被誉为"中国证券教父"的管金生逝世，享年7 8岁 。 创办万国证券、被誉为"中国证券教父"的管金生逝世，享年78岁。 10月9日深夜，上海九颂山河股权投资基金管理有限公司（以下简称"九颂基金"）发布公告称，公司近日收到 公司实际控制人、执行董事管金生家属的通知，管金生因突发疾病抢救无效，不幸于2025年10月7日与世长 辞。 1995年4月，管金生因为" 327国债事件"辞职。1 995年5月19日，管金生以贪污和挪用公款罪，在海南被捕。 同月，国债期货市场被关闭。经此一役，万国证券元气大伤。199 6年7月16日，申银证券与万国证券合并为申 银万国证券公司。 1997年2月3日，上海第一中级人民法院判处管金生1 7年有期徒刑。20 03年，管金生获准保外就医，此后淡出 公众视野。 在中国A股激荡三十几年的历史中，管金生是一个绕不开的名字。他曾经是上海滩上叱咤风云的"证券教父"， 一手创办了新中国第一家证券公司——万国证券，却又因" 327国债事件"一夜之间从巅峰跌落谷底。 公开资料显示，管金生出生于194 7年，198 8年2月，管金生负责筹建上海第一家证券公司——万国证券，由上 海国际信托投资公司等10家 ...

1 0月9日深夜，九颂基金通过微信公众号发布公告，公司实际控制人、执行董事管金生先生因 突发疾病抢救无效，不幸于2 0 2 5年1 0月7日与世长辞。 业内将管金生与原君安证券的张国庆、原申银证券的阚治东，并称为中国证券市场的 " 中国证 券教父 " 。 1 9 9 2年1 2月，上海证券交易所（上证所）率先在中国启动国债期货交易。1 9 9 5年，因" 3 2 7 "国 债期货重大违规操作事件，国债期货于同年5月暂停交易。管金生也因该事件从万国证券辞 职，1 9 9 7年被判处有期徒刑1 7年。1 9 9 6年7月，申银与万国合并为申银万国证券公司。 2 0 1 5年6月，管金生在参加某论坛时直面" 3 2 7 "国债风波，他表示："我这一生吃亏，吃很大的 亏，就是没有放下自己内心的骄傲和清高。我如果当初可以克服自我，做自己不愿意做的事 情，不断的向交易所上级部门、再上一级部门奔走呼号，说不定真的能改变现实，能够扭转乾 坤。"管金生称，互联网时代改变了信息不对称，类似" 3 2 7 "国债风波的历史悲剧现在完全可以 避免。 2 0 1 6年， 6 9岁的管金生再次创业——成立上海九颂山河股权投资基金管理有限 ...

九颂基金进一步表示，公司全体员工向其致以崇高的敬意和衷心的感谢，对其逝世表示沉痛哀悼。此外，管金生逝世不会影响公司的正常运 作，目前公司各项生产经营活动均有序开展。 回顾中国资本市场激荡三十年，管金生是绕不开的名字，他曾一手创办新中国首家证券公司万国证券，与原君安证券的张国庆、原申银证券 的阚治东，并称为"中国证券教父"，却也因轰动一时的"327国债事件"辞职，被判处17年有期徒刑。在69岁再次创业，投身一级市场。 从寒门弟子到"中国证券教父" 公开资料显示，管金生1947年5月19日出生于江西省清江县一个偏僻的小山村，家境贫寒。 大佬归去，往事似像昨天。又一位中国证券市场的标志性人物离开。对于中国证券市场，他既是拓荒者，也是牺牲者。 10月9日深夜，上海九颂山河股权投资基金管理有限公司发布公告称，近日收到公司实际控制人、执行董事管金生先生家属的通知，管金生 先生因突发疾病抢救无效，不幸于2025年10月7日与世长辞。 公告中，九颂基金称，管金生作为中国证券行业的先驱，毕生致力于金融事业的创新与发展。 1988年，他创办万国证券，开创了中国证券市场的多个先河，被誉为"中国证券教父"。其深厚的专业素养与前瞻性视 ...

