日前，特朗普在社交媒体上就直言，鲍威尔早该像欧洲中央银行那样降息了，他总是"又迟又错"，"越早走人越好"。近日，他在接受媒体采访的时候，又再 次说起类似的话，声称如果他想让鲍威尔走人，那鲍威尔很快就得走，因为他现在对鲍威尔很不满意。事实上，这已经不是特朗普第一次因为美联储不降息 而将矛头指向鲍威尔了，早在他第一任期的时候，他就曾要求鲍威尔降息，但当时鲍威尔就没同意。 美联储公开抗旨，不接受特朗普的降息要求，这其中的原因是什么？小布什顾问又送了哪4个字呢？ 特朗普的所谓"对等关税"政策一出，算是捅了马蜂窝了，不仅全球贸易遭了殃，就连美国的盟友都在特朗普的关税大棒威压之下惶恐不安，美国自己也没逃 过，美股狂跌，物价飙升，通胀高企，这些对美国的负面影响丝毫不比那些被美国关税大棒制裁的国家受到影响小。曾在美国前总统小布什任内担任高级顾 问的罗夫近日就撰文怒批特朗普的关税政策，送给特朗普政府"筋疲力尽"4个字。他直言，特朗普第二任期还没满100天，他的关税政策就已经让美国人感到 了"筋疲力尽"，因为他们受到了太多的打击。罗夫甚至不禁发出疑问，特朗普的目标到底是要让贸易伙伴降低对美国商品和服务的关税？还是要用对外国商 品 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: April 24, 2025 [1] - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Gold Closes with a Negative Line. Has the Price Reached the Peak?" [2] Core Viewpoints - Gold prices are under downward pressure due to the rebound of the US dollar and US stocks, profit - taking by long - positions, and increased policy uncertainty [3] - The short - term trend of stock index futures is expected to continue the strong oscillation pattern, while the price is considered too high and is likely to be significantly reduced [7] - In the long - term, the upward logic of gold remains unchanged. After a short and rapid adjustment around the 10 - day moving average, gold will resume rising at a slower pace [11] - Iron ore prices may be supported by short - term replenishment demand during the steel mill's复产 cycle but are constrained by long - term capacity expansion. The short - term trading strategy turns to oscillation with a bullish bias [14] - The demand for glass needs the stimulus effect of the real estate sector or major policies to be fully released. The short - term trading strategy is to view it as an oscillating market [18] - Due to the approaching end of the Brazilian new - season soybean harvest and a bumper harvest, the upward space for domestic soybean prices is limited [22] Section Summaries Hotspot Focus - The US dollar index rose 0.6% to 98.95, and US stocks rebounded, diverting funds from the gold market. Gold prices were also affected by profit - taking and policy uncertainty [3] Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The short - term trend of stock index futures is expected to maintain a strong oscillation pattern, and the price is likely to be significantly reduced [7] Technical Analysis - Gold - In the long - term, the upward logic of gold remains. After a short - term adjustment around the 10 - day moving average, gold will rise again at a slower pace. In the short - term, it faces a technical correction [11] Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Short - term replenishment demand during the steel mill's复产 cycle may support iron ore prices, but long - term capacity expansion is a constraint. The short - term trading strategy turns to oscillation with a bullish bias [14] Technical Analysis - Glass - The demand for glass needs the real estate stimulus or major policies. The short - term trading strategy is to view it as an oscillating market [18] Technical Analysis - Soybean No.1 - Due to the approaching end of the Brazilian new - season soybean harvest and a bumper harvest, the upward space for domestic soybean prices is limited [22]

伴随美国大范围征收进口关税并引发多国报复性反制，全球贸易前景愈发黯淡，资本市场风险重新定价 也令全球金融条件趋紧。金管局预计，2025年新加坡全年GDP增长将放缓至0.0%至2.0%，低于2024年 的4.4%。高外贸依赖度及产业链深度融合使新加坡面临显著外部冲击，整体产出水平预计将低于潜在 增长水平。 核心通胀显著回落政府补贴与内需疲软双重压制物价 通胀方面，MAS核心通胀率在2025年1至2月大幅下降至0.7%，显著低于去年第四季度的1.9%。消费疲 软、成本上升放缓以及政府强化补贴是推动通胀回落的主要原因。金管局将2025年全年核心通胀预期下 调至0.5%至1.5%，CPI总体通胀也同步下调至相同区间。 新华财经新加坡4月14日电 新加坡金融管理局（MAS）14日发布2025年4月货币政策声明，宣布维持新 加坡元名义有效汇率（S$NEER）政策带小幅升值的基调不变，但再次略微下调其升值斜率，以应对外 部经济放缓和通胀持续回落带来的压力。 金管局指出，自今年1月货币政策评估以来，新元汇率在政策带上半区间内波动，尽管全球贸易政策不 确定性上升，但过去三个月的平均水平与此前基本持平。此次政策调整反映出金管局在 ...

