如今，泡沫已大到难以掩盖。以2025年8月数据为例，纳斯达克100指数市盈率已突破历史高位，市场风险持续累积。尽管鲍威尔已明确警示风险，但市场 仍存在另一种声音：有观点认为，无论其如何表态，美联储最终需按美高层要求再降息50个基点，否则主席职位或将不保。 美联储）主席鲍威尔近日一改往日姿态，直接向全球市场发出严厉警告，称当前资产估值过高，泡沫现象已十分严重。这一表态如同"核弹"般引爆市场， 宣告靠大规模印钞刺激经济、躺着赚钱的时代即将终结。随着美联储公开质疑资产价格合理性，靠货币宽松维持的资本狂欢正走向尾声。 疫情初期两年间，为应对经济衰退，美联储启动史无前例的"量化宽松"政策，疯狂开动印钞机向市场注入流动性。数据显示，美国货币供应量（M2）在 短期内激增40%，新增6.3万亿美元，2021年2月增速更达27%，创下数十年新高。巨额资金涌入市场后，因实体经济复苏乏力，大量资金转向股市、基金 等金融领域，催生资产价格虚高。2020年3月美股曾经历熔断，但在天量资金推动下，标普500和纳斯达克指数此后两年持续攀升，不少投资者轻松获得 20%-30%的收益，"闭眼赚钱"成为现实，而这也让金融泡沫不断膨胀。 这场政策 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points marks its first rate cut in 2025, which has been anticipated by global financial markets, resulting in a relatively stable market reaction [1][2] - China's central bank has emphasized a supportive monetary policy stance, focusing on optimizing monetary systems and tools to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission, thereby promoting funds circulation and value creation [1][2] - The global financial market's response to the Fed's rate cut has been mixed, with significant volatility observed in cryptocurrency markets, while major stock markets remain driven by technical and bond market factors [2][3] Group 2 - The impact of the Fed's rate cut is expected to differ in the short and medium to long term, with potential risks arising from a prolonged period of low rates that could lead to a weaker dollar and affect global capital flows [3][4] - China is advised to manage various relationships, including balancing monetary policy with forward guidance, promoting trade and investment growth while pursuing financial openness, and enhancing domestic and international market integration [4][7] - The internationalization of the renminbi is seen as a strategic opportunity for China to mitigate the impacts of the Fed's rate cut, allowing for more effective monetary policy adjustments and support for the real economy [7][8] Group 3 - The construction of a unified national market and the promotion of a dual circulation strategy are crucial for enhancing domestic consumption and investment, which can help stabilize the renminbi and reduce the impact of fluctuations in the dollar [8][9] - The relationship between credit precision and liquidity injection into capital markets is highlighted, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to support both the financial system and the real economy [10][11] - The overall focus is on how to leverage the Fed's rate cut to enhance China's economic resilience and improve resource allocation efficiency through targeted monetary policies [11]

南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者 周蕊 纽约报道 据央视财经报道，当地时间9月23日，美联储主席鲍威尔出席公开活动并发表讲话。鲍威尔表示，美联 储将持续面对就业疲软与通胀反弹的挑战，因而将继续保持谨慎的货币政策立场来对待降息，鲍威尔还 认为美股的估值"相当高"。讲话后，美国三大股指跌至日内新低，科技和非必需消费品等类别股票领 跌，三大股指集体收跌。截至23日收盘，道指跌0.19%，标普500指数跌0.55%，纳指跌0.95%。 美联储在九月议息会议上宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4%至4.25%。这是自去年 12月以来的首次降息，也意味着美国货币政策在经历数月观望后，终于选择了新的方向。 市场的核心疑问在于：这仅仅是一场"风险管理式"调整，还是新一轮宽松周期的开端？未来六到十二个 月，美国经济将走向何方？美元走弱与利率下行又会如何影响全球资本流动，尤其是新兴市场？针对这 些问题，南方财经记者专访了纳斯达克首席经济学家 Phil Mackintosh。 在他看来，美联储的降息动作既是对经济数据的反映，也在一定程度上回应了外部压力。预计美联储未 来可能继续降息，利率或逐步回落至3.5%左右。如果利 ...

