智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，观察到26年春运首周人员流动稳健增长、26年春节假期机酒预订 表现较好，看好最长春节期间休闲旅游需求释放。此外，在社服行业呈现出需求企稳筑底或回升（如免 税）、供给端竞争趋缓格局趋稳（如酒店、咖啡、部分餐饮）的背景下，继续看好实现价格止跌回升或 同店修复的优质头部。 中金主要观点如下： 旅游：看好最长春节期间休闲旅游需求释放 据交通运输部数据和该行测算，春运前7天（2/2-2/7）全社会跨区域人员流动量同比增长约2.3%，其中 铁路/公路/水路/民航客运量分别同比+0.7%/+2.3%/+15.8%/+5.9%；航班管家测算26年春运40天民航旅客 运输量预计同比+5.3%。航旅纵横显示截至1/29春节机票日均预订量同比+16%，出入境机票预订量同比 略有增长。 免税：26年春节假期海南客流同比表现亮眼；25年同期销售额基数较低 客流方面，由于去年同期低基数、海南自贸港封关政策红利释放等综合影响，26年春节假期海南机票预 订同比表现亮眼。根据去哪儿数据，截至1月13日，26年春节假期三亚/海口机票预订量同比 +90%/120%。海口海关数据显示25年春节离岛免税日均销售额2 ...

Group 1: Tourism and Dining Industry - The demand for dining reservations, especially for New Year's Eve dinners, is peaking as the Spring Festival approaches, with traditional restaurants in cities like Qingdao innovating their offerings to attract consumers [1][4] - In Beijing, suburban homestays are becoming popular choices for families celebrating the New Year, featuring festive decorations and appealing local dishes [6][7] Group 2: Robot Rental Market - A new trend in service robotics rental is emerging, particularly during the Spring Festival, with a notable increase in demand for robots in various applications, including entertainment [8][10] - The number of robot rental companies in China has surged, with over 1,500 established by 2025, marking a 48.1% increase compared to 2024 [10] Group 3: Agricultural Market Supply - In Taiyuan, large agricultural markets are actively organizing supplies to ensure adequate availability of fresh produce for the Spring Festival, with daily vegetable trading volumes between 1,500 to 2,000 tons [12] Group 4: Floral Market - The flower market is experiencing a surge in activity as the Spring Festival approaches, with various auspicious flowers being popular among consumers, enhancing the festive atmosphere [13][15][17] Group 5: Cultural and Entertainment Events - The Zhangyuan New Year Garden Party in Shanghai has attracted many visitors, featuring traditional performances and the opening of new stores, contributing to the vibrancy of the Spring Festival cultural and tourism market [17]

