Group 1 - South Korea has unexpectedly shifted its stance in handling China-US relations, imposing anti-dumping duties on China while showing intentions to engage in Taiwan Strait issues [1][3] - The cancellation of the scheduled US-Korea "2+2" economic talks did not deter the South Korean economic delegation from pursuing tariff negotiations, indicating a strong commitment to international trade cooperation [1][3] - South Korea's Ministry of Trade decided to impose temporary anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled steel plates and single-mode optical fibers from China, aiming to protect domestic industries during formal investigations [3][4] Group 2 - The economic relationship between China and South Korea is closely intertwined, and the imposition of anti-dumping duties by South Korea could disrupt normal trade and cooperation between the two countries [4][6] - Analysts suggest that while South Korea may increase military spending, the likelihood of direct involvement in Taiwan Strait affairs remains low, although vigilance is necessary due to potential trade-offs with the US [6] - China has expressed strong opposition to any actions that sacrifice its interests for US concessions, indicating readiness to take decisive measures to protect its rights in the international trade environment [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to continue to decline in the short term, while the upside potential for silver is largely saturated. Gold is relatively weak, and silver is neutral. The price ranges are 760 - 780 yuan/gram for gold and 8800 - 9400 yuan/kilogram for silver [3]. - The core trading logic of gold in the first half of the year under the dimension of "uncertainty" has basically ended. The short - term inflation expectation, an important factor supporting the gold price, has also significantly declined. The US monthly economic data remains resilient, leading to the inevitable rebound of the US dollar and the decline of the gold price. However, there is strong capital support below the gold price after the decline [3]. - The rise of silver is mainly affected by liquidity and the recovery of macro - risk appetite. With the end of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the upside potential for silver is considered to be saturated, but it still shows a strong direction and a high - level oscillation pattern [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review - **Price Performance**: This week, London gold fell by - 0.35%, and London silver rose by 1.22%. The gold - to - silver ratio dropped from 87.5 to 86.3, the 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.96%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.4% (2 - year at 3.91%), and the US dollar index was recorded at 97.6. Among various gold and silver varieties, there were different price changes, such as Comex gold 2510 falling by - 0.51% and Comex silver 2510 falling by - 0.26% [3][4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volumes and open interests of different gold and silver futures contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai silver 2510 increased by 64,411 hands, while its open interest decreased by 28,849 hands [4]. - **Comex and ETF Position Changes**: The non - commercial net long positions of Comex gold and silver futures and options increased, and the positions of gold and silver ETFs also increased. For example, the non - commercial net long position of Comex gold futures and options increased by 41,524 hands, and the position of SPDR gold ETF increased by 13.47 tons [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of COMEX gold increased by 0.57 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio fell to 54.4%. The inventory of COMEX silver increased by 3.08 million ounces to 500.32 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 39.3%. The inventory of gold futures increased by 1401 tons, and the inventory of silver futures decreased by 23.82 tons to 1187 tons [35][37][39]. - **Domestic Spot - Futures Spread Changes**: This week, the gold spot - futures spread was - 3.71 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range. The silver spot - futures spread was - 20 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [15][17]. - **Domestic Inter - month Spread Changes**: The gold inter - month spread was 6.9 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The silver inter - month spread was 63 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [21][26]. - **Domestic - Overseas Spread Changes**: The spread of silver T + D to London silver converged to - 559, and the spread of gold T + D to London gold was 4.77 [4]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index fell by - 0.80%, and other exchange rates such as the euro against the US dollar rose by 0.99% [4]. 