挪威央行将利率维持在16年高位 承诺未来降息 智通财经5月8日电，挪威央行连续第11次会议上维持借贷成本不变，并重申计划于今年晚些时候开始放 松政策。挪威央行周四将存款利率维持在4.5%，为16年多以来最高水平，与市场预期一致。该行重 申，借贷成本将在"2025年期间"下调。由于此次会议为所谓的中期会议，官员们未发布新的经济预测或 利率展望。"未来贸易政策存在不确定性，"副行长Pal Longva在声明中表示。"这可能使利率展望朝不同 方向发展。"挪威央行在全球同行中独树一帜，多次推迟疫情后宽松政策的启动时间，这主要归因于其 能源丰富的经济韧性和克朗走软带来的通胀风险。围绕美国总统唐纳德·特朗普贸易政策影响的不确定 性，也支持了挪威央行保持观望的态度，这与美联储的立场相呼应。美联储周三维持借贷成本不变，并 表示不会仓促降息。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the international gold price experienced a rise and subsequent decline, closing at $3341.69 per ounce, with a drop of 0.67% [1] - The gold price opened at $3366.36 per ounce, reached a high of $3414.29, and a low of $3319.82 during the trading session [1] - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain interest rates unchanged, while highlighting the increasing risks of inflation and unemployment, which adds uncertainty to the U.S. economic outlook [3] Group 2 - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that current economic data has not fully reflected the impact of trade policies, with rising potential risks, particularly from Trump's tariff policies [3] - The gold price trend analysis showed that after the Fed's decision, the price fell from $3398 to $3363, aligning with previous market analysis [3] - The analysis suggests that the current trading range for gold is between $3200 and $3439, with a focus on whether the price can hold above the support level of $3292 [5]

挪威央行：自三月以来，挪威经济的发展基本符合预期。然而，贸易壁垒变得更加广泛，对未来的贸易 政策也存在不确定性。 ...

尽管特朗普在社交媒体上批评美联储"过于迟钝"，但市场分析普遍认为，美联储此次声明已释放出对滞胀风险的警惕信号。摩根士丹利财富管理首席经济策 略师Ellen Zentner指出，美联储已意识到关税政策可能拖累GDP增速至1.5%左右，同时推高通胀，这种"经济放缓+物价上升"的组合将迫使央行维持利率不 变，以避免政策冲突进一步恶化。 在经济前景不确定性加剧的背景下，美联储于5月8日宣布维持联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25%-4.5%不变，这一决策不仅延续了其谨慎的货币政策立场，更凸 显了当前全球经济格局中贸易政策对央行决策的深刻影响。ETO Markets分析团队指出，此次利率决议不仅是对短期经济数据的回应，更是对中期"滞胀"风 险的提前布局，而特朗普政府关税政策的不确定性，正成为这一风险的核心催化剂。 一、利率决策背后的"两难困境"：通胀与就业的平衡术 联邦基金利率作为美联储调控经济的关键工具，其维持不变的决定，直接反映了美联储在双重使命（控制通胀与促进就业）间的艰难权衡。鲍威尔在新闻发 布会上明确表示，当前经济数据尚未完全反映贸易政策的冲击，但潜在风险已显著上升——尤其是特朗普关税政策可能引发的"通胀上行+就业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, highlighting increasing risks related to rising unemployment and inflation [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The FOMC committee unanimously voted to keep the interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% [1] - The Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its balance sheet at the pace announced in the March meeting [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The committee noted that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has increased further [1] - Officials are monitoring the dual risks of high unemployment and high inflation, which they believe have both risen [1] Group 3: Trade Policy Impact - Trump's trade policies have introduced a wave of uncertainty across the economy [1] - Economists generally expect that comprehensive tariffs will lead to higher inflation and hinder economic growth, creating a conflict between the goals of price stability and maximum employment [1]

Group 1 - European retailers and consumer brands are shifting focus from the US to Europe and other markets due to anticipated price increases from US tariff policies, which are expected to depress consumer demand in the US [1] - Zalando, a German online fashion retailer, is actively expanding its European market presence and engaging with potential new customers [1][2] - Hugo Boss, a German high-end clothing brand, has moved its products manufactured in China to markets outside the US, citing a significant deterioration in US consumer spending due to economic uncertainty [4][6] Group 2 - Adidas, a German sportswear manufacturer, reported strong growth in Q1 but noted that uncertainty from US tariff policies is directly impacting company decisions [8] - The CEO of Adidas indicated that in a "normal world," the company could have raised its full-year revenue and operating profit forecasts, but current tariff uncertainties prevent such actions [10] - Market analysts believe that the direction of US trade policies remains unclear, posing significant external risks for global manufacturing companies [10]

