Domestic Policy Insights - Since the April Politburo meeting, the central government's research has focused on five key areas: technology, consumption, employment, foreign trade, and platform economy, with technology, consumption, and employment being the primary focuses[2] - The government is promoting the "old for new" policy in home appliances and exploring new business models in cultural and tourism consumption to stimulate consumer potential[12] - Employment strategies include enhancing services for college graduates and migrant workers, and supporting vocational training institutions[12] Capital Market Developments - On July 1, the new "Information Disclosure Management Measures for Listed Companies" came into effect, clarifying disclosure requirements for various industries[31] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the first batch of 10 Sci-Tech Innovation Bonds ETFs on July 2 to guide funds into technology innovation[31] - The People's Bank of China released a draft for the "Cross-Border Payment System Business Rules" on July 4, seeking public feedback[31] Global Economic Tracking - The U.S. Congress passed the "Big and Beautiful" Act on July 3, which may impact international trade dynamics[6] - As of July 1, the U.S. manufacturing PMI was reported at 49%, slightly above the expected 48.8%[6] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs in June, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points month-on-month[6]

消费表现亮眼。 7月15日，中国上半年经济"成绩单"出炉。初步核算，上半年国内生产总值（GDP）为66.05万亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.3%。分季度看，一季度GDP同比 增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%。从环比看，二季度GDP增长1.1%。 国家统计局副局长盛来运在国新办新闻发布会上表示，上半年，国民经济顶压前行、稳定运行，主要指标好于预期，高质量发展扎实推进，经济保持了稳中有进、 稳中向好的发展态势。 对于下半年经济运行，盛来运表示，在政策的推动下，消费会继续保持良好发展态势，对经济增长的"压舱石"作用会继续显现。新产业、新业态、新模式将继续保 持较快增长速度。近期有关部门加快推出下半年政策，会继续为经济稳定运行发挥关键支撑作用。 其中，二季度最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率52.3%，较一季度略有提升；资本形成总额贡献率24.7%，货物和服务净出口贡献率23%。 "稳"是上半年经济运行突出特征 "上半年一个很突出的特点是经济运行'稳'。" 盛来运表示，从观察宏观经济四大指标看，经济增长稳中略升，上半年GDP同比增速比去年同期和全年均提升0.3个百 分点。调查失业率方面，整体保持平稳，今年以来，月度调查 ...

"对下半年消费，我们仍然充满乐观预期。"盛来运说，消费要持续健康发展必须要提高居民收入水平， 要进一步改善消费环境。中央政策以及相关部门出台的措施都在继续推进，各地还要进一步落实好中央 扩内需政策要求，按照消费提升行动方案部署，进一步"稳就业、促增收"，改善消费环境，增加优质消 费供给，推动消费市场持续健康发展。 (责任编辑：王晨曦) 他强调，中国正处在消费结构升级的关键阶段，人均GDP(国内生产总值)连续两年稳定在1.3万美元以 上。这个阶段正是消费升级的关键时期，文化旅游、医疗健康、养老消费空间广阔。另外，现在城乡差 距还较大，中国消费水平尤其是人均水平，跟一些发达国家相比还有很大差距，差距就是成长的空间。 这也意味着中国未来的消费成长性非常好，市场空间非常广阔。 中国国家统计局副局长盛来运15日在国务院新闻办公室举行的发布会上指出，上半年中国消费市场发展 态势向好。展望后期，消费政策还会继续加力。下半年刺激消费补贴政策已在陆续出台，各地也会继续 出台相关措施促消费。 盛来运指出，今年中国消费市场表现可圈可点，上半年消费对经济增长的贡献率达到52%。同时，上半 年中国消费市场，在一系列扩内需、促消费政策带 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of Guoxin Investment is on three key professional areas: technology innovation, renewable energy, and consumer upgrade [1][6] Group 2 - In the technology innovation sector, Guoxin Investment has made significant strides, particularly in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and biomedicine, helping companies overcome technical bottlenecks and achieve commercialization [3] - The investment in a well-known AI company has positioned it as an industry benchmark [3] Group 3 - In the renewable energy and green economy sector, Guoxin Investment is actively investing in photovoltaic, wind power, and energy storage, aligning with the "dual carbon" goals [3] - An investment in a lithium battery company has led it to become a leading supplier in the global market, while another photovoltaic company has significantly reduced power generation costs through technological innovation [3] Group 4 - In the consumer upgrade and brand rise sector, Guoxin Investment excels at identifying potential domestic brands, facilitating their growth from regional to national presence and from offline to online [5] - An investment in a domestic beauty brand has enabled it to rank among the top three in the industry within three years, becoming a representative of the "national trend" [5] Group 5 - Guoxin Investment's success is attributed to its deep understanding of industry trends and precise judgment of quality projects, showcasing strong professional capabilities and strategic vision across its investment areas [6]

