10 月美国股票型 ETF 资金净流入超千亿，当前规模已超 10 万亿美元 证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 海外资管机构月报 美国公募基金市场月度收益 2025 年 10 月，美国股票型基金业绩中位数强于债券基金，弱于国际股票基 金和资产配置基金。具体来看，10 月美国股票型基金、国际股票型基金、 债券型基金、资产配置型基金收益中位数分别为 0.56%、0.89%、0.51%、 1.20%。 美国非货币公募基金资金流向 按管理方式：2025 年 10 月，主动管理型基金整体净流入 190 亿美元，被动 基金整体净流入 1118 亿美元。 按资产类型：2025 年 10 月，美国市场开放式基金中，债券型基金资金净流 入较多，为 275 亿美元，股票型基金资金净流出较多，为 970 亿美元。 2025 年 10 月，美国市场 ETF 中，股票型、债券型 ETF 资金净流入较多， 分别达 1044 亿、490 亿美元。 值得注意的是，在股票型基金中，开放式基金与 ETF 资金流向相反，表现 为资金流出开放式基金并流入 ETF。 头部资管机构资金净流入 美国开放式基金规模 Top10 资管机构大部分均有资金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected appearance of U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra at a Bitcoin-themed bar in Washington is interpreted as a strong signal of government support for the digital asset industry, marking a potential shift in regulatory stance towards cryptocurrencies [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The event has sparked significant reactions within the cryptocurrency community, with industry leaders describing it as a decisive "bullish signal" that investors have been waiting for, indicating a substantial change in regulatory attitude [1][6]. - Despite Bitcoin's price decline from over $125,000 in early October to around $85,500, analysts believe Becerra's presence highlights a long-term commitment to integrating digital assets into the mainstream financial system [3][5]. Group 2: Becerra's Position and Policies - Becerra's visit reinforces his reputation as a proponent of cryptocurrencies, having previously advocated for the U.S. to become a global hub for digital assets and supported various related policy explorations, including strategic Bitcoin reserves [5][7]. - Since his nomination in late 2024, Becerra has been viewed as an ally in the cryptocurrency sector, expressing support for multiple cryptocurrency bills and clarifying that the Treasury is exploring budget-neutral methods to purchase Bitcoin for strategic reserves [7].

Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Kishi Nobuo expressed the desire to build constructive and stable Sino-Japanese relations, reiterating Japan's unchanged stance on the Taiwan issue [2] - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met with former U.S. National Security Advisor Hadley, emphasizing the broad cooperation space and common interests between China and the U.S., with trade being a stabilizing factor in bilateral relations [3] - The China-Cambodia Free Trade Agreement Joint Committee held its second meeting, with China urging Cambodia to consider its long-term interests in trade agreements with other countries [3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce reported that from January to October, actual foreign investment in China amounted to 621.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, while sectors like e-commerce services and medical equipment manufacturing saw significant growth [3] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized urban renewal as a comprehensive strategy for high-quality urban development, focusing on planning, funding, operations, and governance [3] Group 3 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a meeting on the professional integration of central enterprises, with 17 entities signing contracts for projects in new materials, AI, and logistics [4] - The People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of the UAE launched a payment cooperation project, marking the start of a digital currency bridge project [4] Group 4 - The A-share market saw a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 2.45% and the Shenzhen Component Index falling 3.41%, amid a sell-off in lithium mining and semiconductor stocks [5] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 2.38%, with technology and semiconductor sectors experiencing deep corrections [5] - The Hang Seng Index Company announced its quarterly review results, adding new stocks to various indices [5] Group 5 - The Ministry of Finance and the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the addition of two accounting firms to the H-share enterprise audit business list, aiming to enhance regulatory cooperation [6] - CK Hutchison is preparing for a dual listing of its Watsons Group in Hong Kong and the UK, with a fundraising target of up to $2 billion [7] Group 6 - The National Energy Administration reported that in October, total electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with significant growth in residential electricity consumption [9] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs approved a plan to strengthen the comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity, aiming to stabilize the livestock industry [10] Group 7 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority received 37 applications for licenses since the implementation of the Stablecoin Regulation, but no licenses have been issued yet [11] - The Hong Kong Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau is working on the applicability of existing laws to tokenized bonds to promote the bond market [11] Group 8 - Huawei launched and open-sourced its AI container technology, Flex:ai, aimed at improving the utilization of AI computing resources [12] - OpenAI announced a partnership with Foxconn to advance AI infrastructure hardware design and manufacturing in the U.S. [12] Group 9 - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Dow Jones up 1.08% and the S&P 500 up 0.98%, driven by expectations of potential interest rate cuts [16] - The Federal Reserve officials indicated a possibility of further interest rate cuts, with market expectations for a December rate cut exceeding 50% [16] Group 10 - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1103 against the USD, appreciating by 64 basis points, while the offshore RMB also saw gains [21] - The U.S. dollar index fell slightly, with most non-USD currencies appreciating against the dollar [21]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley warns that Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR.US) may be removed from the MSCI index, potentially leading to billions in capital outflows [1] Group 1: MSCI Index Considerations - MSCI is considering excluding companies with Bitcoin or other digital assets as treasury assets from its indices, seeking feedback from the investment community [1] - The proposal suggests that companies with digital asset holdings exceeding 50% of total assets could be removed from the MSCI Global Investable Market Index series [1] - The consultation period for this proposal will last until December 31, with a final decision expected by January 15, 2026 [1] Group 2: Financial Implications for Strategy - Strategy is currently part of the Nasdaq 100 Index, MSCI US Index, and MSCI Global Index [1] - Analysts estimate that approximately $9 billion of Strategy's market capitalization may exist in passive holdings through ETFs and mutual funds linked to major benchmark indices [1] - If MSCI proceeds with the removal, Strategy could face an outflow of $2.8 billion, and if other index providers follow suit, the total outflow could reach $8.8 billion [1] Group 3: Market Reaction and Stock Performance - The removal from major indices is likely to be perceived negatively by market participants, raising concerns about Strategy's future financing costs and capabilities [1] - Since reaching an all-time high in November 2024, Strategy's stock price has plummeted by 67%, with a cumulative decline of 56% over the past six months [1] - As of the report, the stock was down 4.87% before Friday's opening [1]

