半导体行业 2025 年 8 月 8 日 刘梦麟 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn 周 报 陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 超配（维持） 半导体行业双周报（2025/07/25-2025/08/07） 行 业 把握模拟芯片涨价机遇与半导体中报行情 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 半导体行业指数近两周涨跌幅：截至2025年8月7日，半导体行业指数近两 周（2025/07/25-2025/08/07）累计上涨4.24%，跑赢沪深300指数5.06个百 分点；2025年以来申万半导体行业指数累计上涨9.94%，跑赢沪深300指数 5.37个百分点。 SAC 执业证书编号： 半导体行业（申万）指数走势 行业新闻与公司动态：（1）火力全开，德州仪器6万 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the current market rally is driven by technology, with a clear "dual-driven" characteristic emerging, supported by multiple signals from trading behavior, capital flow, and institutional support [2][13][14] - The market is characterized by a "bottom-up" approach in an "incremental market" environment, leading to a structural market rally influenced by specific industry catalysts and micro signals [2][13][14] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is expected to continue to attract significant capital, with a notable increase in institutional holdings in TMT-related industries, reflecting a strong preference for technology investments [19][21] Group 2 - In the "incremental market" environment, the TMT sector is less likely to experience a "zero-sum" game, with strong performance expected from segments supported by solid fundamentals [4][47] - The semiconductor industry is currently in an early to mid-stage of a growth acceleration phase, driven by AI demand, with high-end chips like GPUs and HBM experiencing sustained growth [4][52][53] - The report highlights the importance of the semiconductor cycle, indicating that the current phase may lead to significant investment opportunities across various technology sectors [52][53] Group 3 - The investment logic under the technology growth resonance includes a focus on the Nvidia supply chain, particularly in the communication sector, and the potential for recovery in previously undervalued segments [5][62] - The report emphasizes the ongoing shift towards domestic chip manufacturing and the expected growth in AI applications, which are anticipated to drive performance in the semiconductor and related sectors [63][69] - The media sector is entering a new cycle of recovery, with the gaming sub-sector showing potential for high returns due to AI-driven content innovation and improved market conditions [72][78] Group 4 - The military industry is highlighted as having increased long-term investment value due to global military power restructuring, with a focus on areas such as drones and missile technology [79][80] - The report suggests that the military sector's performance is closely aligned with growth style investments, indicating a strong potential for capital appreciation in this area [84]

Core Viewpoint - SMIC's Q2 2025 performance is driven by "technology + localization," with a revenue of $4.456 billion, a 22% year-on-year increase, outperforming industry growth [4]. Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached $2.209 billion, a 1.7% decrease quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 20.4%, down 2.1 percentage points [6]. - For the first half of 2025, total revenue was $4.456 billion, a 22% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 21.4%, up 7.6 percentage points [6]. - Capital expenditure for the first half was $3.301 billion, with a cash flow from operations of $1.07 billion and an investment cash flow of -$1.56 billion [6]. - Q3 guidance indicates a revenue increase of 5%-7% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin forecast of 18%-20% [6]. Business Highlights and Strategic Direction - Continued breakthroughs in advanced processes of 28nm and below, with significant revenue growth in analog chips and CIS, the latter increasing by 20% quarter-on-quarter [8]. - 8-inch capacity utilization reached 92.5%, up 2.9 percentage points, with a monthly capacity of 991,000 equivalent wafers [8]. - Domestic clients are accelerating the replacement of overseas shares, particularly in network equipment, with storage controller demand rising alongside domestic storage manufacturers' expansion [8]. - Revenue from automotive electronics accounts for 5%-6%, with a target to increase this to 10%, and a verification cycle of approximately 30 months [8]. - The impact of U.S. tariff policies is expected to affect revenue by only 1.3%, mitigated by customer inventory buffers and localized supply chains [8]. Management Statements - CEO Zhao Haijun indicated that short-term growth in Q3 will be driven by smart home and industrial IoT sectors, while long-term automotive electronics capacity is expected to double by 2026 [8]. - CFO Wu Junfeng stated that product mix optimization could offset 2 percentage points of depreciation pressure on gross margin [8]. Investor Q&A Summary - The growth drivers for analog chips and CIS are primarily from market share gains and accelerated domestic substitution, alongside ongoing capacity shortages [9]. - October orders exceed capacity, with uncertainty in November and December, but the company expects minimal impact [9]. - North American revenue accounts for 12.9%, with proposed 100% tariffs expected to impact total revenue by approximately 1.3% [9]. - Q3 gross margin guidance is achievable by maintaining high capacity utilization (92%-93%) to dilute unit depreciation [9]. - The company has initiated production line construction focused on power management and third-generation semiconductors, with capacity currently tight [10].

