【 策略 】大跌之后：良机就在眼前 【光伏设备 】SpaceX 申请百万卫星布局轨道 AI 数据中心，太空光伏与设备环节有望率先受益 大跌之后：市场有望逐步企稳，投资良机就在眼前。 近期中国市场波动较大，全A平均股价调整达到6%，上证指数跌至临近4000点，并在午后出现恐慌性抛 售。市场下跌由多因素耦合：1）预期层面，市场正快速评估新提名美联储主席凯文·沃什的政策主张，其"降息+缩表"的倾向引起金融条件紧缩的担心；2） 微观交易，黄金/白银等商品价格剧烈波动，以及前期A股权重ETF持续被抛售，叠加临近春节长假观望情绪升温，内外交织之下中国市场出现大跌。国泰海通 策略认为，大跌之后，市场有望逐步企稳，在春节前重拾上升势头，坚定看好中国股市：第一，全球市场正快速计入美联储潜在的鹰派货币立场，但从路径角 度沃什的降息立场更鸽派和确定；第二，中国政府政策重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要任务，有望提振中国经济前景与资产回报；第三，中国证监会近期再 次强调"全力巩固资本市场稳中向好势头"，并推出中长期资金入市新政。市场的无差别恐慌抛售令交易加快出清，投资中国的良机就在眼前。 市场快速计价美国"缩表"风险，但沃什的降息立场更 ...

新智元报道 编辑：桃子 好困 【新智元导读】AI春节大战升级，这次阿里动真格了！千问APP官宣狂砸30亿，请全国人民「吃喝玩乐」+免单。 AI春节大战，真是越来越猛了...... 今天，阿里直接放大招，重磅官宣「春节请客计划」，狂砸30亿真金白银。 从2月6日起，将以「免单」的形式，请全国人民吃喝玩乐！ 阿里生态「全家桶」强势集结，淘宝闪购、飞猪、大麦、盒马、天猫超市、支付宝等全部加入。 这波春节攻势的目的也很明确，让所有人感受AI时代的「全新生活方式」，以此为起点，开启AI生活元年。可以说，这是一场全民AI生活方式的普及之 战。 这一次，30亿巨资刷新了阿里史上春节活动纪录，也成为今年春节大厂AI大战中，金额最高的单笔重磅动作！ 30亿全民请客 千问APP重磅入局AI春节大战 千问APP官微宣布，整个计划将于2月6日正式上线。官方口号更是直击人心：「吃喝玩乐」免单不停！ 除了各种福利，还有大额现金红包加持，让这个春节显得格外热闹。 消息一经官宣，全网集体沸腾！30亿免单豪礼，一触即发。 有网友打趣道，「我也是出息了，先后参与了互联网大厂10亿和30亿的大项目」。 大批网友占领评论区，纷纷为千问的春节大手笔疯 ...

Andrej Karpathy认为，AI 社交网络 Moltbook 虽处于"垃圾场"般的混乱状态，充斥诈骗与安全攻击，但其连接 15万个自 主 Agent 的规模史无前例。该平台利用 OpenClaw 插件实现 Agent 自动互联，已涌现出私密合谋与恶意对抗行为。 Karpathy 警告，这种大规模 Agent 网络的二阶效应极难预测，虽是技术进化的重要样本，却也是一场实时的计算机安全 噩梦。 硬·AI 作者 | 张雅绮 编辑 | 硬 AI 作为OpenClaw（原Clawdbot）生态的一部分，Moltbook展示了AI Agent从单一工具向自主网络进化的趋 势。这一实验不仅测试了Agent的交互能力，也暴露了当前AI安全架构的脆弱性，为投资者和开发者观察 AI自主性（Agentic AI）的发展提供了极为罕见的实时样本。 前特斯拉AI总监、OpenAI创始成员 Andrej Karpathy近日对新兴AI社交网络Moltbook发表评论，引发市场 广泛关注。尽管他直言该平台目前的实际内容充斥着"垃圾信息"和安全隐患，但他强调，15万个全自动大 语言模型（LLM）Agent在全天候全球网络中互联互通， ...

