Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The data center industry has become the core incremental application scenario for the power equipment sector, directly driving demand growth and technological iteration for power equipment [5][2] - The report emphasizes the need to incorporate AI industry multidimensional indicators to accurately gauge the demand for power distribution equipment, given the capital expenditure scale and long investment return cycles in the data center sector [2][5] - Key indicators are constructed from three aspects: demand side (capital expenditure from leading cloud vendors), supply chain (GPU supply tracking), and AI application side (development of AI applications) [2][5] Summary by Sections Demand Side - Capital expenditure from overseas major cloud vendors reached $113.862 billion in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59.42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.30% [7] - Alibaba's capital expenditure in Q3 2025 was 31.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.10% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18.55% [10] - Tencent's capital expenditure in Q3 2025 was 13 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.05% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 32.05% [10] Supply Chain - NVIDIA's total revenue in Q3 2025 was $57.006 billion, with data center product revenue reaching $51.215 billion, marking a historical peak with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 24.62% and a year-on-year growth of 66.44% [15] - TSMC's revenue in December 2025 was 335 billion NTD, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [22] - The CPU price index in December 2025 was 101.21, showing a slight increase from 99.04 in November [27] AI Application Side - The token call volume from January 27 to February 2, 2026, was 9.81 trillion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 26.91% [36] - The price of tokens for models scoring over 40 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index decreased by over 50% in Q3 2025 [45] - The report highlights the steady growth in the number of AI models and the increasing application deployment, which directly impacts the capital expenditure cycle of data centers [29]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Wuhan LianTe Technology Co., Ltd., has shown significant growth in its optical communication module business, benefiting from advancements in technology and favorable market conditions, particularly in the data center and 5G communication sectors. Group 1: Company Overview - Wuhan LianTe Technology was established on October 28, 2011, and went public on September 13, 2022. The company specializes in the research, development, production, and sales of optical communication transceiver modules [7]. - The company's main revenue sources include 10G and above optical modules (92.72%), below 10G optical modules (5.57%), and material sales and leasing (1.71%) [7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 847 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.75%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was approximately 81.8 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 31.39% [8]. - The company has distributed a total of 46.85 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing [8]. Group 3: Market Position and Technology - The company possesses core capabilities in optical chip integration, high-speed optical devices, and high-speed optical module design and production. It is currently developing 800G optical modules and technologies required for next-generation products [2]. - The optical module market is primarily driven by the data communication sector, which has surpassed the telecom market as the fastest-growing segment. The telecom market, particularly with the rollout of 5G, is expected to significantly increase demand for optical modules [2][3]. Group 4: Recent Stock Performance - On February 9, the company's stock rose by 3.73%, with a trading volume of 2.612 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 19.05%, bringing the total market capitalization to approximately 25.592 billion yuan [1]. - The average trading cost of the stock is 207.71 yuan, with recent trends indicating a rapid exit of chips, suggesting a potential need for portfolio adjustment [6].

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Core Viewpoints - The communication industry is expected to enter a new prosperity cycle due to significant improvements in supply and demand relationships, particularly in the fiber optic cable sector [1][14]. Industry Overview - In January 2026, the average price of G.652.D single-mode fiber in China exceeded 40 CNY per core kilometer, reaching a seven-year high, with some manufacturers quoting prices as high as 50 CNY per core kilometer. The price increase in January alone exceeded 75% [7][14]. - Demand is surging from data centers and special products, with a notable recovery trend in telecom demand. AI data center requirements are driving both volume and price increases for fiber optic cables, as they are widely used in data center scale-out scenarios [15][16]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a rapid increase in demand for fiber optic drones, with deployment expected by mid-2024. These drones typically require fiber optics as consumables, indicating a significant demand increase [15][16]. Supply Dynamics - The utilization rate of optical preforms remains high, with AI and special products occupying traditional G.652.D fiber production capacity. The production of optical preforms is the longest cycle in the fiber optic cable industry, and most capacity is controlled by leading domestic and international manufacturers [16]. - The production capacity of major fiber optic manufacturers is currently at full capacity, making it difficult to alleviate supply-demand imbalances in the short term, which is likely to keep prices high [16]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of the improving supply-demand relationship in the fiber optic cable sector and the layout of high-value products. Both data communication and telecom demand are expected to benefit fiber manufacturers, with prices likely to continue rising in the short term [17]. - There is a significant increase in demand for fiber optics from data centers in North America, Europe, and the Middle East, with domestic manufacturers expected to gain market share due to limited capacity from existing overseas suppliers [17]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the fiber optic cable sector, including Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Limited Company, Hengtong Optic-Electric Co., Ltd., Zhongtian Technology Co., Ltd., and FiberHome Technologies Group [17].

