12月10日，和讯投顾李景峰表示，站在当前位置，创业板指已连续三天远离5日均线，有回调预期。恰 好赶上美联储周三晚上、周四凌晨的议息会议，在这个时间点，资金会选择谨慎观望。远离均线会增加 获利盘，遇到压力位会增加套牢盘，都有增加卖盘的预期，所以今天回调正是前两天所说的节奏，即远 离均线后回靠5日均线。大家注意到没，这两天直播时我连续提到，港股已提前回调，原因是美联储降 息利好落地，因为大家都知道此次降息后，下一次降息概率可能降低。同时，站在这个窗口期，美股包 括纳斯达克指数、道琼斯指数都已提前反映了降息预期，降息落地就意味着利好兑现，美股也是走强后 靠5日线、10日线的节奏。此时若硬让A股上涨，并不现实，我们应对市场宽容一些，让它适当休息， 否则市场"累趴下"对我们更不利。所以我认为，目前回调不是坏现象，按照我讲的大框架，市场应是走 强、回调、再走强、再回调的节奏，这个位置应有一个五浪结构，奔着上轨去。美联储降息落地后，短 时间利好兑现，未来新预期减少，但市场跌得差不多后，自然会寻找机会，比如春季躁动行情预期、险 资加仓预期，险资风险因子下降，必然会主动寻找加仓时机，像易中天等方向，最近就有险资加仓，中 和e ...

今日，上证指数涨0.54%，深证成指涨1.39%，创业板指涨2.6%，北证50涨1.27%。全市场成交额2.05万亿元，较上日成交 额放量3126亿元，时隔16个交易日再度站上2万亿元大关。 板块题材上，市场结构性分化显著，科技一枝独秀，AI硬件概念王者归来，光模块、光电路交换、光芯片、光通信、玻璃 纤维、高速铜连接、两岸融合等板块涨幅靠前，市场人气明显聚集，而随着市场风险偏好持续回升，资金从避险板块中流 出，此前表现较强的央企煤炭、煤炭开采、磷化工、汽车整车、化学原料及电力等板块跌幅居前。申万一级行业上，通 信、综合、电子、非银金融、计算机等行业领涨，主要聚焦于科技（TMT）板块；而煤炭、石油石化、食品饮料、公用事 业、钢铁等行业表现疲软，主要集中在消费与周期板块。 板块层面，关注AI硬件等科技方向，近期迎来产业利好催化，调整后性价比显著。自9月以来，AI硬件等科技方向持续震 荡调整，主要是因为AI泡沫论等声音放大，英伟达走势疲弱对A股形成不利映射。不过，虽然英伟达尚未复现当初的强 势，但谷歌作为AI一体化龙头重新接棒，展现出AI行情更多是切换而非是结束。与此同时，被称为"中国版英伟达"的摩尔 线程于上周五 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both the construction and building materials sectors [10]. Core Viewpoints - The construction and building materials sector is expected to experience a spring rally in 2026, driven by improvements in construction PMI, order volume, and favorable market conditions such as a later Spring Festival and strong domestic excavator sales [13][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend and price-increasing stocks, recommending companies with stable performance and high dividend yields, as well as traditional building materials with price increase potential [13][19]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: sustainable growth in renovation, thorough industry clearing in construction materials, and opportunities in high-quality leading companies in various segments [14][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights a potential spring rally for the building materials sector, supported by fiscal improvements and strong domestic machinery sales [19]. - Historical data shows that the building materials index has a high probability of outperforming the market in Q1, with a 57% chance of rising based on past performance [15]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends several companies, including China Chemical, China National Materials, and Xinyi Glass, with target prices and buy ratings [10][38]. - Specific recommendations include: - China Chemical (601117 CH) - Target Price: 12.05 - China National Materials (600970 CH) - Target Price: 14.23 - Xinyi Glass (868 HK) - Target Price: 9.54 - Others include China United Plastic, Jinggong Steel Structure, and Dongfang Yuhong [10][38]. Market Dynamics - Recent data indicates a 1.2% week-on-week increase in national cement prices, while the average price of float glass has risen by 2.3% [2][28]. - The report notes that the domestic float glass market is stabilizing, with some regions experiencing price increases due to supply constraints [28][30]. - The electronic fabric market is also showing signs of price increases, driven by demand from PCB clients [25][33]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued demand in the cleanroom engineering and special electronic fabric sectors, with a focus on companies that can adapt to new production capabilities and traditional industry upgrades [14][19]. - The construction sector is expected to benefit from urban renewal initiatives and the ongoing recovery of the real estate market, with a focus on renovation and construction materials [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The non-bank sector's effective timing indicator has seen a drop in trading volume share to 2%, historically indicating the potential for excess returns when combined with external catalysts [1][2]. Group 1: Non-Bank Sector Indicators - The trading volume share of the non-bank sector fell to 2%, with a previous low of 1.5% observed [2]. - External catalysts, such as the adjustment of investment risk factors by insurance funds and proposals to expand broker capital space and leverage limits, have triggered excess returns in the non-bank sector [2]. Group 2: Historical Trends and Market Behavior - Historical data shows that non-bank sector movements (daily gains over 3%) during the year-end and early-year window often signal the start of a volatile market [3]. - Since 2010, in 15 instances of year-end and early-year windows, 7 were accompanied by non-bank sector movements, indicating a correlation with the initiation of volatile market conditions [3]. Group 3: Market Performance Post Non-Bank Movements - Following non-bank sector movements, the overall market typically experiences an upward trend, with average increases of 6.8%, 9%, and 12.8% over the subsequent 10, 20, and 30 trading days, respectively [6]. - In the 20 trading days following non-bank movements, indices such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 have shown superior performance, with large-cap growth and value styles leading in average returns [9].

