花旗预计人民币兑美元到年底将升向6.8，期间可能出现波动。 Xiangrong Yu等花旗经济学家在报告中写道，预计人民币兑美元将在未来6-12个月升至6.8，预计该货币 对未来三个月可能在6.9左右波动。 花旗表示，2026年人民币波动性可能上升，但整体偏向升值。 该行表示："央行可能已部分通过影响汇率来锚定外部波动下的预期。我们认为，这种策略在2026年可 能不再必要，可能会'有管理的升值'。" 花旗还表示，中国推进人民币国际化和缓和贸易紧张局势的目标或支撑人民币走强。 花旗预计人民币兑美元到年底将升向6.8，期间可能出现波动。 Xiangrong Yu等花旗经济学家在报告中写道，预计人民币兑美元将在未来6-12个月升至6.8，预计该货币 对未来三个月可能在6.9左右波动。 花旗表示，2026年人民币波动性可能上升，但整体偏向升值。 该行表示："央行可能已部分通过影响汇率来锚定外部波动下的预期。我们认为，这种策略在2026年可 能不再必要，可能会'有管理的升值'。" 花旗还表示，中国推进人民币国际化和缓和贸易紧张局势的目标或支撑人民币走强。 责任编辑：于健 SF069 责任编辑：于健 SF069 ...

来源：中国银行 2025年，银行间市场熊猫债呈现"量增、面广、质优"的鲜明特征：全市场发行规模达1733亿元，外资机 构发行金额占比跃升至50%，美国、英国等市场新发行人相继亮相。这一系列数据，有力彰显了全球发 行人对中国市场的坚定信心。 作为熊猫债市场的开拓者、实践者和领航者，中国银行2025年承销规模近380亿元，稳居市场首位，已 连续十二年蝉联熊猫债市场承销商榜首。凭借全球网络布局和专业积淀，中国银行参与外资熊猫债承销 份额超90%，业务版图实现全球五大洲全覆盖，并先后推动一系列里程碑式项目落地： 牵头助力沙迦酋长国政府重返熊猫债市场发行20亿元债券，推动中阿金融合作持续深化； 牵头协助联昌银行成功首发30亿元熊猫债，创下马来西亚市场熊猫债金额之最； 牵头完成巴克莱银行首笔20亿元熊猫债，实现英国发行人的熊猫债市场首次亮相。 截至目前，中国银行已累计协助77家境外优质客户发行熊猫债309支，参与全市场超过半数熊猫债的发 行工作，承销规模超过2700亿元。中国银行将继续依托全球化服务网络和跨境金融优势，持续丰富人民 币国际使用场景，为助推金融市场双向开放、提升人民币国际影响力贡献更大力量。 责任编辑：曹睿 ...

专题：新引擎新图景丨金融新启航 在即将开启的"十五五"时期，中国金融体系正站上新的历史关口。"加快建设金融强国"写入规划纲要， 大力发展金融"五篇大文章"，为新质生产力提供支撑、推动实体经济跃升。金融体系的发展重心正向更 高质量、更强韧性迈进。 在此背景下，新浪财经推出《金融新启航·新引擎新图景》专题系列，邀请金融业界专家和学者，围 绕"十五五"新周期下的金融变革展开前瞻性研讨。本期《金融新启航·新引擎新图景》对话中国（上 海）自贸区研究院（浦东改革与发展研究院）金融研究室主任刘斌。他指出，过去十年，全球90%以上 的央行都在探索央行数字货币，虽然各国节奏不一，但中国明显走在前面。在跨境支付领域，我们需要 一套能够自主可控、为我所用的体系，来支撑人民币国际化和国家战略。 刘斌表示，从"十四五"来看，人民币国际化的推进相对温和，但进入"十五五"，无论是外部环境还是内 部条件，都会带来更明显更利好的变化。 从外部环境看，弱美元可能会成为一个阶段性的趋势。在这一背景下，全球资金开始从美元资产向包括 人民币在内的其他资产分散配置，这客观上会带动对相关货币的需求。但更重要的是人民币资产本身吸 引力的提升，这两年无论是在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to multiple macroeconomic factors and market dynamics, with the offshore RMB breaking the 7 mark being a significant event that enhances its attractiveness in global markets [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - The weakening of the US dollar index, which fell below 100, is a primary driver of the RMB's strength, influenced by expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [1][2]. - Increased demand for currency settlement by enterprises as the year-end approaches has contributed to the seasonal strengthening of the RMB [1]. - The sustained appreciation of the RMB has improved market sentiment, further pushing up its value [1]. Group 2: Implications for Offshore RMB Assets - The RMB's rise above 7 enhances the valuation attractiveness of offshore RMB assets, improving liquidity in offshore markets [2]. - The appreciation reduces the actual debt servicing costs for bonds issued in RMB, encouraging foreign institutions to issue "dim sum bonds" [2]. - A narrowing or even inversion of the interest rate differential between China and the US lowers the opportunity cost of holding RMB-denominated assets [2]. Group 3: Future Trends in Offshore Markets - If the RMB continues to appreciate moderately in 2026, the offshore market is expected to transition from a "liquidity market" to a "deep allocation market," with more diverse issuers seeking low-cost financing [3]. - The offshore RMB interest rate curve is anticipated to become smoother, and the range of derivative products will expand, indicating a shift towards quality improvement in RMB internationalization [3]. - Recent reports indicate a slight increase in China's offshore financial index, with growth in offshore bond issuance and cross-border RMB transactions, reflecting a structural upgrade in the offshore financial system [3]. Group 4: Strategic Development of Offshore Financial Markets - The demand for offshore RMB is driven by China's growing economic and political status globally, positioning it as a central player in international finance [4]. - Future developments in offshore finance will require institutional openness to attract relevant factors and enhance the internationalization of the RMB [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Chinese government bond market has undergone deep calibration amid frequent macro narratives and intense long-short logic battles, characterized