3.2 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spreads**: This week, the spread between London spot gold and COMEX gold主力 fell to - 2.28 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - 9.4 US dollars/ounce. The spread between London spot silver and COMEX silver主力 converged to - 0.188 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - 0.285 US dollars/ounce [9][12]. - **Domestic Spot - Futures Spreads**: The gold spot - futures spread was - 3.71 yuan/gram, and the silver spot - futures spread was - 20 yuan/gram [15][17]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The gold inter - month spread was 6.9 yuan/gram, and the silver inter - month spread was 63 yuan/gram [21][26]. - **Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Costs**: The report calculated the cross - month positive arbitrage delivery costs for gold and silver in different combinations, such as buying TD and selling Shanghai gold, buying Shanghai gold December and selling June, etc. [29][30][31][32]. - **Delivery Fee Payment Directions of Shanghai Gold Exchange**: This week, the gold delivery fee at the gold exchange was mainly paid by the long side to the short side, indicating strong delivery power. The silver delivery fee was mainly paid by the short side to the long side, indicating strong collection and delivery power [33]. - **Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The inventory of COMEX gold increased, and the registered warrant ratio decreased. The inventory of COMEX silver increased, and the registered warrant ratio increased. The inventory of gold futures increased, and the inventory of silver futures decreased [35][37][39]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions**: This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, and the non - commercial net long position of silver decreased slightly [41]. - **ETF Positions**: This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF increased by 8.59 tons, and the inventory of the silver SLV ETF increased by 512.88 tons [44][46]. - **Gold - to - Silver Ratio**: This week, the gold - to - silver ratio dropped from 87.5 to 86.1 [48]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold and Silver Lease Rates**: This week, the 1M gold lease rate was - 0.22%, and the 1M silver lease rate was 3.43% [50]. 3.3 Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [55]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: Not specifically analyzed in detail in the summary part of the report, but relevant data such as non - farm employment numbers, unemployment claims, labor force participation rate, and average working hours were presented [62][63][64][65][66]. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: Not specifically analyzed in detail in the summary part of the report [67]. - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: Not specifically analyzed in detail in the summary part of the report [71]. - **Fed Rate - cut Probability**: The report presented the Fed rate - cut probabilities in different regions and at different time points, such as a - 2.6% rate - cut probability for the US on 07/30/2025 [72].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. It currently lacks fundamental guidance, with trading light and remaining in a volatile pattern. The US cotton growth is good, and export sales are in line with seasonal patterns. The tariff negotiations between the US and other countries also meet expectations. For domestic cotton futures, they maintained high - level volatility this week. The concern about tight old - crop inventory has been fully traded, and factors such as potential low - value warehouse receipts for September delivery and a cooling financial market sentiment have stopped the upward momentum. In the short term, the expectation of tight old - crop inventory will support prices, and as long as the textile enterprise operating rate does not drop significantly, cotton demand will be stable, with limited downward pressure on cotton prices. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the market game under the delivery logic after mid - August [1][2][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情数据 - ICE cotton main contract: opened at 68.74, reached a high of 68.99, a low of 67.80, closed at 68.23, down 0.53 or - 0.77%. The trading volume was 74,713 lots, a decrease of 14,474 lots, and the open interest was 154,997 lots, an increase of 2,253 lots. - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: opened at 14,295, reached a high of 14,330, a low of 14,095, closed at 14,170, down 100 or - 0.70%. The trading volume was 1,226,001 lots, a decrease of 230,373 lots, and the open interest was 504,805 lots, a decrease of 75,968 lots. - Cotton yarn main contract: opened at 20,540, reached a high of 20,540, a low of 20,270, closed at 20,370, down 150 or - 0.73%. The trading volume was 48,652 lots, an increase of 9,334 lots, and the open interest was 10,802 lots, a decrease of 8,256 lots [5] 3.2.