Group 1 - New Zealand's central bank has lowered its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.5% as of April 9 [2] - Uruguay's central bank has raised its monetary policy rate by 25 basis points from 9.00% to 9.25% on April 8, citing increased global uncertainty and risks of economic slowdown [3] - The rate hike in Uruguay aims to guide inflation and its expectations towards an annual target of 4.5% [3] Group 2 - A-shares have seen a significant rally, with one index surging by 7% [5] - There are reports of increased buybacks and share repurchases by A-share companies, indicating strong market support [5] - State-owned enterprises in Shanghai and Zhejiang have intervened to stabilize the stock market [5]

Economic Stimulus Demand - The overall stability of the US economy is being challenged by slowing growth, particularly in consumption and manufacturing sectors, prompting calls for interest rate cuts to enhance economic vitality and reduce corporate financing burdens [2] - The expectation is that lowering interest rates will stimulate investment and consumption, thereby accelerating economic growth and preventing a recession [2] Capital Market Volatility - Financial markets are highly sensitive to changes in monetary policy, with Trump's call for lower interest rates potentially impacting global capital market expectations, leading to fluctuations in stocks, bonds, and currency exchange rates [3] - A potential interest rate cut could boost stock prices while adjusting bond yields and currency values, affecting both domestic and global investors and financial institutions [3] Political Campaign Factors - Trump's economic performance is crucial for garnering voter support during a key political campaign phase, with a thriving economy bolstering his chances of re-election [4] - The push for lower interest rates is seen as a strategy to enhance economic activity, thereby increasing public approval ratings [6] International Trade Situation - The complex international trade environment, exacerbated by trade disputes initiated by the Trump administration, has implications for the US economy [7] - Lowering interest rates could decrease the relative value of the dollar, enhancing the competitiveness of US products in international markets and mitigating adverse effects from trade disputes [7] Federal Reserve Independence - The Federal Reserve prioritizes maintaining its independence from political influence, yet Trump's persistent calls for rate cuts exert significant pressure on the institution [8] - The Fed must carefully balance economic conditions with its independence and authority in determining monetary policy direction [8]

Macro Strategy - The March PMI data indicates three characteristics of economic recovery: the pre-positioning of work due to the Spring Festival, better recovery of manufacturing demand compared to supply, and weak consumer service consumption [1][30]. - The manufacturing PMI for March is 50.5%, showing a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, while the service PMI is at 50.3%, also up by 0.3 percentage points [1][30]. - The new order index for manufacturing increased by 0.7 points to 51.8%, indicating stronger demand recovery compared to supply [1][30]. Industry Insights - The report highlights the need for macro policies to be adjusted in response to potential economic pressures in the second quarter, particularly in exports and real estate [1][30]. - The construction industry PMI rose to 53.4%, reflecting seasonal recovery, but remains at a historically low level for this time of year [1][30]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of tariff increases on exports and the ongoing trends in the real estate market [1][30]. Company Analysis - The report provides insights into various companies, including their performance forecasts and investment ratings, such as the significant growth in sales for Lao Pu Gold and the strategic partnerships for Jianghuai Automobile [9][15]. - Companies like Yubiquitous and Geli Pharmaceutical are noted for their innovative product developments and market potential, with investment ratings maintained at "buy" [11][12]. - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals reported a revenue of 275.25 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.75% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 4.553 billion yuan, up 20.82% [14]. Financial Performance - The report indicates that the overall financial performance of companies is under scrutiny, with adjustments made to profit forecasts for several firms based on market conditions and operational challenges [15][19]. - Companies such as China Communications Construction Company and Orient Securities are highlighted for their revenue growth and strategic adjustments in response to market dynamics [22][23]. - The report also notes the importance of cash flow management and cost control in maintaining profitability amid fluctuating market conditions [22][24].