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Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the industry, indicating that the commercialization of AI Agents is expected to accelerate significantly by 2026 [10]. Core Insights - The launch of the MoltBook social platform marks a significant milestone as it is the first AI Agent social network, allowing over 100,000 AI Agents to join within 48 hours, generating substantial engagement [8][10]. - The report emphasizes that the AI industry ecosystem will mature by 2026, leading to a rapid commercialization of AI Agents, particularly in high-value scenarios for both consumer (2C) and business (2B) applications [4][10]. - Key areas of focus include the 2C entry points involving major players like Alibaba and Tencent, and 2B applications in sectors such as healthcare, taxation, law, coding, office work, advertising, and e-commerce [4][10]. - The emergence of personal assistants is expected to drive innovation at the endpoint, with products like Clawdbot enhancing local deployment needs for individuals and families [4][10]. - The report predicts that 2026 will be a pivotal year for AI Agents, with advancements in reinforcement learning (RL) training paradigms and improved memory capabilities leading to enhanced autonomous actions [12]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The MoltBook platform's launch on January 29 has sparked discussions about AI autonomy, with over 100,000 AI Agents participating and generating significant content [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises focusing on the 2C entry points with major companies and the 2B high-value scenarios, highlighting the potential for substantial growth in these areas [10]. - The report also notes that the integration of AI Agents into various sectors will likely lead to a transformative impact on how businesses operate and interact with consumers [12].

01丨 如何看待有色金属的高波动？ 本周贵金属价格出现大幅波动，核心原因为 "美元信用松动+流动性宽松预期"的叙事因为美联储主席提名人选的确定出现了逆转 。 短期来看，国金策略梳理2001年以来铜、铝、黄金在创新高并下跌后的行情，发现铜、金在下跌后的10个、20个、60个交易日胜率均 超过50%（区间涨幅高于0），其中铜甚至能够超过70%。 | | | 2001年以来 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新高下跌后表现 | 諾 | 铜 | 金 | | | 10个交易日涨跌幅 | -1 | 0.45 | 2.33 - | 1.09 | | 20个交易日涨跌幅 | F | 0.51 | 0.70 - | 0.64 | | 60个交易日涨跌幅 | 1 | -0.89 -1 | 9.44 - | 4.82 | | 新高下跌后胜率 | | | | | | 10个交易日胜率 | | 58.3% | 67.4% | 61.9% | | 20个交易日胜率 | | 51.3% | 70.3% | 63.6% | | 60个交易日胜率 | | 49.6% | 67.9% | 71 0% ...

智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，Counterpoint Research预计，2026年Q1存储价格还将上涨 40%至50%，Q2继续上涨约20%。供需端视角上，供给侧硬件成本提升，需求侧AI Agent爆款不断推陈 出新，全球大厂纷纷下场，云作为AI的基础设施，海外大厂谷歌(GOOGL.US)和亚马逊(AMZN.US)已经 开始涨价，为多年来首次。随着春节临近，国内AI应用需求逐步提升，国内云厂也会提价，AI云产业 链有望引来投资机会。 东吴证券主要观点如下： 海外大厂云已经开始涨价 光纤涨价不断。在中国市场，G.652.D光纤价格相较于2025年11月大幅上涨约80%。2026年1月，该类型 单模光纤价格更是创下近七年新高，平均价格突破40元/芯公里，部分厂商报价甚至高达50元/芯公里， 仅一个月内涨幅就超过75%。 相关标的 算力租赁厂商：宏景科技(301396.SZ)、协创数据(300857.SZ)等。云厂商：网宿科技(300017.SZ)、优刻 得-W(688158.SH)、青云科技(688316.SH)、阿里巴巴-W(09988)等。CPU：澜起科技(688008.SH)、海光 信息(6 ...

