点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 兴业证券计算机小组 蒋佳霖/孙乾/杨本鸿/陈鑫/张旭光/杨海盟/桂杨 本周观点聚焦 1、本周 观 点： 财报披露冲刺期将至，底部加仓质优龙头 2、深度跟 踪 ： 信创复盘研究：观往知来，超额成长可期 周观点 财报披露冲刺期将至，底部加仓质优龙头 财报披露冲刺窗口将至，建议底部加仓。 截至到 04/19 ，已正式披露 2024 年年报、 2025 年一季报的计算机公司数量分别为 133 家、 12 家，占比为 40% 、 4% ， 距离财报季结束还有 8 个工作日，财报将密集披露。伴随着财报的披露，以及国际形势的变化，板块近期持续调整，但业绩趋势及产业变化偏正向的格局并未变化。同 时，对于市场关心的月历效应，根据统计，自 2010 年以来，计算机指数在 4/5/6 月上涨概率分别为 20% 、 53% 、 60% 。综上，继续建议底部加仓。 MCP 加速 AI 应用落地，积极关注其进展。 MCP （ Model Context Protocol ）通过标准化接口实现 AI 模型与外部工具 / 数据的无缝交互，有助于 Agent 应用快速搭 建。近期，阿里云百炼、腾讯云、百度地图等均 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [33]. Core Insights - The urgency for technological self-reliance in the new situation highlights the potential for the domestic innovation industry to seize new development opportunities. The report suggests focusing on companies with competitive advantages in basic hardware, basic software (databases, operating systems, middleware), and application software [29][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The Shenwan computer sector has seen a cumulative decline of 6.70% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.39 percentage points, ranking 28th among 31 Shenwan primary industries. In April, the sector dropped 8.21%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 5.25 percentage points. Year-to-date, the sector has decreased by 1.22%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.92 percentage points [5][13]. 2. Valuation Situation - As of April 17, 2025, the Shenwan computer sector's PE TTM (excluding negative values) stands at 49.68 times, positioned at the 71.10th percentile over the past five years and the 57.30th percentile over the past ten years [22][26]. 3. Industry News - Key developments include: 1. Chinese lidar brands hold a 92% share of the global market, with RoboSense leading at 26% market share [25]. 2. ByteDance's new model reduces reasoning costs by 50% compared to DeepSeek R1 [25]. 3. Henan province aims for a computing power scale exceeding 120 EFlops by 2027 [25]. 4. The first national standard for cloud supercomputing has been released [25]. 5. OpenAI launched the GPT-4.1 series models, which are seen as a significant upgrade [25]. 4. Company Announcements - Notable announcements include: 1. Chengdi Xiangjiang won a bid for an AI data center project worth approximately 595.41 million yuan [27]. 2. Desay SV plans to repurchase shares worth 300 million to 600 million yuan [27]. 3. Jiechuan Intelligent expects a net profit of 12 million to 17 million yuan for Q1 2025, marking a significant year-on-year increase [27]. 4. Nasda reported a revenue of 26.415 billion yuan for 2024, with a net profit of 749 million yuan [27]. 5. Donghua Software reported a total revenue of 13.323 billion yuan for 2024, with a net profit of 499.7 million yuan [27]. 5. Weekly Perspective - The resurgence of international trade frictions emphasizes the urgency for China to achieve technological self-reliance, potentially accelerating the domestic substitution process. The report recommends focusing on companies with competitive advantages in foundational hardware and software [29][30]. 6. Recommended Companies - The report highlights several companies to watch, including: 1. GuoDian YunTong (002152.SZ) for its stable growth in fintech and deepening layout in data elements and computing power [31]. 2. Digital China (000034.SZ) as a core partner in the "Kunpeng + Ascend" industrial chain [31]. 3. Inspur Information (000977.SZ) for its focus on cloud computing and AI [31]. 4. Tax Friend (603171.SH) for its leading position in fiscal information services [31]. 5. Softcom Power (301236.SZ) for its role in the Harmony ecosystem [31].

