Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction has garnered significant market attention, with notable internal disagreements among officials regarding the policy path, leading to an increased probability of interest rate cuts in July [1] - Research indicates that certain members, such as Waller and Bowman, support a July rate cut under specific conditions, while hawkish representative Harker remains cautious about rate cuts within the year [1] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari anticipates two rate cuts this year, with the first cut potentially occurring in September, while also warning about the lagging impact of tariffs on inflation and emphasizing the need for policy flexibility [1] Group 2 - The ongoing tariff discussions have been pushing inflation expectations higher, with May data exceeding expectations, further reinforcing the Fed's stance of maintaining higher rates for a longer duration [1] - Based on data analysis, the outlook for gold is considered bearish in the upcoming week [1]

周度报告-黄金 市场风险偏好回升，黄金承压下挫 | [Table_Rank] 走势评级： | 黄金：看跌 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 6 | 月 | 29 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★市场综述： 伦敦金跌 2.8%至 3274 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.28%，通胀 预期 2.3%，实际利率降至 1.97%，美元指数跌 1.32%至 97.4，标普 500 指数涨 3.44%，离岸人民币小幅升值，内外价差窄幅波动。 金价回调，一方面是地缘政治风险降温，美国打击伊朗核设施后 加快了伊朗和以色列的停火进程，美国没有朝着深陷战争泥潭的 方向发展，伊朗的回应也非常克制，原油价格基本回吐涨幅，减 少了美国通胀上行风险。一方面是美国经济尚未衰退，美联储维 持按兵不动暂停降息的状态，市场缺乏增量利多，鲍威尔在国会 就半年度货币政策报告作证词，表态鹰派，关税带来的不确定性 和通胀上行风险导致美联储对降息较为谨慎，同时美联储内部的 分歧也在增加，沃勒和鲍曼先后表态支持最快 ...

文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强 大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投 资有风险，盈亏自负。 从黄金4小时来看，黄金周五冲高回落，日线收十字星。虽此前有小阳线，但反弹乏力且无持续性，未形成有 效突破，显示自3452高点以来的调整未结束，日内仍有下行空间。当前呈阴跌态势，不宜等大幅反弹后做 空，反弹过大会减弱下跌动能。周五亚市早盘金价续跌逼近3280支撑位，该区域支撑密集，直接追空风险 大。综上所述，下周黄金翁富豪建议维持反弹做空策略：反弹至3297-3302区间做空，止损3310，目标3290- 3270。 本周美联储货币政策动向成为市场焦点，多位官员的公开表态显示其内部在政策路径上存在显著分歧，7月降 息可能性显著增加。最新研究报告指出，理事沃勒和鲍曼在特定条件下支持7月降息，而鹰派代表哈克则对年 内降息持审慎立场。明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利最新表态：预计美联储年内实施两次降息，首次降息窗 口或在9月开启；同时警示关税对通胀的滞后效应，强调政策制定需保持灵活性。年内关税言论持续推升通胀 ...