by record supply and a proactive issuance pace in the primary market, effectively supporting active fiscal policies while the secondary market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations in the 10-year bond yield, which gradually shifted downward throughout the year [1][13]. Group 1: Primary Market Dynamics - In 2025, the primary market for government bonds achieved a historic leap under the theme of "active fiscal policy moderately strengthened, quality improved," with notable features including increased supply scale, scientifically advanced issuance pace, and continuous optimization of maturity structure [2][15]. - The total issuance of government bonds reached a historic high of 16,014.02 billion yuan, a significant increase of 28.37% compared to 12,474.83 billion yuan in 2024, with 206 bonds issued throughout the year [2][15]. - The issuance of special bonds focused on long-term funding for national strategic security areas and key projects, with the issuance of ultra-long special bonds reaching 1.3 trillion yuan, expected to significantly boost annual GDP growth [5][19]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The overall issuance interest rates of government bonds declined, effectively guiding the financing costs across society. The short-term interest rates (1-3 years) ranged from 1.16% to 1.79%, while the 10-year bond issuance rate stabilized around 1.78% [6][19]. - The systematic decline in issuance costs of government bonds, as a risk-free rate anchor, directly contributed to the reduction of comprehensive financing costs in the bond market and the real economy, achieving efficient unity between fiscal sustainability and financial benefits to the real sector [6][19]. Group 3: Secondary Market Developments - The secondary market for government bonds in 2025 was characterized by complex dynamics, with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating between approximately 1.6% and 1.9%, undergoing a "four-round game" of expectations that ultimately established a new oscillating equilibrium [7][21]. - The first round saw a rapid correction of overly optimistic expectations regarding monetary easing, with yields rebounding nearly 40 basis points by mid-March [9][21]. - The fourth round featured a key institutional benefit with the central bank's announcement to restart government bond trading operations, which was interpreted as a significant step in enhancing liquidity management tools and stabilizing long-term expectations [10][22]. Group 4: Strategic Role of Government Bonds - The evolution of the government bond market in 2025 transcended mere financing and trading, extending its functions to monetary policy operations, financial openness, and the construction of the national credit system [11][23]. - The "stabilizer" and "attractiveness" roles of RMB assets have strengthened, with foreign investors steadily increasing their holdings, leading to broader inclusion of government bonds in major global bond indices [11][23]. - The modernization of government bond management, including the incorporation of bond trading into the central bank's regular monetary policy toolbox, marks a significant milestone in establishing a modern central banking system [11][23]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The government bond market is expected to continue evolving under the overarching theme of "high-quality development," balancing necessary government financing, reducing debt costs, and maintaining financial system stability [12][24]. - As market depth, product innovation, and institutional openness progress, the yield curve of government bonds will increasingly serve as a benchmark for asset pricing across society [12][24]. - Market participants will need to shift from merely chasing interest rate trends to developing a deeper understanding of macro logic, seizing structural opportunities, and effectively managing interest rate risks to succeed in the new balanced market [12][24].