消费政策还需继续加力。 7月15日，国家统计局公布数据显示，上半年，社会消费品零售总额245458亿元，同比增长5.0%，比一季度加快0.4个百分点。 今年上半年，社会消费品零售总额同比增长在加快，消费对经济增长的贡献率达到52%。其中，二季度增长5.4%，比一季度加快0.8个百分点，逐季提升。 从消费结构来看，1~6月，商品消费5.1%的增速支撑了社会消费品零售总额的稳健增长；餐饮收入则稳健增长，达到27480亿元，增长4.3%。 国家统计局副局长盛来运在7月15日的国新办发布会上表示，消费政策还会继续加力。关于消费补贴政策，有关方面已经对外宣布，下半年刺激消费补贴政 策已经在陆续出台，各地也会继续推出相关措施促消费。 北京大学经济学院教授苏剑表示，当前消费需求呈现出稳步回升态势，上半年社零增速震荡上行，"稳增长，促消费"政策效果显现。同时，6月份餐饮收入 出现明显波动，增速降至0.9%，说明餐饮收入增速并未企稳，居民有效需求有待进一步释放，居民捂紧钱袋子的状况有待进一步改善。 上半年商品零售额增长5.1% 上半年，消费品以旧换新政策对商品消费拉动明显，政策效应在进一步显现。 从商品品类来看，基本生活类和部 ...

Economic Overview - The Chinese economy has shown resilience in the face of complex international environments, with GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, slightly up from 5% in the same period last year [4][6] - Key economic indicators such as unemployment rates and consumer prices have remained stable, with the CPI showing a slight increase in June after several months of decline [4][35] - Domestic demand has been a significant driver of GDP growth, contributing 68.8% to the increase, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52% [5][8] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment reached 24.9 trillion yuan, with a nominal growth of 2.8%, while the actual growth, adjusted for price changes, was 5.3% [11] - Investment structure is improving, with manufacturing investment growing by 7.5% and high-tech service investment increasing by 8.6% [11][12] - The investment growth rate has experienced fluctuations due to external pressures and internal structural adjustments, particularly in traditional industries [12][14] Real Estate Market - The real estate market has shown signs of stabilization, with a reduction in the decline of new housing sales and improved market transactions [14][15] - The sales area of new residential properties decreased by 3.5%, but this was a significant improvement compared to previous declines [15] - Funding for real estate development has improved, with a reduction in the decline of funds received by developers [15] New Quality Productivity - The development of new quality productivity is emphasized as a key driver for high-quality growth, with R&D investment reaching 2.7% of GDP [17] - High-tech manufacturing value added increased by 9.5%, indicating robust growth in emerging industries [18] - The digital economy is expanding rapidly, with its core industries contributing approximately 10% to GDP [18] Consumer Market Dynamics - The retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.55 trillion yuan, growing by 5% year-on-year, with service consumption showing a notable increase [21][22] - Key trends include a rise in service consumption, holiday spending, and an increase in the sales of upgraded consumer goods [22][23] - The government is expected to continue implementing policies to stimulate consumption, which is crucial for sustaining economic growth [23][26] Inflation and Price Trends - The CPI showed a slight increase of 0.1% in June, marking a shift from previous months of decline, with core CPI rising to 0.7% [35][36] - Price trends are characterized by structural and transitional factors, with food and energy prices exerting downward pressure [36] - A moderate recovery in prices is anticipated in the second half of the year, supported by stable economic growth and effective demand policies [37]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's consumer market showed positive performance in the first half of 2025, driven by various policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [2][3] - Key factors driving consumption include accelerated service consumption, enhanced holiday spending, increased growth in upgraded consumption, and the rise of green consumption trends [2][3] - The government plans to continue implementing stimulus measures for consumption in the second half of the year, indicating sustained support for consumer growth [3] Group 2 - The per capita GDP in China has remained stable at over $13,000 for two consecutive years, marking a critical period for consumption upgrades [3] - There is significant market potential due to the large population of over 1.4 billion and the existing urban-rural consumption gap, which presents growth opportunities [3] - The government emphasizes the need to improve residents' income levels and enhance the consumption environment to ensure sustainable and healthy consumption development [3]

