Core Viewpoint - The rapid disbursement of 300 billion yuan in national subsidies is significantly boosting consumer spending in various sectors, including automobiles, home appliances, and digital products, leading to increased sales and tax revenues for local governments [1][11]. Group 1: National Subsidy Program - The central government has issued 1.5 billion yuan in special long-term bonds for the "trade-in" subsidy program, which will increase to 3 billion yuan by 2025 [3][5]. - The distribution of the 3 billion yuan subsidy will be based on factors such as population, GDP, and previous performance in implementing the trade-in policy, with a focus on regions that have shown effective results [5][6]. Group 2: Regional Implementation - Chongqing has received 3 billion yuan in special long-term bond funds, with a high subsidy application rate leading to significant consumer spending [2][4]. - As of May 21, Chongqing has processed 48.5 billion yuan in trade-in subsidy applications, with 24.7 billion yuan disbursed, achieving an 82.3% disbursement rate [2]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The trade-in subsidy program has led to a notable increase in retail sales, with Chongqing reporting a 4.1% year-on-year increase in social retail sales in Q1 [2]. - The program has driven sales of over 8.3 trillion yuan across five major product categories, contributing to a positive shift in tax revenue growth [11]. Group 4: Fund Management and Oversight - The central government emphasizes strict fund management to prevent misuse, with measures including a negative list for fund usage and a multi-tiered oversight system [12][14]. - Local governments, such as in Chongqing and Shandong, are implementing advanced monitoring systems and collaborative regulatory frameworks to ensure compliance and efficiency in fund distribution [13][14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the home appliance industry is experiencing a performance and valuation resonance opportunity due to export recovery and ongoing national subsidy policies, with a profit growth of 28.64% year-on-year in Q1 [1][3] - Domestic performance is benefiting from national subsidy policies, leading to continuous marginal improvement in earnings, while the export sector is seeing significant recovery in production due to easing tariffs in the U.S. and high demand in emerging markets [1][3] - The national subsidy policy is expected to continue stimulating home appliance demand, with an expanded coverage that supports the industry's growth [1][3] Group 2 - The home appliance sector has shown strong financial performance, ranking high in profit growth rate and ROE among 30 first-level industries, with a financial status ranking of fifth in Q1 2025 [3] - The export sector is under pressure from U.S. tariffs ranging from 30% to 55%, but the situation is improving, allowing for a recovery in production and a return of bargaining power for manufacturers [3] - The home appliance sector is attracting significant net inflows of capital, reflecting market recognition of its low valuation, high dividend yield, and strong safety margins [1][3]

海信家电 20250522 摘要 2025 年第二季度，国内市场的重点是 618 购物节。4 月份线上价格竞争激烈， 618 期间竞争仍然激烈。一季度国补资金到位程度不及预期，预计二季度情况 会有所改善。销售结构方面，低端机型在价格竞争中占主导地位，但高端品牌 如 COLMO 和新风空调表现良好。内销利润方面，销售结构将有部分支撑，大 宗原材料成本未回到去年高位水平。 外销方面，在 4 月份 145%关税时订单增 长约为 5%。关税下降后，中国发往美国的订单恢复，美国接单情况边际好转。 四季度和一季度有抢出口情况，渠道库存处于消化状态，预计 6 月库存水平恢 复正常。 高线城市家电需求疲软，受国补政策透支影响严重。线上渠道价格竞争 激烈，各品牌采取多品牌策略或推出流量机型应对，长期来看产品质量 和耐用性是关键。 海信家电海外市场拓展趋势明确，自主品牌份额提升是关键，海外利润 率预计每年改善 0.5 个百分点。公司经营质量有望改善至微利，但汽车 零部件行业压力较大。 海信家电在关税下降后有什么新的经营举措？短期内是否不会再向美国额外囤 库存？ 美国市场将按照正常节奏出货，因为二季度末低于 145%的关税水平下货 ...

Smartphone Industry - Global smartphone shipments increased by 1.5% YoY in Q1 2025, while China's shipments rose by 3.3% YoY, driven by demand recovery and preemptive stockpiling by brands like Apple in response to tariffs [1][2] - Apple's performance indicates limited impact from tariffs due to inventory and supply chain optimization, with potential to maximize avoidance of future tariffs through global production strategies [2] - Domestic Android brands are less affected by tariffs, with a focus on subsidy policies and AI innovations to boost sales [1][2] PC and Tablet Market - Global PC shipments grew by 4.9% YoY in Q1 2025, reaching 63.2 million units, attributed to preemptive shipments due to tariffs and the transition to Windows 10 alongside AI innovations [3] - The industry anticipates a mild recovery in 2025, with significant impacts expected from AI PC innovations showcased at events like COMPUTEX [3] Wearable Technology - AI glasses shipments reached 600,000 units in Q1 2025, marking a 216% YoY increase, primarily driven by Meta's Rayban glasses [3] - The wearable technology sector is projected to see a 135% YoY increase in total sales for 2025, reaching 5.5 million units [3] XR (Extended Reality) - VR and MR demand showed a decline of 23% YoY in Q1 2025, with total sales expected to drop by 19.3% for the year [4] - AR sales remained stable, with growth potential linked to AI-integrated AR glasses expected to launch later in the year [4] Smart Home Devices - Global TV shipments saw a slight increase of 1.2% YoY in Q1 2025, with expectations for continued growth in Q2, driven by domestic market demand [5] - The upcoming release of the Nintendo Switch 2 is anticipated to stimulate replacement demand [5] Automotive Industry - Domestic vehicle exports are minimally impacted by tariffs, with a notable increase in domestic sales by 11% YoY in Q1 2025 [6] - The automotive sector is witnessing advancements in intelligent driving technologies, with several companies launching new systems [6] Robotics Sector - Tesla's Optimus robot project is progressing well, with plans to deploy thousands of units in factories by the end of the year [6] - The robotics industry is expected to enter a mass production phase in 2025, with significant contributions from various tech companies [6]

