Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, dropping over $100 in a single day and breaking the psychological barrier of $4000, is attributed to a combination of factors including easing global trade tensions and profit-taking after a significant price surge [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices are currently hovering around $3990, with New York futures slightly above $4000, while domestic prices in China have also seen declines [3]. - The immediate cause of the price drop is the positive developments in US-China trade negotiations, which have reduced market risk aversion [3]. - The US dollar index has rebounded to approximately 98.77, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold and diminishing its appeal [5]. - Global central banks continue to purchase gold, with a net acquisition of 120 tons in October, a 23% year-on-year increase, providing a solid support for gold prices [7]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The market is currently engaged in a fierce battle around the $4000 mark, with critical support levels identified between $3970 and $3980 [7]. - If the price breaks below these levels, further declines to the $3945-$3950 range may occur, while resistance is seen at $4030-$4040 [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Upcoming key events, such as the US non-farm payroll data release, could significantly influence market sentiment and gold prices [9]. - Analysts suggest that the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut remains strong, which could reignite bullish sentiment for gold if realized [5][11]. - Historical patterns indicate that significant price corrections in gold have often been followed by rebounds, suggesting that current adjustments may be within a reasonable range [11]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment - Consumer sentiment in gold retail has shifted to a more cautious stance, with some buyers opting to wait rather than purchase at high prices [13]. - The volatility index for gold has risen, indicating increased market uncertainty and prompting some financial institutions to raise trading margins [13]. - Institutional attitudes are shifting, with a reduction in net long positions in COMEX gold futures, suggesting some speculative funds are withdrawing [16]. Group 5: Broader Economic Context - The divergence between international gold prices and A-share gold concept stocks indicates differing investor sentiments and economic expectations in the Chinese market [16]. - The interplay of geopolitical risks, economic data releases, and central bank policies continues to create a complex environment for gold pricing [17].

| Millio | >国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月28日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属延续回调,国际金价跌破4000美元。中美就稳妥解决多项重要经贸议题形成初步共识，美国和多 个国家也相继达成部分贸易协议,避险情绪有所降温,贵金属或将迎来月度级别调整构筑高位震荡平台，为 未来走势提供基础。贵金属中长期逻辑稳固,短期波动风险较高,建议耐心等待企稳后再参与机会。本周重 点关注美联储议息会议和APEC领导人峰会。 ★凯投宏观:下调黄金价格预期,预计到2026年底黄金价格将跌至每盎司3,500美元。 ★路透调查:预计2026年黄金均价为每盎司4275美元，白银均价为每盎司50美元。 ★菲律宾央行官员：现在是时候在黄金上获利了结。菲律宾央行 ...

Core Insights - Gold and silver prices have experienced significant volatility, with gold briefly surpassing $4000/oz before dropping below $3900/oz, marking a decline of over 2% [1] - The World Gold Council's strategist suggests that a deeper correction in gold prices could be beneficial, with a potential target of $3500/oz being considered healthy for the market [1] - HSBC's commodity outlook report indicates that gold's upward momentum may continue until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases, ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S., and expectations of further monetary easing, with a target price of $5000/oz [1] Market Analysis - Recent declines in gold prices are attributed to a reduction in short-term risk aversion and easing liquidity pressures in the silver market, leading to profit-taking among investors [2] - Factors such as the potential U.S. government shutdown, global trade uncertainties, and credit issues in the U.S. banking sector have contributed to the current market adjustments [2] - The silver market has seen reduced liquidity pressures following inventory replenishment, which has also negatively impacted gold prices [2] - Despite short-term adjustments, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with recommendations for investors to adopt a "buy on dips" strategy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The easing of trade tensions has alleviated market concerns, leading to a decline in gold prices as risk aversion diminishes. The market is preparing for a series of earnings reports from major tech companies and policy statements from global central banks, causing a pause in the record rally of major global stock markets [1]. Market Trends - U.S. stock index futures are collectively down, with the S&P 500 futures down 0.05%. The Nasdaq 100 futures decreased by 0.02%, and the Dow Jones futures also fell by 0.02% [2][3]. - European stock indices opened lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index down 0.3%, the German DAX index down 0.2%, and the French CAC 40 index down 0.4%. The UK FTSE 100 index saw a slight increase of 0.15% [3]. - Asian stock indices experienced a collective decline, with the South Korean Composite Stock Price Index down 0.8% and the Nikkei 225 index down 0.24% [3]. Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.13%, settling at 98.7, while the Japanese yen strengthened, reaching an intra-day high of 151.95 against the dollar, up 0.6% [2][3]. - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased by 1 basis point to 3.97% [3]. - Spot gold prices fell over 1.1%, currently at $3,934 per ounce, following a previous peak of $4,380 per ounce. Analysts predict that gold prices may drop to $3,800 per ounce in the next three months due to changing market dynamics and potential trade agreements [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent drop in gold prices below $4,000 is attributed to a correction after a rapid increase, with the market showing signs of overbuying. Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing central bank purchases and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices recently peaked at $4,380 before experiencing a significant drop, indicating a typical market correction after a rapid rise [3]. - The decline in gold prices is linked to reduced risk aversion, particularly following initial progress in U.S.-China trade relations, leading to a withdrawal of speculative short-term investments [3]. Group 2: Long-term Investment Strategy - Investors holding gold should not panic and sell, as the current price drop is seen as a risk release rather than a trend reversal. The World Gold Council considers prices above $3,500 as high [3]. - New investors are advised to wait for market stabilization and to monitor Federal Reserve policies and risk sentiment before making investment decisions [3][4].