Core Insights - The non-bank sector's effective timing indicator shows a drop in trading volume to 2%, historically leading to excess returns when combined with external catalysts [1][8] - Recent developments, including a reduction in investment risk factors by insurance funds and proposals to expand brokerage capital space and leverage limits, have catalyzed the non-bank sector [1][8] Historical Context - Historically, significant movements in the non-bank sector at the year-end and beginning of the year often signal the start of a volatile market [3][9] - Since 2010, in 15 instances of year-end and beginning of the year windows, 7 have seen the initiation of volatile markets coinciding with non-bank sector movements [3][9] Market Performance - Following non-bank sector movements, the overall market typically enters an upward phase, with average increases of 6.8%, 9%, and 12.8% over the next 10, 20, and 30 trading days respectively [4][10] - In the 20 trading days following non-bank sector movements, indices such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 tend to outperform, with large-cap growth and value styles showing higher average returns [5][11] Statistical Data - The historical performance data indicates that the average returns for various indices and sectors post non-bank movements are significant, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing an average return of 19.8% in certain periods [12]

本周，A股市场先涨后震荡回调，市场量能也在萎缩，就在市场担忧大盘可能二次探底的时候，周 五市场大幅上扬，消除了二次探底的担忧。全周，除科创50指数收跌之外，其余宽基指数的周度表现均 收涨。 那么，这是否意味着自周二开始的短期回调已经结束了？后市机会有哪些？今天，达哥和牛博士就 大家关心的问题进行讨论。 牛博士：达哥，你好，又到我们周末聊行情的时间。本周行情比较平淡，操作难度较大，周五大盘 大幅上扬消除了二次探底的担忧。对于后市行情，你怎么看？周五收盘至今传来了一些重要消息，对于 市场影响几何？ 道达：周五收盘后至今，传来了多个利好，为市场中长期向好发展又打下了基础。 一是，据多家媒体报道，中国证券投资基金业协会修订形成了《基金管理公司绩效考核管理指引 （征求意见稿）》，该指引已下发至部分基金公司。 从指引来看，绩效薪酬的递延支付不少于三年，递延的比例不少于40%。此外，高级管理人员、主 要业务部门负责人应当将不少于当年全部绩效薪酬的30%购买本公司管理的公募基金，其中购买权益类 基金不得低于60%。基金经理绩效薪酬的40%要用来购买本人管理的基金。 这意味着，基金经理"躺着"赚管理费的时代结束了。基金经理只有 ...

