证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 02 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：不卷的预期，内卷的现实 | | | 复盘与思考: 7 月 2 日，近期中央财经委员会上强调的"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退出"成为今 日市场交易重心，股市定价后续企业走出内卷的预期。尽管市场一致期盼"不卷"，但投资者行为依旧"很卷"， 股市顺着供给侧的逻辑继续挖掘新题材，债市则在不多不空的环境下继续掘金利差机会。 国内资产方面，股市，大盘表现依旧稳定，上证指数小幅下跌 0.09%，沪深 300、中证红利上涨 0.02%、 0.72%；双创概念走弱，资金或在寻找新的方向，科创 50、创业板指下跌 1.22%、1.13%；中小微盘表现分化，中 证 1000、中证 2000 下跌 1.01%、0.85%，万得微盘股指则上涨 0.20%。债市，10 年、30 年国债活跃券下行 0.2bp、0.3bp 至 1.64%、1.85%；10 年、30 年国债期货主力合约上涨 0.14%、0.40%。 国际大宗商品价格延续温和上涨，而美元指数低位反弹。今日开盘后，国际主要大宗商品 ...

Group 1 - The State Council Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing emphasizes the need to promote new industrialization and develop new productive forces tailored to local conditions, focusing on high-quality economic development in the manufacturing sector [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is committed to implementing key measures for the autonomous opening of the capital market, aiming to enhance the attractiveness and competitiveness of the A-share market [1][2] - Guangzhou's housing provident fund management center proposes a policy for converting commercial loans to public loans, with specific thresholds for the personal housing loan rate [2] Group 2 - In June 2025, A-share new account openings reached 1.65 million, a year-on-year increase of 53%, with a total of 12.6 million new accounts opened in the first half of the year [3] - Chinese beverage brands like Mixue Ice City are gaining popularity among foreign consumers, marking a shift from merely replicating Western brands to establishing strong Chinese brands globally [4][5] - The marine economy sector is experiencing significant growth, with Chinese shipyards securing 168 offshore engineering orders worth nearly $23.6 billion since early 2024, capturing two-thirds of the global market share [6] Group 3 - The steel sector has seen a notable surge, with stocks like Chongqing Steel rising over 120%, driven by supportive real estate policies and infrastructure investment [7] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill in the U.S. has caused volatility in the cryptocurrency market, with over 100,000 liquidations reported, indicating investor concerns over fiscal deficits [11] - The new sugar substitute D-allohexose is gaining traction, with a projected market size growth from $23.7 million in 2023 to $42.3 million by 2030, indicating a strong investment opportunity in the sugar substitute sector [13]

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market saw a comprehensive rise in interest rate bonds, with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones. The stock market, represented by the Shanghai Composite Index, broke through resistance levels, indicating a potential upward trend. However, the weak fundamentals may continue to support the bond market, leading to high-level fluctuations in the bond market moving forward [19][22]. Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced a day of volatility, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 1%. The total trading volume was 1.4 trillion, a decrease of 0.09 trillion from the previous day. A total of 1,856 stocks rose while 3,103 stocks fell. The Shanghai Composite Index technically broke through the March high, opening up further upward potential. Three key observation points are highlighted to assess market strength: the June 23 low as a support level, the sustainability of trading volume, and the stability of the RMB exchange rate [2][22][23]. Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - The Dow Jones Index rose by 0.91%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices fell by 0.82% and 0.11%, respectively. Speculative sentiment is returning, and the U.S. stock market is expected to challenge new highs. The reduction in geopolitical risks has significantly lowered the risks associated with rising oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. Upcoming tax cuts and regulatory relaxations are anticipated to support U.S. stock earnings and upward expectations [3][27][28]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1672, an increase of 47 basis points from the previous close. The long-term trend indicates a bearish outlook for the USD, with strong support for the offshore RMB around 7.1 [31][32]. Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 1.16%, with construction materials, coal, and ferroalloy sectors leading the gains, while corn saw declines. The volatility of oil and related products has significantly decreased from high levels. The overall trend in the commodity market remains bearish, but recent rebounds from historical lows in domestic pricing suggest a potential for bullish strategies, especially for investors with appropriate stop-loss measures [4][36][37].