美国财政部部长贝森特周四意外现身华盛顿一家比特币主题酒吧，这一举动迅速在加密货币社区引发强烈反响，被市场人士广泛解读为联邦政府 对数字资产行业支持立场的明确信号。 在名为Pubkey的酒吧开业活动上，贝森特在未预先宣布的情况下到场。包括Strive首席投资官Ben Werkman和Nakamoto投资者关系副总裁Steven Lubka在内的多位业内高管迅速做出反应，将此事件描述为投资者一直在等待的决定性"看涨信号"，认为这标志着监管层态度的实质性转变。 此次贝森特造访的地点本身具有一定的政治象征意义。位于华盛顿的这家Pubkey是纽约同名场所的姐妹店，作为总统候选人的特朗普在该机构的 一家门店进行了竞选停留，使得该品牌成为连接政治与加密货币文化的一个独特节点。 此次高层背书正值比特币经历显著价格调整之际。尽管比特币价格已从10月初超过12.5万美元的历史高点回落至8.55万美元附近，市场情绪处于低 迷期，但分析人士认为，财政部长的亲自到场超越了短期价格波动的影响，突显了美国将数字资产纳入主流金融体系的长期战略承诺。 加密货币交易员MacroScope在X平台上分析称，在这种市场环境下，此类信号往往起初并不被 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected appearance of U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent at a Bitcoin-themed bar in Washington is interpreted as a clear signal of government support for the digital asset industry, marking a potential shift in regulatory stance [1][3]. Group 1: Event Significance - Bessent's visit to the Pubkey bar, a politically symbolic location, has been described by industry leaders as a decisive "bullish signal" that investors have been waiting for, indicating a substantial change in regulatory attitude [1][4]. - The presence of high-profile figures from the cryptocurrency community at the event underscores the importance of this moment, with many considering it a historical turning point for Bitcoin [4]. Group 2: Policy Consistency and Strategic Plans - Bessent has been recognized as an ally in the cryptocurrency space since his nomination in late 2024, advocating for the U.S. to become a global digital asset hub and supporting various cryptocurrency legislation [3][5]. - His public appearance is seen as a continuation of discussions regarding the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, reinforcing the commitment to integrating digital assets into the mainstream financial system [5]. Group 3: Market Context and Sentiment - The visit comes at a time when Bitcoin's market sentiment is weak, with prices having dropped from a peak of $125,100 in early October to around $85,500 [7]. - Market analysts note that such signals may initially be overlooked in a bearish environment, but their significance is likely to be recognized in hindsight [7].

Group 1 - Hong Kong's Financial Secretary, Paul Chan, announced the collaboration between the Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to study the applicability of existing laws to tokenized bonds, with details to be released in the first half of next year [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's Ensemble project has officially entered the trial phase, focusing on the use of tokenized deposits in tokenized currency market fund transactions, marking a significant milestone in Hong Kong's tokenization process [2] - The Hong Kong government recently issued its third batch of tokenized green bonds, totaling a record high of HKD 10 billion, making it the largest tokenized bond issuance globally [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has issued new circulars allowing licensed virtual asset trading platforms to share global order books with their overseas affiliates, enhancing local investors' access to global market liquidity [1] - The government aims to establish over 20 cross-border data verification platform applications in the financial sector between Hong Kong and Shenzhen by the end of 2027, leveraging both regions' strengths in fintech [2] - Hong Kong is working on a licensing regime for digital asset trading and custody service providers, with a draft bill expected to be submitted to the Legislative Council next year [3]