截至2025年4月14日 13:40，中证数字经济主题指数(931582)盘中震荡。成分股方面涨跌互现，寒武纪(688256)领涨3.81%，海光信息(688041)上涨2.25%，科 博达(603786)上涨2.24%；拓荆科技(688072)领跌3.96%，纳思达(002180)下跌3.40%，卓胜微(300782)下跌3.20%。数字经济ETF(560800)上涨0.26%，最新价 报0.77元。流动性方面，数字经济ETF盘中换手2.3%，成交1733.39万元。（以上所列示股票为指数成份股，仅做示意不作为个股推荐。过往持仓情况不代表 基金未来的投资方向，也不代表具体的投资建议，投资方向、基金具体持仓可能发生变化。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。) 该机构指出，作为新质生产力的重要组成部分，叠加需求端加快修复预期，计算机行业未来有望迎来业绩和估值的双重提升。我们坚定看好计算机行业未来 的投资机会。 数字经济ETF紧密跟踪中证数字经济主题指数，中证数字经济主题指数选取涉及数字经济基础设施和数字化程度较高的应用领域上市公司证券作为指数样 本，以反映数字经济主题上市公司证券的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年3月3 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [24]. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing evolution of global trade frictions necessitates a focus on investment opportunities within the domestic innovation industry, particularly in the context of rising tariffs and the potential for increased market share of domestic technology products [3][5]. - The introduction of Google's Agent2Agent Protocol aims to standardize interactions between AI agents, which could enhance interoperability and resource sharing across various platforms, thereby fostering ecosystem development [9][11]. - The computer industry is anticipated to experience dual improvements in performance and valuation due to accelerating demand recovery, with specific recommendations for investment in various sectors including domestic innovation, Huawei's supply chain, AI, low-altitude economy, and financial IT [20]. Summary by Sections Industry News and Commentary - The U.S. government has increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, while certain tech products have been exempted from these tariffs, indicating a complex trade environment that may benefit domestic technology sectors [6][7]. - The domestic innovation industry is expected to develop rapidly, with a projected market size exceeding 400 billion yuan for PC and server markets from 2024 to 2028, driven by the increasing acceptance of domestic hardware and software products [8]. Weekly Market Review - The computer industry index fell by 5.79% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which declined by 2.87%. The overall P/E ratio for the computer industry stands at 50.8 times [14][17]. - Among 360 A-share stocks in the computer sector, 32 saw price increases, while 327 experienced declines, reflecting a challenging market environment [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report strongly recommends focusing on the domestic innovation sector, with specific companies highlighted for investment, including Haiguang Information, Longxin Zhongke, and others. Additionally, sectors such as Huawei's supply chain and AI are also recommended for investment [20].

Summary of Conference Call on Computer Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the computer sector, highlighting recent market adjustments and their impacts on various companies within the industry [2][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Adjustment Impact**: The computer index dropped by 12.55% on Monday, with a near 1% recovery on Tuesday. Many computer stocks experienced a 20% adjustment, with around 180-190 companies seeing declines over 15% [2][3]. - **Overseas Revenue**: In 2023, overseas revenue for the computer sector was only 12%, with the U.S. market contributing 2%. This limited exposure means that overall performance is less affected by international market fluctuations [4]. - **Stable IT Spending**: Downstream IT spending remains stable, and the risk from tariff increases is limited due to the low overseas revenue share [4]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies with solid fundamentals and good Q1 performance are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, such as: - **New大陆**: Expected Q1 profit growth over 20% and has initiated stock buybacks [5]. - **通行宝**: Anticipated annual growth of 70%-100% [5]. - **新国都**: Currently undervalued with a projected profit of approximately 7 billion yuan and a market cap of 90 billion yuan [7]. - **科远智慧**: Expected to achieve 3.2-3.5 billion yuan in revenue this year, with a market cap of 48 billion yuan and a P/E ratio of 14, indicating it is undervalued [8]. - **鸿泉物联**: Potential for significant profit growth if domestic policies are fully implemented by 2027 [9]. - **云赛智联**: Projected growth of over 20% this year, with involvement in Shanghai's smart computing initiatives [10]. - **Market Sentiment**: Market sentiment has a diminishing marginal effect on the computer sector. As confidence returns, the sector is expected to rebound more robustly [6]. - **AI Sector Performance**: Companies in the AI application field, such as 赛意信息, 合合信息, and 虹软科技, have strong fundamentals despite market volatility. Their revenue is not heavily reliant on the U.S. market, mitigating risks from international fluctuations [11]. - **信创 Industry Development**: The 信创 industry is accelerating due to international environmental changes, with companies like 华大九天 and 海天瑞声 poised to benefit. Mergers and acquisitions in the tech sector are expected to strengthen foundational capabilities [12]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the computer sector suggests that while recent adjustments have been significant, the underlying fundamentals of many companies remain strong, presenting potential investment opportunities in a recovering market [2][6][12].

