证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 11 日 [Table_Title] 上涨趋势确立 [Table_Title2] 类权益周报 [Table_Summary] ►回顾：上涨趋势进一步确立 1 月 5-9 日，类权益市场持续上涨。截至 2026 年 1 月 9 日， 万得全 A 收盘价为 6737.75，较 12 月 31 日上涨 5.11%；中证 转债同期上涨 4.45%，偏股型转债估值明显拉伸。 市场开年大涨，标志着指数脱离 10-12 月的震荡区间，中期 上涨趋势确立。同时，中盘品种受青睐，中证 500 和中证 1000 领涨。此外，热门题材不断涌现，包括脑机接口、商业 航天、半导体材料设备等。在上涨趋势进一步巩固的状态 下，资金对安全边际的需求减小，而对弹性和高度更为重 视。 ►策略：保持乐观和耐心 快速上涨之后，市场难免震荡。万得全 A 的 RSI（相对强弱指 标）已上升至 90 以上，提示短期或有波动。不过，上涨趋势 已然确立，不必对前高之上的波动过于敏感。即使行情大幅 震荡（例如 2025 年 7 月 30 日至 8 月 1 日、9 月 2-4 日），市 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry [4] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical index rose by 7.81% from January 5 to January 9, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.03%. The brain-machine interface and AI medical sectors are expected to remain active in Q1 2026, with a strong rebound in innovative drugs, particularly small nucleic acids [5][25] - The report highlights the potential for significant advancements in small nucleic acids in 2026, driven by breakthroughs in liver-targeted delivery technologies and a surge in clinical data readouts [8][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting innovative drug stocks with strong fundamentals and suggests focusing on companies that have undergone sufficient adjustments [5][49] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical index saw 443 stocks rise and 25 fall during the week, with notable gainers including Innovative Medical (+61.04%) and Sanbo Brain Science (+56.15%). Conversely, Baohua Pharmaceutical saw a decline of -21.65% [5][26][27] Small Nucleic Acids - 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year for the small nucleic acid sector, with advancements in liver-targeted delivery technologies and a high frequency of clinical data readouts expected [8][22] - Arrowhead's delivery platform has shown promising results in clinical trials, validating the feasibility of RNAi therapies for obesity and other conditions [9][11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with leading platform capabilities and differentiated pipeline layouts, such as Rebio Biotech, Yuyuan Pharmaceutical, and Frontier Biotech [20][24] - It also recommends a diversified investment approach, including innovative drugs, brain-machine interfaces, and AI medical technologies [47][48] Market Trends - The report notes that the aging population and increasing healthcare demands are driving growth in the pharmaceutical sector, with a focus on chronic diseases and innovative medical technologies [47] - The report highlights the ongoing trend of domestic companies enhancing their capabilities in the global market, particularly in innovative drug development and medical devices [46][47] Key Companies to Watch - Recommended stocks include China National Pharmaceutical Group, Rebio Biotech, Shanghai Yizhong, and Yuyuan Medical [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The convertible bond market sentiment is high due to the strengthening of equities and seasonal effects. The equity market rose rapidly after the New Year's Day holiday, and the convertible bond market also performed strongly. The median market price of convertible bonds increased by 5 yuan to 138 yuan, and the valuation continued to rise while the underlying stocks were rising. The premium rates of convertible bonds in each parity range are close to the 100% quantile of historical levels, and the convertible bond ETF shows a significant net inflow trend. Looking forward, due to seasonal effects, some institutions with calendar - year assessments such as annuities and securities dealers' proprietary trading may gradually increase their positions in January. There is still a small room for the valuation of convertible bonds to increase. Relative - return investors are advised to allocate small - position and well - balanced non - redeemable equity - biased convertible bonds with suitable premium rates, and absolute - return investors are recommended to focus on high - volatility underlying stocks below 130 yuan or industry leaders with historically low valuations [2][16] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Focus (January 5 - January 9, 2026) Stock Market - A - shares rose rapidly after the New Year's Day holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 points and the daily trading volume reaching nearly 3 trillion yuan. The technology - growth style led the rise, with sectors such as brain - computer interface, commercial aerospace, and controllable nuclear fusion performing well, while the dividend sector lagged behind. By industry, most Shenwan primary industries rose, with the comprehensive (14.55%), national defense and military industry (13.63%), media (13.10%), non - ferrous metals (8.56%), and computer (8.49%) sectors leading the gains, and the banking (-1.90%), transportation (0.23%), petroleum and petrochemical (0.29%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (0.98%) sectors performing poorly [1][6][7] Bond Market - At the beginning of the year, the central bank continued to conduct net withdrawals in the open market, but the capital market remained generally balanced and loose. Affected by the continuous rise of the equity market and the strong performance of the commodity market, the bond market was generally weak in shock. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.88% on Friday, up 1.98bp from the previous week [1][7] Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues rose last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 4.45% for the whole week, the median price rose 3.60%, and the arithmetic average parity calculated by the report rose 5.79%. The overall conversion premium rate decreased by 0.55% compared with the previous week. In terms of individual bonds, the convertible bonds of Seli (AI medical), Dingjie (AI application), Dinglong (semiconductor), Shengxun (AI security), and Borui (innovative drugs) led the gains, while those of Tianchuang (control right change), Dianhua (solid - state battery), Huarui (CNC cutting tools & announced forced redemption), Huanxu (sip module & announced forced redemption), and Maolai (precision optics) led the losses. The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 468.504 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 93.701 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [1][7][11] Views and Strategies (January 12 - January 16, 2026) - The convertible bond market sentiment is high under the strengthening of equities and seasonal effects. The equity market rose rapidly after the New Year's Day holiday, and the convertible bond market also performed strongly. From the data of convertible bond holders in December, public funds and social security funds increased their positions, while the positions of insurance and annuity institutions reached the lowest level since 2022, and the reduction of securities dealers' proprietary trading has slowed down. Looking forward, due to seasonal effects, some institutions may gradually increase their positions in January, and the convertible bond valuation still has a small room for improvement. Relative - return investors are advised to allocate non - redeemable equity - biased convertible bonds with suitable premium rates in small positions, and absolute - return investors are recommended to focus on high - volatility underlying stocks below 130 yuan or industry leaders with historically low valuations [2][16] Valuation Overview - As of January 9, 2026, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan are 51.34%, 41.94%, 29.84%, 26.12%, 23.41%, and 17.71% respectively, located at the 99%/100%, 98%/100%, 96%/99%, 99%/100%, 98%/100%, and 99%/100% quantiles since 2010/2021. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of convertible bonds with parities below 70 yuan is - 4.06%, located at the 2%/5% quantiles since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds is 50.47%, located at the 96%/100% quantiles since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks is 9.41%, located at the 97%/100% quantiles since 2010/2021 [17] Primary Market Tracking - Last week (January 5 - January 9, 2026), Lianrui Convertible Bond announced its issuance, and no convertible bonds were listed. The underlying stock is Lianrui New Materials, a leading company in the basic chemical industry. The scale of the convertible bond issuance is 695 million yuan, and after deducting the issuance fees, it is planned to be used for high - performance high - speed substrate ultra - pure spherical powder material projects, high - thermal - conductivity high - purity spherical powder material projects, and supplementary working capital. As of the announcement on January 9, there are no convertible bonds announced for issuance or listing in the next week. Last week, there was 1 new company approved for registration by the exchange (Naipu Mining Machinery), 1 new company accepted by the exchange (Shangluo Electronics), and 4 new companies with board proposals (Quanxin Co., Ltd., Fujia Co., Ltd., Yilian Technology, Zhenhua Co., Ltd.). As of now, there are 97 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 150.27 billion yuan, including 7 approved for registration with a total scale of 8.34 billion yuan and 5 approved by the listing committee with a total scale of 2.91 billion yuan [24][25]

Core Insights - The ETF market has shown significant performance in technology growth styles, particularly in sectors like brain-computer interfaces, AI applications, commercial aerospace, and semiconductors, with notable market profitability [1][2]. Group 1: Commercial Aerospace ETFs - The commercial aerospace theme ETF, specifically the Yongying National Satellite Communication Industry ETF (159206.SZ), saw a net inflow of 35.89 billion yuan, leading the market in ETF fund inflows [2]. - The Zhaoshang Zhongzheng Satellite Industry ETF (159218.SZ) recorded a net inflow of 13.79 billion yuan, tracking the satellite industry index with major components including China Satellite and Aerospace Electronics [2]. - The funding logic is driven by policy catalysts, technological breakthroughs, and order placements, indicating a high prosperity cycle for the sector [2]. Group 2: Brain-Computer Interface ETFs - The Yongying Zhongzheng All-Index Medical Device ETF (159883.SZ) experienced a net inflow of 14.41 billion yuan, with