巴西财政部长费尔南多·阿达本周公开批评称，15%的基准利率"甚至不应处于这一水平"，当前经济存在 降息空间。他表示，经济团队正在寻求每年3%以上的 GDP增长率，高利率不仅抑制经济扩张，也威胁 政府在2026年大选年的民众就业和收入目标。 央行行长加布里埃尔·加利波洛（Gabriel Galípolo）此前就通胀目标连续超标向财政部长提交公开信，解 释其原因包括经济过热、汇率波动、电力成本上升及极端气候冲击。加利波洛认为，维持高利率对控制 通胀、保护劳动者购买力至关重要。他强调，"历史经验表明，高通胀才是损害劳动者收入的最大威 胁。在就业和工资保持强劲的情况下，收紧政策仍是必要措施。" 新华财经圣保罗9月26日电 巴西中央银行25日发布的三季度货币政策报告（Monetary Policy Report）将 巴西2025年国内生产总值（GDP）增速预期由2.1%下调至2%。同时，巴西央行首次公布的2026年经济 增速预期仅为1.5%。 报告指出，受持续的高利率政策、全球经济放缓和2025年农业高增长难以延续等因素影响，巴西经济增 长在2026年可能明显减弱。今年下半年，尽管农业和采掘业表现良好，但美国加征关税的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Outlook**: Crude oil, methanol, gold, silver, copper, iron ore, corn, lithium carbonate [6] - **Bearish Outlook**: Zinc, cotton, apple, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, stock index (IH, IF, IC, IM) [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The scale of China's public - offering funds has exceeded 36 trillion yuan, with bond funds slightly decreasing due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. The US GDP growth rate in Q2 was revised up, and the PCE price index indicated persistent inflation. The market's expectation of a rate cut in October has cooled [1]. - For the stock index, September was more volatile, in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][12]. - The SC crude oil rose slightly at night. Russia will ban diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban. The global decline rate of oil and gas field production has accelerated. Future OPEC production increase should be monitored [3][14]. - The glass futures continued to rebound, and the supply - demand situation was slowly improving. The inventory of glass and soda ash was being digested. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [4][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main News of the Day 3.1.1 International News - The US GDP in Q2 was revised up to an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 3.8%, and the core PCE price index was revised up to 2.6% [7]. 3.1.2 Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce included three US entities in the export control list and three Taiwan - related US entities in the unreliable entity list [8]. 3.1.3 Industry News - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed measures to control the expansion of copper smelting capacity, and relevant departments are studying regulatory measures [9]. 3.2 Daily Returns of External Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, London silver, ICE No. 11 sugar, CBOT soybeans, CBOT wheat, CBOT corn, and CBOT soybean oil all rose, while LME copper and CBOT soybean meal fell [11]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial Products - **Stock Index**: After the decline of US indices, the previous trading day's stock index rebounded. The financing balance increased. In the long - term, the strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has started [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after hitting the bottom. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity. The domestic economic situation was still in adjustment. With the Fed's rate cut, the central bank's policy space has increased, but policy adjustment needs central government deployment. It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and neutral on short - term bonds [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose slightly at night. Russia restricted fuel exports, and the global decline rate of oil and gas field production accelerated. Future OPEC production increase should be monitored [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and the coastal inventory decreased. It is short - term bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell slightly. Supply may increase, the bonded area inventory decreased, and tire production increased. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins rebounded slightly. Prices follow the cost, and future demand and supply policies should be monitored. It may fluctuate within a low - level range [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continued to rebound, and the supply - demand situation was slowly improving. The inventory of glass and soda ash decreased. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [4][18]. 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend paused. The Fed's rate - cut stance was cautious, but the rate - cut prospect was clear. The long - term driver for gold was still there, but there was short - term adjustment [20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell at night. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, which will support copper prices in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose slightly at night. The smelting output may increase, and the short - term supply may be in surplus. It may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly production increased. Inventory was being digested rapidly. It may fluctuate in the short - term, and the actual situation of projects in Jiangxi should be monitored [23]. 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices were weak. The fundamentals of finished steel products improved, and the prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills resumed production, and iron ore demand was supported. Global iron ore shipments decreased, and port inventory decreased rapidly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [26]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remained stable, and supply pressure increased. The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the market is expected to be bullish, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [27]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Soybean meal fell at night, and rapeseed meal was strong. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes, but the exemption period ended early. Domestic soybean meal may fluctuate at a low level [28]. - **Edible Oils**: Edible oils were strong at night. The impact of floods in Malaysia on palm oil production was limited. After digesting the negative news of Argentina's tax cancellation, oil prices rebounded [29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be weak, while domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory but pressured by imports. Zhengzhou sugar may fluctuate after a rebound [30]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton prices rose slightly. International supply pressure still exists, and domestic new - cotton purchase is in focus. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [31]. 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC rebounded. Shipping companies signaled post - holiday price support, but success depends on cargo volume and capacity control. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [32].

