Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of protecting democracy and academic freedom during his speech at Princeton University's graduation ceremony, directly responding to recent policies from the Trump administration that target higher education [3][4] - Powell described American universities as "critical national assets" and highlighted their role in scientific innovation and economic vitality, urging graduates to actively defend democratic values [3][4] - The ongoing conflict between Powell and Trump has escalated, with Trump criticizing Powell for slow interest rate cuts and suggesting potential legal actions to remove him, despite the Supreme Court ruling that the president cannot unilaterally dismiss the Fed chairman [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is currently maintaining interest rates due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies, with Chicago Fed President Charles Evans indicating that any policy adjustments are unlikely until trade war impacts become clearer [4] - Powell's speech is seen as a declaration of defense for institutional integrity, revealing a dual crisis facing the U.S. financial and academic systems: interference in central bank independence threatens monetary policy credibility, while suppression of higher education could undermine national innovation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Musalem, emphasizes that the Federal Reserve is not a political organization and its independence is crucial for anchoring inflation expectations [1] Group 1 - The independence of the central bank is highlighted as a key factor in stabilizing inflation expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Macklem, expressed strong support for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, emphasizing the sanctity of central bank independence [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Central Bank Independence - Macklem stated that the independence of central banks is "sacred and inviolable," highlighting its importance for the benefits it brings to the public in Canada and other countries [1] - He criticized any actions that threaten the independence of central banks, indicating that such behavior is undesirable [1] Political Pressure - The comments were made in response to pressures from former President Trump, who has publicly criticized Powell, labeling him as a "big loser" and a "fool," while suggesting that interest rates should be lowered [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the independence of the central bank should not be threatened [1]

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve does not need to rush to adjust interest rate policies as current data supports a wait-and-see approach, particularly the weakening relationship between confidence data and spending data [1] Trump Tariffs - The impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation may be temporary; if the tariffs remain in place, the Federal Reserve will struggle to make progress on its dual policy goals of price stability and employment [1] - Businesses are delaying investment decisions, and households are postponing consumption expenditures, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to take preemptive action [1] - Trade negotiations could significantly alter the current situation [1] Inflation and Employment - The potential inflation outlook appears favorable, with data likely to easily meet one of the Federal Reserve's dual targets of price stability and employment [1] Central Bank Independence - Statements from Trump are not expected to affect the Federal Reserve's operations [2]

在美联储与总统特朗普关系紧张之际，4月25日，备受关注的美联储主席潜在继任者、特朗普盟友凯文· 沃什（Kevin Warsh）在华盛顿出席"三十国集团"（Group of 30）活动并发表演讲。 然而这份警示终被漠视。如今的美联储已深度介入美国政府的各项经济决策，其角色定位愈 发模糊。在我看来，这种"全天候、全方位"的权力扩张，正在引发宏观经济政策的系统性 偏差。当央行试图扮演"经济总规划师"而非专注本业时，职能错位导致双重恶果：既未能履 行维持价格稳定的法定职责，又助推了联邦支出的无序膨胀。更严重的是，这种越位表现正 侵蚀着货币政策独立性的正当性基础。 当前美国财政正走向危险境地，特别是疫情后的支出狂潮堪称失控。在此过程中，美联储难 辞其咎：经济寒冬时鼓动财政发力，却在复苏期对财政纪律保持缄默。货币政策制定者本应 谨守本分，若执意对财政政策置喙，至少应保持立场的连贯性。 作为量化宽松（QE）政策的设计参与者，我始终认为其在危机时刻的应急价值。2008年我 们将利率压至零区间，创新采用资产购买工具为冻结的市场注入活水——这在当时是必要且 明智的抉择。 作为前美联储理事和曾被特朗普考虑担任财政部长的人选，沃什被 ...

TradeMax发现在全球经济局势错综复杂的背景下，美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔在国际舞台上的发声，不仅 关乎美国货币政策走向，更引发了各界对央行独立性的深度探讨。 有知情人士透露，在世界各国财长会议上，杰罗姆・鲍威尔着重强调了央行保持独立于政治影响的必要 性。他认为，唯有如此，央行才能将全部精力聚焦于维持通胀稳定以及推动高就业率这两大核心目标上。 上周五，鲍威尔在国际货币基金组织的会议中，面向众多决策者和财政部长发表讲话，言辞恳切且极具说 服力，全力捍卫央行的独立性。他这番坚定的表态，赢得了现场观众热烈的掌声，后续发言的同行们也纷 纷发表了同样激昂且支持央行独立性的言论。面对外界的关注，美联储发言人选择不对此事发表评论。 鲍威尔此番强调央行独立性的言论，有着特殊的背景。在其发言之前，美国总统特朗普在近段时间多次于 公开场合抨击鲍威尔。特朗普在社交媒体上直接称鲍威尔为 "重大输家"，并且再度强烈要求美联储降低利 率。此外，特朗普甚至还公开提及解雇鲍威尔一事，这些言论迅速在华尔街引发了强烈震动，投资者们忧 心忡忡，担心央行的独立性会因此受到威胁。尽管特朗普随后表示并无解雇美联储主席的意图，但此前的 一系列言论已经造 ...