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in the gold market are driven by changing risk sentiment and macroeconomic policy expectations, leading to intense market dynamics [1] - On Monday, gold prices fell by 3.2%, dropping below the psychological threshold of $4000 per ounce, marking a new low since October 10 [1] - Analysts noted that rising U.S. Treasury yields have diminished the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [1] Group 2 - On Tuesday, gold prices showed signs of stabilization, rebounding by 0.57% to $4004.26 per ounce, despite being down from the year's high of $4380 per ounce [1] - The year-to-date increase in gold prices remains over 50%, indicating long-term resilience in the market [1] - This performance is attributed to ongoing gold purchases by central banks and investor concerns over global fiscal deficits, which have driven demand for gold as a hedge against currency depreciation [1] Group 3 - Professional institutions are adopting a cautious stance regarding recent market volatility, with experts advising patience before making tactical investment decisions [4] - The World Gold Council's market strategist indicated that central bank gold purchases have slowed compared to previous peaks, suggesting that a more thorough price adjustment could benefit market health [4] - Citigroup's analysts predict that gold prices may face further adjustments in the coming months, potentially targeting around $3800 per ounce due to weakening upward momentum and reduced short-term risk demand [4] Group 4 - The macroeconomic environment suggests that the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in its upcoming policy meeting, marking the second consecutive rate cut [4] - While a loose monetary policy environment typically supports gold, the recent rapid rise in U.S. Treasury yields has temporarily offset this positive impact [4] - Anticipated changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership are adding uncertainty to the global asset allocation landscape, which is being closely monitored by the market [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various financial and commodity futures, including financial derivatives (financial futures, precious metals), shipping indices, and multiple commodity futures (non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals, etc.). It provides insights into market trends, influencing factors, and offers corresponding operation suggestions based on the analysis of each sector. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The macro sentiment improved, and stock indices rose across the board. A - shares opened higher and increased in volume. The four major stock index futures rose with the index, and the basis premium narrowed. The market was boosted by domestic economic data and Sino - US trade talks. It is recommended to try light - selling put options at support levels or construct bullish call spreads [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Futures**: The expectation of loose monetary policy strengthened, and the futures were expected to rise. Although the futures closed down, the speech at the Financial Street Forum released a signal of loose money. It is expected that the futures will open higher, and it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The risk - aversion sentiment subsided, and the market awaited the Fed's decision. The prices of gold and silver fell. In the short term, the market may be volatile, but in the long term, precious metals are expected to have a bull market. It is recommended to buy gold at low prices below $4000 [8][9]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The futures market was volatile and declined, mainly affected by the reduction of quotations by MSC. However, the SCFIS European line index continued to rise, so a cautious bullish attitude is maintained. It is recommended to go long on the December contract on dips [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Sino - US reached a preliminary consensus, and copper prices reached a new high. The macro environment and supply - demand fundamentals supported the price increase. It is recommended to focus on the support at around 86,000 yuan [13][14][17]. - **Alumina**: The spot trading activity increased, but the short - term oversupply situation was difficult to change. The supply was abundant, while the demand was weak. It is expected that the price will be under pressure, and the main contract will fluctuate between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan [17][18][19]. - **Aluminum**: The price was strong, and the spot discount widened. The macro environment was mixed, and the fundamentals were in a tight balance. It is expected that the price will remain in a strong and volatile range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan [20][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price followed aluminum and was volatile and strong. The cost support was obvious, and the supply - demand was in a tight balance. It is recommended that the main contract operate in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan [22][23]. - **Zinc**: The price rose slightly due to the squeeze on LME zinc and macro - level benefits. The supply was loose but the subsequent increase might be limited, and the demand was stable. It is expected to be in a range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan [24][25][27]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong fundamentals, the price was strong. The supply was tight, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range fluctuation [27][29][30]. - **Nickel**: The price was volatile, and the fundamentals were weak during the policy window period. The production was high, the demand was average, and the inventory was increasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 120,000 - 128,000 yuan [30][31][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price was mainly volatile, and the fundamentals were weak. The raw material cost support was weakening, the supply was increasing, and the demand was not significantly boosted. It is expected to operate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [34][35][36]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price was strong, and the strong demand was gradually realized. The supply - demand gap was expanding in the peak season. It is expected to run strongly, and the main contract is recommended to operate in the range of 80,000 - 84,000 yuan [37][38][41]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The apparent demand for steel recovered, and the price rose with coking coal. The cost was supported, the supply was affected by environmental protection, the demand was expected to be supported by policies, and the inventory decreased. It is recommended to hold long positions and pay attention to the previous high pressure [42][43][44]. - **Iron Ore**: The price rebounded. The supply and demand situation was complex, with the decline in arrivals and the increase in inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and engage in the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal was strong, and the downstream replenishment demand recovered. The supply decreased, and the demand had replenishment needs. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on the short - term and engage in the long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [47][48][49]. - **Coke**: The second - round price increase was proposed. The cost was supported, the supply decreased, the demand was weak, and the inventory was moderately reduced. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and engage in the long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [50][51][52]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: Sino - US relations improved, and near - month soybeans had cost support. The price of domestic soybean meal decreased slightly, and the cost of imported soybeans was supported. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal will be on a strong trend [53][54][55]. - **Pigs**: The secondary fattening boosted the price of pigs. The spot price rose, and the market demand improved. However, there will be an increase in the number of pigs to be slaughtered in November and December. It is recommended to exit the arbitrage position and re - enter after the spot price stabilizes [56][57]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure remained, and the price was weak and volatile. The supply was abundant, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the price was affected by the selling rhythm of farmers and policy support [58][59].

Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks experienced a significant decline following a sharp drop in gold prices, influenced by recent developments in US-China trade relations and market sentiment towards gold investments [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the report, major gold stocks in Hong Kong opened lower, with China Gold International down 3.31% to HKD 125.7, Tongguan Gold down 2.92% to HKD 2.66, Shandong Gold down 1.73% to HKD 33, China Silver Group down 1.56% to HKD 0.63, and Chifeng Jilong Gold down 1.43% to HKD 28.96 [1] - On October 27, spot gold prices fell sharply by 3%, briefly dropping below the USD 3900 mark [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The decline in gold prices is attributed to a reduction in safe-haven demand following the establishment of a "substantial framework" in trade negotiations between the US and China, which included a temporary easing of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods [1] - According to CITIC Futures, the recent developments have led to a noticeable decrease in the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, negatively impacting short-term gold price performance [1] Group 3: Investment Sentiment - A report from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities indicates that gold is no longer considered a wise investment choice in the short term, as the "long gold" position has become overcrowded according to a Bank of America survey [1] - High leverage in gold ETFs has resulted in a rapid price decline from historical highs, with current volatility severely affecting the risk-reward ratio for gold investments [1] - Despite the short-term outlook, the institution maintains that gold still holds long-term investment value [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is experiencing a significant decline, approaching the critical support level of $4000 per ounce, influenced by short-term market factors and profit-taking after a substantial price increase [1][4][5]. Price Movement - As of October 22, the London gold price fell by 1.79% to $4037.901 per ounce, with a low of $4023.59 during the trading session [1][2]. - COMEX gold futures also dropped by 2.1%, reaching $4051.0 per ounce, with a minimum of $4034.2 [2][3]. Market Analysis - The recent adjustment in gold prices is attributed to crowded trading conditions and geopolitical news disturbances, leading to profit-taking after a $1000 increase since September [4]. - Analysts suggest that the easing of geopolitical tensions and the stabilization of silver markets have contributed to the current price adjustments [3][4]. Future Outlook - Despite the short-term decline, there is optimism for a medium to long-term increase in gold prices due to central bank purchases and rising investment demand [3][4]. - The market is advised to closely monitor developments in US-China trade negotiations, as any positive outcomes could further influence gold prices [5].

Core Viewpoint - The current market shows a decrease in safe-haven sentiment, leading to a significant drop in gold and silver prices, with gold falling below $4000 per ounce and silver dropping over 4% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest report, spot gold has reached a low of $3987 per ounce, marking a daily decline of 2.8% [1] - Spot silver is reported at $46.5 per ounce, reflecting a decline of over 4% [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The reduction in safe-haven sentiment is noted as a key factor influencing the current market dynamics [1] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have been gradually absorbed, contributing to increased volatility in precious metals [1]