Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on September 17, which was seen as a victory for Trump after months of pressure [2][4] - Trump's expectation was for a larger cut of at least 50 basis points, as he had previously claimed that rates were at least 300 basis points too high [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's stance indicated that this rate cut was a "risk management" move and not a signal for extensive monetary easing, which contradicted Trump's desires [4][5] Group 2 - The voting results from the Federal Open Market Committee showed 11 members in favor of the 25 basis point cut, with only Trump's nominee voting against it, highlighting a lack of support for Trump's influence [5][7] - Market reactions post-announcement were mixed, with the Dow Jones rising slightly while the Nasdaq fell, indicating skepticism about the effectiveness of the rate cut [7][9] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with interest payments projected to consume a significant portion of the federal budget, raising concerns about long-term economic stability [9][14] Group 3 - The potential for a "debt spiral" is a concern, as increased borrowing to stimulate the economy could lead to higher interest payments, further straining the budget [12][14] - Inflation remains a persistent issue, with consumer prices rising due to tariffs, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's ability to manage monetary policy effectively [12][14] - Projections indicate that by 2025, U.S. GDP growth may slow to 1.6%, with interest payments on the national debt reaching a historic high as a percentage of GDP [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan has decided to maintain interest rates but unexpectedly announced the initiation of ETF sales, leading to a decline in Asian stock markets and halting the record global stock rally [1][2]. Group 1: Bank of Japan's Actions - The Bank of Japan's announcement to start an ETF selling plan is reminiscent of the early 2000s when it disposed of stocks purchased from banks [2]. - Despite maintaining interest rates, the asset sale plan has put immediate pressure on the Japanese market, causing the Nikkei 225 index to lose all earlier gains [2]. - The two-year Japanese government bond yield has risen to its highest level since 2008, indicating traders are pricing in a potential interest rate hike in October [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market saw Intel drop over 2%, while FedEx rose over 5% due to positive first-quarter earnings and future growth projections [4]. - European stock indices opened higher, with Germany's DAX30 up 0.24%, the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.03%, and France's CAC40 up 0.26% [4]. - The U.S. dollar index has rebounded from a low of 96.22 to 97.46, influenced by market interpretations of Federal Reserve policies [2][3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased last week, reversing the previous week's increase, which supported the rise of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [3]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 2 basis points to 4.131% [4][7]. - The Indian rupee faced pressure, nearing historical lows, with a trading rate of 88.30 against the dollar [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a new rate-cutting cycle by lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, which is expected to create new opportunities for Chinese assets in the medium to long term [1] Group 1: Market Reactions and Implications - The rate cut has triggered a global market response, with a consensus among fund companies that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to perform well despite short-term volatility [1][6] - The market exhibited a "good news priced in" reaction following the rate cut announcement, with fluctuations in the dollar index, U.S. Treasury yields, and stock indices [3] - Historical data suggests that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks typically perform well in the months following a Federal Reserve rate cut [7] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Fund companies are optimistic about the long-term outlook for Chinese assets, citing improved liquidity conditions and potential for foreign capital inflow into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [6][8] - Key investment directions identified include technology growth stocks, the Hong Kong market, consumer sectors, and gold assets, with a focus on sectors sensitive to interest rates and benefiting from global liquidity improvements [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while in the short - term, London gold and silver may enter an adjustment phase. The support for London gold is lowered to 3600, with strong support at 3500, and resistance at 3650 and 3700. The support for London silver is 41, with strong support at 40.5, and the upper resistance levels are 42, 43, and the 44 - 45 area. The operation strategy is to maintain the idea of buying on dips, and those who hold previous long positions should hold them cautiously [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, precious metal prices showed mixed performance. London spot gold slightly declined, while spot silver, platinum, and palladium slightly increased. The precious metal market is in a bullish vacuum period after the Fed's interest rate cut, and may enter a phased consolidation stage. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3678.2 per ounce, down 1.07%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $42.1 per ounce, down 0.12%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 826.82 yuan per gram, down 1.72%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 9835 yuan per kilogram, down 1.94%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years, causing precious metals to fall. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly increased. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 91.9%. For December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 0.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 15.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 83.9%. For January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 8.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 50.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 40.9%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 975.66 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 15.53 tons to 15,205.14 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 17.9 tons to 1203.5 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 4.1 tons to 1252.4 tons as of the week ending September 12 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week's data is generally light. On Friday, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision [4]. 3.4 Precious Metal Price and Inventory Data - Precious metal price data shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various precious metal contracts. Inventory data shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories, as well as the holdings of relevant ETFs [5][16]. 3.5 Other Market Data - Other market data includes the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [20].

