Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the U.S. government's tariff policies on global trade and the economy, highlighting the ongoing negotiations and the reactions from various countries and economic experts [1][5][9]. Group 1: Tariff Policies and Negotiations - President Trump announced that over 150 countries may face a tariff increase of 10% to 15% if they do not reach favorable trade agreements with the U.S. [1] - The U.S. plans to impose tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% on various trade partners, with specific rates for countries like Japan (25%), Thailand (36%), and Canada (35%) [3][5]. - The European Union has prepared a countermeasure list worth €72 billion, including products like Boeing aircraft and automobiles, in response to the proposed tariffs [5][9]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Financial markets showed a muted response to the tariff announcements, with slight increases in major indices such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 [1]. - Economic data indicates rising inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 2.7% year-on-year in June, suggesting that tariffs are contributing to upward price pressures [8]. - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned that the tariff policies could disproportionately impact the least developed countries, predicting a potential 54% decline in exports for these economies [9]. Group 3: Expert Opinions on Negotiation Strategies - Experts suggest that the high-pressure negotiation tactics employed by the Trump administration may backfire, leading to distrust among trade partners and complicating future agreements [6]. - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade policies is causing businesses to hesitate in decision-making, which could further suppress international trade [9].

据新华社，当地时间7月16日，美国总统特朗普表示，白宫将向150多个国家/地区发出信函，警告其若 未能与美国达成更有利的贸易协议，这些国家可能面临10%至15%的关税上调，信函将说明适用的关税 税率。 特朗普补充道，所有收到通知的国家"情况都会是一样的"，这些贸易伙伴"并非主要经济体，且贸易规 模相对有限"。 金融市场对此反应相对平淡。当日收盘数据显示，纳斯达克指数微涨0.25%，标普500指数上升0.32%， 道琼斯工业平均指数涨幅为0.53%。 全球经济咨询公司BCA研究首席全球策略师贝瑞钦（Peter Berezin）在研讨会上对第一财经记者表示， 市场尚未充分计入潜在关税政策带来的负面冲击，因为当前市场并不预期这些关税会真正实施。 "股票市场并不擅长为尾部风险定价。如果某件事的发生概率只有5%到10%，市场通常会忽略；但当概 率上升到30%或40%时，市场会突然高度关注，呈现非线性反应。如果情况继续发展，比如欧洲开始报 复性关税，或者市场意识到特朗普需要这些关税来增加财政收入，且对大多数国家征收20%-25%的关 税，那么股票市场可能会出现显著下跌。"他称。 胡捷说："关税上调并不意味着谈判窗口的关闭 ...

日本政府周四公布的数据显示，今年上半年，日本陷入了2.2万亿日元的贸易逆差。这主要是因为美国 总统特朗普的关税政策对日本出口造成了冲击。 上个月，日本的出口额同比下降0.5%，此前5月份已下降1.7%。其中，日本对美国的出口在6月份下降 了11%，汽车出口更是暴跌26.7%。此前，美国已于今年4月对汽车进口加征了25%的关税。 与此同时，日本对中国的出口也下降了近5%。对墨西哥的出口下降了近20%，墨西哥是日本汽车制造 商在北美的重要汽车组装中心。特朗普已将上调进口关税的实施日期推迟至8月1日，以便为谈判争取时 间，但到目前为止，双方尚未达成任何协议。 上个月，日本出口总额接近9.2万亿日元，这是连续第二个月出现下滑。随着进口小幅增长0.2%，当月 贸易顺差为1530亿日元，而5月份则出现了6376亿日元的贸易逆差。 今年上半年，日本出口总额达到53.4万亿日元，增长3.6%；进口总额为55.6万亿日元，增长1.3%。 日本和美国一直在进行贸易谈判，日本官员强调日本是美国的重要盟友。海关数据显示，2024年日本近 五分之一的出口流向美国，因此达成一项贸易协议对日本经济至关重要。 特朗普政府一直关注大米，这个领 ...

据媒体报道，欧盟在与美国进行贸易谈判期间搁置对埃隆·马斯克旗下X平台的调查。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Overnight, Trump said he would not consider firing the Fed Chairman for the time being, easing market concerns, boosting risk appetite, and causing oil prices to rebound. Meanwhile, the decline in EIA crude oil inventories also supported oil prices. However, the accumulation of gasoline and refined oil in the downstream and the decline in gasoline production have worried the market about the lack of optimism in summer peak demand, limiting the upside of oil prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Short - term trading is expected to be in the range of 513 - 523, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Trump said he doesn't plan to fire the Fed Chairman, EU is ready to impose tariffs on $836 billion of US goods if trade talks fail, and gasoline demand decline during the summer driving season is disappointing. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On July 16, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.22 per barrel, and the basis was 8.60 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures, a neutral situation [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 83.9 barrels in the week ending July 11, contrary to the expected decrease of 163.7 barrels; EIA inventory decreased by 385.9 barrels in the week ending July 11, more than the expected decrease of 55.2 barrels; Cushing area inventory increased by 21.3 barrels in the week ending July 11. As of July 16, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 451.7 barrels. The overall situation is bullish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is near the moving average, a bearish signal [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 8, the main position of WTI crude oil was long, with a decrease in long positions; the main position of Brent crude oil was long, with an increase in long positions. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil decreased by - 0.50, - 0.46, - 0.80, and - 2.24 respectively, with decline rates of - 0.72%, - 0.69%, - 0.15%, and - 3.09% [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil decreased by - 0.54, - 0.46, - 1.87, - 1.89, and - 2.28 respectively, with decline rates of - 0.75%, - 0.69%, - 2.59%, - 2.73%, and - 3.15% [9]. 2. Recent News - Trump's potential replacement of the Fed Chairman caused market fluctuations, but he later said there was no current plan. Market participants have different views on this event. The EU is ready to impose tariffs on $836 billion of US goods if trade talks fail. Trump also mentioned possible tariff rates for Japan and a potential trade agreement with India [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, trade relations between the US and other economies remain tense, and there is a cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **API Inventory Trend**: From May 2 to July 11, API inventory showed fluctuations, with an increase of 83.9 barrels in the week ending July 11 [10]. - **EIA Inventory Trend**: From May 9 to July 11, EIA inventory also fluctuated, with a decrease of 385.9 barrels in the week ending July 11 [14]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: From May 6 to July 8, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds showed fluctuations, with a decrease of 25,319 positions on July 8 compared to July 1 [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: From May 6 to July 8, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds also fluctuated, with an increase of 55,630 positions on July 8 compared to July 1 [19].