基本面 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton: Narrowly fluctuated this week, with good US cotton new - crop growth, average but seasonally - compliant export sales, and tariff negotiations in line with expectations. Trading was light due to lack of fundamental guidance [6] - US cotton weekly export sales data (as of July 17): 2024/25 US upland cotton net weekly signing was - 0.74 million tons due to contract cancellations. 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 3.01 million tons. 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 4.19 million tons, up 18% week - on - week but down 12% from the four - week average. The total signed and sold volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton in 2024/25 was 2.7746 billion tons, accounting for 108% of the annual predicted total export volume. The cumulative export shipment volume was 2.539 billion tons, accounting for 92% of the annual total signed volume [6] - Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries: - India: Sowing progress was slower than last year. As of July 18, the cotton planting area was 9.86 million hectares. Cotton sales by the Cotton Corporation of India were suspended. In May, raw cotton imports were 50,000 tons, up 10% from April and higher than last year. The cumulative import volume in the first ten months of this season was 569,000 tons. May raw cotton exports were 21,000 tons, down 4% from the previous month and 47% from May 2024. May cotton yarn exports were 83,900 tons, down 4% from April and 8% from last year. May textile exports were $2.013 billion, up 5% month - on - month and 10% from May 2024 [7] - Brazil: The US tariff increase on Brazil raised concerns in the domestic textile industry. As of July 18, the national cotton picking progress was about 15%. The 2024 - season cotton primary sales were almost completed, and about 70% of the 2025 - season and 25% of the 2026 - season cotton had been sold [8] - Pakistan: Cotton import demand was weak. The new - season cotton output was expected to be between 6.5 and 7.5 million bales. The policy of an 18% sales tax on cotton and cotton yarn imports was yet to be implemented, causing market uncertainty. In June, the export value of the five major textile categories was $1.27 billion, slightly higher than May and up 9% from last year. The cumulative export value in the 2024/25 fiscal year was $14.74 billion, up 8% from 2023/24 [9][10] - Bangladesh: Focused on US tariff negotiations. Textile mills mainly purchased for near - term needs. The government cancelled the 2% advance income tax on imported raw materials. Exporters to the US were worried as the August 1 tariff negotiation deadline approached. If no agreement was reached, a 35% tariff would be imposed on imports from Bangladesh [10] - Southeast Asian textile industry operating rates: As of July 25, India's textile enterprise operating rate was 73.5%, Vietnam's was 64%, and Pakistan's was 63.5% [11] 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton spot price: Slightly declined with weak trading. Some 2023/24 and 2024/25 cotton spot quotes increased, and some cotton merchants lowered the basis [12] - Cotton warehouse receipts (as of July 25): There were 9,265 registered first - grade cotton warehouse receipts and 350 pending warehouse receipts, totaling 9,615, equivalent to 403,830 tons. Among the 24/25 registered warehouse receipts, there were 8,891 Xinjiang cottons and 374 local cottons [12] - Downstream trading: Slightly improved. In the pure - cotton yarn market, most spinning mills' quotes were stable, with actual transactions approaching quotes. Air - jet spinning sales were relatively good. Spinning mills' profits remained unimproved, and some continued to limit production. In the all - cotton grey fabric market, the off - season continued, with some local orders and stable quotes. Some weaving mills increased their operating rates, but overall it remained low. Inventory decreased slightly but remained high [13] 3.3.操作建议 - ICE cotton: Maintain a volatile trend. There is no new downside risk currently, but the good US cotton growth and uncertain global cotton consumption limit its upward momentum. It needs a driver to break through the oscillation range. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations between the US and China, India, etc. - Domestic cotton futures: Short - term support from the expectation of tight old - crop inventory. As long as the textile enterprise operating rate does not drop significantly, cotton demand will be stable, and the downward pressure on cotton prices is limited. Technically, pay attention to the 13,600 - 13,900 support range. Also, pay attention to policy trends and the market game under the delivery logic after mid - August [18]

