先说说美国自己的问题吧。特朗普上台后推的那些关税政策，本来想护着本土产业，结果适得其反。高关税一加，贸易伙伴们不乐意了，进口成本涨，通胀 压力大增，高盛直接把2025年美国经济衰退概率从20%调到35%。 关税平均率预期从10%拉到15%，这不光打压了出口，还让美元在国际支付里的份额缩水。2025年1月和2月，美元跨境支付占比分别掉到50.17%和48.95%， 贸易融资里虽还有81%，但也开始松动。 巴黎银行的货币策略主管彼得·瓦萨直言，美元指数今年开局这么弱，是80年代中期以来头一遭。说白了，美国贸易赤字和财政赤字双双爆表，债务占 GDP125%，谁还敢放心大胆地买美债？ 各国央行这几年动作可不小，尤其是减持美债这事儿。拿中国来说，2025年减持力度明显加大。从1月到7月，持仓量从年初的8000多亿美金一路往下走，7 月单月甩掉257亿，持仓只剩7307亿，这是2009年2月以来最低点。 整个上半年，中国减持为主，3月掉189亿，4月82亿，5月也减了点，2月虽增了235亿，但整体趋势是往下。 不是中国一个人这么干，日本和英国7月还增持了点，但法国也跟着减，全球抛售潮让美债收益率曲线陡峭起来，美国融资成本 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the source of incremental funds for China's capital market has undergone a transformative change, driven by the accumulation of significant social net wealth and low bank savings rates, leading to a shift towards capital market investments [1][8] - Liu Shijun emphasizes that the current economic challenges are primarily due to insufficient consumption rather than investment, highlighting a structural deviation in consumption patterns compared to international averages [2][3] - The need for structural reforms in three key areas is identified to effectively expand consumption, focusing on housing for new citizens, pension system reforms, and facilitating the flow of production factors between urban and rural areas [6][5] Group 2 - The capital market is expected to enter a new development phase, with a focus on nurturing large, globally competitive technology firms and a multitude of innovative small and medium enterprises [8] - Liu Shijun suggests that the capital market can enhance resource utilization efficiency, increase investors' income, and support pension expenditures in an aging society, thereby promoting consumption through wealth effects [8] - The recommendation includes implementing a balanced import-export strategy to enhance the international status of the RMB, shifting from a reliance on dollar reserves to increasing the use of RMB in global trade [8]

彼时，美元作为全球储备货币的垄断地位持续数十年，靠的是美国强势的金融系统与印钞机背书。长期 依赖意味着长期脆弱：一旦政治关系紧张，资产被"非市场化"处置的可能就变为现实。自去年开始，许 多国家央行加快了买黄金的节奏，因为黄金不同于美元国债，不能轻易凭一纸令下被没收，它是全球公 认的硬通货，是对抗金融武器化的天然盾牌。 在这种气氛中，一条看似技术性的消息具有象征意义。九月，外媒报道称中国央行正通过上海黄金交易 所与友好国家商谈，邀请它们将黄金储备存放在中国的保税仓库，而且据说已经有东南亚国家表现出了 兴趣。托管地点的转移，不只是物流安排，它背后指向"信任"的迁徙。把黄金放谁那，就等于把命脉塞 谁兜里——托管方的选择，其实是地缘政治与金融安全的投票。 定价权与钥匙的去与留 过去西方掌握了全球的黄金定价与托管体系：伦敦金库与纽约联储是黄金储备的集中地，伦敦的"良好 交割"标准与欧美的跨境清算网络相互嵌套，构成了一个难以撼动的惯性结构。许多国家甚至习惯了把 黄金留在海外，既便于交易，又兼顾声誉。可一旦托管与政治绑定，托管变成"寄存"，金虽在账上，钥 匙却不在手里。 相比之下，中国提出"你们可以放我这"，发行的是另一张 ...