在与美国的贸易谈判中，印度的目标是获得比印尼更低的关税。 （印度《铸币报》） ...

加拿大总理卡尼：（谈及软木木材问题）是与美国谈判中的首要优先事项，希望能在解决其他贸易问题 的同时一并达成协议。 ...

欧盟发言人：欧盟委员会副主席谢夫乔维奇前往华盛顿进行贸易谈判。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. capital markets, trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, and the technology sector. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment and Small Positive News** The market is currently experiencing small positive news that lacks concrete outcomes, leading to a mixed sentiment among investors. Despite some minor positive developments, the market did not reflect these on the following Friday, with two out of three major indices showing slight declines and trading volumes decreasing slightly [1] 2. **High-Level Negotiations Impacting Capital Markets** Upcoming high-level negotiations between the U.S. and China are expected to address sensitive issues such as tariffs, technology restrictions, and rare earth exports. There is a significant probability that positive news may emerge from these discussions, driven by the U.S.'s need for favorable outcomes to stabilize its situation amidst internal and external turmoil [2][4] 3. **Political Climate and Its Effects** The political climate, including attacks on former President Trump and discussions about forming a third political party, is creating a chaotic environment. This situation may compel the U.S. administration to seek victories, such as successful trade negotiations with China, to divert attention from domestic issues [3][4] 4. **Potential Tariff Adjustments** There is speculation regarding the possibility of further tariff reductions, particularly on previously imposed tariffs exceeding 30%. Any concessions from the U.S. side could positively influence market sentiment in China, especially in the technology sector [5] 5. **U.S. Employment Data and Market Reactions** Recent U.S. employment data exceeded market expectations, contributing to a positive reaction in the stock market. However, there are concerns about the reliability of this data in accurately reflecting the employment situation, raising questions about the sustainability of the market's upward movement [6][7] 6. **High Valuations and Market Risks** The U.S. stock market is currently at a high valuation, which poses risks of downward corrections. The market's upward movement appears to lack substantial positive drivers, leading to a divided state in U.S. assets, particularly in the bond market [7] 7. **Sector-Specific Opportunities** There are emerging opportunities in sectors such as technology and military industries, with reports of new overseas orders. The recent warming of international relations may enhance market sentiment and trading volumes, particularly benefiting the technology sector [8][9] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The potential for a rebound in market sentiment is linked to the outcomes of U.S.-China negotiations, which could lead to increased trading volumes and sustained interest in specific sectors, especially technology [9]

Group 1 - The speech by Shigeru Ishiba on July 9, 2025, reflects a strong discontent with U.S. policies and calls for Japan to reduce its reliance on the U.S. [3][17] - The U.S. announced a 25% tariff on Japan and 13 other countries, targeting key sectors such as automotive, steel, and electronics, which are crucial for Japan's export economy [8][12] - Japan's automotive exports to the U.S. totaled $117.1 billion in 2024, accounting for 34% of its total exports to the U.S., with potential job impacts affecting approximately 5.6 million people [8][9] Group 2 - The trade negotiations between Japan and the U.S. are stalled due to conflicting economic models, with Japan advocating for investment prioritization while the U.S. demands a reduction in trade surplus and increased imports of U.S. goods [12][16] - Japan's steel exports to the U.S. fell by 20.6% year-on-year as of May 2025, indicating significant pressure on its foundational industries [13] - The U.S. has also pressured Japan to open its agricultural market further, which threatens Japan's domestic agricultural interests and political stability [11][19] Group 3 - Ishiba's firm stance is influenced by domestic political pressures, with his cabinet's approval rating at 24% and the ruling party's support at 19% ahead of the upcoming Senate elections [17][19] - The U.S. demands for Japan to increase defense spending to 3.5% of GDP are seen as excessive and beyond Japan's fiscal capacity [11][23] - Japan's trust in the U.S. has significantly declined, with only 22% of the population expressing trust in the U.S. as of June 2025, marking the lowest level since 2000 [23][25] Group 4 - Japan is actively seeking to improve relations with China, which has become its largest trading partner with a bilateral trade volume of $102.49 billion in 2024, as a strategy to counterbalance U.S. pressures [27][29] - The Japanese government has shown restraint in territorial disputes, indicating a focus on stabilizing relations with China amidst U.S. trade tensions [27][29] - The ongoing trade war and Japan's diplomatic strategies will significantly influence the geopolitical landscape in the Asia-Pacific region [31]