Core Viewpoint - The Italian wine industry is facing significant challenges due to fluctuating U.S. tariffs, which have created uncertainty and financial strain for local producers as they prepare for the upcoming harvest season [2][6][10]. Industry Impact - Italian wine producers are experiencing anxiety as U.S. tariffs have led to delays in shipments, with many orders being postponed due to unpredictable tariff policies [5][8]. - The Italian wine sector is projected to lose approximately €317 million over the next year due to the implementation of a 15% tariff on most EU goods entering the U.S. [10]. - In 2024, Italy is expected to export wine, spirits, and vinegar worth €2 billion to the U.S., accounting for nearly a quarter of the global export value for these products [6]. Producer Challenges - Local wine producers are forced to lower their prices by about 5% to maintain relationships with U.S. partners, which negatively impacts their profit margins [8][10]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs is prompting Italian wine producers to consider diversifying their markets rather than relying heavily on the U.S. market [10][12]. - The current situation has led to a buildup of unsold inventory, with producers unable to cover storage costs due to the lack of sales [8][10].

Core Insights - Vietnam's exports in the first half of August decreased by 13.5% to $20.06 billion due to the impact of the US's 20% "reciprocal tariff" policy [1] - Imports also fell by 2.6% to $20.29 billion, leading to a total trade volume of $40.36 billion, which is an 8.4% decline compared to the second half of July [1] - Cumulatively, as of August 15, Vietnam's exports reached $282.62 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15%, while imports totaled $272.59 billion, with an 18.3% increase [1] - The total trade volume for the year so far stands at $555.21 billion, marking a 16.6% year-on-year growth [1] - The Director of the Import-Export Department of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Nguyen Anh Son, indicated that the trade situation for Vietnam is expected to remain complex and unpredictable until the last months of 2025 due to US trade policy pressures and global economic slowdown [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests going long on industrial products on dips in commodities and stock index futures [4] Core Viewpoints - In July, the global economic data showed resilience. China's official manufacturing PMI declined, but exports increased year - on - year. The money supply exceeded expectations, while financing and loan data were weak. The US non - farm payrolls data in July was below expectations, but the service PMI improved significantly [1] - The US has adjusted "reciprocal tariffs", and the impact of tariffs on inflation and the economy needs time to fully manifest. The Fed's July meeting minutes signaled a hawkish stance [2] - The manufacturing PMIs in the US and the Eurozone in August exceeded expectations, with Germany's manufacturing showing a strong recovery [2] - Different commodity sectors have different characteristics. The black and new energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations, and the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products and the stability of agricultural products are worth noting [3] Market Analysis - China's economic data in July: the official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3, non - manufacturing remained in expansion, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, money supply exceeded expectations, but investment data faced pressure. The 30 - year Treasury yield reached a new high since December last year, and the total social power consumption reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% [1] - US economic data in July: non - farm payrolls data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved significantly. The "Big Beautiful" Act may support subsequent consumption [1] - Future outlook: the "reciprocal tariff 2.0" is in effect, and subsequent demand needs attention. There is a divergence between market sentiment and fundamentals, and the volatility risk of commodities should be guarded against [1] Tariff and Trade Agreement - The US has adjusted the "reciprocal tariff" rate. The EU and the US have reached an agreement on a trade deal framework. The EU will cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US agricultural products. The US will impose a maximum tariff rate of 15% on most EU goods [2][6] - The US and China have suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days until November 10. The US has included 407 product categories in the steel and aluminum tariff list, and Trump may announce semiconductor tariffs with a rate of up to 300% [2] Commodity Analysis - Black and new energy metal sectors: the black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry is worthy of attention [3] - Non - ferrous sector: supply constraints have not been alleviated [3] - Energy sector: the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose, with OPEC+ accelerating production increases by 548,000 barrels per day in August [3] - Chemical sector: the "anti - involution" space of products such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worthy of attention [3] - Agricultural products: there is no short - term weather disturbance, and the fluctuation range is relatively limited [3] Other Key Information - The total social power consumption in China in July reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, breaking through the trillion - kWh mark for the first time globally [1][6] - The yields of China's 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds have risen [1][6] - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most members believed inflation risk exceeded employment risk, and the impact of tariffs needed time to fully manifest [2][6] - Russia and India plan to jointly exploit resources [3][6][7]

