Core Viewpoint - The early trading of government bond futures shows positive movements across various maturities, indicating a potential bullish sentiment in the bond market [1] Group 1: Bond Futures Performance - The 2-year government bond futures (TS) main contract increased by 0.01% [1] - The 5-year government bond futures (TF) main contract rose by 0.03% [1] - The 10-year government bond futures (T) main contract also saw an increase of 0.03% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures (TL) main contract experienced a rise of 0.05% [1]

国债期货日报 2025/7/2 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 端在期货 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 57955 | 109.130 | 0.14% T主力成交量 | | 1131↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 45931 | 106.250 | 0.07% TF主力成交量 | | 1382↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.512 | 0.03% TS主力成交量 | 24944 | 34↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 121.180 | 0.4% TL主力成交量 ...

Report Information - Report Date: July 2, 2025 [2] - Report Title: Big - Asset Morning Report [9] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - As of July 1, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.243%, 4.453%, 3.250% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.035% (UK) to 0.052% (Japan), weekly changes from - 0.119% (Brazil) to 0.063% (Germany), monthly changes from - 0.213% (US) to 0.183% (Switzerland), and annual changes from - 0.961% (Japan) to 0.371% (UK) [3] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 1, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.730%, 3.821%, 1.844% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.013% (Germany) to 0.030% (US), weekly changes from - 0.170% (US) to 0.026% (South Korea), monthly changes from - 0.230% (US) to 0.063% (Germany), and annual changes from - 1.424% (Italy) to 0.438% (Japan) [3] US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - As of July 1, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, etc. were 5.459, 108.000 respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.65% (South African rand) to 0.50% (Brazilian real), weekly changes from - 1.20% (Malaysian ringgit) to 0.00% (Russian ruble), monthly changes from - 3.19% (Brazilian real) to 0.00% (Russian ruble), and annual changes from - 11.54% (Thai baht) to 0.49% (Brazilian real) [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On July 1, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, etc. were 6198.010, 44494.940 respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 1.24% (Nikkei) to 1.88% (Thai index), weekly changes from - 0.45% (South Korean index) to 3.26% (Dow Jones), monthly changes from - 1.84% (Indian index) to 6.78% (Nikkei), and annual changes from - 15.03% (Thai index) to 33.52% (Hang Seng Index) [3] Credit Bond Indices - As of July 1, 2025, the US investment - grade corporate bond index, euro - area investment - grade corporate bond index, etc. were 3428.740, 263.071 respectively. The latest changes ranged from 0.04% (euro - area high - yield corporate bond index) to 0.28% (emerging - market high - yield corporate bond index), weekly changes from - 0.01% (euro - area high - yield corporate bond index) to 0.95% (emerging - market high - yield corporate bond index), monthly changes from 0.33% (euro - area high - yield corporate bond index) to 2.22% (emerging - market high - yield corporate bond index), and annual changes from 6.12% (euro - area investment - grade corporate bond index) to 14.36% (emerging - market high - yield corporate bond index) [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, etc. were 3457.75, 3942.76 respectively. The daily changes were 0.39% (A - shares), 0.17% (CSI 300), etc. [5] Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 13.12, 11.26 respectively. The环比 changes were 0.05 (CSI 300), 0.05 (SSE 50), etc. [5] Risk Premium - The risk premiums of CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3.70, 5.77 respectively. The环比 changes were 0.00 (CSI 300), 0.00 (SSE 50), etc. [5] Fund Flows - The latest values of A - shares, main board, etc. were - 746.29, - 399.28 respectively. The 5 - day average values were - 280.06 (A - shares), - 209.33 (main board), etc. [5] Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 14660.15, 2360.70 respectively. The环比 changes were - 208.42 (Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets), - 527.51 (CSI 300), etc. [5] Main Contract Premiums or Discounts - The basis of IF, IH, IC were - 56.76, - 27.91, - 66.67 respectively. The magnitudes were - 1.44% (IF), - 1.03% (IH), - 1.12% (IC) [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, etc. were 109.005, 106.205 respectively. The daily changes were - 0.14% (T00), - 0.10% (TF00), etc. [6] - The funding rates of R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4493%, 1.6175%, 1.6280% respectively. The daily changes were - 56.00 (R001), - 39.00 (R007), 0.00 (SHIBOR - 3M) [6]

Core Viewpoint - The early trading of government bond futures shows stability in the 2-year contract, while the longer-term contracts exhibit slight increases, indicating a mixed sentiment in the bond market [1] Group 1: Government Bond Futures Performance - The 2-year government bond futures (TS) main contract remains flat [1] - The 5-year government bond futures (TF) main contract rises by 0.02% [1] - The 10-year government bond futures (T) main contract also increases by 0.02% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures (TL) main contract sees a rise of 0.04% [1]

| 重点关注 | 7月01日 16:00 欧元区6月制造业PMI终值 7月01日 22:00 美国6月ISM制造业PMI 7月02日 20:15 美国6月ADP就业人数(万人) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 | | | | | 研究员： | | 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 | 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 | 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 6 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 宏观经济指标偏弱，货币宽松预 期升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：上周五国债期货均震荡小幅反弹。近期央行在公开市场净投放流动性，市场流动性边际宽 松。回顾方面，5 月信贷、通胀数据表现偏弱，政策托底需要偏宽松的货币 ...