Core Viewpoint - The passing of Guan Jinsheng, a pioneer in the Chinese securities industry, is a significant loss for the financial sector, as he contributed greatly to the innovation and development of China's capital markets [1][2]. Group 1: Contributions to the Industry - Guan Jinsheng founded Wangguo Securities in 1988, which was the first securities company in Shanghai, and played a crucial role in establishing the Chinese securities market [3][4]. - Under his leadership, Wangguo Securities became a major player, handling over 60% of underwriting business in China and holding all domestic B-shares during its peak [4]. - He was instrumental in designing the trading rules and systems for the Shanghai Stock Exchange, promoting innovations such as paperless trading [3][4]. Group 2: Career Highlights - Guan Jinsheng's educational background included dual master's degrees in law and business administration, which was rare in China during the early 1980s [2][3]. - He emphasized hiring top talent from prestigious universities, with 90% of his team coming from institutions like Fudan University and Shanghai Jiao Tong University [3]. - His vision was to position Wangguo Securities as a Chinese equivalent of Merrill Lynch, aiming for international standards in the securities industry [4]. Group 3: Challenges and Downfall - The "327 bond incident" in 1995 marked a significant downturn for Guan Jinsheng and Wangguo Securities, leading to substantial financial losses and his eventual arrest [5][6][7]. - Following the incident, Guan Jinsheng faced legal consequences, receiving a 17-year prison sentence, which significantly impacted his career and reputation [7]. - After his release, he returned to the industry by founding Shanghai Jiusu Mountain River Equity Investment Fund Management Co., Ltd. in 2016, focusing on private equity and technology innovation [1][7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the stock market showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with an overall upward - trending oscillation. The three major indices all closed higher on the monthly line. The ChiNext Index rose by over 12% this month, reaching a new high in more than three years, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose by over 11%, hitting a new high in nearly four years. The domestic stock index futures market also oscillated upward as a whole. The market risk preference significantly recovered, and small - and medium - cap varieties outperformed the weighted contracts [5][25]. - From a macro perspective, the manufacturing PMI data in September continued to rise, indicating continuous improvement in the manufacturing prosperity level. The non - manufacturing business activity index was at the critical point, and the comprehensive PMI output index continued to be above the critical point, showing that the overall expansion of China's enterprise production and business activities continued to accelerate [7][9][12]. - Looking forward to the future, the continuous improvement of the economic fundamentals provides strong support for the market. The continuous rise in manufacturing prosperity has enhanced investors' confidence. It is recommended to maintain a neutral position and focus on the expected policy orientation. The market is expected to still show structural characteristics, but technical adjustment pressure should be vigilant [26]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: In September, the domestic stock index futures market oscillated upward. The IC showed strong performance. The monthly price increases of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 2.56% (115.4), 0.35% (10.4), 4.40% (307.0), and 0.71% (52.4) respectively [5]. - **Bond Futures**: In September, the 10 - year and 5 - year treasury bond futures rose, while the 30 - year and 2 - year treasury bond futures fell. The monthly price changes of the main contracts of 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures were - 2.28% (- 2.66), 0.02% (0.025), 0.11% (0.115), and - 0.05% (- 0.048) respectively [6]. b. Fundamental Analysis - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level continued to improve. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business volume was generally stable. The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of China's enterprise production and business activities continued to accelerate [7][9][12]. c. Valuation Analysis - As of September 30, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 14.22 times, the percentile was 87.65%, and the PB was 1.48 times. The PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.75 times, the percentile was 88.63%, and the PB was 1.28 times. The PE of the CSI 500 Index was 35.23 times, the percentile was 84.31%, and the PB was 2.34 times. The PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 47.98 times, the percentile was 76.27%, and the PB was 2.54 times [13]. - As of September 30, the dividend yield of the Shanghai Composite Index was 2.48%, corresponding to a price - earnings ratio of 16.6 times; the dividend yield of the Hang Seng Index was 2.24%, corresponding to a price - earnings ratio of 12.3 times; the dividend yield of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index was only 0.56%, corresponding to a price - earnings ratio of 32 times; the dividend yield of the Nasdaq Index was 0.3%, corresponding to a price - earnings ratio of 44 times [26]. d. Other Data - As of September 30, 2025, the quantile of the current "total market value/GDP" in historical data was 88.27%, and the quantile in the latest 10 - year data was 88.47% - 92.26% [24]. e. Comprehensive Analysis - The stock index futures market showed an upward - trending oscillation pattern in September, with small - and medium - cap varieties outperforming the weighted contracts, and the market risk preference significantly recovered. The improvement in manufacturing prosperity, especially in key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, and consumer goods, provided fundamental support for the stock index, especially small - and medium - cap varieties. The improvement in the business climate of small enterprises also enhanced market confidence in the quality of economic recovery. The non - manufacturing business activity index was at the critical point, which was in line with the current market's structural market [25]. f. Operation Suggestions - **Unilateral**: Buy on dips, but beware of valuation risks. