Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a significant decrease in gold ETF holdings and a notable drop in spot gold prices, driven by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and shifting market focus towards U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions [5][6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of June 24, 2025, the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported total holdings of 955.68 tons, a decrease of 1.72 tons from the previous trading day [5]. - The report indicates a downward trend in gold ETF holdings, reflecting changing market dynamics and investor sentiment [2][5]. Group 2: Spot Gold Prices - On June 24, spot gold prices experienced a significant decline, dropping to a low of $3,295.35 per ounce, the lowest level since June 9, before recovering slightly to close at $3,323 per ounce, marking a decrease of $46.02 or 1.37% [5]. - The decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced safe-haven demand following a reported ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which has led the market to perceive the geopolitical conflict as resolved [5]. Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve Policy - Market attention is shifting towards Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming congressional testimony, with expectations that he may signal potential interest rate cuts [5][6]. - Powell indicated that the Fed is in a favorable position to wait for clearer economic signals before adjusting monetary policy, with upcoming data expected to reveal the impact of tariffs on inflation [5][6]. - There are mixed signals within the Fed regarding interest rate cuts, with some members supporting a potential cut in July, while others suggest caution due to inflation concerns [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight overseas market risk appetite recovered due to the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran and Fed Chair Powell's dovish remarks, leading to a rise in US stocks. In China, the National Day parade news and post - market financial consumption - promotion measures helped boost the index. The sustainability of the rebound depends on whether the trading volume of the two markets can continue to expand [1][2][3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Domestic Policy**: Six departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", proposing 19 key measures in six aspects to enhance consumption potential [1]. - **Overseas Situation**: Israel and Iran agreed to a full - scale cease - fire, and Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible early interest rate cut [1][2]. - **Spot Market**: A - share major indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.15% to 3420.57 points, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.3%. Most sectors' indices rose, and the trading volume of the two markets increased to 1.4 trillion yuan. US stocks also rose, with the Nasdaq rising 1.43% to 19912.53 points [2]. - **Futures Market**: The basis of stock index futures slightly recovered but remained at a low level. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both increased [2]. Strategy - The market's upward trend is affected by overseas risk - appetite recovery and domestic policy catalysis. The sustainability of the rebound requires the continuous expansion of trading volume [3]. Macro - economic Charts - Include charts such as the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, and the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends [6][9][10]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and other major indices all rose on June 24, 2025, with the ChiNext Index having the highest increase of 2.3% [12]. - **Market Volume and Balance**: Include charts of the trading volume of the two markets and the margin trading balance [11][12]. Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interest and trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all increased [16]. - **Basis**: The basis of stock index futures showed different changes in different contracts and different delivery months, with some narrowing and some expanding [27]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spreads of stock index futures also showed various changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [33][35].

Economic Situation - The GDP in the first quarter experienced slight declines due to trade impacts, while private domestic final purchases grew by 2.5% [2][3] - The unemployment rate stood at 4.2% in May, with wage growth slowing but still exceeding inflation [2][3] Inflation Situation - The overall PCE and core PCE indicators were slightly above the 2% target, with short-term inflation expectations rising due to tariffs, but long-term expectations remain aligned with the target [4] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate range at 4.25%-4.5% and continues to reduce its balance sheet; the impact of tariffs will depend on their final levels, and the Fed will balance employment and inflation targets while waiting for more data before adjusting policies [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve has maintained its current interest rate of 4.25%-4.50%, indicating a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [10][32] - The U.S. economy shows signs of resilience despite a slowdown, with a robust labor market and a slight adjustment in GDP growth forecasts [10][11] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are contributing to rising inflationary pressures, prompting central banks to reassess their monetary policies [3][14] Major Asset Trends - U.S. Treasury yields have seen slight declines, with the 10-year yield at 4.38% and the 2-year yield at 3.90% [2] - The S&P 500 index has experienced a minor decrease of 0.15%, while the Nasdaq index increased by 0.21% [2] - Gold prices have dropped by 1.95%, while Brent crude oil prices have risen by 4.13% [2] Economic Data Summary - U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9% in May, with core retail sales also declining by 0.3% [18] - New housing starts in the U.S. were reported at 1.256 million units, below expectations of 1.357 million [18] - In the UK, inflation slightly decreased to 3.4%, while the Eurozone saw a rebound in construction output [24][26] Central Bank Actions - The Bank of England has kept its policy rate unchanged, but there are indications of potential rate cuts in August due to internal voting disagreements [11][12] - The Bank of Japan has also maintained its current policy stance, but is facing increasing inflationary pressures, leading to a planned reduction in bond purchases starting next year [13][28] Geopolitical Impact - The report notes that the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has led to increased oil prices and shipping costs, raising concerns about a potential "second inflation" scenario [14] - The report emphasizes the need for central banks to reevaluate their inflation outlooks in light of these geopolitical developments [14]

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Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Brazil indicates that future monetary policy measures may be adjusted and will not hesitate to continue the interest rate hike cycle if deemed appropriate [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank of Brazil is open to adjusting its monetary policy measures in response to economic conditions [1] - There is a clear indication that the Central Bank is prepared to continue raising interest rates if necessary [1]

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