Core Viewpoint - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. economy is re-emerging, with inflation expected to rise and economic growth to slow down in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Drivers - Tariff impacts are not fully realized yet, as U.S. companies imported heavily in Q1 to avoid high tariffs, leading to high inventories. Once these inventories are depleted, companies will have to resume imports, likely passing tariff costs onto consumers [2]. - Immigration policies have tightened, leading to labor shortages in key sectors such as construction, agriculture, and elder care, which may push up wage levels and contribute to inflationary pressures [2]. - Moderate fiscal policy expansion is anticipated to contribute 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth over the next 12 months, increasing inflation risks [2]. Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - U.S. GDP growth is projected to be below trend levels, with estimates of 1.3% for this year and 1.2% for next year [3]. Group 3: Long-term Fiscal Concerns - The rapid passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which makes the temporary personal income tax cuts from 2017 permanent, is expected to increase the budget deficit by over $3 trillion over the next decade. This is unusual given the already low unemployment rate [5]. - The U.S. budget deficit is projected to remain above 6% of GDP in the coming years, with government debt reaching about 100% of GDP, and interest payments consuming 3% to 4% of GDP, which is unsustainable [5]. - Changes in the buyer structure of U.S. debt, with reduced purchases from foreign central banks and increased sensitivity from private investors, may lead to greater volatility in bond yields [5]. Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - Other regions are expected to experience slower growth but easing inflation, providing more room for central banks to cut rates. Asian exports are anticipated to decline further in the second half of the year, while Germany's fiscal and infrastructure spending may take time to support economic growth [6]. Group 5: Currency and Monetary Policy - The Nomura team holds a "soft dollar" stance due to stagflation pressures in the U.S., despite current interest rate differentials favoring the U.S. The dollar is considered significantly overvalued, and the persistent trade deficit may limit its performance [7]. - Concerns about the potential appointment of a "shadow Fed chair" by Trump could add uncertainty to monetary policy, as this individual might influence market expectations and complicate the current Fed chair's policy-making [8].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's 10-year government bond yield reached a near two-month high of 1.55%, indicating a pessimistic outlook on the economy [2] - The 30-year bond yield rose by 6.5 basis points to 3.111%, while the 20-year yield increased to 2.56% [2] - Japan's core consumer inflation hit 3.2% in January, the highest in 19 months, surpassing the Bank of Japan's 2% target [2] Group 2: Economic Assessment - The Japanese government downgraded its economic assessment to "deteriorating" for the first time in five years, signaling potential recession [2] - Factors contributing to the economic downturn include inflation, tariffs, and a significant drop in rice production [3] Group 3: Rice Shortage - Japan is experiencing a rice shortage due to a combination of short-term factors like last summer's heat and long-term policies that reduced rice planting area [3] - Rice production decreased by over 600,000 tons from 2020 to 2023, with 2023's harvest at a historical low of 6.61 million tons [3] Group 4: Political Landscape - The upcoming Senate election on July 20 will focus on key issues such as rising prices and tariff challenges, with the ruling coalition aiming to maintain a majority [4] - Different proposals to address inflation include a one-time cash payment from the ruling coalition and a consumption tax cut from the opposition [4] - The ruling coalition faces challenges in balancing opinions and maintaining support amid rising inflation and economic concerns [4]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections have brought foreigner-related issues to the forefront, highlighting the tension between the need for foreign labor and rising public concerns about safety and welfare associated with foreigners [1][8]. Group 1: Foreign Population and Economic Impact - As of the end of last year, the foreign population in Japan reached approximately 3.769 million, marking a 10.5% increase year-on-year, with permanent residents accounting for about 918,000 [3][4]. - Japan welcomed over 33 million foreign tourists last year, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, indicating that tourism has become a significant component of Japan's economic growth [3]. Group 2: Public Sentiment and Media Influence - There is a growing public sentiment in Japan expressing concerns over social issues attributed to foreigners, including complaints about scholarship competition, healthcare burdens, and perceived higher crime rates [3][4]. - Social media has amplified negative perceptions of foreigners, with unfounded claims about higher crime rates being frequently cited by right-wing politicians [4][11]. Group 3: Political Responses and Policy Implications - The political landscape is divided, with right-wing parties advocating for stricter management of foreigners, while left-wing parties emphasize multiculturalism and human rights [8][10]. - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party is pushing for measures such as tightening regulations on foreign driver's license conversions and limiting foreign property purchases [8][9]. Group 4: Long-term Policy Challenges - Japan's immigration policy has been criticized for being reactive rather than proactive, leading to misunderstandings and biases between locals and immigrants [6][12]. - The lack of a systematic integration policy for immigrants has been highlighted as a significant issue, contrasting with more established frameworks in European countries [12][13].

