Overall Core View - The supply-demand contradiction of lead is still expected to exist, and the price is supported [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Market Data Summary Futures Price - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day; the closing price of the 3M electronic disk of LME lead was 2,015 dollars/ton, up 0.17% [1] Trading Volume - The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 34,982 lots, a decrease of 9,677 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 6,342 lots, a decrease of 3,570 lots [1] Open Interest - The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 41,631 lots, a decrease of 3,239 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 136,798 lots, an increase of 595 lots [1] Premium and Discount - The premium and discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -45 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium and discount was -25.97 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.47 dollars/ton [1] Import and Export Profit and Loss - The import profit and loss of lead ingot spot was -699.81 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.39 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three was -566.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.6 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 60,059 tons, unchanged; the inventory of LME lead was 262,500 tons, a decrease of 2,425 tons [1] Other Prices - The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1] Comprehensive Profit and Loss - The comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -507 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton [1] News Summary - There are potential "tariff wars" between Brazil and the US, the EU and the US, and the US and Japan. Brazil may respond if Trump doesn't change his mind, the EU may impose over 90 billion euros in countermeasures if tariff negotiations don't progress, and Trump plans to impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods while Japan will invest 550 billion dollars in the US [2] - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) stated that the global lead market had a supply surplus of 1,000 tons in May 2025, compared with a supply shortage of 6,000 tons in April [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2]

当地时间22日，法国工业与能源部长马克.费拉奇表示，若在8月1日前未能就关税问题与美国达成协 议，欧盟将启动反制措施，对价值超过900亿欧元的美国产品加征关税。首轮反制规模为210亿欧元，由 欧盟委员会届时立即实施。费拉奇称，当前谈判未见成效，欧方须调整策略，展现更强硬、可信的立 场。(央视新闻) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the recent market risk appetite remains high and the US signals on tariff negotiations are optimistic, with the upcoming tariff deferral period in early August, gold is expected to gradually return to the safe - haven logic in the short term, but the rise may be slow due to the strong US economic data and the post - poned Fed rate - cut expectation to September. It is recommended to buy on dips. For silver, while the recovery of risk appetite benefits its industrial attributes, there is a risk of weakening in the medium - term real demand, so cautious chasing of gains is advised [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, considering the ongoing trade war, the probability of Fed rate cuts this year, global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, the center of gravity of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Precious Metals - **Precious Metal Prices**: On July 21, 2025, London gold spot was at $3367.28/ounce, London silver spot at $38.30/ounce, COMEX gold at $3374.80/ounce, and COMEX silver at $38.60/ounce. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also had corresponding values. Compared with July 18, the price of London gold spot increased by 0.8%, London silver spot decreased by 0.1%, etc. [3] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On July 21, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 2.02 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 14 yuan/kg. Compared with July 18, the changes in price spreads and ratios varied, such as the gold TD - SHFE active price spread increasing by 1.0% [3] 3.2 Position Data - **COMEX and ETF Positions**: As of July 15, 2025 (weekly data), for COMEX gold, non - commercial long positions were 270227 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 57112 contracts, and the net long position was 213115 contracts. For gold ETF - SPDR, the position on July 18 was 943.62 tons, a decrease of 0.51% compared with July 17 [3] - **Inventory Data**: On July 21, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 28857 kg, with no change compared with July 18; SHFE silver inventory was 1204466 kg, a decrease of 0.55% compared with July 18 [3] 3.3 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: On July 21, 2025, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 4.44%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, the US dollar index was 98.46, etc. Compared with July 18, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.03%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.18%, etc. [4] 3.4 Market News and Analysis - **Economic Data**: The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in July was 61.8, higher than the expected 61.5. The preliminary value of the 1 - year inflation expectation was 4.4%, lower than the expected 5% [4] - **Policy and Geopolitical News**: US President Trump is promoting a minimum tariff increase of 15% - 20% on all EU goods. The LDP in Japan suffered a historic defeat in the Senate election, but Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru said he would continue to govern [4]

