Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic growth and maintain financial stability, with a focus on key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - In 2026, the PBOC will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations [5] - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans are approximately 3.1%, with social financing costs remaining low [3] - There is still room for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates this year [5] Group 2: Financial Support Focus Areas - Financial institutions will be guided to enhance support for expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [7] - A total of 500 billion yuan will be allocated for consumer services and pension re-loans to meet diverse financial needs in the consumption sector [7] - The quota for re-loans for technological innovation and technological transformation will be increased to 1.2 trillion yuan, promoting the development of the bond market's "technology board" [7] Group 3: Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - The PBOC aims to improve the accessibility and convenience of financing for small and micro enterprises, increasing the re-loan and rediscount quota for agricultural and small enterprises by 500 billion yuan, totaling 4.35 trillion yuan [9] - A dedicated 1 trillion yuan re-loan for private enterprises will be established to specifically support small private enterprises [9] - Financial institutions will be encouraged to issue financial bonds for small and micro enterprises and improve the credit enhancement system for private small and medium-sized enterprises [9] Group 4: Internationalization and Payment Systems - The PBOC will continue to build a multi-channel, comprehensive, safe, and efficient cross-border payment system for the renminbi [11] - There will be an emphasis on enhancing international cooperation in cross-border payments and actively participating in international financial governance [11] - The PBOC will strengthen regulatory capabilities to match high-level openness and firmly safeguard national financial security [11]

导语： 2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年。中国人民银行明确提出，将继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活运用降准、降息等多种政策工 具，保持社会融资条件总体宽松，并已率先推出八大政策举措，以精准对接重点领域融资需求。围绕货币政策走向，多位专家就如何延续该 政策取向及其重要意义发表了深刻见解。分析普遍认为，保持适度宽松的货币环境有助于稳定市场信心、支持实体经济持续恢复。 与此同 时，2026年全球主要经济体的货币政策趋势亦成为焦点，各方对其潜在路径及外溢影响进行了前瞻性探讨。 2026如何继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策？ 中国首席经济学家论坛研究院院长、中欧国际工商学院教授 盛松成 降准与降息均需稳步推进，但降准优于降息 2026降准优于降息。 在我国当前国情下，降准的适配性和积极效应更为突出。降准能增加商业银行可自主支配的资金，更好地配 合积极的财政政策——在我国宏观调控体系中，财政政策发挥主导作用，货币政策则承担协同配合职能，二者缺一不可。我国大部 分国债和地方政府债由商业银行持有，降准可使商业银行获得充足资金配置政府债券，实现财政政策与货币政策的高效联动。 我国不具备持续大幅降息的基础 ， 核心原因在于我国消 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic stability and reasonable price recovery during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5][14]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Financial Growth - By 2025, China's financial total is expected to grow reasonably, with a social financing scale increase of 8.3% year-on-year and a broad money supply growth of 8.5%, both significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate [2]. - The PBOC will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations [5][7]. Group 2: Financial Market Stability - The financial market is operating stably, with the RMB maintaining basic stability against a basket of currencies, and the 10-year government bond yield stabilizing around 1.8% to 1.9% [4]. - The PBOC aims to keep liquidity ample, ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations [7][14]. Group 3: Support for Key Sectors - In 2026, the PBOC plans to increase the quota for re-lending for technological innovation and technological transformation from 800 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan, enhancing support for key areas such as domestic demand expansion and small and medium-sized enterprises [8]. - The PBOC will also increase the re-lending and rediscounting quota for agricultural and small enterprises by 500 billion yuan to 4.35 trillion yuan, with a dedicated 1 trillion yuan for private enterprises [10]. Group 4: Internationalization and Open Financial Services - The PBOC will continue to promote high-level openness in the financial services industry and financial markets while advancing the internationalization of the RMB in 2026 [11]. - Efforts will be made to build a multi-channel, comprehensive, safe, and efficient cross-border payment system for the RMB, enhancing international cooperation in cross-border payments [13]. Group 5: Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Mechanisms - The PBOC will improve the market-oriented interest rate formation, regulation, and transmission mechanisms, ensuring smooth transmission from central bank policy rates to market benchmark rates [16]. - The PBOC will also enhance the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, maintaining the decisive role of the market while preventing excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [16].