Group 1 - The US dollar index continued to rebound, trading around 97.40 after the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut, indicating a "hawkish cut" characteristic as the yield curve steepened [1] - Following the Fed's rate cut, US Treasury yields rose significantly, with a notable increase in the short-term yields, enhancing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [1] - The dollar index initially dropped to a new low of 96.21 since February 2022 but reversed course after Powell's remarks, leading to a more than 1% increase and consecutive gains over two trading days [1] Group 2 - The dollar index (DXY) saw a substantial rise due to the increase in US Treasury yields, which reignited demand for the dollar [2] - The dollar index is approaching a critical resistance level, and if Treasury yields continue to rise without further weakness in labor data, the outlook for the dollar remains constructive [2] - A sustained breakthrough above 98.238 could signal a stronger upward trend for the dollar, especially with the Fed maintaining a cautious stance and persistent inflation data [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has been labeled as hawkish by the market, but the real impact comes from the subtle changes in the voting dynamics [2] - Only the new member Stephen Miran opposed the decision, advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, while previously dissenting hawkish members Waller and Bowman surprisingly voted in favor [2] - This shift in voting not only disrupts market expectations but also influences the betting odds for the next Fed chair, with Waller's odds dropping significantly and Miran's rising to the top [2] Group 2 - The support from Waller and Bowman alleviates fears that the Federal Reserve will be influenced by the White House, indicating that monetary policy decisions are guided by data rather than political pressures [3] - Their votes serve as a strong affirmation of the Fed's independence, demonstrating that there are decision-makers willing to bear reputational costs for making the right choices [3] - The 25 basis point cut is viewed as a technical adjustment, while the two supportive votes redefine the rules of the game, emphasizing that the Fed's authority is based on professional judgment rather than political fluctuations [3]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The report indicates that precious metal prices are undergoing high - level adjustments after a hawkish interest rate cut. In the medium - to long - term, the trend may be bullish, but in the short - term, London gold and silver face significant adjustment pressure. The report maintains a strategy of buying on dips and advises cautious holding of existing long positions [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - Wednesday saw significant intraday fluctuations in precious metal prices. London gold and silver closed with negative daily candlesticks, indicating short - term adjustment pressure. After the Fed's interest rate decision, although the market initially pushed up London gold prices, they quickly fell due to Powell's hawkish remarks. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3694.6 per ounce, down 0.82%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $41.995 per ounce, down 2.15%. SHFE gold 2512 contract closed at 837.64 yuan per gram, down 0.37%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 9933 yuan per kilogram, down 1.76% [2]. - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change percentages of SHFE, SGX, and CME gold and silver contracts, as well as the SHFE - TD gold and silver spreads and the CME gold - silver ratio [7]. 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 12.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 87.7%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 1.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 19%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 79.9%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 10.1%, a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 49.6%, and a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 39.8% [3]. - Long - term funds: SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 4.29 tons to 975.66 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 28.23 tons to 15189.61 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9.9 tons to 1221.4 tons, while SGX silver inventory increased by 4.1 tons to 1252.4 tons in the week ending September 12 [3]. 3. This Week's Focus - This week's data is relatively light. On Thursday at 19:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and meeting minutes. On Friday, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision. US President Trump will conduct a state visit to the UK [4]. 4. Inventory and Position Table - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change percentages of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as SPDR gold and SLV silver holdings [16]. 5. Other Market Data - The table presents the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change percentages of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [22].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is interpreted as slightly "hawkish," despite the absence of expected dissenting votes from two hawkish members [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, which led to significant market volatility before being classified as slightly "hawkish" [1]. - Only new member Stephen Miran voted against the decision, advocating for a 50 basis point cut, while Waller and Bowman, previously seen as dissenters, supported the cut [1]. Group 2: Implications of Votes - Waller and Bowman’s votes are seen as a defense of the Federal Reserve's independence, indicating a potential shift away from political influence in monetary policy [2][4]. - Their support for the rate cut, despite political pressures, suggests that the rationale for aggressive cuts is weaker than the government might want the public to believe [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC decision, Waller's odds of becoming the next Fed Chair significantly decreased, while Miran's odds surged to the top position due to his dissenting vote [3]. - The actions of Waller and Bowman are interpreted as a positive signal, reducing concerns about excessive political interference in future monetary policy [4].

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 9 月 18 日 [Table_Title] 矛盾纠结下的预防性降息 [Table_Title2] ——9 月美联储议息会议点评 [Table_Summary] 事件概述 北京时间 9 月 18 日凌晨 2 时，美联储公布 2025 年 9 月 FOMC 会议声明。相关点评如下： 主要观点 ► 美联储操作：如期降息 25BP，维持当前缩表节奏 美联储降息 25BP，重启降息周期。美联储 9 月议息会议宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 4.00%至 4.25% 之间（下调 25bp），符合 CME 期货价格隐含的市场预期。但本次会议在降息的同时，下调了明年的降息预期， 出现了所谓的"鹰派降息"。 缩表按原计划推进。此次 FOMC 会议仍表明会继续按之前节奏实施缩表，维持月度减持美国国债的上限在 50 亿 美元，月度减持抵押贷券(MBS)规模在 350 亿美元。 ► 议息会议声明：就业下行风险正在上升 ► 经济指标预测：上调经济预期、下调失业预期 此次美联储给出的经济指标预期较 2025 年 6 月发生了一些变化： 上调经济增速预期。其中，20 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and the fourth consecutive cut since 2024 [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that this rate cut does not signal the beginning of a long-term easing cycle, dampening market bullish sentiment [1][2] - The decision was characterized as a "risk management" cut, aimed at preemptively addressing potential economic slowdowns, which disappointed some traders [2] Group 2 - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. stock indices experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.57% to 46,018.32 points, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.33% to 22,261.33 points [3] - The dollar index initially dropped by 0.4% after the rate cut but later recovered to increase by 0.3% following Powell's press conference [3] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Fed regarding the need for further rate cuts this year, with varying opinions on whether to raise rates or cut them again [3][4] Group 3 - The Fed's projections for 2026 indicate a more hawkish stance, with officials expecting only one additional rate cut next year, which is less than the market's expectation of two to three cuts [4] - The dot plot from the Fed shows considerable divergence in views among officials regarding the future path of U.S. economic and monetary policy [4]