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to cross - variety spread opportunities and note style - switching signals. - **Options**: Use covered call writing to increase returns or buy put options to hedge against volatility risks [27]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and overall reference view for TL2512 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the long - and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The 9 - month manufacturing PMI continued to improve, but the price index was still weak, indicating potential concerns in the macro - demand side. Future monetary policy is still inclined to be loose, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has greatly decreased, and the rising risk preference in the stock market has suppressed the demand for treasury bonds. So, in the short term, the upward momentum and downward space of treasury bond futures are both limited, and they are expected to oscillate at a low level [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Section 1: Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is the long - and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts and the low short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut [1]. Section 2: Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The improvement of the manufacturing PMI in September and the weak price index show macro - demand concerns. Future monetary policy support and short - term factors like the low possibility of interest rate cuts and stock - market influence lead to the expected low - level oscillation of treasury bond futures [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In Q3, the prices of treasury bond futures contracts declined overall, and the yields of treasury bond cash bonds fluctuated upward. The yield curve showed a bearish steepening trend. The Chinese economy in August was generally below market expectations, and there is a significant downward pressure on the year - on - year economic growth rate in Q4 due to the high base of the previous year. The central bank may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in Q4, and it is advisable to consider a strategy of buying treasury bond futures at low prices and conducting band operations [8][10][78] Summary by Directory 1. Disk Review - **Treasury Bond Futures Active Contract Trends**: In July and August, the strong continuous rise of the A - share market pushed up the risk appetite in the capital market, causing the prices of treasury bond futures contracts to decline overall. In September, the medium - and short - term varieties of the main treasury bond futures contracts fluctuated widely, while the main contract of the ultra - long - term 30 - year treasury bond futures continued to decline significantly [8] - **Treasury Bond Cash Bond Yield Trends**: The yield of treasury bond cash bonds hit a low in early January, over - anticipating the whole - year interest rate cut. After the central bank tightened the money market liquidity in January, the yield of treasury bonds rose in Q1. It slightly declined in late March and then quickly dropped in early April due to the US tariff increase news. Since July, the continuous rise of the stock index has pushed up the overall yield of treasury bonds. In Q3, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds fluctuated between 1.60% - 1.90% and ended at a relatively high level [10] - **Changes in the Treasury Bond Cash Bond Yield Curve**: Compared with June 30, the treasury bond cash bond yield curve on September 29 showed a bearish steepening trend, with the short - end rising less and the long - end rising more. The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 15, 13, 24, and 38 basis points respectively [13] 2. Current Analysis - **Investment Data**: From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of national fixed - asset investment was 0.5%, lower than the market expectation of 1.3%. The growth rates of various types of investment, such as infrastructure and manufacturing, all declined compared with the previous period, and real estate development investment continued to decline [18] - **Real Estate Market**: From January to August, the sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased year - on - year, and the decline accelerated in August. The year - on - year growth of the average daily trading volume of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in September was due to the low base of the previous year, and the year - on - year data in Q4 will face challenges [20][23] - **Consumption Data**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3.4%, lower than the market expectation of 3.8%. The growth rate of the national service production index was 5.6%, and the growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods from January to August was 4.6%, with the growth rate dropping by 0.2 percentage points compared with January to July [25][27] - **Industrial Data**: In August, the year - on - year actual growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries was 5.2%, lower than the market expectation of 5.8%. The year - on - year growth rates of exports and imports in August were 4.4% and 1.3% respectively, with the trade surplus increasing [30][32] - **Employment Data**: In August, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the unemployment rates of different groups showed different trends [35] - **Financial Data**: In August, the increase in the scale of social financing was 2.57 trillion yuan, and the increase in RMB loans was 5.9 trillion yuan. At the end