Group 1 - The U.S. military operation in Venezuela, named "Operation Justice Mission," signifies a shift in the geopolitical landscape of Latin America and highlights the U.S. strategies in energy dominance, monetary systems, and military technology [2] - Venezuela, holding approximately 300 billion barrels of oil, has seen its oil production plummet to under 1 million barrels per day due to U.S. sanctions, which has severely impacted its economy and energy sector [2] - The U.S. plans to take control of Venezuela's oil industry and revert to a dollar-based settlement system, potentially nullifying existing agreements with China and jeopardizing China's investments in Venezuela [2] Group 2 - The failure of the Russian S-300 air defense system during the U.S. operation underscores the vulnerabilities of traditional military systems in modern electronic warfare, as the system became inoperable under U.S. electronic jamming [2] - The S-300's operational readiness was only 60% due to a lack of Russian technical support, which has been exacerbated by U.S. sanctions, revealing the critical need for countries to develop independent electronic warfare capabilities [2] - The incident reflects a broader trend where smaller nations without robust military technology face significant challenges against technologically advanced adversaries [2] Group 3 - The U.S. actions in Venezuela indicate a growing anxiety regarding its control over the "Global South," with potential repercussions for leftist regimes in the region and an acceleration of de-dollarization efforts in countries like Brazil and Argentina [2] - The crisis may lead to increased cooperation among China, Russia, and Iran, emphasizing the resilience of non-Western alliances and the potential for a shift in global power dynamics [2] - Following the Venezuelan incident, shipping insurance costs in the Caribbean surged by 300%, prompting some shipowners to switch to renminbi settlements, which could further undermine the credibility of the dollar system [3] Group 4 - China is advised to diversify its energy security, expand the reach of its cross-border payment system (CIPS), and enhance its military technology capabilities in response to the dual pressures from the U.S. and the evolving geopolitical landscape [3] - The Venezuelan crisis presents both challenges and opportunities for China to reform and potentially lead a consensus for a "de-hegemonization" movement among Global South nations, paving the way for a multipolar order [3] - The U.S. operation is characterized as a preventive strike to maintain its hegemonic status, yet it may inadvertently accelerate the fragmentation of global power structures [3]