金融改革创新也呈现新亮点。全省通过财政增信和数据增信，探索"三项价值"信用贷款，有效缓解了科 技企业、中小微企业等主体的融资难题。明示企业贷款综合融资成本试点工作累计完成8900余笔，涉及 贷款超800亿元。此外，多项跨境金融和债券市场创新试点政策落地湖北，全年发行科技创新债券251亿 元，为打造科技创新高地提供了金融支撑。 政策效能得到充分发挥。2025年末，全省支农支小再贷款、再贴现余额达1146亿元，同比增长50%，全 年累计发放政策资金2017亿元，创历史新高。同时，金融机构紧抓增量政策契机，加速配套贷款投放， 有力支持了扩大消费、完善基础设施和产业升级等重点领域。（记者胡祎、通讯员贾晟） 数据显示，2025年末，全省金融机构资产规模总额达12.9万亿元，同比增长7.27%。本外币各项贷款余 额9.38万亿元，同比增长7.73%，增速高于全国平均水平1个百分点以上，与湖北名义经济增速更好匹 配。融资成本持续下降，全省企业贷款平均利率为3.09%，同比下降43个基点。 信贷结构优化的"底色"更实。全省扎实做好科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融和数字金融"五 篇大文章"。截至2025年11月末，相关领 ...

| 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | shenyb@sywggh.com.cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | JL | | | | | | J | | | 1月 | | | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | 前1日收盘价 | 1367.0 | | 1131.5 | 1203.0 | 1863.0 | 1688.0 | 1758. 0 | | 前2日收盘价 | 1366. 5 | | 1129.0 | 1203.0 | 1872. 0 | 1683. 5 | 1758. 5 | | 煮跌 | Eil 0. 5 | | 2.5 | 0. 0 | -9.0 | 4.5 | -0.5 | | 煮跌幅 | 0. 04% સ્ત | | 0. 22% | 0. 00% | -0. 48% | 0. 27% | -0. 03% | | 成交堂 | 10 1472 | | 736188 ...

周四 A 股三大指数集体收涨，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.14%，深成指收 涨 0.5%，创业板指收涨 1.01%。沪深两市成交额 26914.89 亿元。申 万行业方面，建筑材料、国防军工、石油石化领涨，美容护理、银行、 医药生物领跌；概念板块方面，国产航母、可燃冰、成飞概念涨幅居 前，科创次新股、光刻胶、国家大基金持股跌幅居前。港股方面，恒 生指数收涨 0.17%，恒生科技指数收涨 0.28%；海外方面，美国三大 指数集体收涨，道指收涨 0.63%，标普 500 收涨 0.55%，纳指收涨 0.91%。 【重要新闻】 【央行行长潘功胜表示，2026 年将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策， 灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，今年 降准降息还有一定的空间】要继续维护好金融市场的平稳运行。做好 预期管理，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。加强债券 市场、外汇市场、货币市场、票据市场、黄金市场监督管理。建立在 特定情景下向非银机构提供流动性的机制性安排。继续用好支持资本 市场的两项货币政策工具，支持资本市场稳定发展。 市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_Mee ...

