各位朋友好，我是帮主郑重，20年财经老炮儿，专唠中长线投资那些事儿。今儿咱聊聊国际金价这事儿——最近金价又开始往上窜了，不少朋友问我：这波 涨势能稳住不？咱得好好掰扯掰扯。 以色列和美军联手空袭也门荷台达港，胡塞武装直接放话要报复，这火药味浓得能点着美股。再加上俄乌冲突还在拉锯，资金慌不择路往黄金里钻。就像打 仗时老百姓囤粮食，现在全球资本也在囤黄金避险，这就是为啥金价能扛住美元反弹往上走。 再来说说央行的动作。世界黄金协会的数据显示，一季度全球央行净买了244吨黄金，虽说比去年少了点，但这相当于每天买2.7吨，比某些小国全年的产量 还多。中国央行更是连续16个月增持，官方储备都快摸到2300吨了。这些大金主们用真金白银给金价撑腰，这基础能不稳吗？ 不过，帮主得泼盆冷水。美联储这只"鹰"虽然暂时不加息，但6月降息的概率已经降到34%，要是美国经济数据继续走强，降息预期还得往后推。到时候美 元可能更强，金价就得承压。而且黄金ETF最近资金流动有点纠结，4月底有1689亿资金撤离，但5月6号又有4.8亿进来，这说明市场分歧挺大，短期波动少 不了。 先给大伙报个数：5月6号现货黄金冲到了3369美元一盎司，上海金交 ...

整体来看，尽管短期需警惕技术性回调风险，但多重宏观因子仍支撑黄金长期走牛：美元指数中枢下 移、全球滞胀风险升温、央行购金常态化形成三重复合驱动，黄金作为避险资产和财富保值的价值凸 显。 2025年开年以来，国际黄金市场呈现持续走强态势，领跑全球大类资产。虽然4月3日受美国加征关税政 策冲击，黄金价格随全球风险资产同步下挫，但其凭借优异的流动性优势率先实现V型反弹。4月22日 盘中更创下3500美元/盎司历史新高，成功突破关键整数阻力位。 多重因素推动之下，黄金成为资本投资的较优选择，在投资者的争相追逐中表现亮眼。本轮黄金上涨的 核心驱动要素包括：1、信用体系重构：特朗普政府重启关税政策引发美元资产抛售潮，美股、美债及 美元指数同步承压。美联储政策独立性遭受质疑，全球货币体系稳定性降低，黄金作为终极信用对冲工 具的价值凸显。2、地缘政治溢价：俄乌冲突常态化与美伊核谈判僵局形成双重风险敞口，叠加中东局 势持续紧张，避险需求维持高位运行。3、央行储备多元化：Q1全球央行黄金净购入量达224吨，中俄 等新兴经济体增持规模同比激增38%，机构配置需求形成强力支撑。 中期维度来看，后市黄金依然处于上涨通道，首先，全球去美 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices have recently declined, with the latest data showing a drop to 782 yuan per gram, down from previous highs [1] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: a shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations, easing geopolitical tensions, and technical profit-taking [1] - There is a notable divergence between physical gold and paper gold, with physical gold demand remaining strong as evidenced by the premium on Au99.99 in the Shanghai Gold Exchange [1] Group 2 - A price comparison among major banks reveals a maximum price difference of 13 yuan per gram, indicating that larger banks tend to have higher pricing due to brand premium and channel costs [2] - Investors can benefit from purchasing gold through bank apps, which typically offer prices 2-3 yuan lower per gram compared to counter prices [2] Group 3 - Investors are advised to monitor U.S. non-farm payroll data and CPI indicators, consider asset allocation with gold comprising 10%-15% of their portfolio, and choose low-fee investment channels like gold ETFs [3] - Caution is advised against blindly shorting gold, ignoring currency fluctuations, and making all-in bets due to the high volatility of gold [3] - Historical data indicates a 67% probability of seasonal declines in gold prices during April-May, but an average increase of 6.8% in the following third quarter [3]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 高位调整 | 特朗普战术上口风放缓，但谈判过程仍然不确定，脱钩仍是主要矛盾，购金力 量仍然较多，长期看，国际秩序破坏，不确定困扰持续，各经济体购金动力积 | | | | 极，黄金是成为未来秩序的重要筹码。长期战略配置价值持续存在【766-800】 | | | | 关税放缓缓解了经济增长忧虑，白银等基本金属情绪有所好转，但长期看细则 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 落地尚需时日。白银弹性大跟随黄金和基本金属波动，仍处于大的震荡区间附 | | | | 近，操作上区间思路对待，秩序将改变，金银比或短期失效。【8000-8500】 | | | | 特朗普改口降低对华关税，但只是缓兵之计，其不确定性是市场主要风险来源，政 治局会议临近，市场情绪回暖，国内需求韧性显现，库存连续去化，短期多单谨慎 | | 铜 | 反弹 | | | | | 持有，回调背靠下方均线把握逢低试多机会，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间 | | | | 【76500，79500】 | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 锌精矿供应平稳增长，终端需求偏弱，锌 ...