"中国经过这么多年，已经积累了非常大规模的社会净财富。银行储蓄利率很低，净财富要增长只有进入资本 市场。所以资本市场增量（资金）的来源和过去已经发生了转折性变化。"9月25日，国务院发展研究中心原副 主任刘世锦在第四届五矿产业金融论坛上如此表示。 刘世锦以"'十五五'时期中国经济持续稳定高质量发展的重点、战略与政策"为题讲述建设金融强国时谈到的前 述看法。他还谈到，需求约束、消费不足是"十五五"期间我国面临的最为紧迫且严峻的挑战，建议重点推动三 个领域结构性改革以有效扩大消费。 消费结构性偏差问题"水落石出" 刘世锦表示，近年来，中国经济疫后复苏进程尽管有曲折，但总体呈现回升向好态势。前两年分别实现5.2% 和5%的增长目标，在全球各大经济体中居前。 另外，宏观经济面临日益增大的需求下降压力，GDP平减指数连续9个季度处于负增长状态。从2010年一季度 开始，中国经济增长逐步转向中速，同时约束由供给转向需求。需求约束主要不是投资不足，而是消费不足。 这依然是"十五五"时期面临的最为紧迫且严峻的挑战。 "我国消费占GDP的比重，不论是与现阶段国际平均水平相比，还是与典型经济体相同发展阶段平均水平相 比，都存在相 ...

Group 1: Diplomatic Engagement and Financial Implications - A bipartisan U.S. congressional delegation visited China for the first time since 2019, emphasizing the need for high-level dialogue between the U.S. and China [1] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang reiterated the importance of mutual respect in cooperation, while the U.S. seeks to stabilize market confidence by urging China to halt or slow down the sale of U.S. Treasury bonds [1][9] - The backdrop of these discussions includes significant concerns over U.S. Treasury market stability and the implications of China's actions on global financial markets [1][9] Group 2: Trends in U.S. Treasury Holdings - In July 2025, China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $25.7 billion, bringing its total to $730.7 billion, the lowest level since 2009 [2] - This reduction is part of a broader trend, with China having decreased its U.S. Treasury holdings by $173.2 billion in 2022, $50.8 billion in 2023, and $57.3 billion in 2024, totaling a net reduction of $53.7 billion in the first seven months of 2025 [2] Group 3: Economic and Policy Drivers - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings by China is driven by concerns over U.S. fiscal policy, including high national debt and interest payments exceeding $1 trillion annually [3] - The U.S. national debt has reached $37 trillion, leading to fears about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and the credibility of the dollar [3][8] Group 4: Comparative Analysis with Other Nations - Japan and the UK have increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, with Japan holding $1.147 trillion and the UK $858.1 billion, contrasting with China's reduction [4] - Japan's increase is attributed to trade surpluses and low domestic interest rates, while the UK's increase reflects its role as a global financial hub and the need for liquidity amid economic uncertainty [4] Group 5: Credit Ratings and Market Reactions - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to Aa1 in May 2025, reflecting concerns over fiscal sustainability and increasing deficits [5] - The downgrade may trigger passive adjustments by various institutions, impacting the demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [5] Group 6: Shift Towards Alternative Assets - Central banks are increasingly looking for reserve assets that do not rely on U.S. credit, leading to a rise in gold holdings, with China's gold reserves reaching 74.02 million ounces by August 2025 [6] - The global trend shows a significant increase in gold purchases by central banks, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [6] Group 7: Currency and Settlement Changes - The cross-border settlement of digital yuan surpassed 500 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a shift towards de-dollarization [7] - The share of the U.S. dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased to 57.7%, while the use of the yuan in cross-border payments has risen significantly [7] Group 8: U.S. Monetary Policy Responses - The Federal Reserve has expanded its balance sheet from $4.2 trillion in 2020 to $9 trillion in 2025 through quantitative easing to stabilize the Treasury market [8] - The ongoing fiscal debates in the U.S. Congress could lead to a government shutdown, further impacting the credibility of U.S. debt [8] Group 9: Future Observations and Implications - The visit of the U.S. delegation to China highlights the urgency of addressing financial risks and the need for cooperation on key issues [9] - The potential visit of former President Trump to China could signify a shift in diplomatic and financial strategies between the two nations [9][10]

Group 1: Banking Industry - The report tracks the progress of deposit migration from the perspective of financial system liquidity, indicating that the trend of deposit migration continues, reflected in the activation of deposits and increased activity in capital markets, although the pace has slightly slowed down due to three main factors: the front-loaded fiscal and credit monetary supply in the first half of the year, increased investor divergence after the stock market rise, and a slowdown in the return of foreign exchange funds amid export deceleration [5] - The estimated potential for deposit migration remains at 5-7 trillion yuan, suggesting that this trend may continue in the medium term despite the current slowdown [5] Group 2: Macroeconomy - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is a critical period for China's financial cycle and economic transformation, with the "15th Five-Year Plan" expected to enhance supply capacity while addressing debt and demand issues arising from real estate adjustments [7] - To maintain GDP growth within a certain range, a rebalancing of supply and demand is necessary, particularly in boosting demand through debt resolution, consumption promotion, and fiscal reforms [7] - Policies aimed at stimulating