Group 1 - The company indicated that nearly 50% of its exports are to the United States, highlighting a significant market dependency [1] - The tariffs imposed by the U.S. are shared between the company and its customers, indicating a collaborative approach to managing costs [1] - The company is actively communicating with customers to recover lost orders during the recent "reciprocal tariffs" delay, showing proactive engagement in maintaining business relationships [1] Group 2 - Orders from the U.S. are gradually recovering, suggesting a positive trend in the company's performance despite the tariffs [1] - There has been an increase in exports to Europe and Asia, which has helped to offset some of the revenue decline from the U.S. market [1]

Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The economic data in July showed resilience globally, but there were still pressures in China's monthly economic data. The market sentiment and fundamentals were divergent, and attention should be paid to the potential demand changes after the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs 2.0" [1]. - The current tariff situation was in a "stagnant" phase, which would have a certain negative impact on commodities highly dependent on external demand. There were uncertainties regarding tariffs and inflation, and the export of Japan was significantly affected [2]. - Different commodity sectors had different characteristics. The black and new - energy metal sectors were sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, and the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefited from overseas inflation expectations. The "anti - involution" progress and the restoration of the economic fundamentals before the introduction of the April reciprocal tariffs were the key points for future market trends [3]. - For commodities and stock index futures, industrial products should be allocated on dips [4]. Market Analysis - In July, China's official manufacturing PMI declined to 49.3, while non - manufacturing remained in expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, and the central bank kept the LPR unchanged. In the US, the July non - farm payrolls data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved. The implementation of the "reciprocal tariffs 2.0" required attention to subsequent demand [1]. - On August 20, A - shares rose, with semiconductor, automobile, and liquor sectors performing strongly, while pharmaceutical stocks adjusted. Most domestic commodity futures declined, with lithium carbonate down 8%, soda ash down 5%, and glass down over 4% [1]. Tariff Impact - On July 31, the White House issued an executive order to reset "reciprocal tariffs" for some countries. The US and China agreed to suspend the 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025. The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% rate, and Trump might announce a 300% semiconductor tariff [2]. - After the July FOMC meeting, Powell did not give guidance on a September rate cut, emphasizing uncertainties in tariffs and inflation. Japan's exports in July had the largest year - on - year decline in four years, especially to the US [2]. Commodity Analysis - The black and new - energy metal sectors were sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, and the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefited from overseas inflation expectations. The black sector was dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persisted [3]. - The energy supply was expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term, with OPEC+ increasing production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. There were positive developments in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and Trump had no plan to impose tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil [3]. - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea was worthy of attention. The short - term fluctuations of agricultural products were limited due to the absence of weather disturbances [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, industrial products should be allocated on dips [4]. Key News - China's five - year and one - year LPR in August remained unchanged at 3.5% and 3%, respectively [5]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues and expected to meet again before November [5]. - The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list on August 19. Trump called for the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The eurozone's July CPI met expectations, and Japan's exports in July had the largest decline in four years [5].