山东还完善首贷培植服务体系，指导金融机构建立首次贷款中心和首贷网点，组建首贷培植储备库，围 绕首贷、中期流贷、信用贷、续贷等关键环节优化"四贷联动"集成服务体系，推动贷款覆盖面持续扩 大。代金奎说："剔除重复后，去年12月末，全省共有31万户企业主体得到贷款支持，比年初增加3.3万 户。" （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经济南1月23日电（记者贾云鹏）1月23日，中国人民银行山东省分行举行2025年山东省金融统计 数据新闻发布会。记者从会上获悉，2025年，山东金融运行呈现"量稳、价降、面扩"的良好态势，为全 省加快打造北方地区经济重要增长极营造了良好的货币金融环境。 "我们精准传导适度宽松的货币政策，深化金融'五篇大文章'山东实践，稳步提升对重点领域的信贷支 持力度。"中国人民银行山东省分行调查统计处二级调研员代金奎说，从金融总量看，去年12月末，山 东省社会融资规模、本外币贷款、本外币存款余额分别为25.9万亿元、16.3万亿元、19.0万亿元，同比 分别增长9.0%、8.2%、9.1%，增速分别快于全国0.7个、2.0个、0.1个百分点。 同时，融资成本稳中有降。山东第一时间落实政策利率、公积金贷款利率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to support economic stability and growth, particularly in key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) [2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - In 2025, the social financing scale increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and the broad money supply grew by 8.5%, both significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate [3]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans was approximately 3.1% in December, reflecting a low financing cost environment [3]. - The PBOC plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [5]. Group 2: Structural Policy Measures - The PBOC has introduced various structural monetary policy tools, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools and an increase in the re-lending quota for agricultural and small enterprises to 4.35 trillion yuan [6]. - The PBOC aims to optimize the design and management of structural monetary policy tools to better support major strategies and key areas [5][6]. Group 3: Financial Market Stability - The exchange rate of the renminbi against a basket of currencies has remained stable, and the bond market has developed healthily, with the 10-year government bond yield stabilizing around 1.8% to 1.9% [4]. - The PBOC emphasizes maintaining the stability of the financial market and managing expectations effectively [6]. Group 4: Macro-Prudential Management - The PBOC is focused on constructing a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to support high-quality financial development [7]. - Key areas of focus include monitoring systemic financial risks, expanding the coverage of macro-prudential management, and enhancing the standardization and effectiveness of macro-prudential management tools [13][14]. Group 5: Support for Key Sectors - The PBOC has allocated 500 billion yuan for consumer services and elderly care re-lending, and increased the quota for technology innovation and technical transformation re-lending to 1.2 trillion yuan [18][19]. - The PBOC is enhancing support for SMEs by increasing re-lending quotas and improving financing accessibility for small and private enterprises [19][21].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to enhance financial services for high-quality economic development while implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support stable growth and financial market stability by 2025 [1][2]. Monetary Policy Implementation - In 2025, the social financing scale is expected to grow by 8.3%, and the broad money supply is projected to increase by 8.5%, both significantly exceeding nominal GDP growth [2]. - The PBOC will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [2][3]. Structural Policy Measures - The PBOC plans to optimize the design and management of structural monetary policy tools, enhancing support for key strategic areas and weak links [3]. - Specific measures include lowering interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and increasing the quotas for rural and small enterprise loans [3][10]. Financial Market Stability - The PBOC emphasizes maintaining the stability of the financial market, managing expectations, and ensuring the RMB exchange rate remains stable [4][5]. - The bond market is expected to develop healthily, with the 10-year government bond yield stabilizing around 1.8% to 1.9% [2]. Macro-Prudential Management - The PBOC aims to construct a comprehensive macro-prudential management system, focusing on the relationship between macroeconomic operations and financial risks [6][7]. - Key tasks include enhancing monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks and expanding the coverage of macro-prudential management to new areas such as internet finance [6]. International Financial Cooperation - The PBOC is committed to advancing global financial governance reforms and international financial cooperation, promoting a fair and inclusive global financial governance system [7][8]. - Efforts include enhancing the cross-border payment system for RMB and participating in international macro policy coordination [8]. Support for Key Sectors - The PBOC will guide financial institutions to support domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises, with specific measures to enhance consumer finance and support for technology and small businesses [9][10]. - A dedicated 500 billion yuan service for consumption and elderly care loans will be established, alongside increased quotas for technology innovation loans [10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price showed a volatile upward trend this week, with a weekly increase of 24.16% and an amplitude of 27.29%. As of January 23, 2026, the closing price of the main contract was 181,520 yuan/ton [7]. - In terms of the macro - environment, the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [7]. - In terms of fundamentals, the lithium ore quotation continued to strengthen, and smelters had sufficient raw material inventories and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The supply of lithium salt plants increased with the rise in lithium prices, but as the long holiday approached, some smelters might enter the maintenance period, and production might decrease. The downstream demand for pre - holiday stockpiling increased, and the spot market trading sentiment improved [7]. - The overall lithium carbonate fundamentals are expected to gradually shift to a stage of slightly reduced supply and slightly increased demand, and industrial inventories will continue to decline. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate showed a volatile upward trend on the weekly line, with a price increase of 24.16% and an amplitude of 27.29%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 181,520 yuan/ton [7]. - **Outlook**: The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. The lithium ore price is strong, smelters have sufficient raw materials. Supply may decrease as some smelters enter maintenance before the holiday, while downstream pre - holiday stockpiling demand is rising [7]. - **Viewpoint**: Lightly - position short - term long positions at low prices, and control risks [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of January 23, 2026, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract was 181,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 35,320 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,880 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11,540 yuan/ton [12]. - **Spot Market**: As of January 23, 2026, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 171,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 13,000 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 10,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 22,320 yuan/ton [18]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of January 23, 2026, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 1,935 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 6.9628, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1% [22]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of January 20, 2026, the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 16,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,850 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 7,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 750 yuan/ton [27]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,988.66 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,933.47 tons (8.77%), and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. The monthly export volume was 911.898 tons, a month - on - month increase of 152.66 tons (20.11%), and a year - on - year increase of 45.97%. The monthly output was 56,820 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,840 tons (5.26%), and a year - on - year increase of 50.08%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [33]. - **Demand Side** - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: As of January 23, 2026, the average price was 140,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 yuan/ton. As of December 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 233,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,100 tons (0.91%), and a year - on - year increase of 44.19% [36]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 52,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5,300 yuan/ton. As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 269,330 tons, a month - on - month increase of 440 tons (0.16%), and a year - on - year increase of 32.48%. The monthly operating rate was 60%, a month - on - month decrease of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 6% [39]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of December 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 60,430 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,090 tons (1.77%), and a year - on - year increase of 16.26%. The monthly operating rate was 50%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 continued to strengthen [44]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,030 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 180 tons (1.76%), and a year - on - year increase of 1.52%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 52,500 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [49]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 280 tons (1.74%), and a year - on - year increase of 118.72%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 400,500 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [52]. - **Application Side** - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of December 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 47.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45% and a year - on - year increase of 7.01%. The monthly production was 1,718,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 8.62%; the monthly sales were 1,710,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 6.2%. The cumulative export volume was 2.615 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 103.66% [55][59]. 3.5 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium or discount of the synthetic underlying is - 0.41, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option strategy [64].