华西证券认为，AI在海外算力链持续业绩高增与指引抬高的背景下保持高位，中短期存在筹码切换的 波动压力，但长期看，在推理算力及模型迭代升级驱动下，算力全产业链仍处于行业早期成长阶段，建 议持续关注。 相关ETF：公开信息显示，科创半导体ETF（588170）跟踪上证科创板半导体材料设备主题指数，囊括 科创板中半导体设备（59%）和半导体材料（25%）细分领域的硬科技公司。半导体设备和材料行业是 重要的国产替代领域，具备国产化率较低、国产替代天花板较高属性，受益于人工智能革命下的半导体 需求扩张、科技重组并购浪潮、光刻机技术进展。 截至2025年8月8日 13点43分，上证科创板半导体材料设备主题指数下跌0.96%。成分股方面涨跌互现， 新益昌领涨6.63%，中船特气上涨5.62%，华海诚科上涨1.69%；神工股份领跌4.33%，中芯国际下跌 4.02%，中科飞测下跌3.44%。科创半导体ETF（588170）下跌1.03%，最新报价1.06元。拉长时间看， 截至2025年8月7日，科创半导体ETF（588170）近1周累计上涨0.85%。流动性方面，科创半导体ETF （588170）盘中换手8.7%，成交368 ...

8月8日，A股市场震荡回调，科创芯片50ETF（588750）震荡走弱，截至13:37，跌2.17%，成交额超6100万元。 【科创芯片50ETF（588750）标的指数前十大成分股】 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 申万一级行业 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 估算权重 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 688256 | 寒武纪-U | 电子 | -0.86% | 31.90亿 | 10.60% | | 2 | 688981 | 中本国际 | 电子 | -3.55% | 32.52 Z | 9.84% | | 3 | 688041 | 海光信息 | 电子 | -0.05% | 14.62亿 | 9.07% | | 4 | 688008 | 澜起科技 | 电子 | -0.73% | 12.27亿 | 8.41% | | ટ | 688012 | 中微公司 | 电子 | 0.88% | 8.07亿 | 7.10% | | 6 | 688521 | 芯原股份 | 电子 | -3.22% | 5.89亿 | 2.81% | | 7 | 6881 ...

北美云厂商资本开支持续上行；AI芯片国产化率有望持续加速。（1）7月大部分美股科 技股披露了二季度财报，A股也部分披露了中期业绩预告，具体来看：1）北美头部云厂商 Q2云业务维持高增速，资本开支持续上行。谷歌2025Q2云收入同比大涨32%，资本开支 224.46亿美元（yoy+70.23%），上调全年资本开支100亿美元至850亿美元；微软2025Q2智 能云业务增长26%，资本开支170.79亿美元（yoy+23.11%），预计Q3资本开支将超过300亿 美元，远超市场预期；Meta二季度AI驱动核心广告业务增长21.5%，资本开支165.38亿元 （yoy+37.16%），同时上调全年资本开支下限20亿美元至660亿美元；亚马逊2025Q2云计算 业务同比增长17.5%，资本开支313.68亿元（yoy+91.35%），并计划2025全年投入超1000亿 美元资本性支出，大部分用于AI与云业务扩张。2）部分A股端侧AI企业中期业绩亮眼。乐 鑫科技预计上半年营收同比增加33%-36%，归母净利润同比增加65%-78%；瑞芯微预计上半 年营收同比增长约64%，净利润同比增长185%-195%。（2）近期，国 ...