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约涨0.02%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约涨0.03%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.09%。 国债期货早盘开盘 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, and the overall view is to oscillate, with the core logic being weak macro - economic indicators and rising expectations of monetary easing [1] - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the overall view is to oscillate. The core logic is that the downside risk of treasury bond futures has eased, and there is strong support below. The medium - and long - term upward logic is solid, but short - term driving force is limited, so they will mainly oscillate in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term (within one week) view is oscillation, the medium - term (two weeks to one month) view is oscillation, the intraday view is oscillation with a strong bias, and the overall view is oscillation. The core logic is that macro - economic indicators are weak and expectations of monetary easing are rising [1] Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is oscillation with a strong bias, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the overall view is oscillation. Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated. Recently, overseas geopolitical factors have cooled, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the downside risk of treasury bonds has eased in the short term. Coupled with the central bank's net injection of liquidity in the open market, there is strong support below treasury bond futures. In terms of monetary policy expectations, May's credit and inflation data were weak, requiring a loose monetary environment for policy support, so the medium - and long - term upward logic of treasury bond futures is solid. However, subsequent policies need guidance from the important meeting in July, and short - term driving force is expected to be limited [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has been continuously adjusting this week, significantly affected by the stock - bond seesaw. With the current interest rates remaining at a low level, profit - taking pressure has pushed interest rates slightly higher. The market's trading focus is unclear due to uncertain policy impacts in the second half of the year. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize before making band - based allocations [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价108.950，down 0.02%，成交量52163，down 1100；TF主力收盘价106.170，unchanged，成交量38895，down 930；TS主力收盘价102.510，unchanged，成交量24312，down 514；TL主力收盘价120.720，up 0.1%，成交量72122，down 2020 [2] 3.2 Futures Spread - TL2512 - 2509价差 - 0.16，down 0.01；T2512 - 2509价差0.03，up 0.02；TF2512 - 2509价差0.07，down 0.02；TS2512 - 2509价差0.13，down 0.00；T09 - TL09价差 - 11.77，down 0.09；TF09 - T09价差 - 2.78，up 0.03；TS09 - T09价差 - 6.44，up 0.04；TS09 - TF09价差 - 3.66，up 0.02 [2] 3.3 Futures Position - T主力持仓量202431，down 2650；T前20名多头191730，down 1983；T前20名空头206973，down 1544；T前20名净空仓15243，up 439；TF主力持仓量160108，down 1028；TF前20名多头147895，down 599；TF前20名空头170948，down 264；TF前20名净空仓23053，up 335；TS主力持仓量118869，up 621；TS前20名多头88068，up 211；TS前20名空头106959，up 919；TS前20名净空仓18891，up 708；TL主力持仓量115275，up 622；TL前20名多头109182，up 984；TL前20名空头116993，up 1959；TL前20名净空仓7811，up 975 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 250007.IB(6y）101.299，up 0.0155；2500802.IB(6y）99.0955，up 0.0001；240020.IB(4y)101.0633，down 0.0215；240020.IB(4y)100.8844，down 0.0667；250006.IB(1.7y)100.3688，up 0.0158；240010.IB(2y)100.8301，up 0.0069；210005.IB(17y)136.4191，down 0.5585；210014.IB(18y)132.6415，down 0.2480 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y yield 1.3650%，up 0.50bp；3y yield 1.4050%，down 0.25bp；5y yield 1.4950%，up 0.50bp；7y yield 1.5900%，up 1.00bp；10y yield 1.6535%，up 0.75bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight rate 1.3788%，down 4.12bp；Shibor overnight rate 1.3700%，down 0.10bp；Silver - pledged 7 - day rate 1.6668%，down 2.32bp；Shibor 7 - day rate 1.6700%，down 0.10bp；Silver - pledged 14 - day rate 1.7300%，down 2.00bp；Shibor 14 - day rate 1.7360%，up 1.40bp [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - 1y LPR 3.00%，unchanged；5y LPR 3.5%，unchanged [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - Issuance scale 5093 billion yuan，maturity scale 2035 billion yuan，interest rate 1.4% for 7 - day，net investment 3058 billion yuan [2] 3.9 Industry News - Six departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", proposing 19 key measures in six aspects；The central bank conducted a 3000 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation on June 25；The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds in July and formulate a monthly and weekly national subsidy fund usage plan [2] 3.10 Key Data to Focus On - On June 26 at 20:30, pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending June 21 and the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the US in Q1；On June 27 at 20:30, focus on the annual rate of the US core PCE price index in May；On June 27 at 22:00, focus on the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the US in June [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 宏观经济指标偏弱，货币宽松预 期升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理。消息面，近期央行在公开市场净投放流动性，以应对半年末流 动性紧张的局面，维持流动性平稳。中长期来看，未来降息预期较强，国债期 ...