鲍威尔在IMF最新讲话中高调宣示：美联储必须独立，绝不受政治干预。他宁愿背负"太迟先生"的骂 名，也绝不冒险出错。 这些言论以及特朗普关于解雇鲍威尔的公开言论引发了华尔街的不安，投资者担心央行的独立性可能受 到威胁。特朗普随后表示，他无意解雇美联储主席。 在FOMC决策者于5月6日至7日召开下一次会议之前，美联储于上周六开始其惯常的静默期。预计官员 们将在这次会议上连续第三次维持利率稳定。鲍威尔和其他官员表示愿意暂时按兵不动，部分原因是为 了防范特朗普的关税政策可能导致持续通胀。 鲍威尔一直强调央行独立性的重要性，并表示美联储官员在制定政策时不会考虑政治因素。鲍威尔在此 前的评论中说，他和他的同事们不会被免职，除非"有原因"。 鲍威尔4月16日在芝加哥经济俱乐部（Economic Club of Chicago）表示，美联储的独立性"在华盛顿和国 会得到了广泛的理解和支持，这一点在国会非常重要"。 他在那次活动中补充说："我们绝不会受到任何政治压力的影响。人们想说什么就说什么。这很好。这 不是问题。但我们将严格按照自己的意愿行事，不考虑政治或任何其他外在因素。" 据听取了美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔（Jerome ...

Core Viewpoint - The conflict between Trump's aggressive trade policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is intensifying, with Trump criticizing Fed Chair Powell for not lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy amid rising tariffs and supply chain disruptions [1][3][11]. Group 1: Trump's Actions and Criticism - Trump has previously criticized Powell's interest rate hikes, claiming they stifle economic growth, and has hinted at wanting Powell to resign [3]. - Trump attempted to use public opinion and legal avenues to remove Powell, threatening to fire him and exploring the possibility of doing so under "just cause" [3][6]. - Following warnings from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Commerce Secretary Ross about potential market turmoil from Powell's dismissal, Trump stated he had "never intended" to remove Powell but continued to criticize the Fed's policies [4][11]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Response - The Federal Reserve, under Powell's leadership, has maintained its independence, emphasizing that monetary policy should not be influenced by political pressures [3][8]. - The Fed's internal unity is strong, with officials collectively defending their independence and emphasizing the need to combat inflation [7][8]. - The release of the Fed's Beige Book highlighted the negative impacts of tariffs, including rising costs and supply chain issues, which Powell used to reinforce the Fed's stance against political interference [7][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - Financial markets reacted negatively to the rumors of Powell's potential dismissal, with significant sell-offs in stocks and bonds [4][7]. - The Beige Book reported widespread "cost-push inflation" across the U.S., with specific examples of industries facing severe cost increases and layoffs [7][8]. - As the 2026 elections approach, the ongoing conflict between the Fed's independence and political pressures will continue to shape economic conditions and market confidence in the U.S. financial system [11].

摘要今日周日市场休市。周五（4月25日）黄金t+d收报784.80元/克，下跌1.08%，日内最高上探800.00 元/克，最低触及780.90元/克。 今日周日市场休市。周五（4月25日）黄金t+d收报784.80元/克，下跌1.08%，日内最高上探800.00元/ 克，最低触及780.90元/克。 周二，美国总统特朗普表示，他没有罢免美联储主席鲍威尔的计划，但表示他希望降息，"我希望看到 他在降低利率方面更加积极主动一些。"为此市场担忧情绪有所缓和，但到周三，特朗普言论再变，表 示他还没有给美联储主席鲍威尔打电话，但补充说他可能会打电话。 国际货币基金组织首席经济学家和欧洲央行行长声援鲍威尔，强调央行必须保持独立性，国际货币基金 组织(IMF)首席经济学家古兰沙周二被问及美国总统特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔的抨击时强调保持央行 独立性以维护其对抗通胀的公信力的重要性。 古兰沙称，各国央行在管理通胀方面面临着一个微妙的时刻，尤其是在美国这样的国家，特朗普对进口 商品加征关税预计将刺激通胀。 他称："关键是要确保通胀预期保持锚定，确保每个人都相信央行将采取必要行动，有序地推动通胀回 到央行的目标水平。"他表示，央 ...