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.08.08 晶圆代工行业龙头 25Q2 毛利率优于指引上限 [Table_Industry] 半导体 中芯国际及华虹半导体发布 25Q2 业绩 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舒迪(分析师) | 021-38676666 | shudi@gtht.com | S0880521070002 | | 吴小沛(研究助理) | 021-23187269 | wuxiaopei@gtht.com | S0880125042240 | 本报告导读： 我们认为在工业及汽车需求修复下，晶圆代工产能利用率有望持续改善，叠加在 地化生产趋势确立，头部 Fab 有望实现业绩增长。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 半导体《AI 发展潜力大，半导体自主可控是关 键》2025.07.24 半导体《景气提升，关注晶圆代工产能扩张及先 进封装稀缺性》2025.07.21 半导体《沐曦股份及摩尔线程科创板 IPO 受理》 2025.07.04 半导体《设置科创 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Citi indicates that Huahong Semiconductor's Q2 revenue reached $566 million, showing a quarterly increase of 4.6%, nearing the upper limit of the company's guidance of $550 million to $570 million [1] Financial Performance - Gross margin for Q2 was 10.9%, an improvement of 1.7 percentage points from Q1, exceeding the guidance of 7% to 9% [1] - Capacity utilization increased by 5.6 percentage points to 108.3% [1] - Net profit was $8 million, a quarterly growth of 112.1%, but still below market expectations of $12.8 million [1] Market Outlook - Despite early inventory buildup in the first half of the year, demand in the second half is expected to be similar to the first half [1] - Price adjustments began in Q2, with expectations for average selling prices to see single-digit increases in the second half [1] Future Projections - The gross margin for Q4 is anticipated to maintain the level seen in Q3 [1] - The expansion of the 12-inch wafer fab (Fab 9) is progressing well, with new capacity expected to come online in 2027 [1] - Earnings forecasts for Huahong Semiconductor have been raised by 18% and 12% for 2026 and 2027 respectively, while the 2023 earnings forecast has been lowered by 31% due to increased tax [1] Investment Rating - The rating remains "Outperform" with the target price increased from HKD 36.9 to HKD 50.5 [1]

Overall Performance - Semiconductor Manufacturing International (SMIC) reported a revenue of $2.2 billion for Q2 2025, slightly above market expectations of $2.16 billion, but a 1.7% decrease from the previous quarter, with guidance indicating a further decline of 4-6% [1][14] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 20.4%, reaching the upper limit of the guidance range (18-20%) and exceeding market expectations of 19.7% [1][4] Revenue and Pricing Dynamics - The decline in revenue was primarily attributed to a decrease in average selling prices, despite a 4.3% increase in product shipment volume [3][17] - The average selling price per wafer decreased by 5.7%, influenced by a higher proportion of lower-priced 8-inch wafer shipments [3][17] Business Segment Performance - Revenue from the smartphone segment grew by only 1.7%, significantly lower than the double-digit growth seen in the past two years, while other segments like PC and consumer electronics experienced declines [2][24] - The company maintained over 80% of its revenue from the domestic market, driven by domestic substitution trends [2][7] Expenditure and Capital Investment - Operating expenses increased, with management expenses rising by 17.6% year-on-year, primarily due to higher factory setup costs [2][31] - Capital expenditure for the quarter was $1.885 billion, indicating a commitment to maintaining high levels of investment despite weak downstream demand [2][31] Future Guidance - For Q3 2025, SMIC expects revenue to increase by 5-7%, translating to $2.32-$2.36 billion, which is below market expectations of $2.37 billion [4][19] - The gross margin guidance for the next quarter is set at 18-20%, lower than the market expectation of 21.1% [4][22] Capacity Utilization and Market Trends - The capacity utilization rate for Q2 2025 was 92.5%, reflecting a slight recovery, primarily due to preemptive stocking of 8-inch wafers by customers [2][22] - The overall semiconductor market remains weak, with cautious outlooks from management regarding demand visibility in the second half of the year [7][9] Regional Revenue Distribution - The revenue from the China region accounted for 84.1% of total revenue, with a slight decline of 1.9% quarter-on-quarter [29][31] - The company’s revenue from the U.S. and Eurasia regions remained relatively low at 12.9% and 3%, respectively [29][31]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the advantages of domestic substitution in the biopharmaceutical supply chain, emphasizing stability, safety, and cost-effectiveness as key drivers for companies to adopt domestic products over imports [3][4]. Group 1: Domestic Substitution Advantages - The stability and safety of the supply chain are crucial for biopharmaceutical companies, especially during disruptions that could lead to production halts. Domestic sourcing mitigates risks associated with reliance on imported critical materials [3]. - Cost advantages are significant, with domestic chromatography media offering substantial price reductions compared to imported counterparts. This cost-effectiveness is enhanced when considering the overall supply chain, as companies often switch multiple related consumables to domestic options [3]. - Domestic suppliers provide localized technical support, collaborating closely with clients to optimize processes and improve product quality, which fosters a competitive environment focused on comprehensive technical solutions [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The trend towards domestic substitution in chromatography media is largely irreversible, with most companies moving from imported to domestic products, and only a few instances of switching between domestic brands [4]. - Large pharmaceutical companies adopt a mixed procurement strategy for chromatography media, balancing between single and multiple suppliers based on their process needs and risk management considerations [5]. - The primary business of the company, Saifen Technology (688758), focuses on the research, development, and production of liquid chromatography materials for drug analysis and purification, positioning itself as a high-tech enterprise with global sales capabilities [5].