Group 1: Construction Industry Overview - The construction industry is currently under pressure, with revenue and profit expected to improve in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to increased funding and project commencement [2][5] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the construction sector achieved revenue of 5.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5.51%, and a net profit of 123.9 billion yuan, down 10.06% [6][8] - The overall gross margin for the construction sector in 2025 Q1-3 was 9.91%, with a net margin of 2.61%, reflecting a slight decline compared to the previous year [6][7] Group 2: Central Enterprises Performance - Nine major state-owned construction enterprises accounted for 83.45% of the sector's revenue and 83.99% of net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating their dominant role in the industry [8] - Excluding state-owned enterprises, the sector's revenue decline deepened to -12.37%, while the net profit decline narrowed to -5.48%, highlighting the stabilizing effect of state-owned enterprises on revenue [8][9] - The new contracts signed by state-owned enterprises in 2025 Q1-3 totaled approximately 10.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 1.31% [8] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend, low-valuation stocks in a context of loose liquidity and low interest rates, recommending companies like Jianghe Group and Sichuan Road & Bridge [9] - It also emphasizes the importance of companies that are clearly transitioning towards new energy, smart manufacturing, and digital construction, indicating a growth potential in these areas [9] Group 4: OSL Group Overview - OSL Group is a licensed digital asset trading and payment platform, recognized as the first major virtual asset trading platform in Hong Kong [12][13] - The company has developed a digital asset ecosystem comprising brokerage, payment, asset management, exchange, and institutional services, with significant revenue contributions from brokerage and payment services [13][14] - OSL is transitioning from a single trading platform to a comprehensive digital asset financial infrastructure provider, with advantages in payment services and a robust global compliance network [14][15] Group 5: Market Opportunities for OSL - The digital asset industry is expected to benefit from a shift in monetary policy, clearer global regulatory frameworks, and the entry of institutional funds, presenting growth opportunities for OSL [13][14] - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, with projected non-IFRS revenues of 467 million, 764 million, and 1.22 billion HKD for 2025-2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 89% [15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Buy" for OSL Group, marking its first coverage [5][10]. Core Insights - OSL Group is a licensed digital asset trading and payment platform, uniquely positioned as Hong Kong's only publicly listed virtual asset exchange focused on digital asset trading and payment services. The company has obtained multiple important licenses across over 10 jurisdictions, including Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, the EU (Italy), and Bermuda [5][6]. - The company is transitioning from a single trading platform to a comprehensive digital asset financial infrastructure provider, leveraging four key advantages: the rise of payment services, significant trading fee advantages, a global compliance network, and a triad of compliance, security, and liquidity [7][68]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of November 19, 2025, OSL Group's closing price is HKD 15.03, with a market capitalization of HKD 11,942.77 million. The stock has seen a one-year high of HKD 20.30 and a low of HKD 6.84 [3]. Business Overview - OSL Group has developed a digital asset ecosystem comprising brokerage, payment, asset management, exchange, and institutional services. The brokerage business contributes approximately half of the revenue, while the payment business, launched only two months prior, accounted for 29% of the revenue in the first half of 2025 [6][8]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts non-IFRS revenues for OSL Group to be HKD 4.67 billion, HKD 7.64 billion, and HKD 12.20 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 119%, 64%, and 60% [8][10]. Strategic Initiatives - OSL is expanding its payment services, with OSL Pay generating significant revenue shortly after its launch. The company is also pursuing acquisitions to enhance its service offerings and expand its operational capabilities [39][69]. Competitive Positioning - OSL Group's fee structure is competitive, with trading fees ranging from 0% to 0.05%, and no deposit fees, positioning it favorably against other major platforms [73]. Regulatory Environment - The report highlights a favorable regulatory landscape for digital assets, with significant developments in compliance frameworks across various jurisdictions, enhancing the stability and credibility of the digital asset market [61][62]. Growth Drivers - The anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and the establishment of clear regulatory frameworks are expected to drive growth in the digital asset sector, benefiting OSL Group as it captures institutional interest and expands its market presence [58][66].

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin prices dropping to a seven-month low, leading to a total market cap loss exceeding $1 trillion [1] - Bitcoin reached a low of $88,522 during trading, affecting various investors, including retail buyers and digital asset reserve companies [1] - The total cryptocurrency market cap peaked at approximately $4.3 trillion on October 6, currently hovering around $3.2 trillion, indicating that these changes primarily reflect paper losses rather than actual capital outflows [1] Group 2 - A forced liquidation event on October 10 revealed market vulnerabilities, with over $19 billion in leveraged cryptocurrency positions being sold off, causing a chain reaction of margin calls and capital outflows from exchanges [3] - The previous bullish momentum for Bitcoin, which peaked above $126,000 earlier this year, was supported by expectations of multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased institutional adoption, both of which have weakened [3] - Ethereum has also fallen below $3,000, having previously approached $5,000 in August, but has since retraced all gains, indicating a broader market correction [3]