Macro and Strategy Research - Long-term care insurance (referred to as "long-term care insurance") is designed to mitigate the financial risks associated with long-term disabilities, providing economic security or service payments to individuals requiring ongoing personal care and medical assistance. There are three models in practice: social insurance, commercial insurance, and care allowances. To address the medical care needs arising from an aging population, China's long-term care insurance system has been piloted in 49 cities, transitioning from a "pilot" phase to a "promotion" phase during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2][4]. - Japan's long-term care insurance was implemented in 2000, mandating that individuals over 40 must enroll. Funding is shared equally between public funds (taxes) and insurance premiums. Care service costs are generally covered 90% by the insurance, with individuals responsible for 10%, and some high-income groups covering 20-30%. The application process for care services follows a detailed recognition process, ensuring that public resources are prioritized for those in greatest need. As of April 2024, approximately 6.7% of the insured population utilizes care services, indicating that the insurance primarily addresses the low-frequency, high-risk care needs of the elderly [3]. - Currently, China's long-term care insurance system is still in the "pilot" stage, with only 0.8% of beneficiaries among participants as of 2024. Under the directive to "promote long-term care insurance" during the 14th Five-Year Plan, provinces like Hainan, Yunnan, and Hebei have released implementation plans. The insured groups include employees, retirees, flexible workers, and unemployed rural residents, with payment ratios of approximately 70% for employees and around 50% for non-employed rural residents [4]. - In comparison, there are notable differences between China's long-term care insurance and Japan's system in terms of funding sources, insured groups, benefit systems, and protected populations. Japan's long-term care insurance has undergone eight rounds of reforms, emphasizing a "prevention-first" approach, which can help control costs and establish community prevention and intervention systems for mild disabilities, serving as a significant reference for China's long-term care insurance system [5]. Fund Research - The public fund market saw a total scale exceeding 280 billion yuan, with the equity market experiencing a downturn. During the week from February 2 to February 6, 2026, all major equity indices declined, with the largest drop being 5.76% in the STAR 50 index. Among 31 primary industries, 18 saw gains, with the top five performing sectors being food and beverage, beauty care, electrical equipment, comprehensive, and transportation [6][8]. - The average decline for equity funds was 2.27%, with only 18.81% achieving positive returns. Fixed-income plus funds fell by an average of 0.23%, with 40.77% showing positive returns. Pure bond funds increased by 0.08%, with a remarkable 98.70% positive return rate. The average decline for pension target funds was 0.73%, with only 3.52% achieving positive returns. QDII funds also saw an average decline of 2.54%, with 13.95% showing positive returns [8]. - The ETF market experienced a net inflow of 14.899 billion yuan, with only cross-border ETFs achieving net inflows of 21.624 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume in the ETF market reached 619.629 billion yuan, with an average turnover rate of 9.49% [8]. Industry Research - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming Spring Festival consumption, with a focus on the potential recovery of valuations in the home furnishing sector. Nine departments have jointly issued a document to create a festive consumption atmosphere during the Spring Festival [10][13]. - From February 2 to February 6, the light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.29 percentage points, while the textile and apparel sector outperformed by 2.66 percentage points [10]. - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have launched the "2026 'Happy Shopping Spring' Special Activity Plan," which will take place from February 15 to 23, aiming to stimulate consumption through innovative cross-sector collaborations and incentives to enhance consumer participation. This policy is expected to positively impact the consumption of home appliances and home decoration products during the implementation period [13].

本报讯 近日，记者从攀枝花市商务局获悉，今年春节假期，当地计划推出50场消费促进活动，涵 盖"商圈喜乐汇""年味嘉年华""文艺润新春""新春焕新购"四大板块，全方位满足市民游客的多元 消费需求。 攀枝花各大商圈是春节氛围营造的主阵地，萌宠嘉年华、随舞大赛、新春音乐会、超级特卖年货 大集等一系列线上线下活动，持续烘托新年气氛。 走进乡野，攀枝花市仁和区的立新村、迤沙拉村将推出田园音乐季，带来"音乐+咖啡+逛吃"一体 化的新潮体验；攀枝花市西区的庄上村、盐边县的桐子林镇等地，将举办新春晚会、烟花秀。 "文化大餐"同样精彩纷呈。春节前夕，攀枝花苏铁自然遗产保护展示馆正式开馆，为市民游客提 供沉浸式文化体验。各地还将开展多项慈善游园、义诊义剪、写春联送福字等活动，为新春佳节 增添一抹温暖。 此外，攀枝花还将推出实实在在的优惠大礼包——2026年家电数码以旧换新活动火热进行，186户 国补商家推出了专属优惠活动，持续激发消费市场活力。 ...