over 23% of its components related to brain-computer interfaces [2]. - The funding logic is supported by announcements from Neuralink regarding large-scale production of brain-computer interface devices and the inclusion of brain-computer interfaces in China's 14th Five-Year Plan [2]. Group 3: AI Application ETFs - The GF Zhongzheng Media ETF (512980.SH) saw a net inflow of 8.73 billion yuan, focusing on gaming applications related to brain-computer interfaces [3]. - The Huaxia Zhongzheng Animation Game ETF (159869.SZ) also reported a net inflow of 8.23 billion yuan, benefiting from AI cost reduction and efficiency improvements [3]. Group 4: Semiconductor ETFs - The Guotai Zhongzheng Semiconductor Material Equipment Theme ETF (159516.SZ) had a net inflow of 23.18 billion yuan, focusing on AI computing power upstream core targets [4]. - There is a structural differentiation within the semiconductor theme ETFs, with inflows into material equipment and outflows from chip sectors [3]. Group 5: Overall ETF Market Trends - The industry theme ETFs had a net inflow of 138.27 billion yuan over the past week, while broad-based index ETFs experienced a significant net outflow of 129.01 billion yuan, indicating a preference for sector-specific investments [5][9]. - The market is witnessing a divergence in valuations, with major broad-based indices at historical highs while certain sectors, like Hong Kong stocks, are attracting inflows due to lower valuations [7][9].

Quantum Technology - The report highlights the clear positioning of the NISQ (Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum) era, indicating that current quantum devices are operational but limited in capability, lacking fault tolerance and scalability. Experts estimate that small-scale fault-tolerant quantum computers will take about ten years to develop [8][9] - The collaboration between Argonne National Laboratory and Intel has successfully deployed a 12-qubit silicon-based quantum processor, demonstrating the value of mature silicon technology in scaling quantum computing [10] - D-Wave has showcased a scalable on-chip low-temperature control gate model quantum bit, significantly reducing wiring costs and addressing a major bottleneck in the industry [12][14] Biomanufacturing - Micro Yuan Synthesis has secured nearly 300 million yuan in financing to accelerate the development of methanol biomanufacturing, which addresses the reliance on food-based raw materials in traditional biomanufacturing [15][16] - The first gene-consistent human "lung chip" has been developed, providing a new tool for personalized treatment of respiratory diseases and potentially revolutionizing drug development by reducing reliance on animal models [18] Hydrogen Energy and Nuclear Fusion - Policies in Shanghai and other regions are reducing the operational costs of hydrogen vehicles through subsidies and free highway access, which is expected to significantly boost the adoption of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles [19][20] - The report notes that hydrogen energy is transitioning from being a major electricity consumer to a "regulator" of the grid, enhancing the consumption of renewable energy and long-term storage capabilities [25][28] - The Energy Singularity's "Honghuang 70" nuclear fusion device has achieved a 120-second steady-state operation, marking a significant milestone in commercial nuclear fusion technology [31] - Dongsheng Fusion has completed a multi-hundred million yuan angel round of financing to develop a "deuterium-helium-3" fusion route, which is considered safer and more cost-effective than traditional methods [32][33] Brain-Computer Interface - Strong Brain Technology has raised 2 billion yuan to scale brain-computer interface technology, aiming to help one million disabled individuals regain social functionality within five to ten years [38][39] - Sichuan Province has set maximum prices for brain-computer interface medical services, which will take effect in April 2026, facilitating the clinical application of this technology [40][41] - The first brain-computer interface deep brain stimulator surgery in Southwest China has been successfully performed, providing new treatment options for Parkinson's disease [42][43] Embodied Intelligence - NVIDIA has released several physical AI models and frameworks that support robots in understanding physical laws, enhancing the industrialization of robots across various scenarios [5][13] - Chinese companies represent nearly 25% of robot exhibitors at CES 2026, with humanoid robots making up over 50% of the exhibition area, showcasing the competitive edge of Chinese firms in this sector [5][13] Sixth Generation Mobile Communication (6G) - Nanjing has launched a special plan to build a 6G industrial ecosystem, aiming for full coverage of 6G non-cellular networks by 2027 and the establishment of over 50 vertical industry scenarios [5][14]

