Group 1 - South Korea is unable to provide $350 billion in cash to the U.S. as part of a trade agreement aimed at reducing tariffs from 25% to 15% [3] - The South Korean government is exploring alternative solutions, such as loans and bilateral currency swap arrangements, to mitigate economic impacts [3][5] - The $350 billion investment fund is a core component of the trade agreement, but there are ongoing disagreements regarding its operational structure [5] Group 2 - South Korea's National Security Advisor stated that the proposed cash payment level is not feasible for the country [3] - The South Korean government emphasizes the differences in economic scale between South Korea and Japan, which recently finalized a $550 billion investment commitment [5] - The urgency for South Korea lies in how to raise and manage the $350 billion from the foreign exchange market [5]

Core Viewpoint - South Korea is unable to pay the $350 billion in cash to the U.S. as part of a trade agreement aimed at reducing tariffs, highlighting significant economic constraints and differing expectations between the two nations [2][3]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - A South Korean official stated that the country cannot provide $350 billion in cash to the U.S. to lower tariffs from 25% to 15% as previously agreed upon [3]. - The amount requested by the U.S. represents over 80% of South Korea's foreign exchange reserves, making it an unrealistic demand for the Korean economy [3]. - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce has indicated a preference for cash payments rather than loans for the investment, complicating negotiations [3]. Group 2: Negotiation Stalemate - The negotiations between the U.S. and South Korea have reached a deadlock, with South Korea emphasizing that it cannot accept terms similar to Japan's $550 billion investment commitment due to differences in economic scale [4][5]. - South Korea's National Policy Office Director pointed out that the economic environments of South Korea and Japan are fundamentally different, particularly regarding currency swap arrangements and the status of the yen as a reserve currency [5][6]. - The $350 billion fund is a critical component of the trade agreement, yet there are ongoing disagreements about its operational structure and management [6].

