Core Insights - The 2026 "National Subsidy" policy will continue the "old-for-new" consumption initiative with an increased budget of 500 billion yuan, aimed at stimulating consumption and stabilizing economic growth [1][3][16] Group 1: Policy Overview - The "National Subsidy" policy has shown significant results since its launch in 2024, generating over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales and benefiting 360 million people [3] - The policy will focus on three main upgrades: increasing the subsidy amount, expanding coverage to new sectors, and optimizing the distribution process [4][10] Group 2: Sectoral Impacts - Traditional consumption sectors like home appliances and automobiles are expected to see a second wave of growth, with home appliance subsidies potentially increasing from 12.84 million units to 15 million units [6][8] - The service consumption sector, particularly in tourism and health, is anticipated to become a new focal point, with over 100 billion yuan in tourism vouchers expected to be issued [6][10] - Digital and green consumption will be enhanced, with subsidies for smartphones and energy-efficient appliances, benefiting companies like Apple and Huawei [8][10] Group 3: Economic Implications - The policy aims to boost domestic demand and counter economic pressures, with expectations for retail sales growth to rebound to 5%-6% in 2026 [10] - It promotes industrial upgrades by leading consumption upgrades, encouraging innovation in sectors like electric vehicles and smart home appliances [10][14] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Key investment targets include essential consumer goods like dairy products and condiments, as well as discretionary items like home appliances and new energy vehicles [15] - The policy is seen as a long-term opportunity for investors, with potential for valuation recovery and growth in the consumer sector [16]

商务部数据显示，今年1~11月，消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及超3.6亿人次。 其中，汽车以旧换新超1120万辆，家电以旧换新超12844万台，手机等数码产品购新补贴超9015万件， 电动自行车以旧换新超1291万辆，家装厨卫"焕新"超1.2亿件。 多位接受第一财经采访的专家表示，2026年"国补"额度可能在2025年基础上适度增加，并继续优化资金 投向领域，增加服务消费等，以进一步发挥财政资金带动消费，带动产业转型升级、提振经济。 （文章来源：第一财经） 所谓"两新"政策，是指大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策。其中与老百姓利益直接相关的消费品以 旧换新政策又备受关注，被称为"国补"。此次会议明确2026年优化"两新"政策实施，意味着明年会继续 实施国补政策，但具体政策会有所优化。 为了促进消费，中国在2024年发行了1500亿元超长期特别国债资金用于消费品以旧换新，也就是老百姓 口中的"国补"。由于当年实施效果不错，2025年中国发行3000亿元超长期特别国债资金用于消费品以旧 换新，"国补"额度较2024年增长一倍。 "国补"政策也在不断优化。2025年"国补"领域在2024年基础 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outcomes of the Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, which outlines China's economic work for 2026, emphasizing the continuation and optimization of the "two new" policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption and market strength [3]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The "two new" policies refer to large-scale equipment updates and the consumer goods trade-in program, which is particularly relevant to the public as it is known as the "national subsidy" [3]. - The conference confirmed that the "national subsidy" policy will continue in 2026, with specific optimizations to be made [3]. - In 2024, China issued 150 billion yuan in long-term special bonds for the consumer goods trade-in program, which will increase to 300 billion yuan in 2025, doubling the subsidy amount from 2024 [3]. Group 2: Impact on Consumption - From January to November this year, the consumer goods trade-in program has driven sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [4]. - The program included the trade-in of over 11.2 million vehicles, more than 12.8 million home appliances, and over 9 million digital products [4]. - Experts suggest that the subsidy amount for 2026 may see a moderate increase from 2025, with a focus on optimizing funding allocation to enhance service consumption and further stimulate economic growth [5].