Group 1: Market Observation - The three major indices experienced a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4100 points and total trading volume exceeding 30 trillion, indicating a robust market structure [1] - The Vice Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Chen Huaping, emphasized the need to improve the institutional environment for long-term investments and to enhance the effectiveness of regulatory enforcement [1] - As of the end of last year, various long-term funds held approximately 23 trillion yuan in A-share market value, a 36% increase from the beginning of the year, while equity fund sizes grew from 8.4 trillion yuan to around 11 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: SpaceX and Satellite Deployment - The FCC approved SpaceX's application to deploy an additional 7,500 second-generation Starlink satellites, increasing the total number of operational second-generation satellites to 15,000 [4] - SpaceX is required to launch at least 50% of the approved second-generation satellites by December 1, 2028, and complete the deployment of the remaining satellites by December 31, 2031 [4] Group 3: Chinese Satellite Industry - The Radio Innovation Institute was established in Xiong'an New Area, involving seven organizations, including China Electronics Technology Group and China Satellite Network Group, to support the development of China's satellite internet [5] - China Electronics Technology Group is deeply involved in the construction of low-orbit satellite internet constellations, covering the entire industry chain from satellite manufacturing to application services [6] - Key companies in the industry include GuoBo Electronics, which is a leading supplier of T/R components for phased array radars, and Chengchang Technology, which focuses on T/R chip design and production [11][8] Group 4: Neuralink and Market Impact - Neuralink announced plans to start large-scale production of brain-machine interface devices in 2026, which is expected to significantly reduce surgical risks and accelerate technology adoption [18] - Following this announcement, A-shares saw widespread price increases, with several stocks hitting their daily limit [18][19] Group 5: Competitive Market Dynamics - The market for brain-machine interface technology is characterized by strong news-driven volatility, with initial surges followed by differentiation among stocks [17][26] - Companies like Pulite and Sanbo Brain Science have seen significant stock performance due to their involvement in both brain-machine interface and commercial space sectors [21][28]

Core Viewpoint - Hanwei Technology (300007) has made breakthroughs in the research and development of non-invasive flexible brain-machine interface materials and flexible neural electrode materials, although these technologies are still in the early stages and commercial application remains uncertain [1] Group 1 - The company has focused on flexible micro-nano sensor technology in recent years [1] - Key technological advancements include complex brain information collaborative monitoring and implantable flexible neural electrode materials [1] - The company collaborates with medical institutions and university research teams for R&D [1]

Market Insights - The market is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by positive factors such as stable prices and improved investment expectations, with overall liquidity remaining ample and trading activity active [3][4] - The CPI for December showed a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, better than the previous value of 0.7%, while the PPI decreased by 1.9%, a smaller decline compared to the previous 2.2% [15][19] - The recovery in PPI indicates price stabilization, which is expected to positively impact corporate profitability and enhance market risk appetite [4][15] Industry Configuration - The military industry sector has reached a historical high in trading congestion, with the defense military trading congestion at 9.4%, the highest since 2000, and the aerospace equipment sector also hitting a record high of 2.3% [21][22] - The growth phase of the market is not yet at its end, as key indicators such as the simultaneous new highs of major growth sectors have not been met, particularly in the electric equipment, computer, and communication sectors [25][26] - The current growth style is showing signs of acceleration, but it does not fully meet the characteristics of a strong market, indicating that the growth phase may still be in its early stages [29][31] Investment Opportunities - The AI industry chain is identified as the strongest mainline investment opportunity, with a focus on computing power, supporting components, and applications [34][35] - Other sectors to watch include storage and energy chains, military industry, and machinery equipment, which are expected to benefit from rising prices and demand driven by AI and geopolitical events [35][36]