demand may also benefit supply in the long term, with a focus on technological innovation and the internationalization of the renminbi amid changes in the international monetary system [8] Group 3: Strategy - In August, while A-shares, particularly the STAR Market, were strong, Hong Kong stocks remained stagnant. However, in September, A-shares entered a phase of fluctuation while Hong Kong stocks gained momentum, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve easing and AI internet developments [10] - The report discusses the potential for market leadership among the three regions (China, Hong Kong, and the US) and identifies which industries may offer greater value [10] Group 4: Automotive and Components Industry - The trend towards liquid cooling solutions in data centers is driving increased demand for liquid cooling components, with domestic automotive parts companies leveraging their capabilities in thermal management to expand into this market [14] - The rise in AI chip power consumption is accelerating the application of liquid cooling solutions, enhancing the demand for core components like quick-connect fittings (UQD) [14] - The domestic supply chain possesses cost advantages and significant potential for domestic substitution in the liquid cooling market [14]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Digital Renminbi International Operation Center in Shanghai marks a significant step towards the internationalization of the digital renminbi, facilitating cross-border payment and blockchain services, and enhancing the global influence of the renminbi [5][6][10]. Group 1: Digital Renminbi Platforms - The Digital Renminbi International Operation Center has developed three main platforms: a cross-border digital payment platform, a blockchain service platform, and a digital asset platform, aimed at addressing traditional cross-border payment challenges and enhancing transaction efficiency [7][8]. - The blockchain service platform and digital asset platform are built on the same blockchain infrastructure, allowing for integrated operations and improved regulatory compliance [4][8]. Group 2: Internationalization of Renminbi - The operation of the Digital Renminbi International Operation Center signifies a shift from domestic trials to international applications, enhancing the renminbi's role in global trade and investment [6][10]. - The center aims to create new opportunities for the renminbi in international transactions, particularly in countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, thereby increasing China's influence in the global monetary system [6][10]. Group 3: Shanghai as a Financial Hub - Shanghai was chosen for the Digital Renminbi International Operation Center due to its comprehensive financial market, high degree of openness, and established financial technology ecosystem, positioning it as a key node in the global financial network [9][10]. - The center's operation is expected to significantly enhance Shanghai's international financial status, potentially generating over 100 billion yuan in added value to the digital finance industry by 2030 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Digital Renminbi International Operation Center in Shanghai marks a significant step towards the internationalization of the digital renminbi, enhancing Shanghai's role as an international financial center [1][4]. Group 1: Launch of Three Major Business Platforms - The Digital Renminbi International Operation Center, managed by the People's Bank of China, aims to build and operate cross-border and blockchain infrastructure for the digital renminbi [2]. - The three platforms launched include: - Cross-border digital payment platform, which addresses pain points in traditional cross-border payments [2]. - Blockchain service platform, which supports standardized blockchain transactions and on-chain digital renminbi payments [2]. - Digital asset platform, which facilitates the issuance, registration, custody, and compliant trading of digital assets [2]. - These platforms are designed to improve payment efficiency, ensure transaction traceability and security, and lay the groundwork for future digital financial asset trading [2]. Group 2: New Path for Renminbi Internationalization - The Digital Renminbi International Operation Center opens new pathways for the internationalization of the renminbi, leveraging technological advantages to overcome existing barriers [3]. - It proposes a new model of "payment first—investment follows—reserve development" to enhance the renminbi's acceptance in international markets [3]. - The establishment of a separate cross-border financial infrastructure for the digital renminbi reduces reliance on traditional international payment systems, thereby increasing China's influence and financial security in the global financial system [3]. Group 3: Empowering Shanghai's International Financial Center - The operation of the Digital Renminbi International Operation Center aligns with the core functions of Shanghai's international financial center, enhancing its financial infrastructure and market stability [4]. - The center's presence is expected to strengthen Shanghai's position in global financial infrastructure and attract related industry enterprises, fostering an ecosystem [5]. - By leading in digital currency applications, Shanghai can transition from being a "rule taker" to a "rule maker" in the evolving landscape of international financial regulations [5].