Group 1 - The core agreement between the US and Japan involves a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, with a total investment commitment of $550 billion from Japan to the US [2][4] - The agreement includes a 12.5% tariff on Japanese automobiles, in addition to a previous 2.5% tariff, totaling 15%, while steel and aluminum tariffs remain at 50% [2][4] - There are ongoing disputes regarding the details of the agreement, particularly concerning the implementation date of the 15% tariff and the interpretation of the $550 billion investment [4][5] Group 2 - Japan plans to increase its import of US rice by 75%, which will raise the total import volume to approximately 600,000 tons, while maintaining a minimum market access quota [6] - The agreement also includes significant commitments in agriculture, energy, manufacturing, and aerospace, with Japan agreeing to purchase $8 billion worth of US goods [5][6] - The Japanese government emphasizes that the increase in rice imports will not harm domestic farmers, despite concerns about the impact on local agriculture [6] Group 3 - South Korea is under pressure to negotiate a similar agreement with the US, especially in light of the recent US-Japan deal [7][8] - The new South Korean government is considering leveraging a planned investment of over $100 billion by Korean companies in the US as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations [7][8] - If South Korea fails to reach a new agreement before the August 1 deadline, a 25% tariff could severely impact its industries, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and automobiles [8][9]

Group 1 - The EU and the US are set to hold a face-to-face meeting in Scotland to discuss trade cooperation and disputes, following a phone call between EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Trump [1] - The upcoming meeting is viewed as a significant step in the ongoing tariff negotiations between the EU and the US, with Trump expressing optimism about reaching an agreement [1] - The US stock market reacted positively to the news, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new historical highs [1] Group 2 - The three major US stock indices have collectively risen, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.26%, S&P 500 up 1.46%, and Nasdaq up 1.02% for the week [3] - The S&P 500 index has set a new closing record for the fifth consecutive time, surpassing the 6300-point mark for the first time [3] - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, 9 sectors saw gains, with the materials sector leading with a 1.17% increase [3] Group 3 - The EU has approved a retaliatory tariff list against US products worth €93 billion, combining two previous lists targeting various goods [8] - The first round of tariffs, amounting to approximately €21 billion, was approved earlier this year, while a second list worth about €72 billion was recently passed, focusing on high-value industrial products [8] - Trump announced a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1, with potential for further increases if the EU retaliates [8] Group 4 - The EU has indicated that if a satisfactory trade agreement is not reached before the US tariffs take effect, it will implement countermeasures starting August 7 [9] - Concerns have been raised on Wall Street regarding the potential for a market correction due to increased speculative trading [10] - Margin debt levels on the New York Stock Exchange have surged, indicating a potential overheating in the credit market [10]

Group 1 - The US-Japan tariff agreement represents a significant advancement in economic and trade relations, with Japan committing to procure billions of dollars in defense equipment annually [1] - Japan's procurement decision is based on its established defense force enhancement plan, indicating a commitment to strengthening its national defense capabilities [1] - The agreement is expected to increase Japan's annual procurement amount by approximately $3 billion, equivalent to about 440 billion yen, reflecting efforts to improve trade relations with the US [1] Group 2 - Japan will immediately increase rice imports from the US by 75% and raise the total procurement of agricultural products like soybeans and corn to $8 billion, approximately 1.2 trillion yen [2] - The agreement acknowledges US safety standards for the automotive industry, potentially providing new opportunities and challenges for Japanese automakers in the US market [2] Group 3 - The White House spokesperson stated that the negotiations led by former President Trump resulted in an additional investment of $150 billion, bringing the total investment to $550 billion [4] - The reduction of Japan's "reciprocal tariffs" from 25% to 15% was attributed to Japan's innovative financing proposals, with future evaluations of the agreement's execution planned quarterly [5] - The agreement includes a reduction of additional tariffs on automobiles, reflecting a consensus and mutual support in economic cooperation between the US and Japan [5]