Group 1 - The total scale of public funds in China has surpassed 36 trillion yuan, reaching 36.25 trillion yuan by the end of August, with a monthly increase of 1.18 trillion yuan [1] - The scale of bond funds has slightly decreased by 28.5 billion yuan due to the stock-bond seesaw effect [1] - The U.S. GDP growth for the second quarter has been revised up to 3.8%, the highest in nearly two years, indicating stronger inflationary pressures with a PCE price index of 2.6% [1][7] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market indices have experienced three consecutive declines, with the 2-year Treasury yield rising and prices for gold and crude oil increasing [1] - The financing balance in the Chinese market increased by 14.08 billion yuan to 24,141.23 billion yuan, indicating a more volatile market in September compared to July and August [2][11] - The market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase after a prolonged period of rising, with a divergence in bullish and bearish forces [2][11] Group 3 - The international oil market is affected by Russia's partial ban on diesel exports and extended ban on gasoline exports, leading to fuel shortages in certain regions [3][14] - The U.S. initial jobless claims have decreased to 218,000, the lowest since July, indicating a tightening labor market [3][14] - The International Energy Agency reports a significant acceleration in the decline of global oil and gas field production, primarily due to increased reliance on shale oil and deep-sea resources [3][14] Group 4 - The glass futures market continues to rebound, with production enterprise inventories decreasing by 1.42 million heavy boxes to 53.29 million heavy boxes [4][18] - The soda ash futures market has also seen a slight rebound, with inventories down by 54,000 tons to 1.444 million tons [4][18] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a plan to stabilize growth in ten key industries, leading to positive expectations for future supply changes in the glass industry [4][18]

Group 1 - The semiconductor stocks in the US experienced a significant sell-off, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping over 2% and major companies like Broadcom, TSMC ADR, and Micron Technology also falling more than 2% [2][3] - Other major tech stocks also declined, with Oracle dropping over 6% and Tesla down over 3%, indicating a broader weakness in the tech sector [3] - The market sentiment was negatively impacted by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's warning about high valuation risks and the increasing likelihood of a US government shutdown, with a 76% probability of a government shutdown by 2025 according to Polymarket [4][3] Group 2 - Analysts are reassessing the collaboration between Oracle, NVIDIA, and OpenAI, which forms a business loop where OpenAI purchases cloud services from Oracle, Oracle buys GPUs from NVIDIA, and NVIDIA continues to invest in OpenAI [4] - The potential government shutdown is a growing concern, with a 63% probability of a shutdown by October 1, as negotiations between Republicans and Democrats remain stalled [4][5] - Recent macroeconomic data showed a stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 3.8% for Q2, which may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates further, as inflation pressures appear more persistent than previously assessed [7][8]

当地时间9月25日，美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌0.38%，纳指跌0.5%，标普500指数跌0.5%。 个股上，甲骨文跌超5%；特斯拉跌超4%，市值一夜蒸发645亿美元（约合人民币4602亿元）；Meta跌超1%；苹果涨超1%。 英特尔大涨近9%。消息面上，英特尔公司已就获得苹果公司的投资事宜与其接触。知情人士称，此举是为加强这家目前部分由美国政府持股的芯片企业的 业务基础。这些知情人士表示，苹果与英特尔还讨论了如何进一步深化合作。相关磋商仍处于早期阶段，未必会达成协议。如果协议达成，这笔交易将延 续近期对英特尔的外部注资浪潮：上周，英伟达宣布出资50亿美元，并计划与英特尔在个人电脑与数据中心芯片上展开合作。上个月，日本科技巨头软银 集团也宣布向英特尔投资20亿美元。 知情人士还称，英特尔已与其他多家公司接触潜在的投资与合作。 美国二季度核心个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数年化季环比终值为2.6%，高于预期的2.5%，前值为2.5%。 有分析指出，这份强劲的报告也显示出通胀压力比之前评估的更为顽固。 华尔街机构指出，最新发布的数据可能会限制美联储未来的降息空间。尽管美联储上周降息了25个基点，并预计今年还将有两 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Semiconductor stocks in the US experienced a significant sell-off, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping over 2% and major companies like Broadcom, TSMC ADR, and Micron Technology falling more than 2% [1][2] - Other tech stocks also declined, with Oracle plunging over 6% and Tesla dropping more than 3% [2] - The overall market sentiment was negatively impacted by concerns over high valuations as highlighted by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1][2] Group 2: Government Shutdown Risk - The risk of a US government shutdown is increasing, with a 63% probability of a shutdown occurring by October 1, and a 76% chance of a shutdown by 2025 according to Polymarket [3] - The ongoing political standoff between Republicans and Democrats, particularly regarding temporary spending plans, is contributing to this uncertainty [3] Group 3: Economic Data Impact - Recent macroeconomic data revealed a stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth rate of 3.8%, surpassing the anticipated 3.3% [4][5] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index also exceeded expectations, recorded at 2.6% compared to the forecast of 2.5% [4][5] - This robust economic performance raises concerns about persistent inflation, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates in the near future [5] Group 4: Employment Market Insights - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 14,000 to 218,000, marking the lowest level since July, indicating a relatively healthy labor market [6] - Despite signs of a cooling labor market, the limited number of layoffs suggests that employment risks are not escalating significantly [6]