Core Viewpoint - Ongoing tariff negotiations between the US and Malaysia face significant disagreements on sensitive issues, impacting Malaysia's economic growth expectations. Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - The US plans to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries, including a 25% tariff on Malaysian products starting August 1 [1] - Malaysia's negotiation team aims for a tariff rate below 25%, ideally around 20%, to align with neighboring countries like Indonesia and Vietnam [1][2] - The outcome of these negotiations is crucial for Malaysia's economic growth, with the government projecting a growth target of 4.5% to 5.5% for the year, contingent on the final tariff levels [1] Group 2: Controversial Issues - The extension of tax exemptions for US-made electric vehicles is a contentious point, with Malaysian officials hesitant to agree due to potential implications for other countries [2] - Malaysia is unwilling to lower foreign ownership limits in sensitive sectors like electricity and finance, reflecting the political sensitivity of these issues [2] - The request to reduce local fisheries subsidies and overfishing is seen as interference in domestic affairs, affecting key voter groups, particularly among the Malay fishermen [3] Group 3: Semiconductor Cooperation - Malaysia has shown willingness to cooperate on high-performance semiconductors, implementing stricter export controls for AI chips to the US [4]

金十数据7月22日讯，日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正周一与美国商务部长卢特尼克举行会谈，距离8月1日 美国加征关税的最后期限仅剩数日。日本内阁府周二发表声明称，双方周一晚间在华盛顿进行了两个多 小时的会谈。声明表示，双方为实现互利协议进行了坦诚深入的讨论，但强调日本仍将坚守国家利益。 这是自四月启动谈判以来，赤泽亮正第八次赴美磋商，目前尚未取得实质性进展。随着日本执政联盟在 周日选举中遭遇历史性挫败，日本首相石破茂正面临新的压力，需在关税生效前争取缓冲空间。若未能 达成协议，日本对美出口商品的普遍关税税率将于8月1日上调至25%。 美日关税谈判进入最后冲刺 日本执政党选举惨败加剧谈判压力 ...

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold futures experienced fluctuations but maintained above the $3400 mark, indicating a recovery in market sentiment amid uncertainties in trade negotiations and a weakening dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On July 21, COMEX gold futures surged by 1.63%, reaching $3410 per ounce, marking a five-week high [1]. - On July 22, gold futures opened at $3410.7 per ounce, peaked at $3416.3, and then fell slightly to $3403.1, a decrease of 0.1% [1][2]. - The average price recorded was $3407.0, with a slight decline of $3.4 [2]. Group 2: Market Influences - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased market risk aversion and a weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields ahead of the August 1 tariff negotiation deadline [3]. - Analysts suggest that four key factors will influence whether gold can surpass $3500: central bank purchasing, geopolitical tensions, inflation data, and dollar performance [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Demand - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicated that 95% of central banks expect to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019, up 17 percentage points from 2024 [3]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Citigroup forecasts that gold prices will stabilize between $3100 and $3500 per ounce in Q3, with a potential fundamental weakness in the market due to declining investment demand thereafter [4].

