thereby hindering overall economic recovery [3][16]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights positive signals from government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, with a focus on a 300 billion yuan subsidy for consumer goods [3][4] - The home furnishing sector is expected to benefit from these policies, with leading companies like Oppein Home and Sophia recommended for investment due to their high retail business ratios [3][4] - The paper industry is experiencing price differentiation, with cultural paper prices showing resilience despite overall weak demand [3][4] - Export data indicates a slight increase in overall exports, but home furnishing exports are under pressure due to high base effects and tariff impacts [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The light industry sector outperformed the market with a 1.34% increase, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.39% [5] - Key sectors such as home furnishing, paper, and packaging printing showed varied performance, with home furnishing up by 1.24% [5] 2. Paper Sector Tracking - Major raw material prices showed mixed trends, with domestic needle pulp averaging 5847 yuan/ton, down 1.6% week-on-week [12][23] - Finished paper prices varied, with corrugated paper at 2766 yuan/ton, down 0.7% week-on-week, while cultural paper prices remained relatively stable [25][31] 3. Home Furnishing Sector Tracking - Government policies are expected to stimulate the home furnishing market, with a projected increase in new residential supply in key cities [3][4] - Home furnishing exports faced challenges, with a 15.5% year-on-year decline in furniture exports for January-February 2025 [36] 4. Other Sector Tracking - The report notes fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude at $70.36 per barrel, down 4.29% week-on-week [42] - Polyethylene prices increased slightly to 7892 yuan/ton, while polypropylene prices decreased to 7306 yuan/ton [43][44]

分析师：蔡梦苑 此次政府工作报告重点突出了三条政策线索： 1、在总量方面展示出宏观政策更加积极有为的态度，突出了提质效，且根据形势变化动态调整政 策的特征。 2、应对当前经济面临的内外部压力和挑战，我国后续经济增长的三大"破局"方向：内需消费、科 技创新、改革开放。 登记编号： S0890521120001 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 投资要点 风险提示： 经济修复不及预期的风险，政策效果不及预期的风险，地缘风险，海外衰退风险，外 部政策不确定性风险。 事件： 3月5日，十四届全国人大三次会议在人民大会堂开幕，国务院总理李强作政府工作报告。 总量线索： 提质效，早发力，留后手 总量方面展示出宏观政策更加积极有为的态度。 为达成5%左右GDP目标，财政政策也进一步发 力，赤字率打破约束提升至4%，1.3万亿的超长期特别国债+5000亿特别国债（支持国有大型商业 银行补充资本），地方政府专项债4.4万亿，合计新增政府债务总规模11.86万亿元、比上年增加 2.9万亿元。 3、股市楼市债市线索：股市楼市有望延续企稳向好，债市也有望迎来阶段性修复。 A股方面，两会行情下大盘宽基、顺经济周期 ...