周一，美元指数（DXY）暴跌超过1%，一度跌破整数关口98，为2022年3月以来最低点。当天，黄金历 史上首次正式突破3400美元/盎司。 国际金价和美元指数走势对比图（2020年8月至今） 美联储独立性遭质疑 美国总统特朗普上周频繁施压美联储，以及威胁要撤职美联储主席鲍威尔，美联储的独立性正在遭到市 场的怀疑。独立的中央银行被大多数人视为市场经济的基石。企业、投资者、消费者等通过校准银行贷 款和抵押贷款等债务所依据的基准利率来引导经济。 特朗普上周五表示："如果我们有一个了解他在做什么的美联储主席，利率也会下降。"这是他在上周连 续质疑鲍威尔后的最新表态。白宫也表示，官员们正在评估他们是否可以罢免美联储主席。 但美联储官员则密集表达了对白宫干预的反对。周日，芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比就警告不要限 制央行的独立性，称货币政策需要免受政治干预。 古尔斯比在一场公开活动中表示，质疑货币政策独立性将损害美联储的信誉。参议员艾米·克洛布查尔 也支持美联储的独立性，指出法律规定美联储主席只能因渎职或犯罪等"正当理由"被解职。她认为鲍威 尔的工作做得很好，并强调美联储的独立性在应对各种危机中发挥了重要作用。 事实上， ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Strong [1] - Silver: Wide - range adjustment [1] - Copper: Rebound [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Rise and then fall [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Weak [1] - Lithium carbonate: Weak [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term adjustments do not change the strong logic of gold, and it has long - term strategic allocation value; silver is in a wide - range adjustment and should be treated with an interval trading approach; copper is in a rebound, and the long - term outlook is optimistic; zinc rebounds under pressure, with supply increasing and demand weak in the long - term; lead rebounds slightly; tin rises and then falls; aluminum rebounds slightly; nickel continues to rebound; industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are in a weak state [1] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Information**: SHFE gold rose 0.97% to 789.22, COMEX gold fell 0.49% to 3341; SHFE silver fell 0.87% to 8161, COMEX silver rose 0.29% to 33. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio rose 1.87% to 96.71, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio fell 0.78% to 101.70 [2] - **Basic Logic**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points; US economic data declined, such as a 11.4% drop in new housing starts in March and a - 26.4 reading in the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in April. Trump criticized Powell and called for a rate cut. Conflicts in tariff games are the main trend, accelerating the global de - dollarization process. Short - term liquidity shocks persist, and long - term international conflicts support the gold price [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, short - term trading is active, and the long - term logic remains unchanged. Control positions when chasing short - term long positions and maintain a long - term long - allocation mindset. For silver, it is in an oscillating range of [8000, 8500], so use an oscillating trading approach [4] Copper - **Market Information**: LME copper fell 0.49% to 9158 US dollars/ton, and SHFE copper rose 0.3% to 76070 yuan/ton. Copper inventories decreased, and the spot price increased slightly [5] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, but it has not yet affected the electrolytic copper end. In March, domestic electrolytic copper production increased. Due to the escalation of Sino - US trade disputes, terminal consumption was suppressed, but downstream enterprises actively bought on dips, leading to a decrease in domestic inventories [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the increase in US tariffs on China, poor US economic data, and the approaching US debt repayment crisis, beware of the indiscriminate selling of risk assets. It is recommended to go long on copper with a light position near the lower moving average and set a stop - loss. In the long - term, the global copper mine shortage is difficult to ease, and the outlook for copper is still positive. Short - term SHFE copper focuses on the range [75000, 77000], and LME copper focuses on [8800, 9500] US dollars/ton [6] Zinc - **Market Information**: LME zinc fell 0.04% to 2581 US dollars/ton, and SHFE zinc rose 0.23% to 22015 yuan/ton. Zinc inventories decreased, and the spot price decreased slightly [7] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to increase, and the processing fees for domestic zinc concentrates are positive. Many zinc smelters increased production in April - May. After the zinc price dropped, downstream enterprises actively replenished inventory on dips, but the export demand is expected to weaken due to anti - dumping tariffs from Brazil and Vietnam [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the increase in US tariffs on China, poor US economic data, and the approaching US debt repayment crisis, beware of the indiscriminate selling of risk assets. Zinc has rebounded from an oversold condition, but the upside is limited. In the long - term, supply exceeds demand, so look for opportunities to go short on rallies. SHFE zinc focuses on the range [21500, 22500], and LME zinc focuses on [2550, 2750] US dollars/ton [8] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded slightly, while alumina was under pressure. The LME aluminum price fell 0.15% to 2385 US dollars/ton, and the SHFE aluminum price rose 0.51% to 19645 yuan/ton. Aluminum inventories decreased [9] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, US tariffs have affected the market, but domestic inventories have decreased, and the downstream processing industry's overall operating rate has increased. For alumina, some plants have carried out maintenance and production cuts, but the market is still in an oversupply situation, and inventories have risen [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for SHFE aluminum in the short - term, focusing on the depletion of aluminum ingots. The main operating range is [19200 - 20200]. Alumina is expected to be relatively weak [10] Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly, and stainless steel prices rebounded and then fell. The LME nickel price rose 0.96% to 15745 US dollars/ton, and the SHFE nickel price rose 1.65% to 126190 yuan/ton. Nickel inventories increased slightly, and stainless steel inventories increased [11] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas tariff policies have affected the market. In the nickel industry, there are policy disputes in Indonesia, and the production and release of nickel ore are under - expected. Some smelters' raw material inventories are low, and domestic refined nickel inventories have decreased slightly. In the stainless steel industry, inventory depletion has encountered resistance, and exports are blocked, with an oversupply situation persisting [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel in the short - term, focusing on downstream consumption in the peak season. The main operating range for nickel is [122000 - 129000] [12] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The main contract LC2505 opened slightly lower and was weak throughout the day. The prices of lithium - related products were mostly stable, and the inventory of lithium carbonate increased [13] - **Industrial Logic**: Due to weak fundamentals and macro - sentiment, the price of the main lithium carbonate contract has accelerated its decline. During the peak season, the total lithium carbonate inventory has increased for 9 consecutive weeks, indicating that supply growth exceeds demand growth. Sino - US trade frictions and market recession expectations may drag down overseas demand. The ore price still has room to fall, and it is difficult for the lithium carbonate price to get support in the short - term [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to short on rebounds. The price range is [68000, 72000] [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the U.S. financial markets, highlighting the impact of tariff policies and the Federal Reserve's potential interventions on investor sentiment and asset performance [2][3][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - U.S. stock markets rebounded, with the S&P 500 achieving its best weekly performance of 2023 and the Nasdaq rising over 7% for the week [2]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 49.52 basis points this week, marking the largest weekly rise since 2001 [4]. - The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury return index experienced its largest weekly decline since the September 2019 repo crisis [5]. Group 2: Currency and Asset Trends - The U.S. dollar index fell below the psychological level of 100 for the first time since July 2022, dropping over 2.9% this week and recording the most severe two-week decline since November 2022 [7]. - Safe-haven assets performed well, with the Swiss franc reaching its highest level since 2015 and gold prices hitting a record high of $3,245.48, up 6.48% for the week [9]. - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, with the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves decreasing from 66% in 2015 to below 58% by Q3 2024 [10]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to intervene if necessary to stabilize the market, with Boston Fed President Susan Collins stating the Fed is "absolutely" prepared to act [16]. - Collins also noted that high inflation due to tariff increases could slow economic growth, creating a challenging environment for the Fed [17]. - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, warned of a potential "small kerfuffle" in the U.S. Treasury market, suggesting that the Fed may need to intervene after some market panic [18]. Group 4: International Trade Relations - The European Union warned that if negotiations with the U.S. regarding tariffs do not yield results, it may impose taxes on large American tech companies [12][18]. - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the potential for escalating trade tensions, which could significantly impact global trade dynamics [20].