金十数据7月15日讯，国家统计局副局长盛来运表示，我们现在正处在消费结构升级的关键阶段，人均 GDP连续两年稳定在1.3万美元以上。这个阶段正是消费升级的关键时期，文化旅游、医疗健康、养老 消费空间广阔，我们国家有14亿多人口，市场规模优势非常明显。另外，现在城乡差距还比较大，我们 消费水平尤其是人均水平，跟一些发达国家相比还有很大差距，差距就是成长的空间。中国未来的消费 成长性非常好，市场空间非常广阔。所以对下半年的消费，我们仍然充满乐观预期。 （中国网） 国家统计局副局长盛来运：中国未来的消费成长性非常好，市场空间非常广阔 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The current economic operation is in a neutral range, and the negative economic cycle of "sharp decline in housing prices and stock prices - wealth shrinkage - consumption downgrade" in the past two years may have come to an end. The marginal change in the economy compared to 2024 may lie in consumption. The report expects interest rate bonds to fluctuate narrowly in Q3 2025, and is bullish on long - duration urban investment bonds and capital bonds. It also anticipates a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026, highlighting opportunities in short - to medium - term US bonds [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Macro - level News - In June, the year - on - year CPI was +0.1%, and the month - on - month was - 0.1%. The year - on - year food price was - 0.3%, and the month - on - month was - 0.4%; the year - on - year non - food price was +0.1%, and the month - on - month was flat. The转正 of CPI in June and the rebound of core CPI may indicate the initial effectiveness of policies to expand domestic demand, but the recovery foundation is not yet stable [2][12]. - The General Office of the State Council issued a notice to further strengthen policy support for stable employment, including seven aspects such as supporting enterprises to stabilize jobs and promoting employment through skills training [2][13]. - Trump announced that starting from August 1, a 50% tariff will be imposed on all copper imported into the United States, and different tariff conditions (20% - 50%) will be imposed on 24 countries and 27 EU member states [2][13]. 2. Medium - level High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of July 6, the daily average retail volume of passenger car manufacturers increased by 1.2% year - on - year, and the daily average wholesale volume increased by 39.0% year - on - year. As of June 27, the total retail volume of three major household appliances increased by 16.4% year - on - year, and the total retail sales increased by 1.6% year - on - year. However, the total box office revenue in the past 7 days as of July 11 decreased by 26.5% year - on - year [14][19][23]. 2.2 Transportation - As of July 6, the container throughput of ports increased by 5.6% year - on - year, railway freight volume increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and highway truck traffic increased by 1.7% year - on - year. But the CCFI composite index as of July 11 decreased by 37.0% year - on - year, and the average Baltic Dry Freight Index as of July 11 decreased by 16.7% year - on - year [14][24][31]. 2.3 Capacity Utilization - As of July 9, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of major steel enterprises increased by 2.4 pct year - on - year. As of July 10, the average asphalt capacity utilization rate increased by 4.0 pct year - on - year, but the soda ash capacity utilization rate decreased by 6.3 pct year - on - year, and the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.8 pct year - on - year [15][45][47]. 2.4 Real Estate - As of July 11, the total commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days decreased by 11.0% year - on - year, while the total number of transactions increased by 17.1% year - on - year. The second - hand housing market also showed a downward trend, with the transaction area of 9 sample cities decreasing by 7.4% year - on - year as of July 4, and the listing price index of second - hand housing in national cities decreasing by 7.0% year - on - year as of July 6 [15][54][58]. 2.5 Prices - As of July 11, most commodity prices declined. The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 16.1% year - on - year, the average wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 7.4% year - on - year, the average price of thermal coal at northern ports decreased by 27.6% year - on - year, and the average spot price of WTI crude oil decreased by 17.8% year - on - year [15][68][73]. 3. Bond Market and Foreign Exchange Market - On July 11, overnight Shibor, R001, R007, DR001, DR007, IBO001, and IBO007 all increased slightly compared to July 7. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds on July 11 increased by 3.4BP, 3.6BP, 2.2BP, and 2.4BP respectively compared to July 4. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB on July 11 was 7.17, up 58 pips compared to July 4 [79][80][86]. 4. Institutional Behavior - As of July 13, the net - breaking rate of public wealth management products of wealth management companies was about 0.57%, down 1.40 pct from the beginning of the year, and the current percentile of the net - breaking rate within the year was below 5%. As of July 11, the duration of bond funds continued to rise. The median and average duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest rate bonds reached 5.3 years and 5.4 years respectively, up 0.18 years from the previous week; the median and average duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds were 2.2 years, down 0.01 years from the previous week [89][91][92]. 5. Investment Suggestions - Interest rate bonds are expected to fluctuate narrowly in Q3 2025. The report is bullish on long - duration urban investment bonds and capital bonds, including urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds. It strongly recommends perpetual bonds of Minsheng Bank, Bohai Bank, and Hengfeng Bank, and suggests paying attention to opportunities in insurance sub - debt. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will significantly cut interest rates in 2026, presenting opportunities in short - to medium - term US bonds [2][97].

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, despite a decline in operating income due to market conditions [2][3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company to be between 13.31 million and 14.31 million yuan, representing an increase of 4.61 million to 5.61 million yuan, or a growth of 53.02% to 64.52% year-on-year [3][5]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 9.95 million and 10.95 million yuan, which indicates a decrease of 1.92 million to 2.91 million yuan, or a decline of 14.89% to 22.66% year-on-year [3][5]. Previous Year Comparison - In the first half of 2024, the total profit was 10.14 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company at 8.70 million yuan, and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses at 12.87 million yuan [7]. Reasons for Profit Increase - The increase in net profit is primarily attributed to the recovery of the securities market, which has positively impacted the investment income and fair value changes of the company's financial assets [9]. - However, the operating income has slightly decreased due to the impact of consumer upgrades and channel transformations in retail products [9].