因此，通过传统手段抑制通胀反而加剧了经济收缩的压力。许多政府如今面临"滞胀"威胁 —— 即经济衰退伴随通货膨胀。央行深知这种权衡关系：通胀下 降需以经济增长的相应收缩为代价。 作者：Jomo Kwame Sundaram，联合国前官员、马来西亚经济学家、亚太智库研究员 南非约翰内斯堡，国际新闻社。2025年9月23日，美国总统特朗普对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的尖刻抨击，重新唤起了人们对央行独立性的支持 —— 这种 独立性长期以来被强大的金融利益集团所滥用，损害了经济增长与公平性。 独立的中央银行本应提升货币政策的质量、公平性以及对经济增长的影响力。但如今，它们主要服务于强大的金融利益集团，其紧缩性和倒退性政策导致经 济缓慢且不均衡的增长。 独立于谁？ 中央银行的设立旨在通过制定货币政策来塑造金融环境，从而实现国家经济目标。近几十年来，新的政策共识认为独立的中央银行应制定货币政策。因此， 在较小规模的开放型发展中国家，这些银行往往受到强大金融利益集团（通常是外国势力）的裹挟。 过去半个世纪里，许多政府在国际金融势力影响下修改法律，确立中央银行独立于行政和立法部门与政府地位平等。与此同时，随着"通货膨胀目标制"成 ...

After President Donald Trump shocked global markets with his aggressive tariffs earlier this year, investors turned away from the U.S. and went elsewhere—but the scales are tilting back again. U.S. stocks have made furious rebounds, setting fresh record highs and eroding the outperformance that European markets have enjoyed for much of this year. The S&P 500 is now up 13% year to date and the Nasdaq is up 17%. As recently as late June, when the broad market index had retaken its prior all-time high, bo ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut from 4.5% to 4.25% [1][2][24] - Historical patterns indicate that once the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, various asset classes often experience significant rallies [2][4] - The current economic indicators suggest that the ongoing rate cut cycle resembles the preventive rate cuts of 1995, with a low unemployment rate of 4.1% and GDP growth [9][10] Group 2 - The article outlines three historical rate-cutting scenarios: preventive (1995), crisis (2007), and panic (2020), each leading to different asset performance outcomes [11][12][19] - In the 1995 scenario, a modest rate cut led to a significant bull market in stocks, while the 2007 cuts preceded a major financial crisis [6][7][10] - The 2020 emergency cuts resulted in unprecedented liquidity, causing Bitcoin to surge from $3,800 to $69,000, highlighting the impact of aggressive monetary policy on asset prices [8][18][19] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the context of rate cuts, as the reasons behind them can significantly influence market reactions [31][32] - It notes that the current market sentiment is cautious yet optimistic, with Bitcoin trading near historical highs, unlike the previous bear market conditions seen in 2019 [27][49] - The potential for a "rational prosperity" scenario is discussed, where Bitcoin may not see explosive growth but could experience steady increases as liquidity increases [27][49] Group 4 - The performance of traditional assets during rate-cutting cycles is analyzed, showing that not all rate cuts lead to stock market rallies [30][31] - Defensive sectors tend to outperform during economic downturns, while cyclical sectors may do better in stronger economic conditions [32][34] - The article also highlights the stable performance of gold during rate cuts, with an average increase of 32% over two years in past cycles [40][44][45] Group 5 - The article concludes by suggesting that the next 6-12 months could be critical for asset performance as the current rate-cutting cycle progresses [50][51] - It raises the possibility of unexpected events influencing market dynamics, such as geopolitical tensions or technological advancements [51][52] - The changing landscape of the monetary system and the role of cryptocurrencies as a reflection of these changes are emphasized [53][54]

受美联储周三宣布2025年首次降息，及后续可能进一步实施货币政策宽松的信号推动，标普500指数与 纳斯达克综合指数实现连续三周上涨，同时"三巫日"交割让市场交易量攀升至4月以来的最高水平。 然而，资金流向显示，上周美股基金净流出超过400亿美元，创去年12月以来新高，估值问题或将成为 未来市场走向的关键影响因素。 美联储降息落地 上周公布的主要经济数据显示，美国经济继续保持韧性。就业市场方面，美国劳工部称，截至9月13日 当周，首次申请失业救济人数从之前一周的26.4万人减少3.3万人，至23.1万人，低于市场预期。8月美 国零售销售额增长0.6%，是市场预期的3倍，分析认为这表明尽管物价上涨且美国劳动力市场疲软，消 费者支出仍保持稳定。 在特朗普政府关税政策引发的复杂经济环境下，美联储决定重启宽松周期，时隔9个月下调联邦基金利 率25个基点。这被解读为不断恶化的就业市场已盖过了对顽固通胀的担忧。 牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，美联储决定符 合市场广泛预期，委员会正高度关注就业市场面临的下行风险，因此10月的政策决定可能仍将取决于就 业市场数据的走向 ...

