Core Viewpoint - The combination of policy, fundamentals, and capital flow is expected to create a positive synergy that will drive the sector to continue its upward trend [1][2]. Policy Perspective - The "anti-involution" policy and the "14th Five-Year Plan" are providing ongoing support for the industry. The "anti-involution" policy aims to combat vicious price wars and promote the exit of backward production capacity, which will systematically improve the competitive environment and profit expectations [1]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" sets a high-quality development tone for the industry over the next five years, reinforcing the core position of new energy as a strategic emerging industry, with supportive policies expected to continue to emerge [1]. Fundamental Perspective - The improvement in supply-demand dynamics and the expectation of quarterly performance recovery are key factors determining the sustainability of the sector's market performance. The photovoltaic and lithium battery industries are seeing gradual improvements in supply-demand structures, with the photovoltaic industry expected to curb price wars and corporate profits projected to rebound by 2025 [1]. - The energy storage market is anticipated to maintain rapid growth, benefiting from sustained high demand in downstream sectors, leading to a quarterly performance recovery for related companies in the new energy supply chain starting from the second half of this year [1]. Capital Flow Perspective - Currently, institutional holdings in the new energy sector are relatively low, indicating potential for incremental capital inflow. The capital flow acts as an amplifier for market performance, and with the improvement in fundamentals and favorable policies, institutional interest is expected to rise [2]. - Passive capital has already begun to flow significantly into the sector, and as performance gradually materializes, more actively managed funds are likely to increase their allocations. New energy, as a long-term investment track with high certainty, is naturally attractive to long-term funds such as pension and insurance funds, suggesting a potential influx of capital into the sector [2]. - For ordinary investors, index-based investments are recommended as a more stable option, with various ETFs available to share in the industry's growth dividends [2].

Core Insights - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session approved the "15th Five-Year Plan" which outlines China's economic and social development strategy for the next five years, emphasizing high-level opening-up, trade innovation, modern industrial systems, and green transformation [1][2] Group 1: Foreign Business Engagement - Over 160 foreign business representatives actively participated in discussions regarding the "15th Five-Year Plan," indicating strong interest in collaboration opportunities with China [1] - The national negative list for foreign investment has been reduced to 29 items, with the manufacturing sector achieving a zero list, signaling a focus on expanding market access in the service sector [2] - The plan emphasizes balanced development of imports and exports, alongside a significant push for service trade, catering to the growing demand for high-quality imported goods and services in China [2] Group 2: Innovation and Industry Development - The plan encourages the optimization of traditional industries and the cultivation of emerging and future industries, presenting extensive opportunities for foreign enterprises to collaborate with Chinese companies [3] - Innovation is highlighted as a key driver for high-quality development, opening new avenues for multinational companies to invest in China [2][3] - The focus on green development aims to establish a sustainable production and lifestyle model, with China positioning itself as a contributor to global green transformation [3] Group 3: Global Cooperation and Stability - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is viewed as a global cooperation invitation, particularly in areas like innovation, green transformation, and resilient supply chains, which are relevant for small and medium enterprises [3] - The plan is recognized as a significant blueprint for China's development, reinforcing China's role as a stabilizing force in a turbulent global environment [5]

11月17日，学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神省委宣讲团报告会在安康举行。省委宣讲团成员、省 政府办公厅副主任张玉民作宣讲报告。 张玉民从深入学习领会党的二十届四中全会的重要意义，"十五五"时期在基本实现社会主义现代化 进程中的重要地位，"十五五"时期经济社会发展的指导方针、主要目标、战略任务和重大举措，坚持和 加强党的全面领导等方面，对全会精神进行系统阐述和深入解读，并结合安康实际对如何学习宣传贯彻 全会精神作了精准指导。 苏虎超从深入学习领会党的二十届四中全会的重要意义、准确把握"十五五"时期在基本实现社会主 义现代化进程中的重要地位、深刻领会"十五五"时期经济社会发展的指导方针和主要目标、全面理 解"十五五"时期经济社会发展的战略任务和重大举措、坚持和加强党的全面领导、认真学习党的二十届 四中全会关于金融工作的部署要求、全力以赴抓好全会精神贯彻落实等方面，结合全省金融工作发展实 际，对全会精神进行了系统深入解读。 与会人员表示，宣讲报告脉络清晰、内涵丰富，对深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神具有重要 指导意义。省委金融办、省委金融工委机关党委干部马宁说："作为年轻干部，我要将学习贯彻全会精 神与提升专业能 ...

