1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Last week, Shanghai copper increased in volume and price, mainly due to the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the weakening of the US dollar index. On Friday night, copper prices continued to rise, with LME copper breaking through the $11,000 mark and hitting a new high, while Shanghai copper approached the 89,000 mark. Technically, the open interest of Shanghai copper increased from 510,000 contracts to 560,000 contracts last week, showing strong short - term upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the end - October high. If it breaks through, it may maintain a strong trend in the short term [6][63]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices rebounded with a decrease in positions, and there was a trend of increasing positions and rising prices on Friday night. This rebound was mainly driven by macro factors, such as the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The decline in the Shanghai - LME ratio indicated that the rise was mainly led by the external market. Globally, the low inventory of electrolytic aluminum supported the price. However, as aluminum prices rebounded, domestic downstream demand decreased, and the spot discount widened. Technically, attention can be paid to the pressure at the 22,000 mark [7][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - Last week, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut continued to rise, with the probability of a December rate cut increasing from 70% to nearly 90%. Correspondingly, the US dollar index weakened from the 100 mark, which was beneficial to non - ferrous metals and precious metals [11]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity - Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper increased in volume and price. On Friday night, copper prices continued to rise, with LME copper breaking through the $11,000 mark and Shanghai copper approaching the 89,000 mark. The open interest of Shanghai copper increased from 510,000 contracts to 560,000 contracts, indicating increased capital attention and strong short - term upward momentum [6][63]. 3.2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, the port inventory of copper ore continued to rise from a low level and was close to the same - period level in previous years. On November 28, Mysteel's port inventory of copper ore was 674,000 tons, an increase of 78,000 tons from the previous week. In November, with the rise in sulfuric acid prices, the upstream smelting profit also rebounded [25]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Copper Stockpiling - On November 27, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 171,600 tons, a weekly decrease of 20,500 tons, while the inventory in COMEX + LME was 574,800 tons, a weekly increase of 18,400 tons [27]. 3.2.4 Downstream Primary Sector - As copper prices rose, the downstream market showed a situation of "not prosperous in the peak season", and the copper product start - up rate declined month - on - month in October. In November, the overall downstream entered the off - season, and copper prices remained high. It is expected that the downstream capacity utilization rate will remain at a low level in November [29]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity - Price Trend - Last week, aluminum prices rebounded with a decrease in positions, and there was a trend of increasing positions and rising prices on Friday night. The decline in the Shanghai - LME ratio indicated that the rise was mainly led by the external market. Technically, attention can be paid to the pressure at the 22,000 mark [7][63]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - On November 21, the port inventory of bauxite was 28.0705 million tons, an increase of 46,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 9.7005 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina was weak, with the main contract price falling below the 2700 mark, while aluminum prices rose with the non - ferrous metal sector, and the profit of upstream electrolytic aluminum widened [45][47]. 3.3.3 Slowing Depletion of Electrolytic Aluminum - In November, as aluminum prices continued to rise, overseas electrolytic aluminum showed a stockpiling trend, and the depletion of domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory slowed down. On November 27, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 590,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous week, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 544,700 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous week [50]. 3.3.4 Downstream Primary Sector - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods generally declined from a high level, mainly due to the rebound of aluminum prices, which led to a decrease in downstream demand. The inventory of aluminum rods remained at a low level, with the in - factory inventory at 91,400 tons, a slight increase of 2,900 tons from the previous week [56][59].

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent trends in gold prices, highlighting a significant point to watch as expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut rise, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and a corresponding increase in precious metals like gold and silver, as well as base metals such as copper and aluminum [3] - The anticipated peak of this trend is expected around December 10, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a cautionary note on potential short-term pullbacks following the realization of these gains [3] - The US stock market is experiencing a dual effect of benefiting initially from rate cut expectations but may face pressure post-decision due to narrowing interest rate differentials between the US and other major economies, potentially leading to capital outflows [3] Group 2 - The narrowing of the 10-year Treasury yield spread between China and the US could result in some US dollar funds returning to markets like China and Japan, especially if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates in December, which would further compress the US-Japan yield spread [3] - The recent rise of the Japanese yen against the US dollar is seen as an early signal of capital returning to Japan [3]

Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver futures have surged significantly, with the Shanghai silver main contract price breaking through 13,520 yuan/kg, an increase of over 7%, while gold's increase was less than 1.5% [1] - Year-to-date, silver futures have risen over 77%, with a notable increase of 13.68% from last Monday to today [3] - COMEX silver has also shown strong performance, surpassing $58/oz, with a year-to-date increase of 98% [4] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Speculation - The primary driver for silver's price increase is the market's strong expectation of an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with an 87.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [8] - There is a significant influx of capital into the silver market, with speculative net long positions on COMEX reaching 41%, nearing levels seen before the 2011 silver bubble burst [9] Group 3: Supply and Inventory Concerns - Global silver inventories at major exchanges have dropped to near ten-year lows, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory at its lowest since 2015 [11] - COMEX silver inventory decreased from 16,540 tons at the end of September to 14,207 tons by November 28, a 14% drop, with only about 4,300 tons available for delivery [13] - The combination of high speculative buying and dwindling physical inventory signals a potential squeeze in the market [14] Group 4: Copper Market Insights - Copper prices have also surged, with the LME copper futures price rising significantly, and the Shanghai copper main contract exceeding 89,650 yuan/ton, marking a rise of over 2.5% [5] - The recent Asian Copper Week highlighted tensions in the supply chain, with miners demanding extreme processing fees, indicating upward pressure on future copper prices [17][20] - Geopolitical risks, such as the extension of mining trade bans in the Democratic Republic of Congo, have further fueled concerns about supply, impacting the entire non-ferrous metals sector [21] Group 5: Supply-Demand Dynamics in Copper - The global copper market is expected to face a supply-demand imbalance, with refined copper demand projected to reach 27.29 million tons by 2025, growing at 2.5%-2.8%, while supply growth is only expected at 1.1% [24] - Predictions indicate a significant copper deficit by 2030, with estimates ranging from 300,000 to 8.9 million tons, and a potential shortfall of 1.5 million tons by 2035 under net-zero scenarios [25][26] - Given the substantial supply-demand gap, copper prices exceeding $15,000/ton are considered a realistic expectation [27] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - Despite the significant price increases in precious and non-ferrous metals, the long-term upward trend in the sector remains intact, presenting substantial investment opportunities [28] - A cautious approach is recommended, focusing on potential pullback opportunities for better entry points into the market [29]

期货研究报告 贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 贵金属 | 周报 · 2025 年 12 月 1 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 金价反弹，金银比值下行明显 核心观点 上周金价上行，接近 11 月中旬高位，纽约金站上 4200 美元，沪 金站上 950 元关口。金价上行的动力主要来自于美联储降息预期持续 升温，美元指数高位回落。截至 11 月 30 日，市场预期 12 月美联储降 息概率已接近 90%，美元指数上周也是从 100 关口持续走弱。 短期临近美联储12月议息会议，美联储处于静默期，市场降息预 期可能维持，对应美元指数维持弱势运行，预计金价偏强运行。但中 长期金价走势相较于白银明显疲软，金银比值持续下行，美股也持续 走强，这很大程度上是市场风险偏好切换所致。技术上，可关注11月 中旬高位压力。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that silver prices have reached a historic high, surpassing $57 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 90%, significantly outperforming gold [1][3] - The market's expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has provided strong support for silver and the entire precious metals market, with an 87.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [1] - The potential appointment of a dovish candidate, Harker, as the next Federal Reserve Chair has further bolstered market confidence in a low-interest-rate environment [1] Group 2 - On the supply and demand side, a decline in silver production has led to a persistent supply shortage, with global exchange silver inventories at nearly a decade low [3] - Industrial demand for silver, particularly from sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, continues to grow, exacerbating the tightness in the spot market [3] - The short-term leasing rates for silver have surged, indicating a shortage of silver supply in the market [3] Group 3 - The current gold-to-silver price ratio is approximately 75:1, significantly higher than the historical average of 60:1 over the past two decades, suggesting that silver is relatively undervalued within the precious metals sector [3] - Bank of America has raised its silver price target for 2026 to $65 per ounce, reflecting a bullish outlook on silver prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced a significant surge, with silver futures rising over 7% in a single day, indicating strong demand and market dynamics supporting higher prices [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 1, silver futures (2602) surged by 7.34%, closing at 13,464 yuan per kilogram, with a peak of 13,520 yuan per kilogram, marking a recent high [1][2]. - The entire non-ferrous metal sector strengthened, with copper, tin, and international copper prices increasing by over 2% [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The World Silver Association forecasts a 2% increase in total silver supply and a 1% decrease in total demand by 2025, narrowing the global silver supply gap to 117.6 million ounces [7]. - Low inventory levels and structural tightness in supply are contributing to strong price elasticity for silver, with global exchange silver stocks at a near ten-year low [7][9]. Group 3: Economic Factors - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December are providing solid support for silver and the broader precious metals market, with an 87.4% probability of this occurring [6]. - The dual nature of silver as both a precious and industrial metal is driving its price increase, supported by rising demand in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [8][9].