报告导读： 4月财政收支增速边际回升，反映经济韧性。二季度或主要加快落实存量政 策，关注城市更新项目的进展以及两新政策的力度。 狭义收入：增速继续回升。 2025 年 1-4 月，全国一般公共预算收入同比下降 0.4% ，但是 4 月当月增 速 1.9% ，相比 3 月的增速 0.3% 有所回升。在海外不确定性扰动、我国 PPI 价格低位运行的情况下， 4 月财政收入增速回升反映了积极财政发力后，经济表现出一定的韧性。从主要分项看，增值税、消费 税、企业所得税收入增速边际回落。个人所得税收入增速明显回升。此外，出口退税增速虽然边际回落， 但是表现尚可，或与出口受转口贸易的支撑有关。接下来，随着关税局势缓和，外需或边际回升。此外， 非税收入增速持续回落，可能对地方收入有所拖累。 狭义支出：增速平稳，保障民生。 2025 年 1-4 月，全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 4.6% ，其中从 4 月当月同比增长 5.8% ，相比 3 月的增速 5.7% 略微抬升。从节奏看，目前支出进度与过去两年的同期 水平大体相当。这体现出，财政政策仍较为积极，对经济保持应有的支持力度。 政府性基金：收入回升，支出提速。 2025 年 ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 领先 2025 年 5 月 20 日 互联网行业月报 国补持续拉动 4 月电商平稳增长；1 季报超预期 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源 : FactSet 5/24 9/24 1/25 5/25 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 行业表现 MSCI中国指数 谷馨瑜, CPA connie.gu@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5330 孙梦琪 mengqi.sun@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5333 zhao.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5332 蔡涵 hanna.cai@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5334 估值概要 | | FactSet( | 未评级为一致预测 | ) | ，交银国际预测 | 覆盖公司 ( ) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资料来源： | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 领先 2025 年 5 月 20 日 互联网行业月报 国补持续拉动 4 月电商平稳增长；1 季报超预期 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源 : FactSet 5/24 9/24 1/25 5/25 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 行业表现 MSCI中国指数 谷馨瑜, CPA connie.gu@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5330 孙梦琪 mengqi.sun@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5333 赵丽, CFA zhao.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5332 蔡涵 hanna.cai@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5334 估值概要 | | FactSet( | 未评级为一致预测 | ) | ，交银国际预测 | 覆盖公司 ( ) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资料来源： | | | | | | | | | | | ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 05 月 19 日 社零数据点评 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | 占比% | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 133 | 2.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 1172.3 | 1.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 1076.2 | 1.4 | 行业指数 | % | 1m | 6m | 12m | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 4.1 | 28.9 | 27.5 | | 相对表现 | 10.2 | 31.3 | 21.5 | 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 相关报告 1、《商贸社服行业周报—京东外卖 上线百亿补贴，京东盒马等企业助力 出口转内销》2025-04-14 4 月社零同比+5.1%，国补品类保持增速领先 消费品/商业 2025 年 4 月社会消费品零售总额为 37174 亿元，当月同比+5.1%；实物商品网 上零售额当月为 9317 亿元，当月同比+6.1%。4 月社零及电商大盘维持相对稳 健增长，国补品类增速保持领先。当前内需有望发力，若刺激消费政策出台消 费互联网龙头将显著受 ...

AI时代让厂商从系统层面针对交互体验展开更深入、灵性的思考，而不是简单比拼配置、价格等。 随着AI大模型能力逐渐丰富，端云协同能力进一步提升，已经有多款千元以内智能手机搭载AI功能。 近日，星纪魅族发布Note 16系列AI手机，标配版售价在699-1099元，叠加国补后594.15元起，全系在千 元以内；Pro版本叠加国补后1614.15元起，售价均在1800元以内。根据官方介绍，两款机型都搭载了新 升级的Flyme AIOS 2，目前已深度接入阿里云首个端到端全模态大模型Qwen-Omni。 当然对千元左右价位档的手机来说，如何在有限的端侧计算能力下，更好发挥AI整体效用是重要命 题。 "要做到实时在线、主动服务，确实还有很长一条路要走。在往这个方向迈进过程中，最重要不是考验 算力，而是手机系统对用户使用习惯的学习，然后再推出主动服务。"周详分析道。 综合来看，虽然将AI大模型相关能力融入智能手机中已经有两年左右时间，但目前为止，手机厂商之 间展示的应用场景相似度较高，如何在AI这一轮浪潮下找到与大模型更好的契合点，是当前需要面对 的重要命题。 对此，周详告诉21世纪经济报道记者，对于AIOS系统的设计侧 ...

2025 年 05 月 18 日 公司点评 增持/维持 天音控股(000829) 目标价: 昨收盘:9.95 国补、AI 助力终端业务回暖，电商业务成第二增长极 ◼ 走势比较 (20%) 4% 28% 52% 76% 100% 24/5/20 24/7/31 24/10/11 24/12/22 25/3/4 25/5/15 天音控股 沪深300 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 10.25/10.24 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 102/101.9 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 16.83/7.3 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<电商平台收入大幅增长，业绩有望 迎来拐点>>--2023-05-06 <<电商平台收入大幅增长，汽车销售 业务值得期待>>--2022-10-26 证券分析师：李仁波 电话： 0755-83688853 E-MAIL：lirb@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190520040002 事件：近期公司发布年报及一季报，公司全年实现总营收 840.38 亿 元，同比减少 11.38%；利润总额 1.33 亿元，同比减少 ...