南非驻港总领事莫宏飞会后表示，中国"十五五"时期聚焦可持续发展、技术创新、绿色能源与社会公 平，这些不仅惠及中国自身发展，更能对全球产生积极影响。此外，中国对创新与数字经济的重视，既 能带动全球技术进步，也能创造更多国际合作契机。 香港新西兰商会主席卫德云认为，中国"十五五"规划建议为持续发展、创新突破与民生改善指明了路 径。香港凭借自身独特优势，完全有能力深度参与规划实施、助力目标落地，尤其可发挥在金融服务、 航空海运、高校科研等领域的专长。他向记者表示，香港、澳门在参与粤港澳大湾区建设的同时，可借 助大湾区进一步辐射更广阔的内地。 据新华社香港电（记者王昕怡）外交部驻港特派员公署近日举办中国共产党二十届四中全会精神专题宣 介会。出席活动的外国驻港领团及商会人士在会后表示，"十五五"规划建议中对香港发展的角色与定位 科学精准、具有前瞻性，尤其是关于香港巩固和提升三大中心地位的战略指引，让外国驻港人士深切感 受到发展机遇、看好香港的发展。 外交部驻港公署特派员崔建春在会上表示，中国经济将为世界提供更多发展机遇、优良营商环境、广阔 创新舞台和绿色发展条件。香港和澳门既有国家的坚实支持，又与世界其他地区保持紧密联 ...

Group 1 - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session approved the "15th Five-Year Plan" for China's economic and social development, outlining strategic directions for the next five years [1][3] - Key themes such as "high-level opening up," "trade innovation," "modern industrial system," and "green transformation" signal new opportunities for foreign businesses in China [1][3] - The national negative list for foreign investment has been reduced to 29 items, with a focus on expanding market access in the service sector, particularly in productive services [3][4] Group 2 - The emphasis on trade innovation includes promoting balanced import and export development and significantly enhancing service trade, catering to the growing demand for high-quality imported goods and services in China [3][4] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is set to become more diverse and sustainable, with a focus on both major landmark projects and smaller, community-focused initiatives [3][4] - The concept of innovation is highlighted as a key driver for high-quality development, providing new investment opportunities for multinational companies in China [4][5] Group 3 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is viewed as a global cooperation invitation, particularly in areas like innovation, green transformation, and resilient supply chains, which are relevant for small and medium-sized enterprises [5] - The effectiveness of China's long-term planning approach is recognized, with the Communist Party playing a crucial role in guiding economic and social development [5][6] - China's role as a stabilizing force in a turbulent world is emphasized, reinforcing confidence in its position as a global development engine [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations primarily due to emotional factors rather than a weakening of the fundamentals, supported by healthy Q3 earnings reports [3][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a volatile trend around the 4000-point mark, with major indices experiencing declines on consecutive trading days [5]. - On November 18, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3939.81 points, down 0.81%, with total trading volume reaching 1.93 trillion yuan, an increase of 153 billion yuan from the previous day [5]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Interest - Despite market fluctuations, foreign interest in A-share companies remains strong, with over 100 companies receiving foreign institutional research this month [4][5]. - AI-related companies are particularly favored by foreign investors, with Optoelectronics (688686.SH) receiving 92 institutional visits, over half of which were from foreign entities [6][8]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - UBS and Goldman Sachs have released optimistic investment outlooks for 2026, highlighting opportunities in sectors such as overseas expansion and AI [3][13]. - UBS anticipates that the Chinese stock market will benefit from several favorable factors, including the development of innovative sectors, supportive policies for private enterprises, and ample liquidity under a loose monetary policy [13]. Group 4: Sector Preferences - Foreign investors are increasingly favoring industry leaders and "Chinese state-owned enterprises," with significant holdings in companies like Kweichow Moutai and China Ping An [9]. - The healthcare, insurance, energy, materials, and internet sectors have seen the most significant increases in foreign investment, while automotive and technology sectors have experienced reductions [9]. Group 5: Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to transition from a valuation-driven "hope" rally to a "growth" rally driven by earnings growth, as the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions diminishes [12]. - UBS forecasts that 2026 will be another prosperous year for the Chinese stock market, driven by innovation, supportive policies, and potential inflows from domestic and international institutional investors [13].