新华财经罗马8月21日电（记者高婧妍）随着美国政府经过调整的"对等关税"于本月7日生效，意大利葡 萄酒商此前对出口的担忧和焦虑已转变为现实层面的经济损失。不少意大利酒商和业内人士表示，美国 关税使当地酒庄出口利润受损，葡萄酒行业受到冲击。这种情况下，酒庄被迫调整市场策略。 在达维科看来，美国对意大利葡萄酒征收15%的关税，并不等同于美国市场上的酒会对应涨价15%。在 各种环节的共同作用下，也许酒会涨价30%。法比奥认为，关税最终会由酒商、进口商和消费者等多方 共同承担。 酒商或转变市场策略 为减少风险、降低对美国市场的依赖，许多意大利酒庄开始寻求多元化的市场策略。记者走访过程中发 现，不少酒庄对加强与亚洲、特别是中国经销商的合作充满信心，希望未来能拓展新的出口渠道。 葡萄酒业受直接冲击 意大利葡萄酒生产商协会数据显示，2024年，意大利向美国市场销售价值20亿欧元的葡萄酒、烈酒和醋 类产品，占该品类全球出口额近四分之一。15%关税正式生效后，意大利作为欧洲重要葡萄酒生产国， 出口形势再次面临变化。 圭多·波罗（Guido Porro）酒庄位于意大利皮埃蒙特大区，其葡萄酒对美出口约占酒庄总出口量的 40%。酒庄 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that President Trump has signed an executive order to extend the suspension of tariffs on China for another 90 days, which has sparked widespread attention and discussion internationally [1] - The background includes the announcement of a "reciprocal tariff" policy in April, with a goal to reach 90 agreements within 90 days, but only limited progress has been made with countries like the UK and Vietnam [1][3] - The extension of the tariff suspension can be interpreted as a compromise by Trump, as domestic opposition to excessive tariffs is growing and the trade stagnation is putting pressure on U.S. businesses and consumers [3] Group 2 - Some viewpoints suggest that both the U.S. and China may be seen as "winners" from the tariff agreements, as U.S. consumers avoid high prices and Chinese exporters can relieve some pressure [5] - However, the 90-day suspension may only serve as a temporary measure for the Trump administration, and the future situation remains uncertain [5] - In contrast, other countries like the EU, Canada, and Japan have faced strong countermeasures from China, indicating that while U.S.-China relations may be easing, tensions with other nations are escalating [5][6] Group 3 - China has taken retaliatory actions against the EU, Canada, and Japan, including placing two EU banks on a countermeasure list and launching an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola oil, with a dumping margin of 75.8% [5][6] - The measures against Canada and Japan are a response to perceived dumping practices that have severely impacted Chinese industries [6] - These actions demonstrate China's commitment to protecting its interests and its unwillingness to tolerate any infringement, especially from countries aligning with the U.S. [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The core variable of U.S. trade policy remains Trump himself, with a highly controversial tariff strategy expected to be prevalent in the coming years, necessitating countries to become the "greatest common divisor" connecting different trade circles to gain future discourse power [2][23]. Group 1: Trump's Tariff System - Trump's tariff strategy has evolved from targeted "surgical strikes" during his first term to a more comprehensive approach in his second term, characterized by four main components: reciprocal tariffs, punitive tariffs for specific reasons, transshipment tariffs to combat tax avoidance, and industry barriers to protect domestic industries [4][8]. - The "reciprocal tariffs" framework establishes different tariff boundaries for countries, with core countries like the UK and Australia enjoying a baseline tax rate of 10%, while others face rates ranging from 15% to over 25% [5][6]. Group 2: Punitive Tariffs - Punitive tariffs are increasingly used as a core tool for handling diplomatic matters, with various justifications, including combating cross-border crime and exerting geopolitical pressure [8][9]. - The U.S. has raised tariffs on Canadian goods from 25% to 35% due to insufficient cooperation in drug trafficking control, while also imposing additional tariffs on Indian goods due to its purchase of Russian oil [8][9]. Group 3: Transshipment Tariffs - The U.S. has implemented transshipment tariffs to prevent circumvention of tariffs through third countries, imposing a 40% tax rate on goods attempting to bypass tariffs [10][12]. - The challenge lies in the ambiguous definition of "transshipment," which complicates enforcement and necessitates a collaborative regulatory framework with partner countries [12][13]. Group 4: Industry Tariffs - The U.S. has invoked the 232 clause of the Trade Expansion Act to impose high tariffs on strategic industries, aiming to reverse the trend of industrial hollowing and promote domestic manufacturing [16][17]. - Tariffs on steel and aluminum products have been set at 50%, with potential future tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals reaching as high as 300% [17][19]. Group 5: Trade Negotiation Dynamics - Tariffs serve as a preliminary tool in trade negotiations, with the Trump administration relying heavily on verbal agreements, leading to disputes over the interpretation of key terms [20][21]. - The lack of written agreements has resulted in confusion and disagreements in negotiations with countries like Japan and South Korea, affecting the finalization of trade deals [20][21]. Group 6: Economic Impact - The U.S. has entered a high-tariff era, with the average effective tariff rate rising to 18.6%, the highest level since the Great Depression [23]. - The implementation of tariffs has caused fluctuations in import data, with a significant spike in imports prior to tariff enforcement, followed by a decline as companies adjust to the new cost structure [25][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market situation in July 2025, including economic data, tariff policies, and geopolitical events. It also provides investment strategies for commodities and stock index futures, suggesting to allocate more industrial products on dips. [3][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Global economic data in July remained resilient. China's official manufacturing PMI declined to 49.3, while non - manufacturing remained in expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, supported by the low base last year and the "rush to export" effect. US non - farm payrolls in July were below expectations, but