Industry Overview - Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) is a new cross-disciplinary technology that creates a communication channel between the brain and external devices, enabling direct information exchange [6] - BCIs can be classified into three types: invasive, semi-invasive, and non-invasive, with applications in medical rehabilitation, consumer interactions, and military fields [7] - The global BCI market is projected to reach $7.63 billion by 2029, growing from $1.2 billion in 2019 to nearly $2 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 13% from 2019 to 2023 [13][14] - Over 1,500 financing events in the global BCI sector have raised nearly $10 billion, with significant investments in both the U.S. and China [16] Policy Guidance - Major countries have launched brain initiatives to support BCI development, with the U.S. investing approximately $4.5 billion in its BRAIN Initiative since 2013 [37][40] - China has initiated its "Brain Science and Brain-Like Intelligence Technology" project, with funding expected to reach hundreds of billions of yuan [39][42] Clinical Situation - The medical demand for BCIs is driven by the need for rehabilitation in stroke and disabled populations, with significant clinical research already underway for various diseases [3][33] - Clinical trials for BCIs are accelerating globally, with a rapid increase in the number of trials in China [3][11] Industry Progress - Notable advancements include Neuralink's implantation of over 10 devices and Synchron's achievement of brain-controlled iPad functionality [4][4] - Key overseas companies like Neuralink and Synchron are leading in the invasive BCI field, focusing on treatment and human-computer interaction [4][4] - Domestic companies are also making strides, with clinical trials accelerating and real-time Chinese language decoding being achieved [4][4] Industry Chain Analysis - The BCI industry chain consists of upstream hardware and software supply, midstream BCI product supply, and downstream applications in various fields [18] - Upstream technology innovation barriers are high, with breakthroughs in flexible electrodes and chips being critical [20][21] - Downstream applications are primarily in the medical field, which is the most mature area for commercialization [30]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly strategy report on overseas equity (Hong Kong and US stocks) by Guotai Junan Futures, dated January 11, 2026 [1][2] 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views - For US stocks, maintain an optimistic outlook, continue with the technology + cyclical allocation strategy, and expect a more balanced market style in 2026 with a "shrinking circle" structure in the technology sector [3] - For Chinese stocks, in the short term, A-shares have better profit - making effects than Hong Kong stocks, and attention should be paid to the subsequent catch - up opportunities in Hong Kong stocks. In the medium term, Hong Kong stocks maintain a barbell strategy [4][7] 3. Summary by Sections US Stocks - **Market Performance and Outlook**: This week, cyclical sectors led the rise in US stocks, and the technology sector continued its "shrinking circle" structure. Next week, the US stock market will face earnings season and inflation data. The outlook remains optimistic, and the technology + cyclical allocation strategy continues [3] - **2026 Allocation Ideas**: The market style will be more balanced, and the K - shaped divergence between technology and non - technology, large - cap and small - cap stocks is expected to converge. Focus on AI technology, healthcare, utilities, finance, materials, and consumer sectors. Prioritize upstream infrastructure in AI technology over downstream software, and pay attention to theme investment opportunities in physical AI [3] - **Valuation**: US stock valuations are still relatively high overall [14] - **AI Bubble**: It is a local rather than a systematic bubble. The market is punishing individual companies with aggressive capital expenditures. Currently, it may be close to the 1997 position from the perspective of the technology industry's ROIC. Monitor the "ROIC - WACC" convergence trend and the divergence between "financing growth" and "profit growth" [20][22] Chinese Stocks - **Market Performance and Outlook**: This week, A - shares outperformed Hong Kong stocks. A - shares' performance was strong in some sectors with high performance certainty and theme - concept sectors. Southbound funds' entry momentum increased, and the pattern may be A - shares leading and Hong Kong stocks catching up. February is the month with the highest winning rate for A - shares historically [4][6][7] - **Short - term Allocation**: Defensively allocate sectors with high performance certainty (AI hardware, new energy leaders, and non - ferrous metals), and offensively allocate valuation - driven sectors (Hang Seng Technology, Hong Kong innovative drugs, commercial aerospace, and robotics) [7] - **Medium - term Allocation for Hong Kong Stocks**: Adopt a barbell strategy, focusing on technology assets with clear industrial trends supported by policies, some new energy sectors with supply - side clearance and demand - side improvement, and non - ferrous sectors benefiting from supply shortages, strong structural demand, and interest rate cuts [7] Odds Analysis - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The forward PE of the Hang Seng Index is 11.8 times, approaching the mean + 1STD since 2015. The forward PE of the Hang Seng Tech Index is 21.4 times, approaching the mean of the past 5 years. The Hang Seng Index ERP is 4.9%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index ERP is 1.1% [9][10]