Group 1 - Southern Communications (01617) surged over 60%, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 380% [1] - As of the report, the stock price reached 0.48 HKD, with a trading volume of 47.53 million HKD [1] - The company is a fiber optic cable supplier and aims to deepen cooperation with telecom operators to solidify its core market [1] Group 2 - Southern Communications plans to align with telecom operators' construction plans in 5G, gigabit optical networks, 800G/1.6T backbone networks, and data center interconnect (DCI) [1] - The company is focused on maintaining and expanding its market share in operator procurement tenders [1] - There is a strong emphasis on expanding into non-operator and overseas markets, increasing investment in data centers, industrial internet, and enterprise private networks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Machinery and Electric (02722) saw a significant increase of over 18%, currently trading at 2.64 HKD with a transaction volume of 87.34 million HKD, following the strong performance of Cummins Inc. in its fourth quarter and full-year results despite a weak North American truck market [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Cummins reported a strong operational performance in Q4 and for the full year, achieving record sales and profitability driven by its distribution and power systems divisions [1] - For Q4 2025, Cummins expects revenue of 8.5 billion USD, a 1% increase year-over-year, with net profit projected at 593 million USD compared to 418 million USD in the same period of 2024 [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Chongqing Machinery and Electric holds stakes in both Chongqing Cummins and Chongqing Hitachi Energy, positioning it well for future growth [1] - Chongqing Cummins is the only large-bore engine manufacturer for Cummins in China, actively expanding capacity due to industry supply constraints, with expectations for continued growth in high-power engines for data centers and other sectors in the coming years [1] - The investment firm anticipates that Chongqing Hitachi Energy will benefit from sustained demand in domestic and international power grid requirements, leading to prolonged economic prosperity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global chip market is experiencing a strong recovery driven by the continuous demand for AI computing power and the accelerated expansion of data centers by global cloud service providers [2]. Group 1: Company Overview - 澜起科技 officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on February 9, with a final issue price of HKD 106.89 per share, and its market capitalization reached HKD 192.9 billion [3]. - The company plans to raise approximately HKD 6.9 billion through this issuance, contributing to the active IPO market in Hong Kong [6]. - 澜起科技's stock price has seen a significant increase, with a more than 100% rise in its A-share price over the past year, briefly surpassing a market cap of RMB 200 billion [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for AI data center construction is driving the evolution of servers towards higher capacity and faster memory configurations, increasing the demand for DRAM and interconnect chips [3]. - According to 招商证券, the price of various storage products is expected to rise significantly in Q1 2026, with global storage supply likely to remain tight throughout the year [4]. - The current chip cycle is seeing a shift in capital flow, moving from consumer electronics to more certain core segments like computing power and storage [4]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - 澜起科技 attracted strong cornerstone investors, including Alibaba and JPMorgan, indicating high market expectations for its IPO [3][8]. - The company received nearly 280 times oversubscription during the public offering phase, reflecting strong demand from institutional investors [3]. - The interest from sovereign wealth funds and long-term funds has also been notable, with order demand reaching several times the issuance scale [9]. Group 4: Client Base and Revenue - 澜起科技's top five clients contributed revenues of RMB 3.091 billion, RMB 1.713 billion, RMB 2.791 billion, and RMB 3.116 billion in respective reporting periods, accounting for 84.2%, 74.8%, 76.7%, and 76.8% of total revenue [12]. - The company has a high customer satisfaction rate exceeding 90%, indicating strong competitiveness in terms of product stability, compatibility, and long-term supply capability [12]. - As of Q3 2025, approximately 72.0% of 澜起科技's revenue came from overseas markets, with over half from South Korea [13]. Group 5: Industry Trends - The global semiconductor industry is entering a new expansion cycle driven by the AI wave, with increasing certainty in demand recovery [14]. - The supply side is seeing leading semiconductor manufacturers tilt production capacity towards high-end AI chips, which is expected to maintain a tight supply of general-purpose chips until 2027 [14]. - Recent price increases in the chip industry have been significant, with some products seeing price hikes of up to 80%, indicating a longer-term upward trend in chip prices [14].