of August, the year - on - year growth rates of M2 and M1 were 8.8% and 6% respectively [37][41] - **Price Data**: In August, CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year. In September, the agricultural product wholesale price continued to rise, the South China Industrial Products Index fluctuated narrowly, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fluctuated slightly [44][50][55] - **Overseas Data**: In September, the US treasury bond interest rate rebounded slightly after reaching a low point. The core CPI in the US in August increased by 3.1% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice in October and December [57][60][64] - **Other Data**: In Q3, the yield of AAA 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit increased slightly, the net financing of government bonds continued at a fast pace, and the term spreads of treasury bonds widened [65][68][72] 3. Strategy Recommendations - The Chinese economy in August was generally below market expectations. There is a significant downward pressure on the year - on - year economic growth rate in Q4 due to the high base of the previous year. The central bank may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in Q4. If the intensity of counter - cyclical policies in Q4 is weaker than market expectations, the yield of treasury bonds is likely to decline, and it is advisable to consider a strategy of buying treasury bond futures at low prices and conducting band operations [78]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2512 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The overall view is "oscillation" due to the existence of long - term interest rate cut expectations but a low possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) in the financial futures stock index sector, the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The short - term upward momentum and downward space are both limited, and it is expected to be in low - level oscillation and consolidation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **TL2512**: Short - term: oscillation; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation with a weak bias; Overall view: oscillation. Core logic: There are still long - term interest rate cut expectations, but the possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". - **Core Logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated and declined slightly yesterday. The central bank's third - quarter regular meeting signaled flexible monetary policy, reducing the possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts. However, due to weak economic data in August and the Fed's interest rate cut in September, which reduced RMB exchange - rate pressure, there is a high possibility of loose monetary policy in the future, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. So, in the short term, it is expected to be in low - level oscillation and consolidation [5].

国债期货日报 2025/9/29 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 端在期货 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 85459 | 107.660 | -0.01% T主力成交量 | | 3714↑ | | | 68631 TF主力收盘价 | 105.485 | -0.04% TF主力成交量 | | 8400↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.326 | -0.02% TS主力成交量 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity environment in China has shifted from tight to loose, with the central bank conducting significant reverse repos to support the market, indicating a proactive stance on maintaining liquidity during the quarter-end period [1][12]. Market Overview - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields reaching 1.83% and 2.14% respectively, before retreating as equity markets adjusted [1]. - The central bank's actions included a total of 900 billion yuan in 14-day reverse repos and maintaining MLF operations, reflecting a clear intention to support liquidity [1][12]. Bond Yield Changes - As of September 26, 2025, the yields on various maturities showed mixed movements compared to September 19, with the 1-year yield decreasing by 0.75 basis points and the 30-year yield increasing by 1.74 basis points [2][3]. - The 10-year government bond yield saw a slight decrease of 0.21 basis points, while the 30-year yield increased by 3 basis points over the same period [2][3]. Primary Market Activity - In the primary market, a total of 102 bonds were issued, amounting to 579.73 billion yuan, including 3 government bonds worth 247.53 billion yuan and 78 local government bonds totaling 196.05 billion yuan [7]. - Upcoming issuance plans for the week of September 28 to September 30 include 33 bonds, all of which are local government bonds, totaling 107.15 billion yuan [8]. International Market Context - The U.S. bond market saw yields rise, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 5 basis points to 4.18%, reflecting ongoing discussions among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate adjustments [9][10]. - The divergence in opinions among Federal Reserve officials regarding the path of interest rate cuts indicates a complex outlook for global monetary policy, which may impact investor sentiment in the bond markets [9][10][11]. Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for a supportive monetary policy stance to ensure liquidity and stabilize the financial market, while also addressing the challenges of domestic demand and low inflation [13][17]. - The central bank's commitment to maintaining a stable yuan exchange rate and enhancing the resilience of the foreign exchange market was highlighted as a key focus area [1][17]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts from Tianfeng Securities and Caitong Securities noted that the current monetary policy reflects a balance between stability and flexibility, with expectations of controlled liquidity pressure in the upcoming month [18][19]. - The overall sentiment in the bond market remains cautious, with suggestions for investors to adopt strategies focused on short-term bonds and high-quality credit instruments [19].