Key Insights - The report highlights the resilience of the Chinese market amidst global uncertainties, emphasizing the advantages of domestic circulation and the potential for growth in the equity market [6][9][12] - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports, estimating a negative effect of approximately 8-10 percentage points on export growth and a 1.5-2.0 percentage point impact on GDP [5][21] - The report outlines the government's commitment to boosting domestic consumption through various policies, including a significant increase in special bonds for consumer subsidies [25][28] Macro Analysis - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year in March, while China's CPI is expected to face downward pressure, with a forecasted decline of around -0.4% in April [1][21] - The report anticipates that the Chinese government will implement a fiscal stimulus of 1.5-2 trillion yuan to support domestic demand and consumption [21][22] - The report notes that the core CPI has shown signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in March, indicating potential stabilization in consumer prices [19][22] Banking Sector - The report emphasizes the role of central financial institutions, such as the Central Huijin Investment, in stabilizing market expectations by increasing their holdings in ETFs [9][10] - It highlights the expected continuation of a low-interest-rate environment, which enhances the attractiveness of bank dividends and low volatility [13][12] - The report suggests that the banking sector is poised for a valuation reset, driven by increased long-term capital inflows and improved market efficiency [12][13] Consumer Sector - The report discusses the expansion of the "immediate refund" tax policy for foreign tourists, which is expected to stimulate domestic consumption and benefit high-quality domestic products [25][26][28] - It notes that the government's focus on boosting consumption is reflected in various initiatives aimed at enhancing consumer spending capabilities [25][28] - The report anticipates that the combination of the "immediate refund" policy and relaxed entry visa regulations will significantly contribute to the growth of inbound tourism consumption [26][28] Company-Specific Insights - Gu Ming (古茗) is identified as a leading brand in the Chinese tea beverage market, with a strong focus on quality and a robust expansion strategy [34][36] - The company has maintained a high average profit margin for franchisees, indicating strong brand recognition and operational efficiency [35][36] - The report highlights the company's commitment to supply chain management and R&D investment, positioning it well for future growth in the competitive market [35][36] Industry Trends - Tai Chi Co., Ltd. (太极股份) is noted for its strategic focus on AI and domestic innovation, with expectations for performance improvement in the latter half of the year [38][39] - The company has reported a decline in revenue and profit but is expected to benefit from the acceleration of domestic innovation initiatives [38][41] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating advanced technologies to enhance service capabilities and drive future growth [40][41]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **信创 (Xinchuang) industry**, which is focused on domestic technology development and innovation in response to international trade tensions and tariffs [2][4][6]. Key Points and Arguments - **Impact of Tariffs on the Computer Industry**: The computer industry is characterized by high elasticity, with a recent drop of approximately 13%. Tariffs have a limited impact, as overseas revenue constitutes about 10% of the sector, with only 5% affected by U.S. tariffs [2][6]. - **Growth in Xinchuang Industry**: The Xinchuang industry is experiencing a peak in construction due to fiscal stimulus and a clear quantitative target set for 2027. The demand is high, as indicated by procurement data from Guangdong Province [2][4]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: There is robust demand and supply in the Xinchuang sector, with rapid technological advancements among companies. Fiscal support is enhancing industry sentiment [7][10]. - **U.S. Trade Policies**: The U.S. has expanded its entity list, impacting Chinese semiconductor development and prompting companies to adjust supply chains. This has accelerated domestic innovation and technology upgrades [8][9]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors should focus on the entire Xinchuang sector, analyzing company performance and market sentiment while considering lessons from previous trade disputes [7][26]. Notable Companies in Xinchuang - Key companies to watch include **EDA**, **华大九天 (Huada Jiutian)**, **达梦 (Dameng)**, **中软 (Zhongruan)**, and **软通 (Ruantong)**. EDA is particularly significant due to its critical role in the industry [5][26]. Market Dynamics - **Procurement Trends**: Guangdong Province's commercial PC procurement from January to March 2025 has already surpassed the total for the previous year, indicating strong market growth [14][15]. - **Operating Systems**: The primary operating systems in the Xinchuang sector include **麒麟 (Kylin)** and **统信 (Tongxin)**, which dominate in government and financial sectors [18]. - **Database and CPU Developments**: **达梦 (Dameng)** is a key player in the database market, while **龙芯 (Loongson)** is notable in the CPU space, with products achieving competitive performance levels [19][20]. Future Projections - **PC and Server Sales**: Projections indicate that online PC sales in the government sector will reach 950,000 units by 2025, with significant growth expected in subsequent years [24]. - **Government Support**: The government is providing substantial financial backing for the Xinchuang sector, with plans for long-term bonds and significant funding allocations [23]. Additional Insights - **Global Supply Chain Opportunities**: The instability in global supply chains presents opportunities for Chinese hardware and software companies to expand internationally, particularly in regions involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [12]. - **Market Share Dynamics**: The Xinchuang industry is seeing shifts in market share across various segments, with domestic products gaining ground against established foreign competitors [25]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future potential of the Xinchuang industry amidst ongoing global trade challenges.