虽然日本央行一直在寻找加息的时机，只要经济和物价形势有所改善就加息，但已经连续四次会议维持 现有政策，这主要是因为美国的关税政策给日本经济和物价带来极大的不确定性。虽然8月份的日本消 费者物价指数上升2.7%，时隔9个月跌到3%以下，但日本央行内部有很多意见认为，需要在分析下个月 的企业短期经济观察调查和分行行长会议的报告后才能确认经济的走势。 尽管如此，市场还是认为日本央行会在今年10月或者12月，最迟到明年1月决定加息。虽然到10月初自 民党将选出怎样的新总裁还是一个不确定因素，但美国关税对日本经济带来的影响已经开始显现，比如 今年8月日本对美汽车出口额同比下降了28%，日本对美出口整体下降了13.8%。市场预测日本企业的业 绩将会进一步下滑，而企业员工的薪资增长势头能不能继续保持也会出现问题。所以，日本证券市场很 可能因为政治和经济因素而在10月份出现调整局面，美联储这次降息决定给日本市场带来的短期拉动效 应也可能迅速消失，留下的是美日货币政策方向差异再度显现。 美联储的降息实际上也制约了日本央行加息的可能性，因为日本不希望看到日元汇率的巨幅震荡。但如 果日本央行维持现有政策的话，日元可能继续贬值。如果 ...

Core Viewpoint - A new bill introduced by House Republicans aims to reform the Federal Reserve's dual mandate, focusing primarily on controlling inflation rather than maximizing employment and price stability [2][3]. Group 1: Legislative Changes - The "Price Stability Act of 2025" seeks to end the Federal Reserve's dual mandate established in 1977, which requires it to maximize employment and ensure price stability [2]. - House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill emphasized the need for a clear focus on inflation control to protect American households [2]. Group 2: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Republican lawmakers argue that the Federal Reserve's expanding regulatory scope has hindered its ability to stabilize prices and threatens its independence [3]. - Treasury Secretary Becerra criticized the Federal Reserve's evolution since the 2008 financial crisis, claiming it has distorted financial markets and weakened its independence [5]. Group 3: Proposals for Reform - There are calls for a comprehensive review of the Federal Reserve's operations, including its monetary and regulatory policies, to enhance its independence and accountability [5][6]. - Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh suggested a new agreement between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to clarify their goals and enhance independence [6]. Group 4: Public Trust and Future Meetings - Recent polling indicates that only 45% of Americans trust the Federal Reserve to manage the economy effectively, with 33% approving of Chairman Powell's performance [6]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, and the next policy meeting is scheduled for October 28-29 [7].

Core Insights - China has sold $27.1 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds over two months, reducing its holdings to $757 billion, the lowest since 2009 [1][2] - The Federal Reserve emerged as the largest buyer of these bonds, surprising many analysts who expected Japan or the UK to step in [1][2] - The sale reflects China's strategy to diversify its foreign exchange reserves away from U.S. debt, amid rising U.S. debt levels and ongoing trade tensions [2][3] Group 1: China's Actions - China reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings significantly, indicating a strategic shift in its investment approach [1][2] - The reduction in holdings is a response to the increasing U.S. debt, which has surpassed $36 trillion, and high interest payments projected at $928 billion for 2025 [1][2] - Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions have also influenced China's decision to sell off U.S. bonds as a form of market pressure [1][2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's intervention in the bond market has been crucial, holding $4.2 trillion in U.S. debt, more than the combined holdings of China, Japan, and the UK [2] - The volatility in U.S. Treasury yields has deterred investors, making bonds less attractive [1][2] - The future of the U.S. Treasury market remains uncertain, with ongoing concerns about rising debt levels and fluctuating yields [2][3]