文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强 大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投 资有风险，盈亏自负。 黄金昨日呈现冲高回落走势，日线收出十字星形态。尽管此前收出小阳线，但反弹力度不足且缺乏持续性， 未能形成有效上行突破，表明黄金自3452高点以来的调整趋势尚未完结，日内仍存下行空间。当前行情呈现 阴跌特征，不宜期待价格大幅反弹后进场做空——反弹幅度扩大会削弱下行动能。周五亚市早盘金价延续跌 势，逐步逼近3280支撑位，该区域支撑结构密集，直接追空风险较高，目前翁富豪建议维持反弹做空策略， 反弹至3297-3302区域做空，止损在3310，目标看向3290-3270 周五（6月27日）北京时间20:30，美国商务部经济分析局发布5月个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数，该数据作 为美联储核心通胀监测指标，揭示了美国经济在通胀压力与消费动能间的博弈态势。叠加关税政策预期引发 的市场避险情绪，投资者对美联储货币政策路径的预期呈现分化。数据公布后，金融市场即时响应：美元指 数短线回落约10个基点，折射市场对通胀 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Boston Fed President Collins signals a personal inclination towards interest rate cuts later this year, but emphasizes high uncertainty in policy direction due to potential inflationary pressures from tariffs [1][3]. Economic Conditions - The current U.S. economic fundamentals are solid, and monetary policy is in a "good position," but future adjustments will heavily depend on data, particularly the impact of tariffs on inflation [3][5]. - The cancellation of some extreme tariffs has alleviated some inflationary pressures, but the remaining tariffs' effects are not fully realized, with core PCE expected to remain "slightly above" 3% by year-end, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3][5]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - As businesses complete inventory adjustments, tariffed goods are expected to gradually enter the supply chain, potentially leading to further inflation in the coming months [5]. - If price pressures persist, the Fed may need to delay rate cuts or reassess its policy path [5][8]. Fed's Internal Dynamics - The recent Fed meeting maintained interest rates in the 4.25% to 4.5% range, with notable internal divisions on the timing of rate cuts. Some members advocate for easing as early as July, while others, including Powell, prefer a wait-and-see approach [5][8]. - Collins' stance is more centrist, neither ruling out the possibility of rate cuts this year nor dismissing the potential for policy shifts due to external shocks [5][8]. Market Expectations - Market analysis suggests that Collins' comments reinforce the Fed's "data-dependent" stance. If inflation rises again due to tariffs, the Fed may need to maintain high rates longer; conversely, signs of economic weakness could lead to earlier rate cuts [8]. - Currently, futures markets are betting on the earliest rate cut in September, but this expectation may fluctuate with policy uncertainties [8].

一、事件背景与核心声明 当地时间6月26日，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊在停火协议生效后首次发表电视讲话，高调宣布伊朗在与以色列的冲突中取 得"全面胜利"，并批评美国军事干预"徒劳无功"。他表示，伊朗武装力量突破了以色列"先进的多层防御系统"，对其军 事设施和城市造成重大打击，同时通过袭击美军驻卡塔尔乌代德空军基地"狠狠扇了美国一记耳光"。 哈梅内伊强调，美国介入冲突的真实目的是"拯救濒临崩溃的以色列"，但最终"一无所获"，并警告伊朗将继续保留打击 地区美军目标的能力。 二、停火协议的脆弱性与后续博弈 6月24日，美国总统特朗普宣布以色列与伊朗达成全面停火协议，双方分阶段停止军事行动。然而，哈梅内伊的讲话凸显 了停火协议的脆弱性：伊朗议会25日通过法案暂停与国际原子能机构合作，以色列防长卡茨则透露以军曾计划"清除"哈 梅内伊但未成功。此外，以色列国防军总参谋长扎米尔声称伊朗核计划因空袭"倒退数年"，而哈梅内伊坚称核设施未受 重大影响，双方陷入"罗生门"。 三、市场矛盾心理与技术面承压 尽管哈梅内伊的强硬表态理论上可能提振黄金避险需求，但当前市场更关注停火协议的短期效力。同时技术面上，黄金 日线级别呈现"阴阳交替"的震 ...