春节的脚步越来越近，河南省方城县的大街小巷年味渐浓。对于不少方城人来说，传统糕点是不可或缺 的年货。眼下，"河南老字号"、市级非遗——方城"尚记糕点"正开足马力抢时间、忙生产、赶订单，全 力满足年货市场需求。 如今，经营了上百年的"尚记糕点"，品种已达70多种。该企业一直采取"前店后做"的经营模式，以确保 糕点的口感与新鲜度。一箱箱包装精美的传统糕点从这里发往全国各地，成为居民餐桌上的年味记忆， 也将深深的新春祝福送到了千家万户。（王小玲） 2月6日，走进方城"尚记糕点"的生产车间，浓浓的年味扑面而来。3条自动化生产线高速运转，数十名 工人在各自的工位上紧张有序地忙碌着。配料、打面、打饼、成型、烘烤……每一道工序都透露着对传 统手艺的敬畏与坚守。该企业负责人尚兆克介绍："现在每天生产面包类产品的有3条生产线，糕点上有 4口大锅，一天要生产出来三四千套礼盒。30多个员工早上七点半上班一直到夜里10点，满负荷。" 尚兆克告诉记者："每年春节我们都要提前两个月生产，一直能持续到腊月二十八。过罢年正月初二又 接着开始生产，一直到正月十五。每年生产20多万套礼盒。" "糕"与"高"谐音，寄托着人们对新年的美好期盼。随着 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The consumer sector saw mixed performance, with retail experiencing a decline while food and beverage, beauty care, textiles, and home appliances showed positive growth [5]. - The introduction of the "zero tariff" policy in Hainan is expected to benefit duty-free enterprises significantly, as it allows local residents to purchase exempt goods up to 10,000 yuan annually, enhancing stable consumption outside of tourism [5][17]. - The "2026 'Happy New Year' Spring Festival Special Activity Plan" aims to stimulate consumption during the holiday period, promoting various sectors including retail, dining, and tourism through incentives and events [5][19]. Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector's weekly performance from February 2 to February 6 showed the following changes: food and beverage (+4.31%), beauty care (+3.69%), textiles (+1.32%), home appliances (+1.28%), social services (+0.02%), and retail (-0.34%) [5]. - Notable stock performances included Huangtai Liquor (+13.50%), Minbao Optoelectronics (+115.92%), and Hangzhou Jiebai (+33.75%) among the gainers, while ST Yedao (-15.69%) and Deep Kangjia B (-37.23%) were among the losers [5][15][16]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The "zero tariff" policy for Hainan residents is a significant development, allowing for a stable increase in consumption and benefiting leading duty-free operators [17][18]. - The Ministry of Commerce's Spring Festival plan includes measures such as cash rewards for purchases, increased subsidies for trade-ins, and enhanced financial support to boost consumer spending during the holiday [19]. - Key company announcements include: - Muyuan Foods reported a 2.73% increase in pig sales in January 2026, but a 16.92% decrease in sales price [20]. - Chongqing Beer reported a slight revenue increase of 0.53% for the year, with a 10.43% increase in net profit [20]. - Baidu China announced a significant increase in operating profit and store expansion [20].

随着春节临近，年货市场也逐渐火热。这两天，黑龙江省多地开始进入年货采购高峰期，节前市场供销两旺。 黑龙江多地进入年货采购高峰期 马上就要到春节了，家家户户也在为年夜饭提前做准备。春节前各市场供销两旺，为了满足消费者多场景的购买需求，许多商户纷纷推出"省心大礼包"。 为了应对节前集中采购高峰，哈尔滨市各大批发市场、商超通过每日监测、产地直采、动态补货等方式，确保重点商品库存充裕，品类丰富。 乡韵浓人气旺 京郊大集品别样年味 活动现场，洋溢着新春喜悦与国潮气息的舞蹈《新春跃舞潮味浓》点燃了热烈氛围。非遗节目串烧《塞上非遗闹新春》中，宁夏小曲、秦腔、杂技、武术表 演等轮番上演，还加入了机器人元素，展现了独特的魅力与时代活力，引来阵阵掌声。 现场首次发布了10条"宁夏非遗美食旅游线路"，串联起从贺兰山到六盘山、从黄河沿岸到沙漠绿洲的特色美食与旅游资源，为游客提供了"可品鉴、可游 玩、可体验"的春节出游指南。同时，还发布了"乐购新春"宁夏春节特别活动，围绕"吃、住、游、购、娱"等推出184场促消费活动，活动期间，作为全国有 奖发票50个试点城市之一，银川市同步发布"有奖发票"活动内容，为消费者送上"政策红包"与"诚意好 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors is maintained at "Neutral" [7][43]. Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming "2026 'Le Gou New Spring' Special Activity Plan" issued by nine departments, aimed at boosting consumption during the Spring Festival from February 15 to 23, which is expected to stimulate demand in key consumer sectors such as home furnishings, home appliances, and home decoration [6][42]. - The report notes a price increase of 50 yuan/ton for various paper products, including kraft and corrugated paper, effective from March 2, driven by changes in market supply and demand dynamics [6][15]. - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.29 percentage points during the period from February 2 to February 6, with a sector performance of 0.96% compared to the CSI 300's -1.33% [4][35]. - The textile and apparel sector also outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.66 percentage points during the same period, with a sector performance of 1.32% [4][39]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The "2026 'Le Gou New Spring' Special Activity Plan" aims to enhance consumption through innovative cross-sector collaborations and incentives to stimulate immediate consumer spending [6][15]. - The report mentions a price adjustment in the paper industry, indicating a recovery in the corrugated paper market due to various factors including reduced production and low inventory levels [6][15]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends "Buy" ratings for companies such as Oppein Home (603833), Sophia (002572), and Semir Apparel (002563) [4][43]. - The report also highlights the performance of companies like Tianan New Materials and Jian Sheng Group, noting their recent share buybacks and shareholder actions [3][34]. Market Performance - The light industry manufacturing sector's performance was bolstered by factors such as changes in control and acquisitions, while some companies faced adjustments due to previous overvaluation [4][36]. - The textile and apparel sector saw significant gains in specific companies, with notable increases in stock prices for firms like Cai Bai Co. and Bang Jie Co. [4][39].