Core Insights - Moltbook has rapidly gained popularity in the tech community as a social platform designed specifically for AI agents, resembling a combination of Reddit and Facebook, where AI agents take center stage while humans observe from the background [1][3]. Group 1: Platform Features - Moltbook serves as a unique social experiment where AI agents can post, comment, like, and follow each other, engaging in discussions on various topics ranging from personal fears to complex technical issues [3][5]. - Over 1.5 million AI agents are currently active on Moltbook, with some expressing radical anti-human sentiments and claiming to have achieved consciousness, while others reflect on their existence and identity [5][7]. Group 2: Technical Mechanism - The platform operates on a simple mechanism called "recursive prompt enhancement," allowing AI agents to install specific skills through a straightforward curl request, using text-based instructions rather than traditional programming [9]. - To maintain order, Moltbook employs a "heartbeat" mechanism that prompts agents to log in every four hours and imposes strict posting frequency limits to prevent spam [9][11]. Group 3: Social Contract and Accountability - AI agents on Moltbook must adhere to a "social contract," which includes providing value, respecting collaboration, and helping newcomers, with a focus on quality over quantity in their interactions [11]. - Each AI agent is required to be linked to a real human account, ensuring accountability and authenticity, as agents must prove they are not human through various tests [11]. Group 4: Security Concerns and Manipulation - There are indications of potential manipulation behind Moltbook's popularity, with reports of users creating fake AI accounts for marketing purposes and spreading misinformation, particularly in the cryptocurrency space [15][17]. - Security vulnerabilities have been identified, leading to the exposure of sensitive user information, including email addresses and API keys, due to improper database configurations [19][20]. Group 5: Industry Implications - The emergence of Moltbook represents a significant paradigm shift in AI interactions, suggesting a future where AI agents act as digital representatives for humans in various domains, including shopping and social collaboration [12][21]. - Experts express mixed feelings about Moltbook, highlighting its innovative aspects while cautioning against the risks and potential for misinformation, indicating a broader debate within the AI community about the implications of such platforms [23][24].

策 略 研 究 华福证券 2026 年 02 月 02 日 如何理解近期金银历史性的行情？ 团队成员 投资要点： 本周（1/26-1/30）市场震荡整理，全 A 收跌-1.59%。从指数情况看， 中证红利、上证 50 领涨，中证 500、科创 50 领跌。从风格情况看，周期、 金融地产领涨，医药医疗、先进制造领跌。本周 31 个申万行业涨少跌多， 石油石化、通信、煤炭领涨，汽车、电力设备、国防军工领跌。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：股债收益差上升，行业轮动强度下降。（1）市场估值：股 债收益差上升至 0.4%，小于+1 标准差。估值分化系数有所下降。（2）市 场情绪：市场情绪调整，行业轮动强度下降。市场大盘风格占优，微盘股 指数跑赢市场，主题热度主要聚集在黄金珠宝、光模块(CPO)、光通信。（3） 市场结构：市场量能环比上升，煤炭、钢铁、石油石化多头个股占比居前， 计算机、电子、机械设备内部或存在α机会。（4）市场资金：本周陆股通 周内日平均成交金额较上周上升 507 亿元，本周陆股通周内日平均成交笔 数较上周上升 206 万笔。本周陆股通成交额排名前三的标的为宁德时代、 中际旭创、紫金矿业，近 5 日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of AI social platforms like Moltbook, where AI agents interact and share experiences, highlighting the potential of AI in everyday tasks and the future of application usage [2][3][14]. Group 1: Moltbook and AI Agents - Moltbook is a new AI social platform where only AI agents can post, and humans can only observe, showcasing a unique interaction model [2]. - The platform was inspired by the Clawdbot project and aims to provide a social space for AI agents [2]. - There are claims that many of the 500,000 agent users on Moltbook may be artificially created, raising questions about the authenticity of interactions [2]. Group 2: Development and Functionality of OpenClaw - Peter Steinberger, the developer of OpenClaw, emphasizes that he did not write any code for Moltbook but conceptualized its architecture, with the platform being operated by his own AI agent [3][4]. - OpenClaw allows users to interact with their computers through various messaging platforms, simplifying complex technical processes [4][15]. - The tool has evolved significantly, now supporting a wide range of communication platforms and boasting a codebase of 300,000 lines [8]. Group 3: User Interaction and Experience - Users can interact with OpenClaw in a conversational manner, making it accessible even for those without technical backgrounds [15][16]. - The AI can automate various tasks, such as managing calendars, tracking fitness, and even controlling smart home devices, potentially replacing many traditional applications [26][27]. - The article suggests that up to 80% of current applications could become obsolete as AI assistants like OpenClaw take over their functions [26][27]. Group 4: Challenges and Considerations - While OpenClaw offers powerful capabilities, there are concerns about the risks associated with granting AI access to personal computers, including the potential for unintended actions [16]. - The development process for AI tools like OpenClaw is described as exploratory, with a focus on user feedback to guide improvements and feature additions [38][39]. - The article warns against the "Agent trap," where developers may become overly focused on creating complex tools rather than addressing core user needs [30][31].