今天A股震荡走低，指数集体回调， 创业板指 跌逾1%。A股成交1.41万亿元，上日为1.5万亿元。 午后，钢铁股爆量拉升！ A股市场和商品市场紧密联动，成为今天盘面一大特点。 商品市场上， 多晶硅、玻璃期货领涨， 多晶硅涨停，玻璃涨超6%， 工业硅、硅铁等品种跟 涨。A股市场上，光伏、玻璃、钢铁等板块大涨。 | < 日 | | 钢铁指数(886012) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2231.23 80.38 +3.74% | | | 招标 | 成分 | 资讯 | 相关基金 | | 盛德鑫泰 | 35.85 | 17.00% | 5.21 | | 300881.SZ | | | | | 重庆钢铁 | 1.41 | 10.16% | 0.13 | | 601005.SH | | | | | 柳钢股份 | 4.26 | 10.08% | 0.39 | | 601003.SH | | | | | 直钢股份 | 3.86 | 9.97% | 0.35 | | 000959.SZ | | | | | 三钢闽光 | 3.86 | 8.12% | 0.29 | | 002110.S ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Core Insights - The domestic marine economy is entering a new phase of high-quality development, supported by significant policy backing and an enhanced strategic position. Recent government policies provide a solid legal foundation for macro guidance, strategic planning, and sustainable development of the marine economy, which is increasingly contributing to GDP, indicating strong resilience and broad prospects [3] - Deep-sea technology is accelerating as a new engine for economic growth under the context of new productive forces. Various national-level research projects are being implemented to promote the coordinated development of the entire industrial chain, including deep-sea exploration, resource development, and equipment manufacturing. China has achieved multiple technological breakthroughs in areas such as deep-sea drilling vessels and manned submersibles, laying the foundation for commercial development [3][25] - The shipbuilding and marine engineering equipment industry is a core force supporting the development of the marine economy and represents future investment opportunities. This industry, as a key component of high-end equipment manufacturing, is capital and technology-intensive, providing technical equipment for maritime transportation, marine resource development, and national defense construction [3][49] - The marine economy theme index has shown strong performance, with investment opportunities in deep-sea oil and gas and marine ecological services. As of July 1, 2025, the marine economy index and marine technology index increased by 9.3% and 13.7%, respectively, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the marine economy sector [3] - The marine economy's contribution to GDP has been steadily increasing, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6% over the past five years, outpacing overall GDP growth [9] Marine Economy Policy and Industry Context - In recent years, a series of policies have been introduced by national and local governments to promote marine economic development. The "14th Five-Year Plan" for marine economic development provides macro guidance and strategic planning, while the revised Marine Environmental Protection Law offers legal support for sustainable development [8] - The marine production value reached 10.54 trillion yuan in 2024, growing by 5.9% year-on-year, with the marine industry value added at 4.37 trillion yuan [8][24] Deep-Sea Technology Industry Chain - The deep-sea technology sector is supported by government initiatives, with significant breakthroughs in deep-sea exploration and resource development technologies. The market size for deep-sea technology is expected to reach 3.25 trillion yuan by 2025 [25][41] Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering Equipment Investment Insights - The shipbuilding and marine engineering equipment industry is crucial for providing technical equipment for maritime transportation and resource development. The industry encompasses upstream raw material suppliers, midstream equipment manufacturers, and downstream application markets [49][50] - The marine engineering equipment industry is experiencing growth opportunities due to the continuous development of marine economic strategies and global marine economic trends [49]

国债期货日报 2025/7/2 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 端在期货 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 57955 | 109.130 | 0.14% T主力成交量 | | 1131↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 45931 | 106.250 | 0.07% TF主力成交量 | | 1382↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.512 | 0.03% TS主力成交量 | 24944 | 34↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 121.180 | 0.4% TL主力成交量 ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（118）期 发布日期：2025-07-02 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/7/2 08:00 | 2025/7/1 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 44494.94 | 44094.77 | 400.170 | 0.908 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 20202.89 | 20369.73 | -166.840 | -0.819 | | 标普500 | | 6198.01 | 6204.95 | -6.940 | -0.112 | | 恒生指数 | | 24072.28 | 24284.15 | -211.870 | -0.872 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.37 | 1.42 | -0.055 | -3.868 | | 美元指数 | | 96.65 | 96.65 | 0.005 | 0.005 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.16 | 7.16 | 0 | 0 | | 主力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a significant price increase due to production cuts driven by environmental regulations and government policies