Gold Market - Gold prices dropped significantly, with a decline of over $30, as geopolitical risks decreased and market focus shifted to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - President Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell, calling him "terrible," and indicated he is considering three to four candidates for the Fed chair position, which may affect market confidence in the dollar [1] - Since Trump's presidency, the dollar index has fallen over 11%, despite the Fed not cutting interest rates, raising concerns about Trump's potential impact on the U.S. economy and institutions [1] - Market strategist Peng Cheng noted that while Powell remains in his position, Trump's pressure on the Fed raises doubts about its independence, potentially diminishing trust in the dollar [1] - Technically, gold's daily chart shows a small bearish candle, breaking below mid-term moving average support, with a potential short-term rebound expected [1] Oil Market - Oil prices remained stable with minimal fluctuations, but a lack of buying pressure suggests significant upward resistance [2] - Investors should monitor three potential risks: OPEC+ production increase plans, shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S.-EU tariff negotiations [2] - OPEC+ has been increasing production since April, with June's output expected to rise by 411,000 barrels per day, maintaining the same increase as May [2] - The IEA forecasts a global oil supply surplus by 2025, even if OPEC+ maintains current production levels [2] - Geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz have decreased, with positive signals from Iran and Israel regarding conflict resolution [2] - The outlook for U.S.-EU trade negotiations is pessimistic, with the EU preparing for various scenarios, including a potential breakdown in talks, which could negatively impact the global economy [2] - Technically, oil's daily chart shows a small bullish candle, indicating a correction from previous declines, with a focus on the $66.60 resistance level [2] Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a significant increase, forming a breakout from a trading range, with a high probability of reaching new highs in the short term [3] - The 1-hour chart indicates an upward continuation pattern, with attention on the $5 support level [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown strong bullish momentum, but there is a risk of overextension [5] - The 4-hour chart suggests that the structure is nearing completion, with prices being significantly overbought, indicating a potential for a pullback [5] - Short-term focus should be on the resistance level around 40,400 [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the U.S. stock market has experienced significant volatility in 2025, with the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq index showing substantial declines from their peaks, but rebounding strongly since mid-April due to reduced policy uncertainty and expectations of a shift towards looser monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1][2][4] - The rebound in the U.S. stock market is primarily driven by retail investors and liquidity, with a noted increase in risk appetite as the most pessimistic phase appears to have passed [1][4] - Analysts suggest that the volatility in the U.S. stock market is influenced by the performance of technology stocks, ongoing fiscal and trade deficits, and fluctuating tariff policies, which have all contributed to increased market uncertainty [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. fiscal deficit for the fiscal year 2025 has reached $1.05 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 13%, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. government debt and challenging the high valuations of U.S. stocks [2][3] - The earnings growth of S&P 500 companies has shown resilience, with an expected earnings per share (EPS) growth of 7.5% for 2025, despite downward revisions in profit forecasts [5][6] - Current valuations of U.S. stocks are considered high, with the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio returning to levels seen in early March, indicating limited potential for further valuation increases [6]

ITC国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 E 突期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 D'AVE 市 市 官 方 网 站 服 热 线 客 需 有 译 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 慎 险 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITC国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0013700 | | | 2025/6/27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格厨房 | ...

当前，特朗普总统挥舞的"关税大棒"，正遭遇来自日本、法国、德国等传统盟友的强硬抵抗，贸易谈判纷纷陷入僵局，各国对签协议显得有些"犹豫不决"。 关税谈判陷入僵局 此外，印度和美国在汽车零部件、钢铁和农产品进口关税等问题上存在分歧，双方僵持不下。 离7月9日这一美国政府暂停征收"对等关税"90天的截止期限仅剩十来天，多国与美国的关税谈判仍进展不及预期，这对特朗普政府来说，压力肉眼可见地飙 升。 随着多国对于关税的强硬表态，以及特朗普政府面对国内各阶层的压力，有分析认为，当前特朗普对于关税的态度似乎出现软化，相比此前其激进的政治口 号，目前很多关税条款的细节均可以谈判。 经济形势现隐忧 本周四，WTO（世界贸易组织）发布的最新一期《货物贸易晴雨表》显示，全球货物贸易景气指数从今年3月发布的102.8升至103.5，这一指数持续高于基 准点100，表明全球货物贸易仍呈现增长态势。此外，该数字也是2021年8月以来的最高水平。 分析人士称，美国总统特朗普已对进入美国的商品加征关税，并威胁要进一步提高关税，这导致企业提前下订单，以避免额外的成本。 WTO对此也表示，全球商品贸易加速增长，但增长势头可能无法维持。上述WTO ...