the service PMI improved significantly. [3] - The "reciprocal tariff" situation is complex. The US has adjusted tariff policies, and some tariffs have been suspended or extended. The impact on commodities is significant, with different sectors affected differently. The black and new energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side changes, while energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations. [4] - On August 19, A - share indices fluctuated, with the trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeding 2 trillion yuan for five consecutive days. AI hardware stocks were strong, and consumer stocks such as liquor rebounded. Treasury bonds rebounded, and commodities declined. [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate more industrial products on dips. [5] To - do News - On August 18, Premier Li Qiang emphasized at the State Council's Ninth Plenary Meeting to enhance the effectiveness of macro - policies, boost domestic consumption, and expand effective investment. [6] - The US, Russia, and Ukraine are promoting peace talks. Trump said that if all goes well, there will be a tri - lateral meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine, and Putin supports direct negotiations between the two sides. [4][6] - The Japanese Ministry of Defense is coordinating to include a defense budget of about 8.8 trillion yen, the largest in history. [4][6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments held a symposium on the photovoltaic industry, aiming to standardize the competition order. [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The core variable of US trade policy remains Trump himself, and his controversial tariff strategy is expected to be prevalent in the next two to three years, with any country aiming to gain future discourse power needing to become the "greatest common divisor" connecting different trade circles [2][23]. Group 1: Trump's Tariff System 2.0 - During his first term, Trump initiated a trade revolution centered on "America First," using tariffs as a primary weapon, which ignited global trade disputes and altered the existing international trade landscape [4][5]. - In his second term, Trump's tariff tactics evolved into a more structured and comprehensive approach, consisting of four main components: reciprocal tariffs for trade balance, punitive tariffs for specific reasons, tariffs on transshipment to combat tax avoidance, and industry barriers to protect domestic industries [5][6]. Group 2: Reciprocal Tariffs - The "reciprocal tariffs" create a trade circle centered around the US, with countries like the UK and Australia enjoying a baseline tax rate of 10%, while others face higher rates based on their trade relations and concessions made to the US [6][7]. - As of August 29, 2023, new regulations require small packages valued at $800 or less to pay certain taxes upon entry, with specific rates based on the country of origin [7]. Group 3: Punitive Tariffs - Trump increasingly uses punitive tariffs as a core tool for handling diplomatic matters, with various justifications, including combating cross-border crime and exerting geopolitical pressure [9][10]. - The US has implemented significant tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, and additional tariffs on Chinese products, with the potential for further increases based on cooperation in drug trafficking issues [9][10]. Group 4: Transshipment Tariffs - To close potential loopholes in tariff policies, the Trump administration established a "transshipment" clause allowing customs to impose a 40% tariff on goods attempting to circumvent tariffs through third countries [11]. - The challenge lies in the ambiguous definition of "transshipment," which complicates enforcement and creates uncertainty for US customs [12][13]. Group 5: Industry Tariffs - The US has invoked the 1962 Trade Expansion Act's Section 232 to impose high tariffs on strategically important industries, aiming to reverse the trend of industrial hollowing and enhance domestic supply chain resilience [16][17]. - Tariffs have been applied to steel, aluminum, and are expected to extend to semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, with a notable exemption for companies investing in the US [16][17][18]. Group 6: Oral Agreements and Execution Discrepancies - Tariffs serve as a preliminary tool in trade negotiations, with the Trump administration relying heavily on oral agreements, leading to confusion and disputes over key terms [20][21]. - Discrepancies in the interpretation of agreements have hindered finalizing trade deals, as seen in negotiations with Japan and South Korea [20][21][22]. Group 7: Transition to Inventory Reduction Cycle - Following the implementation of high tariffs, the US has entered a phase of inventory reduction, with significant declines in inventory growth rates for durable and non-durable goods [28][29]. - The shift in import demand is attributed to the finalization of tariff policies and the completion of pre-tariff procurement, leading to a focus on inventory digestion and price adjustments [29][30]. Group 8: Global Trade Landscape Transformation - The global trade structure is undergoing a profound transformation towards a multipolar development, moving away from reliance on the US-China economic model to a more decentralized network of regional trade alliances [23][30]. - Countries aiming to secure future discourse power must position themselves as essential hubs within these diverse trade networks [23].