Core Insights - Jamie Dimon, Chairman of JPMorgan Chase, indicated that tariffs, immigration policies, and deficits are contributing to inflation in the United States [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are identified as a factor leading to inflation [1] - Immigration policies are also highlighted as a contributing element to inflation [1] - The issue of deficits is mentioned as a significant driver of inflation in the U.S. economy [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. immigration policies and budget deficits are contributing to inflationary pressures [1] Group 2 - The CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, highlights the impact of immigration policies on the economy [1] - The discussion includes how budget deficits are influencing inflation rates [1]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.29%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.22%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.20% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up by 1.18%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.24%, France's CAC 40 up by 1.24%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 1.09% [1] - WTI crude oil is up by 0.20%, priced at $68.47 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is up by 0.16%, priced at $70.26 per barrel [1] Corporate Insights - Bank of America has raised its S&P 500 year-end target from 5600 to 6300, with a 12-month target of 6600, citing strong corporate resilience despite economic challenges [2] - Goldman Sachs suggests the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in September, three months earlier than previously expected, due to moderate inflation and a cooling job market [2] - The Mannheim used car value index has seen a significant increase, with a 1.6% month-over-month rise and a 6.3% year-over-year increase, attributed to tariffs affecting new car sales [3] - Apple is undergoing a major management change as COO Jeff Williams retires, with Sabih Khan set to take over amid challenges such as tariff costs and slowing iPhone growth [6] - Google is focusing its AI investments on infrastructure, with a commitment of approximately $75 billion for data center development [7] - Starbucks' China business is attracting bids with a valuation of up to $10 billion, with several private equity firms interested in acquiring stakes [8] - WPP has issued a profit warning, lowering its 2025 revenue forecast by 3% to 5% due to client losses, including a significant contract with Mars worth $1.7 billion [9] - Merck is nearing a $10 billion acquisition of Verona Pharmaceuticals, focusing on respiratory drug development [10]

Group 1: Economic and Public Service Reforms - The UK government under Prime Minister Keir Starmer aims to stabilize the economy and improve public services, with a focus on the National Health Service (NHS) reform and increasing investment in primary healthcare [1][2] - The UK's annual inflation rate has decreased from its peak in 2023, nearing the Bank of England's target by the first quarter of 2025, attributed to fiscal discipline and coordination with the central bank [1] - Despite these efforts, the overall economic growth remains weak, with the International Monetary Fund predicting a growth rate of around 1.1% for 2025, below the average of major developed economies [1] Group 2: Immigration Policy and Foreign Relations - The Labour government has terminated the previous government's "Rwanda plan" but maintains a focus on strengthening border enforcement and curbing illegal immigration, attempting to balance left-wing and right-wing voter expectations [2] - Starmer's government emphasizes "pragmatic cooperation" in foreign relations, seeking to improve ties with the EU, marking the first formal summit since Brexit with EU leaders in May [2] - The relationship with the United States remains stable, although there are existing differences on issues such as the Middle East situation and US-UK trade negotiations [2] Group 3: Public Sentiment and Political Landscape - Public opinion polls indicate that while Labour's support is higher than the Conservative Party, it has declined compared to the last election, reflecting dissatisfaction with the government's slow reform pace [3] - The emergence of the new right-wing party, the Reform Party, has surpassed Labour in some polls, attracting significant support from centrist voters [3] - Analysts note that Starmer's cautious and pragmatic governance style prioritizes repair and recovery, raising questions about the government's willingness to pursue more ambitious reforms [3]

Group 1 - The upcoming phone call between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky will address the sudden halt of key weapon shipments to Ukraine [1] - Trump expressed disappointment regarding his conversation with Russian President Putin, indicating he does not believe Putin intends to cease actions [2] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate, leading Trump to share positive economic performance videos on social media [3] - Trump announced plans to send letters to trade partners to set unilateral tariff rates, with tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% starting August 1 [4] - Trump is planning to host a UFC event at the White House next year to celebrate the 250th anniversary of American independence [5] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill passed the House despite two Republican defections, and Trump is set to sign it [6] - An executive order was signed by Trump to study increasing entrance fees for foreign tourists to U.S. national parks, ensuring priority for American residents [7] Group 2 - Trump indicated a willingness to allow immigrant workers to remain in the U.S. for agricultural work, contingent on employer sponsorship, amid tightening immigration policies and labor shortages in agriculture [8] - Trump stated that a decision on whether Hamas will accept a ceasefire agreement is expected within the next 24 hours [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump is willing to allow immigrants, who are employed and guaranteed by American farmers, to remain in the country [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. labor market** and its implications for the economy, particularly focusing on the **unemployment rate** and its potential impact on market dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments - The **current unemployment rate** in the U.S. is fluctuating between **3.6% and 4.0%**, nearing the threshold that could trigger the **"Summer Rule,"** indicating a risk of economic recession, similar to the market reactions observed in **Q3 2024** [1][2] - The **labor market** has cooled to pre-pandemic levels, with a significant decrease in the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals, suggesting weakened hiring intentions among businesses [1][3] - **Immigration policies** have a dual impact on the job market: initially filling labor shortages but later increasing competition with native workers, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate among immigrants [1][4] - Leading indicators show a continued weakening in employment demand, with key metrics like non-farm payroll data indicating a potential acceleration in labor market cooling in the latter half of the year [1][5] Additional Important Content - The **Trump administration** saw a historic high in immigration detentions, but the overcapacity of detention facilities limited the effectiveness of deportations on the job market [1][8] - The **impact of tariffs** on the U.S. economy and job market is significant, with broader and stronger tariffs potentially leading to a **1% economic shock** and an increase in the unemployment rate by **0.3% to 0.7%** [1][10] - Market expectations suggest that the unemployment rate could reach around **4.5%** by the end of the year, with a possibility of hitting **4.6%**, which may trigger the **Summer Rule** [2][11] - The **Summer Rule** indicates that if the unemployment rate rises by **0.5 percentage points**, it signals a recession, with potential market reactions including stock market declines and increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][12] - If the **Summer Rule** is triggered in the latter half of the year, it could lead to significant market changes, including a drop in stock prices and commodity prices, alongside a rise in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][13] - There are internal divisions within the **Federal Reserve** regarding inflation and employment, with differing views on whether to prioritize inflation control or employment protection [2][14]