多位接受第一财经采访的专家表示，2026年"国补"额度可在2025年基础上适度增加，并继续优化资金投 向领域，增加服务消费等，以进一步发挥财政资金带动消费，带动产业转型升级、提振经济。 为了促进消费，中国在2024年发行了1500亿元超长期特别国债资金用于消费品以旧换新，也就是老百姓 口中的"国补"。由于当年实施效果不错，2025年中国发行3000亿元超长期特别国债资金用于消费品以旧 换新，"国补"额度较2024年增长一倍。 "国补"政策也在不断优化。2025年"国补"领域在2024年基础上扩围，比如新增了手机、平板、智能手表 手环等3类数码产品和微波炉、净水器、洗碗机、电饭煲等4类家电产品等。 商务部数据显示，今年1~11月，消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及超3.6亿人次。 其中，汽车以旧换新超1120万辆，家电以旧换新超12844万台，手机等数码产品购新补贴超9015万件， 电动自行车以旧换新超1291万辆，家装厨卫"焕新"超1.2亿件。 中央经济工作会议提出明年要优化"两新"政策实施 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。此次会议部署2026年经济工作，其中在部署明年"坚 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuation of the "National Subsidy" policy for consumer goods trade-in is highly anticipated, with suggestions to increase the funding from 300 billion to 500 billion yuan to further stimulate consumption and support economic transformation [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Implementation and Impact - The Chinese government plans to issue 150 billion yuan in special long-term bonds for consumer goods trade-in in 2024, with the subsidy amount increasing to 300 billion yuan in 2025, ensuring balanced fund distribution throughout the year [1]. - The "National Subsidy" policy has significantly benefited consumers and boosted sales of related products, with over 25 trillion yuan in sales generated from trade-ins, impacting more than 360 million people [1]. - The policy has led to substantial trade-in figures, including over 11.2 million cars, 12.8 million home appliances, and 9 million digital products [1]. Group 2: Future Expectations and Recommendations - Experts suggest that the funding for the trade-in policy should be increased to 500 billion yuan in 2026 to further stimulate domestic demand [3]. - There is a recommendation to shift the focus of subsidies from goods to service consumption, and to consider cash subsidies and digital currency as part of the support measures [3][4]. - The current effectiveness of the "National Subsidy" policy is declining due to previous demand being pulled forward and the need for improved supporting policies [3]. Group 3: Economic Context and Consumer Behavior - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.3% year-on-year in the first ten months of this year, indicating a faster growth rate compared to the previous year [5]. - The recent guidelines from the Central Committee emphasize the need to enhance consumer spending and address the challenges of insufficient effective demand [5]. - The ongoing implementation of the "National Subsidy" policy has led to a noticeable increase in the consumption growth rate, although there are concerns about a potential decline in growth rates in the latter half of 2025 due to diminishing policy effects [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The continuation of the "National Subsidy" policy for consumer goods in 2024 is strongly recommended by experts, with suggestions to increase the funding from 300 billion to 500 billion yuan to further stimulate consumption and support economic growth [1][3][4]. Group 1: National Subsidy Policy - The "National Subsidy" for replacing old consumer goods is set to end this year, and experts advocate for its continuation next year, potentially increasing the budget to 500 billion yuan [1][3]. - In 2024, 150 billion yuan of special long-term bonds will be issued to support the "National Subsidy" program, with the amount increasing to 300 billion yuan in 2025 [1]. - The Ministry of Finance allocated 69 billion yuan for the fourth quarter of this year as part of the "National Subsidy" funding [1]. Group 2: Impact on Consumer Behavior - From January to November this year, the "National Subsidy" program has driven sales of related products exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [2]. - The program has led to significant sales in various categories, including over 11.2 million cars and over 12.8 million home appliances being replaced [2]. - Due to high consumer enthusiasm, the subsidy funds have been rapidly consumed, with at least 20 cities suspending or adjusting their subsidy applications [2]. Group 3: Future Recommendations - Experts suggest that the funding for the "National Subsidy" should be increased to 800 billion yuan in 2025 to address ongoing consumer demand [3]. - Recommendations include shifting the focus of subsidies from goods to service consumption and introducing cash and digital currency subsidies [3][4]. - The current economic environment indicates a need for continued support for consumer spending to avoid a significant decline in retail sales growth [4][5].