央行数据显示，截至2025年8月末，中国债券市场余额达192万亿元人民币，2025年1-8月债券发行规模 超59万亿元人民币，同比增长14%，债券净融资11.8万亿元人民币，占同期社会融资规模增量的 44.5%，已成为实体经济融资的第二大渠道。 在国际化进程中，中国债券市场的"吸引力磁场"持续增强。业内专家表示，中国债券已先后纳入彭博巴 克莱、摩根大通、富时罗素三大国际债券指数，当前在富时罗素全球国债指数中占比升至全球第二，在 彭博巴克莱全球综合指数中占比升至全球第三，均超纳入时的预计占比，充分体现全球投资者对人民币 债券资产的信心。 从实际持仓与交易数据来看，截至2025年8月末，来自80多个国家和地区的1170家境外机构在华持债约4 万亿元人民币；2025年1-8月，境外机构债券现券成交规模约11.8万亿元人民币，其中"债券通"北向通规 模达7.2万亿元人民币，南北双向交易保持活跃；"互换通"累计成交1.5万多笔，累计成交名义本金约8.2 万亿元人民币，当前成交规模较上线初期增长9倍多。 9月26日晚，中国人民银行、中国证监会、国家外汇管理局联合发布《关于进一步支持境外机构投资者 在中国债券市场开展债券回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Digital Renminbi International Operation Center in Shanghai marks a significant step towards the internationalization of the digital renminbi, facilitating cross-border payment solutions and enhancing the renminbi's role in global trade and finance [7][8][10]. Group 1: Digital Renminbi Platforms - The Digital Renminbi International Operation Center has developed three main platforms: a cross-border digital payment platform, a blockchain service platform, and a digital asset platform, aimed at addressing traditional cross-border payment challenges and enhancing financial service efficiency [10][11]. - The cross-border digital payment platform focuses on supporting the internationalization of the renminbi and aims to resolve pain points in traditional cross-border payments through technological integration and innovation [10][11]. - The blockchain service platform is designed to facilitate standardized blockchain transaction transfers and on-chain digital renminbi payment services, while the digital asset platform supports the issuance, registration, custody, and trading of compliant digital assets [10][11]. Group 2: Internationalization of the Renminbi - The operation of the Digital Renminbi International Operation Center signifies a shift from domestic trials to international applications, enhancing the renminbi's influence in international settlements [7][8]. - Analysts believe that the center's operation will create new opportunities for the renminbi in global trade and investment, particularly in countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [8][12]. - The center aims to establish a standardized and regulated cross-border payment infrastructure, improving the convenience and acceptance of the renminbi in international trade and investment [8][10]. Group 3: Shanghai as a Financial Hub - Shanghai was chosen as the location for the Digital Renminbi International Operation Center due to its comprehensive financial market, high degree of openness, and established financial technology ecosystem [13][14]. - The center's establishment is expected to enhance Shanghai's role as a digital financial hub, facilitating the internationalization of the renminbi and attracting more international financial institutions and investors [13][14]. - By optimizing cross-border payment and financing mechanisms, the center will contribute to Shanghai's goal of becoming a global center for renminbi assets, potentially generating over 100 billion yuan in digital financial industry value by 2030 [14].