Core Viewpoint - A500ETF Southern (159352) is experiencing significant market activity and growth, driven by favorable economic policies and investor sentiment, indicating a potential bullish trend in the A-share market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 8, A500ETF Southern (159352) saw an intraday increase of over 1%, currently up 0.91%, marking a potential three-day rally with a turnover rate of 27.21% and a transaction volume of 5.97 billion [1]. - The underlying index, the CSI A500 Index (000510), also rose by 0.91%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Tianfu Communication (300394) up 20.00% and Maiwei Co. (300751) up 18.44% [1]. - Over the past three months, A500ETF Southern (159352) has experienced a scale increase of 3.93 billion, with a net inflow of 739 million over the last three days [1]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Context - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on December 8, emphasizing the need for stable economic growth and the implementation of proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies for 2026 [1][2]. - The market is expected to benefit from easing geopolitical risks and renewed expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may trigger a pre-spring rally in the A-share market [2]. Group 3: Index Characteristics - The CSI A500 Index is designed to cover high-quality large and mid-cap A-share companies, focusing on emerging manufacturing and consumption upgrade sectors, and is recognized as a "barometer of China's new productivity" [2]. - The index employs a unique compilation logic that prioritizes industry leaders and excludes negative ESG factors, covering approximately 90 sub-industries and including major companies with market caps in the hundreds of billions [2]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI A500 Index include Ningde Times, Kweichow Moutai, and China Ping An, among others, reflecting a balanced distribution across key sectors [2]. Group 4: Investment Features - A500ETF Southern (159352) offers the lowest fee structure in the industry with a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, providing investors with a high-precision, low-cost investment channel [3]. - The fund's high liquidity meets trading demands, while its associated funds facilitate convenient regular investments, positioning it as a versatile investment tool for the new era [3].

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a continuous volume contraction rebound, with improved funding conditions due to the warming expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and enhanced effectiveness of domestic fundamental pricing [1] - Recent improvements in the TMT and upstream resource sectors have been notable, with a focus on AI chains, pricing chains, capital goods, consumer goods, and infrastructure chains [1] - The upcoming "spring restlessness" in mid to late December may lead to an early start, balancing growth and cyclical investments, with a mid-term view favoring large financials and certain high-value consumer stocks as core choices for asset revaluation in China [1] Group 2 - The market is experiencing a rotation of volatility and structural opportunities, with traditional manufacturing and resource sectors being undervalued in terms of global pricing power [3] - Since the "9.24 market" last year, the overall market has seen a systematic increase in financing, with a net increase of 1.11 trillion yuan, significantly surpassing the total issuance of public and private bullish products since October of the previous year [3] - Major broad-based indices and thriving sectors have achieved most of their gains during these two market waves, while other periods have been relatively flat, with effective gains seen in quant-driven micro-accounts, insurance-driven banks, and price-driven non-ferrous metals [3] Group 3 - The market remains in an upward trend supported by funding and policy, with expectations for the A-share market to continue its bull run next year, supported by valuation and profit stabilization [4] - Easing geopolitical risks and renewed expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are likely to bring a pre-spring restlessness rally to the A-share market, with upcoming U.S.-China policy expectations being a key factor [4] - The AI sector is expected to continue its momentum under the 2026 U.S.-China interest rate cycle and strengthening AI trends, with a focus on "scarcity" in energy and power, as well as dual development in AI applications and ecosystem construction [4]