Core Viewpoint - The US stock market, particularly semiconductor stocks, experienced a significant sell-off, driven by concerns over high valuations and the increasing risk of a government shutdown [2][3][4]. Group 1: Semiconductor Stocks Performance - Semiconductor stocks collectively dropped, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling over 2%, and major companies like Broadcom, TSMC ADR, and Micron Technology also declining more than 2% [2][3]. - Other large tech stocks also faced declines, with Oracle dropping over 6% and Tesla down over 3% [3]. Group 2: Economic and Political Risks - The risk of a US government shutdown is rising, with a 63% probability of a shutdown by October 1, and a 76% chance of a shutdown by 2025, as political negotiations stall [4]. - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned about high valuations in the stock market, contributing to a cautious sentiment among investors [3][6]. Group 3: Economic Data and Inflation Concerns - Recent macroeconomic data showed a stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth of 3.8%, with personal consumption expenditures contributing significantly to this growth [5]. - The core PCE price index for Q2 was revised up to 2.6%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that may limit the Fed's ability to lower interest rates [5][6]. Group 4: Labor Market Insights - Initial jobless claims decreased to 218,000, the lowest since July, suggesting a healthy labor market despite signs of cooling [7].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is experiencing weakness due to ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts, with the Federal Reserve's dovish stance contributing to a lack of bullish momentum [1][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials, including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, express concerns about persistent inflation pressures and the challenges of balancing inflation control with employment support [3]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell describes the current economic situation as "challenging," emphasizing the risks of either too rapid or too slow policy adjustments [3]. - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is expected to show some easing of inflation pressures [3]. Group 2: Dollar's Safe-Haven Status - Canadian central bank Governor Tiff Macklem highlights concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, which is diminishing the dollar's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4]. - Historical trends indicate that during periods of market turmoil, investors typically seek refuge in dollar assets, but this pattern is changing, with the dollar's safe-haven value potentially weakening [4]. - Macklem notes that the dollar depreciated by approximately 10% during significant shifts in US trade policy, while gold prices surged by 40% during the same period [4]. Group 3: Political Influences - The Trump administration has criticized the Federal Reserve for its slow pace of interest rate cuts, leading to tensions regarding the independence of the central bank [5]. - Legal challenges regarding the potential removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook are ongoing, reflecting the political pressures faced by the Federal Reserve [5].

Group 1 - OECD raised global economic growth forecast to 3.2% for this year, up from 2.9% in June [4] - US economic growth forecast increased from 1.6% to 1.8% for 2025, with a significant decline expected in 2024 at 2.8% [4] - OECD predicts US inflation for 2025 to be 2.7%, down from a previous estimate of 3.2% [5] Group 2 - US Treasury yields mostly declined, with 2-year yield down 0.7 basis points to 3.594% and 10-year yield down 1.2 basis points to 4.133% [1] - Global asset management firm East Spring noted that the Fed's dovish shift in September is likely to positively impact the rate market in the coming months [3] - Investors are focused on upcoming speeches from several Fed officials, including Chair Powell [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold investment rating: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver investment rating: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued to be strong. Last week, the Fed implemented a risk - management rate cut, and Powell's cautious stance showed that inflation pressure still exists, and the geopolitical game situation is difficult to resolve. Attention should also be paid to the development of issues such as the US government shutdown and the Fed's independence. The demand for gold ETFs has increased rapidly. The medium - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but short - term caution is required. Tonight, attention should be paid to the preliminary value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI in September and Powell's speech on the economic outlook [1] Summary by Related Information Fed Officials' Views - Fed's Bostic believes there is not much reason for further rate cuts and expects only one rate cut this year; Musalem thinks the room for further rate cuts is limited and will not support further rate cuts if inflation risks increase; Harker believes that policy restrictions should be lifted very cautiously, and his estimate of the neutral interest rate is relatively high; Milan believes that the appropriate interest rate is in the middle area of 2% and does not support adjusting the 2% inflation target [2] Fed Interest Rate Probability Forecast - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 10.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 89.8%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in December is 1.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 23.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 75.3% [2] Gold ETF Position - The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased by 6.01 tons compared with the previous day, and the current holdings are 1000.57 tons, reaching the highest level since August 2022 [2]