Core Viewpoint - South Korea's National Security Office Chief, Wei Shenglu, stated that the country cannot fulfill the $350 billion investment commitment to the U.S. as suggested by Trump, and is currently seeking alternative solutions, with discussions expected in October [1] Group 1 - South Korea is looking for alternative solutions regarding the $350 billion investment to the U.S. [1] - A trade agreement framework was established between South Korea and the U.S. in July 2025, where the U.S. would lower tariffs on South Korean goods in exchange for the investment [1] - Lee Jae-myung warned that if South Korea complies with the U.S. demands, it could face a situation similar to the 1997 financial crisis [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - This week, natural rubber is expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner. Supply is in the peak season with weakening upward momentum of raw materials. Downstream tire factories have basically completed pre - holiday restocking, and it is difficult for the spot inventory of natural rubber to see a significant reduction. Coupled with the increasing risk - aversion sentiment of funds approaching the holiday and the weakening of the macro - commodity sentiment, it is expected that RU will fluctuate weakly [97]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In the first eight months of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber were 2.906 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%, and its total exports to China were 1.807 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 27% [5]. - In August 2025, the global light - vehicle sales reached 7.2 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, and the cumulative sales from January to August increased by 5% to 59 million units [6]. - On September 24, 2025, the US government officially announced the implementation of the US - EU trade agreement, imposing a 15% tariff on EU - imported cars and auto products since August 1 [6]. - In August 2025, EU passenger - car sales increased by 5.3% year - on - year to 677,786 units, but the cumulative sales in the first eight months decreased by 0.1% year - on - year [7]. 3.2 Price - This week, RU was weak, while the futures prices of standard rubber and smoked sheets rose. On September 26, 2025, the closing price of RU2601 was 15,470 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42%; the closing price of NR2601 was 12,465 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2601 was 172.6 cents/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.52%; the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2601 was 308.3 yen/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.49% [10][12]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: On September 26, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU01 was - 820 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.80% and a year - on - year increase of 43.06%; the 01 - 05 calendar spread was 35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 600.00% and a year - on - year increase of 124.14% [18]. - **Other Spreads**: RU - NR, RU - BR, and RU - JPX RSS3 spreads decreased, while the NR - SGX TSR20 spread increased. The prices of imported rubber in the market decreased this week, and the trading of non - standard basis was light. The spread between whole - milk and Thai - mixed rubber and the spread between 3L and Thai - mixed rubber decreased [19][22][25]. 3.4 Substitute Prices - This week, the overall price of synthetic rubber declined. The supply of butadiene increased, and the cost side lacked driving force. The pre - holiday restocking was coming to an end, and downstream buyers continued to purchase on dips [30]. 3.5 Capital Flows - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased slightly, and the settled funds decreased significantly. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR continued to decline, and the settled funds also declined significantly. On September 26, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was 12.10, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year increase of 10.54%; the virtual - to - physical ratio of NR was 27.26, a month - on - month decrease of 8.82% and a year - on - year increase of 252.19% [33][35]. 3.6 Fundamental Data 3.6.1 Supply - **Weather in Producing Areas**: In Thailand, the rainfall in the southern part was slightly lower than the same period last year, and the rainfall in the northeastern part was at a seasonal high. In China, affected by typhoons, the precipitation in Hainan increased on the 25th and 26th, but the average precipitation in the past month decreased compared with last week. Yunnan is gradually entering the end of the rainy season [38][40]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Raw material prices were differentiated. The price of Thai cup lump rebounded, while the prices of Thai latex, smoked sheets, and Hainan latex decreased [42]. - **Raw Material Spreads**: The spread between Thai latex and cup lump decreased, and the spread between Hainan latex for concentrated latex production and that for whole - milk rubber production increased [50]. - **Upstream Processing Profits**: The overall rubber processing profit improved [51]. - **Delivery Profits**: The delivery profit of whole - milk rubber in Hainan continued to decline, while that in Yunnan increased marginally [56]. - **Exports**: In August, Thailand's natural rubber exports continued to increase month - on - month, but the exports of standard rubber decreased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month. The exports of natural rubber from Thailand to China, Indonesia to China, and Vietnam to China all showed different degrees of growth. In August, China imported 520,800 tons of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and compound rubber), a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39% [62][65][68][72][76][79]. 3.6.2 Demand - **Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory**: Currently, most tire enterprises maintain their previous operating levels. The overall operating rate is slightly adjusted. The tire inventory continues to rebound slightly. During the "National Day" holiday, some enterprises plan to take a 5 - 8 - day holiday, which will have a greater impact on the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises in the next period [85]. - **Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales**: In August, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level year - on - year. In August, the sales volume of heavy trucks continued to recover both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the sales volume of passenger cars increased both year - on - year and month - on - month [86]. - **Highway Transportation Turnover**: In August, the freight turnover of highway transportation improved slightly both year - on - year and month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased year - on - year [89]. 3.6.3 Inventory - **Spot Inventory**: The current natural rubber inventory continues to decline. The inventory in Qingdao continues to decline moderately, the Yunnan rubber inventory shows a slight increase, and the decline in Vietnam is gradually expanding compared with the previous period [91]. - **Futures Inventory**: On September 26, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 149,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 37.78%; the futures inventory of 20 - numbered rubber on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 42,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 67.28% [94].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and South Korea are facing significant challenges, particularly regarding the large investment demands from the U.S. and the potential financial risks for South Korea [1][3][4]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - In July, a verbal trade agreement was reached where the U.S. would reduce tariffs on South Korean goods from 25% to 15%, in exchange for South Korea establishing a $350 billion investment fund to support its companies in the U.S. [3] - Out of the $350 billion, $150 billion is earmarked for the shipbuilding industry, and South Korean private enterprises have committed to an additional $150 billion investment [3]. Group 2: Economic Concerns - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung expressed concerns that fulfilling the U.S. demand for a $350 billion cash investment could lead to a financial crisis similar to that of 1997, given South Korea's foreign reserves of $416.3 billion compared to Japan's $820 billion [3][4]. - The South Korean government is emphasizing that any investment must align with national interests and be commercially viable [3][4]. Group 3: Negotiation Stalemate - The negotiations are currently stalled, with South Korean representatives pushing for the majority of the funds to be provided as loans rather than direct investments [4]. - The recent U.S. immigration enforcement actions against South Korean companies in Georgia have added further uncertainty to South Korean investments in the U.S. [4][6]. Group 4: Visa Issues - The ongoing visa issues for South Korean workers in the U.S. are creating additional complications for investment projects, with South Korean officials urging the U.S. government to resolve these matters promptly [4][6]. - South Korean Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum indicated that without a resolution to the visa issues, substantial progress on investment projects is unlikely [4][6].

Group 1 - The U.S. government announced that new tariffs on pharmaceuticals will not apply to countries with existing trade agreements, maintaining a 15% tariff cap for partners like the EU and Japan [1][2] - President Trump declared a 100% tariff on all brand-name and patented drugs starting October 1, complicating the recently established U.S.-EU pharmaceutical tariff agreement [2][3] - European pharmaceutical companies, including Roche, Novartis, and AstraZeneca, may benefit from exemptions if they have initiated drug production investments in the U.S., but most face new tariff barriers [2][3] Group 2 - The Belgian Pharmaceutical Association expressed concerns that the new tariffs violate the U.S.-EU agreement and could significantly impact multiple EU countries, creating uncertainty for investment decisions [3] - Economic analysts from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley indicated that the tariffs could lead to increased prices for EU goods in the U.S., potentially passing the burden onto American consumers [4] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing growth, with predictions of only 1.25% growth in 2026, significantly lower than the expected 2.8% in 2024, partly due to the impact of tariff policies [4]