Core Viewpoint - The development of distinctive county economies is crucial for China's economic growth, social stability, and rural revitalization, as highlighted in the proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan [1][2]. Group 1: Importance of County Economies - County economies are fundamental units of China's economy, accounting for approximately 90% of the national land area and about half of the total population [1]. - The strategic significance of county economies lies in their role in promoting urban-rural integration, regional coordinated development, and ensuring national food and ecological security [1]. Group 2: Trends and Future Prospects - There is a growing trend of population and industry concentration in county towns, with a more than 30% increase in the permanent population of county and county-level city urban areas from 2010 to 2020 [1]. - The shift towards local employment and near-term migration among migrant workers indicates a promising future for county economies [1]. Group 3: Recommendations for Development - Counties should transition from being mere extensions of cities to vibrant units that can independently create economic value, emphasizing unique development paths based on local resources and market trends [2]. - A systematic approach is necessary for county economic development, focusing on long-term and sustainable growth through the enhancement of industrial chains and the cultivation of distinctive industrial clusters [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growth potential of various ETFs in response to government policies and market trends, particularly in the financial technology, military, and robotics sectors, highlighting the expected improvements in their fundamentals and investment opportunities [3][5][8]. Financial Technology ETF (159851.SZ) - The "14th Five-Year Plan" stresses the importance of building a strong financial nation and advancing technology in finance, leading to a clear demand for digital transformation in financial institutions [3]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, 42 listed securities firms achieved a total revenue of 419.56 billion yuan and a net profit of 169.05 billion yuan, with a net profit growth exceeding 60% [3]. Military Industry ETF (512710.SH) - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for high-quality advancement in national defense and military modernization, with a defense budget of 1.81 trillion yuan for 2025, marking a 7.2% increase and a historical high [5]. - The defense budget as a percentage of GDP remains below 1.3%, significantly lower than the U.S. and Russia, indicating potential for future increases in military spending [5]. - This ETF tracks the China Securities Military Industry Leaders Index, focusing on leading companies in aerospace, missiles, and drones, which are expected to benefit from a new round of military procurement cycles [6]. Robotics ETF (159530.SZ) - The 2025 government work report emphasizes the development of intelligent robots and new-generation smart manufacturing equipment, supported by policies promoting the artificial intelligence industry [8]. - As of July 2025, investment events in the field of embodied intelligence and robotics exceeded 200, with total financing surpassing 24 billion yuan, indicating a significant increase compared to the previous year [8].

Economic Growth and Development Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for a reasonable economic growth rate to achieve a per capita GDP at the level of middle-income countries by 2035, requiring an average annual growth rate of approximately 4.8% during this period [6][10] - The plan emphasizes the importance of improving total factor productivity, increasing the resident consumption rate, and ensuring synchronized growth of resident income and economic growth [6][10] Consumption and Income Distribution - The focus on increasing the resident consumption rate is crucial due to the anticipated challenges from negative population growth and aging demographics, which will impact demand [7][10] - The Gini coefficient of 0.465 indicates a need for improved income distribution, with efforts to ensure that low-income groups see faster income growth compared to high-income groups [7][10][12] Middle-Income Group Expansion - Expanding the middle-income group is essential for achieving higher levels of common prosperity and modernization, necessitating coordinated improvements in initial, secondary, and tertiary income distribution [10][12] - The labor market must address structural unemployment, particularly among the elderly and youth, through targeted training and support [10][11] Role of Artificial Intelligence - Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to exacerbate structural employment issues but can also enhance labor productivity, providing solutions to these challenges [15][16] - A systematic governance framework is needed to align AI development with employment priorities, ensuring that AI not only replaces jobs but also enhances worker capabilities [15][16] Urban-Rural Integration and Household Registration Reform - The reform of the household registration system is critical for urbanization, with the potential to convert over 200 million rural residents into urban citizens, thereby stabilizing labor supply and enhancing economic growth [18][19] - The focus should be on improving public services in smaller cities and rural areas to attract and retain residents [19] Agricultural Modernization - China's agricultural labor force still has significant potential for transfer to higher productivity sectors, with current agricultural labor accounting for 22% of the workforce [22][23] - Modern agriculture is characterized by high labor productivity, large operational scales, and the application of advanced technologies, including AI, to enhance efficiency and output [23][24]

报告类型 股指日评 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 11 月 17 日，万得全 A 缩量下跌，开盘震荡回落，尾盘有所修复，收跌 0.15%； 沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500 收盘分别下跌 0.65%、0.87%、0.00%，中证 1000 收 盘上涨 0.27%，中小盘股表现更优。期货方面，期货表现强于现货，IF、IH 主力 合约分别收跌 0.41%、0.70%，IC、IM 主力合约分别收涨 0.08%、0.30%（按收盘 价计算）。 | 表1:股指期 ...