数字人民币支付场景走通已不是问题，重点在于解决个人和机构的持有和应用意愿、调动商业银行推广 的积极性、明确各类相关者的义务和利益、处理好与银行账户的关系，保证跨境支付结算的顺畅平滑 文｜刘晓春 最后，实现真正的支付即结算。由于数字人民币是法定货币，支付即时到账，不需要再进行其他兑换或 托收操作。而稳定币等只是支付凭证，不是货币本身，支付后收款人还需兑换或托收法定货币才能真正 实现结算。 以上只是就业务应用角度谈成绩，数字人民币在技术创新应用方面也有许多可圈可点之处。 推广应用中存在不足 然而，虽然进行了大规模的试点，但数字人民币在推广应用中还是存在一些不足之处。这主要表现在： 民众使用的主动性不够，企事业单位持有意愿不强，商业银行缺乏推广积极性，跨境支付尚不流畅等。 究其原因，主要有以下几方面： 数字人民币自开始研究到逐步扩大试点规模，至今已经走过十个年头，取得了巨大的成就，在全球央行 数字货币领域绝无仅有。 首先，支付场景全面。数字人民币支持1000多万个场景的支付结算，可以说几乎覆盖了目前所有的支付 需求。 其次，方便性优于第三方支付等支付方式。数字人民币在支付环节的操作上，一般环境下与第三方支付 等其他 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that while the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico has surpassed that with China in August, China remains the largest trade deficit country for the U.S. when considering cumulative data [1][3] - In the first three quarters, China's trade surplus with the U.S. reached $124 billion, while Mexico's was $116.2 billion, indicating that short-term data can be misleading [3] - The article emphasizes that the trade deficit is a reflection of the structural issues in U.S. manufacturing competitiveness, as both China and Mexico contribute significantly to the U.S. trade deficit [10][15] Group 2 - China has sold off $70.3 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds in the first ten months of the year, with a recent reduction of $11.8 billion, indicating a shift in its investment strategy [5][6] - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings suggests a decreasing reliance on the dollar, as China's foreign exchange reserves amount to $3.4 trillion, but the proportion of dollar assets is shrinking [8] - The article discusses the broader implications of this trend, suggesting a move towards a more diversified reserve system and the acceleration of the internationalization of the renminbi [8][16] Group 3 - The increase in the trade deficit with Mexico is attributed to the tight cooperation within the North American supply chain and the benefits of the USMCA agreement, which poses challenges for China [10] - The ongoing trade tensions, technological restrictions, and political dynamics between the U.S. and China complicate their financial relationship, necessitating strategic flexibility for China [11] - The article concludes that the reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings by China signals a changing global financial landscape, with a trend towards "de-dollarization" and a more multipolar international monetary system [13][16]

自2005年试点启动至今，熊猫债市场已走过20年历程，经历了初期严格规范、政策放宽、制度完善和深 化改革等多个阶段。随着政策环境不断优化，境外优质发行主体和投资机构的参与积极性持续提升，熊 猫债市场在近几年进入加速扩容期。万得数据显示，2023年、2024年熊猫债发行总额分别为1544.5亿 元、1948亿元；2025年7月，熊猫债累计发行规模突破1万亿元。业内专家认为，熊猫债市场扩容既有利 于构建向境外输出人民币的市场化渠道，也有利于提升境内债券市场的国际吸引力，还有利于构建起以 熊猫债为支点的人民币国际环流，进一步拓展人民币国际投融资职能。 除了发行规模和增速显著提升，在市场结构方面，熊猫债也呈现出明显的优化趋势。目前，发行人类型 已覆盖国际开发机构、外国政府、境外金融机构及非金融企业4类。2025年有一个显著特点——外国政 府类机构、国际开发机构和跨国企业熊猫债发行活跃，较2024年全年大幅上升，显示出市场参与主体的 多元化和国际化程度不断提升。 在大公国际首席宏观分析师刘祥东看来，熊猫债市场扩容提质离不开制度型开放的持续深化，以及便利 度的明显提升。近年来，资金跨境使用、会计审计与信息披露等规则与国际 ...

在大公国际首席宏观分析师刘祥东看来，熊猫债市场扩容提质离不开制度型开放的持续深化，以及便利 度的明显提升。近年来，资金跨境使用、会计审计与信息披露等规则与国际接轨，便利化举措持续落 地。此外，产品谱系更丰富，绿色、可持续挂钩等创新品种增多，期限结构趋于中长期化，市场功能由 融资通道向高质量投融资平台演进。 "首个系列指数的发布具有里程碑式的意义，将显著提升市场透明度和流动性，为熊猫债市场发展注入 新动能。"上海金融与发展实验室主任曾刚认为，从市场影响来看，该系列指数将为熊猫债市场参与者 提供权威基准和跟踪标的，有助于吸引更多境外投资者参与我国债券市场。更重要的是，该系列指数的 推出对推进人民币国际化、扩大高水平对外开放具有积极意义，将进一步推动熊猫债市场扩容提质和规 范发展。 刘祥东表示，该系列指数的发布还为熊猫债发行和相关衍生品的设计与发行打下了基础，以"指数+衍 生品"推动市场深化与产品创新。通过提供标准化、可跟踪的基准，有助于开发挂钩指数的结构化产品 及风险管理工具，从而拓展市场深度，引导投资策略多元化，促进熊猫债市场向更高流动性、更富层次 的方向发展。 "总的来说，熊猫债正迎来前所未有的发展机遇，市场 ...