Core Insights - UK food and drink export volumes increased by 7.2% to 4.5 billion kilograms in the first half of 2025, with a notable recovery in the EU and double-digit growth in the US [1][2] - The value of UK food and beverage exports reached £12.4 billion ($16.5 billion), marking a 6.8% year-on-year increase, with non-alcoholic exports rising by 8.4% to £8.9 billion [2][3] - Exports to the US surged by 18.9% to £1.4 billion despite a 10% tariff, indicating a competitive advantage in certain food and drink categories [3][4] Export Performance - Shipments to the EU, the UK's largest trading partner, increased by 4.2% in value to £7.1 billion, while exports to non-EU countries rose by 10.6% to £5.3 billion [2][5] - Exports to New Zealand grew by 19.7% following the Australia-New Zealand trade deal, and shipments to India increased by 11.6% to £148.7 million [5][6] Future Outlook - A UK-India free trade agreement signed in July 2025 is anticipated to reduce or eliminate certain Indian tariffs in 2026, potentially boosting growth over the next decade [6] - The Food and Drink Federation (FDF) highlighted the first-half trade performance as "green shoots" after a stagnant previous year, urging collaboration between government and industry to sustain this growth [7]

最新爆料显示，虽然韩国之前在贸易协议中承诺的大举投资远远没有满足特朗普政府的胃口。 据新华社，韩美7月底达成贸易协议框架，根据美国总统特朗普当时的说法，韩国将向美国投资3500亿美元。美东时间9月25日周 四，媒体称，美国商务部长卢特尼克最近与韩国官员会谈时要求，韩国调整协议，在7月达成的协议基础上追加承诺，建议投资规 模向日本协议的5500亿美元靠拢。他还要求韩国提供更多现金而非贷款形式的资金。 一名白宫官员告诉媒体，美国正在努力完善与韩国的协议，美方提出的要求不会对双方此前达成的协议造成"根本性的改变"。而要 是韩国果真按卢特尼克所说增加投资，就意味着投资承诺要上调将近2000亿美元、增幅57%，这并不是一个小数目。 上述美国提出调整协议的消息传出后，韩元兑美元跌幅收窄至0.35%，美股盘初一度跌0.6%的在美上市韩国ETF跌幅也收窄，美股 早盘尾声时曾小幅转涨。 美国对韩国贸易协议的调整要求凸显了特朗普政府在完成口头贸易协议过程中面临的挑战。韩国官员私下向盟友抱怨美方"移动球 门柱"，而美方则坚持要求韩国接受与日本类似的协议条款。 据新华社援引韩媒，韩国总统李在明上周表示，如果在没有保障措施的情况下接受 ...

印度尼西亚和越南已经与美国就新的贸易协议进行了谈判，从而获得了更 低的关税待遇。 但根据联合国开发计划署发布的估计数据，作为美国第六大出口国，越南 可能会因为其商品被征收20%的关税而每年损失250亿美元。因此，越南将成 为该地区受影响最严重的经济体。 周三，格里尔首次与东盟成员国进行了会晤。这些成员国此前大多分别与 美国就关税问题进行了谈判。 但在这种背景下，各行业之间可能会形成更加统一的立场。因为像半导体 这样的产业面临着更高的关税风险，而这些产业对泰国、马来西亚和越南等国 家的经济贡献巨大。 （原标题：美国正在与更多东盟国家商讨贸易协议） 据曼谷邮报9月25日报道,据美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔表示，美国预计将 在未来几个月内与更多东南亚国家敲定贸易协议。 他是在周三与东南亚国家联盟的成员国经济部长们开会时发表这些评论 的。该联盟的成员国普遍担心，美国的关税会对他们的经济产生严重影响。东 南亚国家联盟共有10个成员国，这些国家在经济上高度依赖出口。 该地区大多数国家的关税税率被设定为19%或20%；老挝和缅甸的关税税 率则为40%，而新加坡的关税税率仅为10%。 格里尔表示，与相关国家就这些关税问题进行的 ...

Group 1: UN Incident - President Trump expressed concerns over three "very sinister" incidents that occurred at the UN, including a malfunctioning escalator, a broken teleprompter, and audio issues during his speech [2][3] - Trump has requested an investigation from the UN Secretary-General and emphasized the need to preserve security footage from the escalator incident [2][3] - The White House press secretary suggested that these incidents may not be coincidental and indicated that the Secret Service is involved in the investigation [3] Group 2: Trade Agreement with EU - The Trump administration announced a formal implementation of a trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU-imported cars and automotive products starting August 1 [4][5] - This new tariff is significantly higher than the previous 2.5% tariff on EU cars before the global tariff imposition, indicating a substantial increase for the EU [5] - The EU's response to the agreement has been largely negative, with leaders expressing disappointment and viewing it as a capitulation to US demands [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators in Germany - The Munich-based Ifo Institute reported a decline in Germany's business climate index from 88.9 to 87.7, marking the first drop since January [6] - Key sectors such as manufacturing, services, and trade have shown decreased performance, with significant declines noted in the services sector, particularly in transportation and logistics [6] - Analysts suggest that the decline in business sentiment reflects growing concerns over the German economy's recovery, exacerbated by US tariffs and a stronger euro [6]