Group 1 - The global financial market is experiencing turbulence, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold, which has reached a new historical high price of over $3200 per ounce [1] - As of April 11, the spot gold price rose by more than 1.7% to $3231.09 per ounce, while COMEX gold increased by 2.2% to $3247.3 per ounce [1][3] - Domestic gold jewelry prices are also rising, with retail prices approaching 1000 yuan per gram, indicating a significant increase from previous levels [3][5] Group 2 - The volume of gold jewelry being recycled has increased by nearly 20% compared to March, as consumers seek to capitalize on rising gold prices [6] - The gap between gold recycling prices and retail prices has widened, currently reaching around 25 yuan, compared to a previous range of about 10 yuan [6] - The gold recycling market is primarily driven by jewelry, which accounts for approximately 90% of the total recycled gold supply, while industrial recycling contributes the remaining portion [6] Group 3 - The World Gold Council reported that global inflows into gold ETFs reached a record high in the first quarter of this year, with significant increases in holdings across major regions [6] - Central banks have been accumulating gold at a record pace, exceeding 1000 tons annually over the past three years, with private investors also increasing their gold investments [6] - UBS has recommended maintaining a 5% allocation to gold in dollar asset portfolios, predicting gold prices could reach between $3200 and $3500 per ounce [6] Group 4 - Analysts suggest that the U.S. government's "reciprocal tariff" policy is accelerating the global de-dollarization process, which in turn strengthens gold's monetary attributes [7] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 from $3100 to $3300 per ounce [7]

Group 1: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose sharply from 4.0% to approximately 4.5% in two trading days, despite weakening economic fundamentals[1] - The recent sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasuries reflects tightening liquidity and/or rising risk premiums rather than economic fundamentals[2] - The U.S. recession risk is increasing, leading to more interest rate cut expectations being priced into short-term Treasuries[2] Group 2: Capital Flows and Trade Policies - Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs are expected to reduce capital account surpluses, leading to capital outflows from the U.S. and selling of dollar assets[3] - The U.S. budget resolution passed in February plans to increase deficits by $2.8 trillion over the next ten years, with an average deficit rate of 5.7%[3] - The net issuance of U.S. Treasuries is expected to rise this year, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and putting upward pressure on Treasury yields[3] Group 3: Long-term Implications and Global Trends - The goal of being a financial and manufacturing powerhouse may be incompatible, as tariffs could distort prices and increase global inefficiencies[3] - The acceleration of global de-dollarization is anticipated, with increased demand for non-dollar safe-haven assets like gold[5] - The volatility of U.S. Treasury yields is expected to increase due to the conflicting impacts of capital flows and economic fundamentals[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next six months [4][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 303.64 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 32.05 billion yuan, up 51.76% year-on-year [4]. - The company's main metal production saw significant increases, with copper production at 1.07 million tons and gold production at 73 tons, reflecting growth rates of 6% and 8% respectively [4]. - The company has made substantial progress in resource exploration, with significant discoveries in various regions, enhancing its resource reserves and production capacity [4]. - The report anticipates continued growth in copper and gold prices, driven by supply disruptions and increasing demand from the renewable energy sector, which supports the company's revenue growth outlook [4]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 20.37%, an increase of 4.56 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 12.97%, up 3.92 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The forecast for 2025 and 2026 projects earnings per share of 1.44 yuan and 1.75 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 12.57 and 10.34 [5].