Core Points - Marcos' visit to the US aimed to negotiate tariff concessions and strengthen defense support from the US amid rising tensions in the South China Sea [1][5] - Trump's unexpected announcement of a visit to China during the meeting with Marcos undermined the latter's plans and expectations for US support [1][5] - The lack of substantial tariff benefits, with only a minor adjustment from 20% to 19%, led to criticism from Philippine media regarding Marcos' perceived capitulation to the US [5][6] Group 1 - Marcos sought tariff concessions and defense support from the US due to escalating South China Sea tensions [1][5] - Trump's intention to visit China was a significant setback for Marcos, indicating a lack of US commitment to confront China on behalf of the Philippines [1][5] - The Philippine media expressed disappointment, labeling Marcos' actions as "selling out" to the US [5][6] Group 2 - Marcos' failure to secure meaningful tariff reductions raises concerns about his political future, especially with upcoming midterm elections [6] - The rise of candidates from the Aquino family, focusing on economic and social issues, poses a challenge to Marcos' administration [6] - Public interest in the South China Sea dispute is low, with citizens prioritizing economic development and living standards over geopolitical tensions [6]

Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new historical highs, driven by strong earnings reports and optimism regarding a potential trade agreement between the US and EU [1] - As of the market close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.47% to 44,901.92 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.4% to 6,388.64 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.24% to 21,108.32 points [1] - European major indices showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX index down 0.32% and France's CAC40 index up 0.21% [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - US President Trump and EU Commission President von der Leyen agreed to hold face-to-face talks on July 27 to discuss trade cooperation and disputes [2] - Trump announced a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1, citing long-standing trade imbalances, and warned of additional tariffs if the EU retaliates [2] - The EU has approved retaliatory tariffs on US products worth €93 billion, combining two lists of tariffs targeting various goods including agricultural and industrial products [3] Group 3: Speculative Trading Risks - Wall Street analysts have raised warnings about increased speculative trading, which may heighten the risk of market corrections [5] - Goldman Sachs noted that speculative trading levels are at historical highs, with short positions in certain stocks rising over 60% [6] - Deutsche Bank highlighted that margin debt levels among NYSE investors have reached a "heated" state, with over $1 trillion in loans issued to clients [6] Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - International precious metal futures saw a general decline, with COMEX gold futures down 1.04% to $3,338.50 per ounce [8] - Crude oil prices also fell, with the main contract dropping 1.45% to $65.07 per barrel, amid complex market dynamics influenced by geopolitical risks and macroeconomic concerns [8] - Agricultural futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed lower across the board, with soybean futures down 0.24% and corn futures down 0.42% [8]

Group 1 - Brazilian President Lula stated that Brazil remains open to negotiating tariff issues but has not received any communication from the U.S. expressing a desire for dialogue [1] - Lula emphasized that the outcome of former President Bolsonaro's case will be determined by the Brazilian judiciary [1] - Brazil firmly upholds its national sovereignty and does not accept interference from any country [1]

以下文章来源于日经中文网 ，作者日经中文网 日经中文网 . 编制日经指数的《日本经济新闻》的中文版。提供日本、中国、欧美财经金融信息、商务、企业、高科技报道、评论和专栏。 日美两国政府就为期近100天的关税谈判达成协议。在成为谈判最后时限的8月1日之前，支持基础出现动摇的美国总统特朗普为了取得成果，一口气加快 了达成妥协的步伐。此举意在将日美协议作为与欧盟（EU）等剩余地区和国家谈判的立足点。 封面来源 ｜ Unsplash 特朗普称"想进行谈判" "总统的日程空着，总统想进行谈判"，在协议前一天的7月21日晚，在华盛顿近郊的美国商务部长卢特尼克的私宅。坐在卢特尼克对面的日本经济财政兼 再生相赤泽亮正被如此告知。 美国白宫总统办公室，特朗普向坐在对面的赤泽亮正连声提问，"是否从波音公司采购？"赤泽亮正回答说"会"。特朗普还当场用笔将白板上写的日本投资支援额 从"4000亿美元"改为"5000亿美元"。"急于达成协议的不是日本，而是美国"…… 与卢特尼克的会谈持续到晚上11点左右，达到2个多小时，成为设想第二天与美国总统特朗普面对面谈判的预演。日本政府相关人士透露，赤泽亮正在羽 田机场起飞时并未设想与特朗普会面 ...