近日，第四批国补资金690亿元已下达地方，国补实施机制持续完善，补贴发放方式持续优化，看好国 补政策对全年下游需求的催化作用。国补资金已全面下达，实施机制持续完善，资金监管与拨付效率提 升，看好政策对下游消费需求持续催化作用。 智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，国补资金已全面下达，看好政策对下游消费需求持续催 化作用。数据显示，家具类消费已呈现回暖态势，10月零售额同比增长9.6%，1-10月累计增长19.9%； 包装行业方面，下游需求整体平稳，原材料价格小幅波动，产业升级步伐加快；轻工消费领域，头部IP 持续推新，如泡泡玛特新品系列陆续上市，推动玩具板块保持高成长性。投资上建议关注受益国补政策 的家居龙头、包装资源整合企业及具备IP推新能力的玩具公司。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 地产数据仍然承压，看好国补回归对下游需求拉动作用 2025年1-10月，我国商品房累计销售面积达71982.00万平方米，同比-6.8%；累计销售额达69017.06亿 元，同比-9.6%。房屋新开工面积累计值达49061.39万平方米，同比-19.8%；房屋竣工面积累计值达 34861.00万平方米，同比-16.9%。 ...

Summary of Haier Smart Home Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Haier Smart Home - **Date**: October 2025 Key Points Industry Performance - In October, Haier Smart Home achieved growth in both domestic and international markets, with performance skewed towards the left of the median, indicating resilience compared to the overall industry [2][4] - The company reported a double-digit growth in Q3 2025, while the industry faced a double-digit decline [3] Domestic Market Insights - The domestic market showed strong resilience, outperforming the overall industry, with significant revenue and profit growth driven by improved product, channel, and marketing efficiencies [3][4] - Key product categories such as air conditioners and water products performed better than washing machines [4] Strategic Initiatives - To counter the high base effect from the 2024 national subsidy policy, Haier Smart Home enhanced product competitiveness and implemented digital inventory reforms to improve overall efficiency [2][4] - The company is focusing on product structure optimization and iterative upgrades to maintain competitiveness amid subsidy reductions [7][8] Pricing Strategy - The company is managing pricing strategies by considering market competition and avoiding vicious price competition, ensuring profit margins are protected [2][9] - Despite an increase in average prices due to national subsidy impacts, the company has implemented self-supplement measures within strict profit assessment limits [6][8] Future Expectations - For 2026, the company anticipates the continuation of national subsidy policies, albeit with potential changes in amount and scope. The company aims to maintain a double-digit growth target regardless of subsidy status [10][11] - The company is optimistic about achieving higher-end revenue growth and maintaining double-digit profit growth in 2026 [11] Export Performance - In October, exports to emerging markets outperformed those to developed countries, indicating a positive outlook for future growth [12] Macro-Economic Considerations - Despite uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment, including domestic policies and geopolitical factors, the company plans to seize growth opportunities by enhancing efficiency and market share [13] Overall Confidence - The company expresses confidence in its performance planning for 2026, focusing on both domestic and international market strategies to improve profitability and market presence [13]

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：韩星雨 邮箱：hanxingyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050001 证券分析师：陆偲聪 邮箱：lusicong@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050002 家电行业 2025Q3 基金重仓分析 重仓家电比例下降，家电上游及清洁电器获 推荐（维持） 增配 行业研究 家电 2025 年 11 月 18 日 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 80 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 20,320.65 | 1.67 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 18,146.56 | 1.85 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 5.4% | 8.0% | 9.9% | | 相对表现 | 3.4% | -9.4% | -4.7% | -11% -2% 8% 18% 24/11 25/01 25/04 25/06 25/09 25/11 2024-11-18~2025-11 ...

Core Insights - JD Group reported Q3 2025 revenue of 299.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, with net profit at 5.3 billion RMB, down from 11.7 billion RMB in the same period last year [1] - New business segments, including food delivery, saw a revenue increase of 214% year-on-year, while service revenue grew by 30.8%, reaching a historical high of 24.4% of total revenue [1] - CEO Xu Ran highlighted that the "national subsidy" policy has significantly stimulated consumer demand, particularly in the home appliance and computer categories, leading to a high base effect in industry growth [1] Business Strategy - During the "national subsidy" period, JD actively supported policy implementation, enhancing market share and supply chain capabilities in the home appliance and 3C categories, particularly through its self-operated model [2] - The continuous strengthening of these core advantages is seen as JD's differentiated competitive edge and the foundation for long-term business development [2] - JD aims to leverage its strengths in product, pricing, and service to reinforce user perception and continuously consolidate and enhance market share [2]