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has surged significantly, reaching a high of $3387.05 per ounce, driven by bearish sentiment towards the US dollar and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][2]. Market Analysis - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, with a cumulative increase of approximately $150, indicating a robust bullish momentum after a period of consolidation [2]. - The key resistance level is identified at $3386 per ounce, which aligns with the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, suggesting that this point will be crucial for future price movements [4]. - The market is advised to monitor the support level at $3350 per ounce; a breach below this could lead to further declines, while maintaining above it may allow for continued upward movement [4][5]. Technical Indicators - The current trading strategy suggests a focus on buying on dips within the $3368-$3373 range, with a stop loss set at $3362 and a target of $3390-$3400 [6]. - The short-term support levels are identified at $3370-$3364, with stronger support at $3360, while resistance levels are noted at $3386 and $3400 [5][6].

近期黄金市场热度飙升，金价（XAU/USD）连续两日吸引避险资金涌入，周二亚洲时段攀升至近两周高点的 3381 - 3382 美元区域。ETO Markets 分析认 为，市场避险情绪主导金价走势，而未来美联储决议等关键事件将决定其后续方向。 避险情绪高企，金价强势攀升 贸易政策不确定性持续 全球贸易关系虽现缓和迹象，但特朗普贸易政策反复无常，如对海外电影征收 100%关税，打击全球贸易稳定性。尽管美国可能重启谈判，但特朗普暗示本 周或达成协议却未指明国家，市场忧虑难消。 地缘冲突不断升级 地缘政治局势紧张，俄乌冲突持续升级，乌克兰无人机袭击莫斯科致三大机场关闭；周日以色列联合美军空袭也门荷台达港，以回应胡塞武装攻击。这些事 件凸显黄金避险属性，支撑金价上涨。 避险情绪主导市场 本周二开始的 FOMC 会议是影响金价的关键事件。尽管美国服务业与就业数据强劲降低短期降息预期，但若美联储暗示年内仍有降息可能，金价有望进一 步上行。 美元走势与市场反应 市场策略师指出，即便美元买盘回升，黄金仍坚挺，表明市场对地缘政治担忧远超经济数据乐观情绪。投资者在复杂环境下，更倾向于将黄金作为避险资 产。 技术面：金价面临关键阻 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock indices ended a nine-day winning streak as investors reassessed former President Trump's latest tariff comments, leading to a resurgence in risk-averse sentiment with significant increases in safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Trump's proposal to impose a 100% tariff on foreign films negatively impacted market sentiment, particularly affecting entertainment stocks such as Netflix and Paramount Global, reigniting concerns over his overall trade policy stance [2] - Recent economic data showed mixed signals, with the ISM services PMI unexpectedly rising to 51.6 in April from 50.8 in March, while employment sub-indices shrank for the second consecutive month, raising doubts about the labor market fundamentals [2][4] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is surrounded by uncertainty, especially with no substantial progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, despite both sides expressing willingness to continue dialogue [4] - Market expectations suggest the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in the May meeting, with close attention on potential rate cuts in June or July, although rising trade risks are leading to a downward adjustment in expectations for recent easing policies [4][6] - The S&P 500 index is facing key technical resistance at the 200-day moving average, which historically serves as an important market inflection point, indicating persistent bearish sentiment in the market [6]

Core Insights - The recent U.S. employment report is viewed positively, highlighting the resilience of the labor market amidst a complex economic environment [1][3] Labor Market Analysis - The employment report indicates a strong labor market characterized by resilience rather than recession, with significant non-farm job growth and a stable unemployment rate [3] - Job vacancies remain steady, and hiring has not significantly slowed despite external uncertainties, with some sectors increasing recruitment efforts [3] - The leisure and hospitality sectors continue to absorb a large workforce, supported by consumer market demand, while the tech industry is driven by innovation despite global competition [3] Economic Outlook - Despite the positive employment data, potential risks from trade policies, such as tariffs and trade negotiation uncertainties, pose challenges to the economy [4] - The manufacturing and agricultural sectors, heavily reliant on imports and exports, are particularly vulnerable to trade tensions, which could lead to profit declines and potential layoffs [4] - Overall economic indicators for early April show strong fundamentals, including stable consumer confidence and retail sales growth, but the future economic outlook remains uncertain due to global economic slowdowns and trade policy risks [4] Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach until there are clear signs of labor market weakness [5] - Current strong labor market performance reduces the urgency for the Fed to implement rate cuts or other easing measures [5] - The impact of trade policies on the economy remains unclear, and premature actions by the Fed could exacerbate market uncertainties [5]