CME宕机引发全球市场冲击 Wmax监测显示，芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME）近期突发数据中心故障，导致标普500期货、EBS外汇平台、国债、原油及贵金属等关键品种交易暂停， 涉及数万亿美元合约，影响深度与时长超2019年同类故障。芝商所日均衍生品交易量超2600万份，迷你标普500与纳斯达克100期货日均名义交易额约1万亿 美元，庞大体量使冲击快速蔓延。 此次停摆恰逢感恩节后清淡期、月末及基金年终结算叠加节点，导致流动性对冲工具缺失，国债交易受限、外汇价差扩大，期货交割压力陡增。对贵金属市 场而言，Comex黄金期货与期权冻结导致伦敦现货对冲失效，金价先飙后震荡，买卖价差从1美元飙升至20美元以上，叠加美国政府停摆致经济数据缺失， 进一步放大短期波动。 黄金短期策略 政策端聚焦12月美联储议息会议，市场预期降息25个基点；技术面伦敦金现最新4252.51美元/盎司（日涨0.71%），支撑位4220-4230美元（资金承接区，与 10年期美债收益率3.85%负相关），阻力位4280-4300美元。操作建议：4230-4240美元轻仓介入，突破4300美元且站稳2日加仓；初始仓位15%-20%，加仓后 不超30% ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - On December 1, the domestic commodity futures market saw more gains than losses, with the main contract for silver rising over 5% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1509.42 points, up 23.87 points or 1.61% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Index closed at 2086.94 points, also up 33.01 points or 1.61% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - The precious metals market showed strong performance, with silver futures reaching a historical high of 13520 yuan/kg, closing up 5.86% [2] - The rise in silver prices is supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and ongoing supply tightness [2] - Platinum and palladium futures also performed well, with platinum rising 3.96% and palladium 2.44% [3] Group 3: Specific Commodity Insights - The egg futures market showed a near-weak and far-strong pattern, with the main contract down 2.47%, while the far-month contract rose 4.00% [5] - Glass futures ended their previous rebound, closing down 1.52%, with supply-side reductions not sufficiently supporting demand [5] - Other commodities such as polysilicon and international copper saw gains of over 2% [4]

【黄金期货行情表现】 12月1日，沪金主力暂报963.28元/克，涨幅达1.33%，今日沪金主力开盘价951.92元/克，截至目前最高 968.16元/克，最低948.14元/克。 【宏观消息】 高盛表示，美联储将在12月9-10日议息会议上下调利率，几乎已无悬念。当前市场对25个基点降息的定 价率已达到约85%-86%。 据德意志商业银行的商品分析师卡斯滕·弗里奇指出，中国对黄金的需求正在减弱--黄金进口量降至七个 月来的最低水平，而对香港的黄金出口量则大幅增加，导致黄金净进口量比去年同期下降了45%。 【机构观点】 上周金价上行，接近11月上旬高位，纽约金站上4200美元，沪金站上950元关口。金价上行的动力主要 来自于美联储降息预期持续升温，美元指数高位回落。截至11月30日，市场预期12月美联储降息概率已 接近90%，美元指数上周也是从100关口持续走弱。短期预计金价偏强运行，但短期金价走势相较于白 银明显疲软，这可能是市场风险偏好切换所致。 ...

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 12月1日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 963.28 | 1.33% | 342979 | 205325 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 乌总统泽连斯基签署法令，国家安全与国防委员会秘书乌梅罗夫将率代表团与美国谈判。代表团成员包 括总统办公室顾问、国防部情报总局局长等多位高级官员。 特朗普宣布终止拜登任内通过'自动签名笔'签署的所有文件（约92%）的效力，并威胁对拜登提出伪证 罪指控。此外，特朗普与委内瑞拉总统马杜罗通话讨论可能的美委领导人会晤，但目前尚无具体计划。 美国贸易代表办公室宣布，将针对中国技术转让和知识产权问题的301条款关税豁免延长至2026年11月 10日。原定豁免条款将于2025年11月29日到期。 美国总统特朗普与日本首相高市早苗通话，建议日本不要在台湾主权问题上挑衅北京。特朗普未提出具 体要求。 【机构观点】 大有期货：市场在货币政策宽松预期与地缘风险双重推动下整体走强，白银表现尤为亮眼。由于美国经 济数据疲软强化了市场对美联 ...