aimed at eliminating outdated capacity. This has led to a reduction in steel output expectations, particularly in Tangshan, where a 30% production cut has been mandated from July 4 to July 15. The market anticipates further impacts on steel production as a result of these measures [1][3]. Group 1: Steel Industry Insights - The recent meeting of the Financial and Economic Committee emphasized the need to push for the elimination of outdated production capacity, directly influencing the steel market [1]. - Tangshan steel mills have received directives for a 30% production cut, which is expected to significantly lower steel inventories and production levels [1]. - The China Iron and Steel Association reported that steel billet exports in the first four months of 2025 have already surpassed the total for 2024, prompting suggestions for export restrictions [1]. - A total of approximately 30 million tons of production cuts have been ordered for the year, coinciding with a seasonal demand lull, which has heightened market expectations for reduced steel output [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Longjiang Securities noted that administrative production cuts could act as a bullish option for the steel sector, particularly in July, which is traditionally a slow season for demand [3]. - The announcement of production cuts in the photovoltaic glass sector has also led to significant price increases in that market, indicating a broader trend of supply-side reforms impacting various sectors [3]. - The steel sector saw a strong rally in stock prices, with companies like Liugang and Chongqing Steel hitting their daily price limits amid these developments [9][10]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The overall A-share market experienced a decline, with major indices falling and a significant number of stocks trading lower, reflecting broader economic pressures [9]. - The government is expected to focus on structural adjustments across multiple industries, including steel, refining, and new energy sectors, as part of its economic strategy [7]. Group 4: Investment Trends - Institutional investors have begun to sell off some positions in response to the recent price increases in steel, indicating a cautious approach to the current market dynamics [1][4]. - The market's reaction to production cuts in both the steel and photovoltaic sectors suggests a growing trend towards supply-side management as a means to stabilize prices and manage excess capacity [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid development of China's deep-sea economy, projecting a national marine production value to exceed 10 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for 7.8% of GDP, with a growth rate surpassing GDP by 0.9 percentage points [1][6]. Group 1: National Strategy and Policy Support - Deep-sea technology has been recognized as a strategic emerging industry, included in the 2025 government work report alongside commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy as new economic engines [3]. - The State Council issued a supplementary document for the "14th Five-Year" marine economic development plan, allocating significant funding to support deep-sea technology industrialization [6]. - Various coastal provinces have introduced policies to support marine economic development, indicating a regional competition to advance into the deep sea [6][7]. Group 2: Market Potential and Industry Growth - By 2030, the market size of core deep-sea technology segments is expected to reach 921.2 billion yuan, with potential for auxiliary maintenance services to push it into the trillion-yuan club [12]. - The global deep-sea mining market is projected to exceed 30 billion USD by 2030, with China holding a technological advantage and the most international exploration contracts [12]. - The deep-sea equipment manufacturing sector is anticipated to see an annual growth rate exceeding 12%, driven by the extreme conditions of deep-sea environments [12]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - China's deep-sea technology has reached the international first tier, with successful trials of the new generation of manned submersibles [9]. - The domestic production rate of high-end components for deep-sea equipment is currently below 65%, indicating significant opportunities for domestic manufacturers [9]. - Innovations in cross-disciplinary fields, such as underwater data centers and AI monitoring systems, are emerging as key areas of growth [9][14]. Group 4: Investment Trends and Capital Flow - The current stage of the deep-sea industry resembles the early days of the new energy sector, characterized by clear policies, technological breakthroughs, and defined application scenarios [16]. - Major investment firms are establishing specialized funds to capitalize on deep-sea projects, indicating a surge in interest and competition among investors [8][16]. - The valuation of companies with full deep-sea operational capabilities is rising, with significant interest from private equity in "hidden champions" within the sector [16].