Core Viewpoint - Suzhou Kedacom (603660) is focusing on enhancing its product offerings and solutions in line with the digital transformation in China and the domestic trustworthiness industry, aiming for sustainable high-quality growth and significant overseas revenue expansion in the coming years [1][5]. Group 1: Business Strategy and Market Position - The company plans to optimize and iterate its products and solutions to improve overall operational efficiency [1]. - A clear strategy for overseas market development has been established, with expectations for rapid revenue growth in the next two years [1][5]. - The company is actively exploring application scenarios and market opportunities beyond government sectors for its audio and video products [1]. Group 2: Product Development and Technological Advancements - The company has developed self-researched high-performance computing servers, which utilize domestic processors and support local operating systems, catering to both internal and industry-specific needs [2]. - The self-developed large model focuses on vertical industries such as public safety and intelligent transportation, with capabilities for multi-modal analysis of audio and video data [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Opportunities - The video conferencing industry is expected to benefit from domestic production and information security trends, as well as the rise of cloud services for government and enterprises [2]. - The security monitoring industry will gain from urban smartification, intelligent upgrades, and increased demand for wireless monitoring driven by 5G technology [2]. Group 4: Financial Information and Shareholder Engagement - As of March 31, 2025, a total of RMB 244.68 million of "Kedacom Convertible Bonds" have been converted into common shares, representing 7.74% of the total shares before conversion [3]. - The latest conversion price for the bonds is set at RMB 6.38 per share, with a total share capital of 536,725,572 shares as of March 31, 2025 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company focuses on national cybersecurity, emphasizing compliance protection and practical confrontation, while integrating AI technology to enhance its capabilities in data security and confidentiality [5][11]. Company Overview - The company aims to ensure national cybersecurity through compliance protection and practical confrontation, developing nine core capabilities in data security and confidentiality [5]. - The main business areas include host and network security, data security, security supervision platforms, inspection and detection, and password applications [7]. Business Development - The company experienced a decline in revenue due to market conditions, with a main business income of approximately 784.26 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.43% [10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of approximately 125.16 million yuan, but this represented a reduction in losses by 32.82% year-on-year [13]. - The company is focusing on key industries and promoting product trials and market expansion, with expectations for core products to enter a phase of large-scale procurement [11]. Financial Performance - The company has improved its revenue quality, with gross margins for products and integrated projects increasing [11]. - The company has implemented cost control measures, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in operating expenses by 8.60% [13]. Market Position - Established in 2002, the company is a leading provider of cybersecurity and data security products in China, participating in the formulation of national and industry standards [21]. - The company has received multiple awards and recognitions for its contributions to cybersecurity, including being named among the top 50 in various industry rankings [23][29]. Industry Trends - The implementation of national laws and regulations is driving the rapid development of the cybersecurity industry, with significant market potential expected [35]. - The growth of the domestic innovation industry is creating substantial demand for cybersecurity products based on domestic platforms [36]. - Data security is becoming a core focus within the cybersecurity landscape, with increasing emphasis on protecting sensitive information [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1][2]. Core Insights - The company has experienced rapid revenue growth, achieving an operating income of 9.162 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 52.40%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.931 billion yuan, up 52.87% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic high-end processor market, benefiting from the ongoing trend of domestic substitution and the increasing demand for high-performance computing solutions [2][3]. - The report highlights the company's strong R&D investment, which reached 3.446 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 22.63% increase year-on-year, with a research expense ratio of 37.61% [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2024: Revenue of 9.162 billion yuan, net profit of 1.931 billion yuan - 2025: Revenue expected to reach 14.174 billion yuan, net profit of 2.902 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 50.28% [3][5]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: 0.83 yuan - 2025: 1.25 yuan, with projected growth continuing through 2027 [3][5]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Gross margin for 2024 is projected at 63.72%, with a slight decline expected in subsequent years [3][5]. Market Position and Trends - The company is leveraging its core advantages in high-end processors, particularly in CPU and DCU technologies, to capture market share in various sectors including telecommunications, finance, and AI [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of domestic computing power due to U.S. export controls on high-end chips, positioning the company favorably in the market [2][3]. - The introduction of DeepSeek technology is expected to significantly boost demand for cloud computing and edge computing solutions, further enhancing the company's growth prospects [2][3].