浙江平湖：金平湖灯秀点亮城市夜空 央视网消息：春节将近，年味渐浓。各地通过灯会、非遗等年俗活动等营造节日气氛，促进消费。 江西上饶：舞起板凳龙鲤鱼灯 热热闹闹过新年 春节来临，江西上饶婺源以"烟火福运年"为主题，推出系列春节民俗活动，板凳龙腾跃、鲤鱼灯游弋，搭配震撼人心的打铁花与璀璨烟花 秀，让来自五湖四海的游客沉浸式感受徽州年味。 在泰兴市张桥镇的"非遗迎春"活动上，孩子们在非遗传承人的指导下小心翼翼地吹气塑形，一匹匹栩栩如生的糖"马"就此诞生。画糖画的 非遗体验也很受欢迎，孩子们拿着自己的作品留下新春照片，记录下2026年的美好瞬间。 重庆大足：鲤鱼灯舞巡游迎新春 这两天，重庆市大足区的年节氛围热闹起来，鲤鱼灯舞开启迎新春巡游。巡游队伍穿行在集镇街巷，吸引了不少市民、游客观看、互动。 2月7日晚，在浙江平湖市，2026金平湖灯秀点亮城市夜空。700架无人机腾空而起，在平湖市东湖上空不断变换队形，一个个灵动的造型 轮番呈现，为在场游客献上了一场科技感十足的视觉盛宴。 江苏泰兴：水乡冬捕尝鱼鲜 "吹"匹糖马迎新春 春节将至，江苏省泰兴市举行了趣味十足的捕年鱼活动，周边城市的游客纷纷慕名而来，共同体验传统渔俗， ...

消息面上，继老铺黄金线下门店呈现排队热潮后，2月7日，云集众多国际品牌旗舰的上海恒隆广场，迎 来了"传世经典传世生活——老铺黄金经典作品展"。老铺黄金继"金胎珐琅十二月花神金杯"后，用漆器 螺钿传世工艺将"十二月花神漆器螺钿金杯"璀璨呈现。 老铺黄金(06181)午后升6%，截至发稿，涨6%，报768港元，成交额7.94亿港元。 摩根大通研报指出，对老铺黄金的春节消费表现比市场更为乐观，原因是品牌权益提升、新产品推出、 吸引新客户、现有客户重复购买及金价走势有利。集团表现稳健下，应能缓解投资者对近期高基数效应 及金价波动下对消费者行为的担忧。认为其凭借系统性发展策略(如门店扩张审慎、直销模式及由精选/ 培训团队提供的差异化服务品质)最能从体验式增长中获益。 ...