Group 1 - A total of 11 regions in China have disclosed the use of special bond funds for government investment funds, with a total scale exceeding 80 billion yuan this year [1] - Experts believe that investing special bond funds into government investment funds reflects the optimization of medium-term fiscal planning, supporting major development strategies and fostering new economic growth drivers [1] Group 2 - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security have released new drug directories, adding 114 new drugs, including 50 innovative drugs, to enhance drug accessibility [2] - The new commercial health insurance directory includes 19 innovative drugs, covering treatments for various diseases, and will be implemented nationwide starting January 1, 2026 [2] Group 3 - The primary market is showing signs of recovery, with hard technology becoming a consensus direction among various investment institutions, indicating it as a hot investment area for the future [3] Group 4 - A-share major indices have mostly risen due to improved market sentiment and risk appetite, with the ChiNext Index rising by 1.86% over the past week [4] - Analysts expect a "spring rally" in 2026 as new favorable factors emerge, following the digestion of high valuations in previously high-performing stocks [4] Group 5 - The chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission outlined the development direction for the securities industry over the next five years, emphasizing the need to strengthen four mission responsibilities and improve five key areas [5] - The securities industry is seen as a key service provider for direct financing and a crucial player in capital market management [5] Group 6 - China's foreign exchange reserves stood at 33,464 billion USD at the end of November, marking a 30 billion USD increase from October, maintaining above 33,000 billion USD for four consecutive months [6] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months, indicating a steady diversification of international reserve assets amid external uncertainties [6] Group 7 - The bond market is facing challenges, with a significant decline in bond funds, including a specific fund dropping over 7% in a week, raising concerns about potential defaults [8] - Approximately 70% of bond funds have experienced a general decline over the past month due to liquidity expectations [8] Group 8 - A new performance assessment guideline for fund management companies emphasizes long-term investment performance, linking compensation to fund investment returns [9] - The guideline requires that performance indicators account for at least 80% of the assessment weight for senior executives and fund managers [9] Group 9 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to ease capital space and leverage restrictions for high-quality securities institutions, promoting innovation in the securities industry [10] - The regulatory body aims to implement differentiated supervision for small and foreign securities firms while strictly regulating problematic firms [10] Group 10 - The copper futures price in Shanghai has reached a record high, with a year-to-date increase of 31%, and the total capital in copper futures has increased by 28.4 billion yuan [11] - Market participants are advised to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy despite the overall upward trend in copper prices [11] Group 11 - Recent regulatory changes have lowered risk factors for insurance companies, potentially releasing 108.6 billion yuan for investment in the stock market, particularly in the CSI 300 index [12] - This adjustment is expected to enhance the solvency of insurance companies and guide investment targets [12] Group 12 - The performance of listed securities firms has improved significantly, with a 62.48% year-on-year increase in net profit for 43 A-share listed securities firms in the first three quarters [13] - There has been a surge in institutional interest in securities firms, with 28 firms undergoing institutional research in the fourth quarter [13]

Core Viewpoint - Recent regulatory measures have been introduced to attract long-term incremental capital into the market, boosting market confidence and leading to a rise in major stock indices [1] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The Financial Regulatory Authority has lowered the risk factor for insurance companies holding long-term stocks, reducing the risk factor for stocks held over three years in the CSI 300 index from 0.3 to 0.27 [1] - This adjustment is estimated to release approximately 20 billion in minimum capital for insurance funds, potentially bringing in an additional 76.4 billion to 150 billion in market funds if fully allocated to stock investments [1] Group 2: Market Performance - On December 8, the Shanghai Composite Index opened high and rose, with the CSI 300 index increasing by nearly 1%, and the non-bank financial sector leading the gains [1] - The securities sector saw significant movements, with Ruida Futures hitting a consecutive limit-up and Industrial Securities reaching the daily limit, while the ETF for securities surged over 3% [1] Group 3: Brokerages and Leverage - The China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to moderately optimize risk control indicators for quality brokerages, which will enhance capital space and leverage limits, improving capital utilization efficiency and long-term profitability [1] - Given that the leverage ratio of Chinese brokerages is significantly lower than that of domestic and international financial peers, there is a focus on the potential revaluation of brokerage sector values [1] Group 4: Investment Environment - The current low interest rate environment and the level of securitization indicate that the valuation of the CSI 300 index remains within a reasonable range [1] - The lowest fee product tracking the CSI 300 index is the Huaxia CSI 300 ETF (510330.SH), with a management fee of only 0.15% per year, providing a low-cost investment tool for investors [1] - Several institutions, including Xinda Securities and Huatai Securities, are optimistic about an early "spring rally," suggesting that December may serve as a window for positioning for the upcoming year-end market [1]