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.46% at 119.970 yuan, the 10-year main contract down 0.05% at 108.760 yuan, the 5-year main contract down 0.05% at 105.955 yuan, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01% at 102.420 yuan [1] - As of 17:00, the yield on the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" rose by 1.4 basis points to 1.887%, the yield on the 10-year government development bond "25 National Development 10" rose by 1.05 basis points to 1.7525%, and the yield on the 10-year government bond "25 Coupon Government Bond 11" rose by 0.95 basis points to 1.6735% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 170.7 billion yuan at a fixed rate, with a bidding amount of 170.7 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 170.7 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 226.2 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan [2] - The overnight repurchase weighted rate (DR001) fell by nearly 10 basis points to around 1.35%, indicating a gradual return to a balanced but slightly loose liquidity environment post-tax period [2] News Developments - On July 19, the groundbreaking ceremony for the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project was held in Linzhi City, Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan for the construction of five tiered power stations [3] - The project primarily focuses on power transmission and consumption outside Tibet while also addressing local demand [3] - The stock market opened high and continued to trend upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.72%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.87% [3] - A total trading volume of 1.73 trillion yuan was recorded, up from 1.59 trillion yuan the previous day, with 4,000 stocks gaining and the number of stocks hitting the daily limit reaching a two-month high [3] Operational Suggestions - Recent policies against excessive competition and the commencement of large infrastructure projects have boosted the commodity and equity markets, leading to a recovery in risk appetite that may suppress the bond market [4] - Current fundamental data shows a supply-demand divergence, with production continuing to rise, positively impacting quarterly GDP performance, but nominal growth is hindered by low inflation, affecting corporate profits and real economic sentiment [4] - The period of July to August may see a new round of stable real estate policies, government investment expansion, and tariff negotiations, indicating a complex macroeconomic outlook [4] - The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound phase due to the lack of a clear main trend, with the T2509 contract focusing on support around 108.6 [4] - A cautious approach is recommended in the short term, monitoring funding conditions and incremental policy developments, while considering a potential shift towards a looser funding environment [4]

金十数据7月22日讯，据知情人士透露，马来西亚政府正寻求将美国总统特朗普拟加征的关税税率降至 约20%，但拒绝在电动汽车政策及外资持股限制等关键领域作出让步。知情人士称，马来西亚总理安瓦 尔的谈判团队正努力将关税从8月1日起实施的25%降至更低水平，目标是与印尼、越南等区域邻国的税 率看齐。目前马来西亚已在解决美国关注的高性能半导体走私问题上取得进展，但拒绝了其三项核心要 求：延长美国电动汽车税收优惠、放宽电力及金融等敏感行业的外资持股上限、削减对本土渔民的补 贴。 马来西亚力争将美国关税降至20% 拒绝核心领域让步 ...

中方刚调整出口规则，美方就计划对中国石墨加征反倾销税,加拿大也趁势出手，目标瞄准中国进口钢材。那么，在新修订的《禁止出口限制出口技术目 录》中，中方都做出了哪些调整？中美关税谈判关键阶段，加拿大又是如何对华出手的？ 当地时间7月17日，美国商务部以存在不公平补贴为由，宣布对原产自中国的阳极级石墨加征93.5%的初级反倾销税。彭博社报道称，由于新关税将在原有 税率基础上进行叠加，因此，中国输美石墨的实际关税税率，已经达到了160%。 作为生产电动汽车电池的关键材料，石墨被美方列入加税名单并不让人意外。毕竟从拜登政府开始，美国对于中国电动汽车的污蔑和打压就没停过。再加上 美国商务部发布关税新规前，中方刚调整发布了《禁止出口限制出口技术目录》，加强了对电池正极材料制备技术、有色金属冶金技术等方面的出口管控。 在这种情况下，不排除美方出于报复心理，对电动汽车电池的原材料动手。 这一点，从中方调整出口规则后，多家美国媒体的评论中也能得到印证。《华尔街日报》报道称，中方正试图提高外国公司获得中国先进技术的门槛； CNN则宣称，中方此举旨在巩固其在电动汽车电池领域的主导地位，将电池生产的上游工艺牢牢掌握在自己手中。 不过， ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a bullish trend, supported by national empowerment, the enhancement of its international financial center status, and an influx of incremental capital, with expectations for continued strength in the second half of the year [1] - The market is anticipated to remain volatile in the third quarter, but pressure factors are expected to be lower than anticipated, potentially leading to an earlier market rally [1] - The long-term macro factors supporting the Hong Kong stock market's liquidity have not changed, although there may be marginal tightening pressures in the third quarter due to various factors [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market is currently at a relatively low absolute valuation level, with historical valuation percentiles in the upper middle range [2] - The market has shown strong performance in the first half of the year, driven by a resonance between fundamentals and capital flows, with both domestic and foreign investors forming a bullish consensus on Chinese assets [2] - There is a positive sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market, with continuous inflows of southbound capital and no significant outflows observed so far this year [2]