证券研究报告 26Q1存储价格全面上涨， 看好存储大周期机会 电子行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 电子团队 分析师：杨钟 S1060525080001（证券投资咨询） 郭冠君 S1060524050003（证券投资咨询） 邮箱： YANGZHONG035@pingan.com.cn GUOGUANJUN625@pingan.com.cn 2026年2月8日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心摘要 存储周期持续上行，26Q1合约价延续涨价。根据TrendForce数据，由于AI与数据中心需求持续增长，导致全球存储产品 供需进一步失衡，存储原厂议价能力继续加强，预计26Q1整体DRAM合约价（包含HBM）将环比上涨80-85%，而整体 NAND Flash合约价则环比上涨55-60%。由于存储价格持续上涨，驱动行业产值逐年增加，预计2026年整体存储产业产 值将达5516亿美元，2027年有望同比+53%至8427亿美元。 一周行情回顾：本周，半导体行业指数出现下跌，周涨幅为-7.97%，跑输沪深300指数6.64个百分点；2025年年初以来， 半导体行业指数上涨58.59%，跑赢沪深300指数40.58个百 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong buy rating for Coherent, anticipating a performance that will exceed the benchmark index by more than 20% in the next six months [44]. Core Insights - Coherent achieved record revenue of $1.69 billion in FY2026Q2, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 7% and a year-over-year growth of 17%. The Non-GAAP gross margin improved to 39%, with a Non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.29, reflecting an 11% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 35% year-over-year increase [3][7]. - The data center and communication segment accounts for over 70% of total revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 34% in Q2. The data center business saw a 36% increase, driven by strong demand for 800G and 1.6T transceivers [8][9]. - The company expects FY2026Q3 revenue to be between $1.7 billion and $1.84 billion, with a Non-GAAP gross margin forecasted between 38.5% and 40.5% [10]. Summary by Sections FY2026Q2 Performance Overview - Coherent reported a strong performance in FY2026Q2 with total revenue reaching a record $1.69 billion, a 7% increase from the previous quarter and a 17% increase year-over-year. Excluding revenue from the recently divested aerospace and defense business, revenue growth was 9% quarter-over-quarter and 22% year-over-year. The Non-GAAP gross margin was 39%, with a Non-GAAP operating margin of 19.9% and a diluted EPS of $1.29 [3][7]. Business Segment Performance 1. **Data Center and Communication Segment** - This segment is the core growth driver, contributing over 70% of total revenue. In Q2, revenue grew 34% year-over-year, with the data center business growing 36% due to strong demand for 800G and 1.6T transceivers. The communication business also performed well, with a 44% year-over-year increase [8][9]. 2. **Industrial Segment** - After excluding the recently divested aerospace and defense business, the industrial segment saw a 4% quarter-over-quarter growth and remained flat year-over-year. The semiconductor industry orders significantly increased in Q2, indicating potential for growth in the upcoming quarters [9]. FY2026Q3 Guidance - Coherent anticipates FY2026Q3 revenue between $1.7 billion and $1.84 billion, including $5 million from the Munich product division before its sale. The Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be between 38.5% and 40.5%, with total operating expenses projected between $320 million and $340 million [10].

Group 1 - The core narrative is that the story of AI is shifting from "software eating the world" to "hardware being constrained by the world," highlighting a growing risk in the investment landscape due to political and physical limitations on data center expansion [1][4][15] - A rare bipartisan consensus has emerged between Senator Bernie Sanders and Governor Ron DeSantis regarding the need to halt the rapid increase of data centers, driven by public concerns over the negative impacts of AI [2][4] - The political landscape is changing, with states like New York, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas considering legislation to pause new data center projects or eliminate tax incentives, reflecting a growing backlash against the expansion of AI infrastructure [2][4] Group 2 - The anticipated capital expenditure of approximately $600 billion in 2026 faces skepticism regarding its feasibility, as major tech companies plan to spend $670 billion on AI infrastructure this year alone [4][6] - The energy demand from data centers is projected to double by 2035, raising concerns about the current U.S. electrical grid's ability to meet this demand, which could hinder the construction of new data centers [8][9] - The Texas power grid operator ERCOT is implementing a review process for power consumption projects, causing delays and uncertainty for tech companies, which could jeopardize their expansion plans and the associated capital expenditures [9][10] Group 3 - The financial markets are reacting to the risk of unspent capital, leading to significant sell-offs in tech stocks, as investors reassess the viability of AI-related investments in light of potential physical constraints [10][12] - The shift in market sentiment has resulted in a "de-leveraging" trend, with funds moving from high-beta tech stocks to more defensive sectors like chemicals and regional banks, indicating a growing fear of an AI valuation bubble bursting [12][13] - The market faces a dilemma: either trust that the electrical grid can expand to accommodate the projected $600 billion in capital expenditures or acknowledge that physical limitations have been reached, which would have severe implications for AI demand and investment [13][15]